Tag: CRYPTOS FoxBusiness

Strategy Charts MSTR’s Performance Against Bitcoin

Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR) CEO Phong Le shared on Aug. 3 that MSTR outperformed bitcoin across every rolling four-year holding period since adopting its bitcoin strategy. The company compared annualized returns for investments made between August 2020 and August 2022, showing the stock generated stronger returns than bitcoin across every rolling four-year investment window.

Le stated:

“MSTR has outperformed $BTC in every four-year holding period since adopting the bitcoin Strategy. This is by design and aligns with our long-term objective.”

Rolling holding periods compare returns from many starting dates instead of relying on a single entry point, providing a broader view of long-term performance. Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle is often associated with halving events, making Strategy’s rolling-window analysis a different way to evaluate long-term returns.

Le’s comments also align with Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor’s view that institutional capital, exchange-traded funds, and corporate treasury adoption are reshaping bitcoin’s historical trading patterns. His recent comments describe a market increasingly driven by sustained demand rather than traditional four-year cycles.

Institutional Ownership Continues to Expand

Institutional investors continued adding MSTR shares during the first quarter, with 13 of Strategy’s 15 largest shareholders increasing their combined positions by 27%. Capital Group, Vanguard, Blackrock, Fidelity, and State Street ranked among the largest firms expanding their exposure, according to Le’s May 20 update on first-quarter institutional holdings.

Those positions contribute to broader indirect bitcoin exposure through mutual funds, pension plans, retirement accounts, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) serving millions of investors.

Investors have increasingly valued MSTR beyond the market price of its bitcoin holdings, reflecting Strategy’s ability to issue equity and preferred securities, raise capital efficiently, and use those proceeds to acquire additional bitcoin. The company argues those financing capabilities create value beyond the underlying treasury.

Second-Quarter Results Show Strategy’s Capital-Market Scale

In its second-quarter earnings release, Strategy reported holdings of 843,775 bitcoin as of July 27, a 4.5% year-to-date $BTC yield through July 26, and $17.06 billion raised through its capital programs during 2026.

The company’s financing model also carries balance-sheet and dilution risks alongside its potential to increase bitcoin exposure per share. Its latest filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) notes that changes in bitcoin prices, capital market conditions, financing costs, and future securities offerings could materially affect the company’s financial results and shareholders.

Investors can monitor $BTC Yield, $BTC Gain, bitcoin per diluted share, leverage, and net asset value premium to assess whether the company’s financing strategy is increasing bitcoin exposure over time. The latest performance metrics are updated alongside changes in the company’s bitcoin treasury and capital structure.

Bitcoin Sales Intensify Debate Over Preferred Financing

Following the second-quarter update, Strategy completed its third bitcoin sale of 2026 to meet obligations tied to preferred securities. The transaction reduced its treasury from 843,775 bitcoin to 842,138 bitcoin while preserving most of the company’s accumulated holdings.

That use of treasury assets has intensified scrutiny of a financing model built around preferred stock, equity issuance, and bitcoin-backed capital allocation. Economist Peter Schiff argues that selling bitcoin to fund preferred dividends transfers value away from MSTR shareholders, challenging management’s claim that diversified financing supports long-term treasury expansion.

Current obligations show how the company’s preferred securities can influence capital allocation even while it maintains a substantial bitcoin reserve. Preferred dividend payments are backed by a $3.75 billion reserve covering more than 2.1 years of dividends and interest. Strategy also authorized separate $1 billion repurchase programs for MSTR and its digital credit securities, while the MSTR program remained unused through July 26.

• Bearish sentiment: Polymarket shows rising odds of Bitcoin dropping below $60,000, prompting Markus’ one-word reaction.
• Mixed forecasts: Traders also see a chance of $BTC rising above $65,000 or $67,500, underscoring uncertainty.
• Market weakness: $BTC and Dogecoin continue to slide amid fading legislative momentum and weak corporate earnings.

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Dogecoin co-founder Billy Markus offered a brief but telling response to new bearish chatter surrounding Bitcoin, reacting with a single word that captured the mood of many traders watching the market drift lower. His comment surfaced as prediction markets showed rising expectations that $BTC could slip under $60,000 before August ends.

sigh

— Shibetoshi Nakamoto (@BillyM2k) August 3, 2026

Markus Reacts to Polymarket’s Bearish Odds

Markus, known as “Shibetoshi Nakamoto” on X, replied “sigh” to a Polymarket post highlighting a 59% chance that $BTC might fall below $60,000 this month. The platform shared a screenshot showing traders increasingly positioning for a downside move. Markus’ reaction echoed the fatigue felt across the market, where prolonged uncertainty has replaced the sharp swings that often define crypto cycles. He has recently described the current environment as “boring,” framing it as a typical bear phase rather than a moment of panic. That sentiment aligns with the flat price action seen across major assets, including Bitcoin, which has struggled to regain momentum.

Traders Split on August Price Scenarios

Polymarket’s odds shifted further at the time of writing, with the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $60,000 rising to 63%. Yet traders remain divided. The platform also shows a 42% chance of Bitcoin climbing above $67,500 and a 71% chance of it pushing past $65,000 in August. Additional downside levels are in play as well, including a 37% chance of Bitcoin falling below $57,500. These mixed signals underscore a market searching for direction, with participants weighing both macro pressures and fading enthusiasm around recent US crypto legislation.

Market Slump Extends Across Major Assets

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin traded down 0.68% to $62,707 after dipping to $62,210 intraday. The weekend brought further weakness, driven by disappointing earnings from Coinbase and Strategy, adding to concerns that speculative traders may be stepping back from riskier assets. Bitcoin is now down roughly 30% on the year, mirroring declines across several major cryptocurrencies. Dogecoin also slipped, falling 0.67% in the past day to $0.069 and dropping 4.35% over the week, reinforcing the broader cooling trend across the market.

BlackRock has unveiled two new tokenized money market assets as it further develops its digital asset strategy. It is now aiming to meet the standards set by the $GENIUS Act to be considered a reserve asset. The products have been previously submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in May and will be targeted at the growing crypto stablecoin market.

Indian banks are increasingly integrating blockchain into core banking operations to speed up payments, trade finance, and securities settlement while the country continues to keep cryptocurrencies at arm’s length. Instead of building around public crypto networks, lenders have largely focused on permissioned blockchain networks developed for regulated financial services.

The shift comes as banks gain practical experience from the RBI’s Digital Rupee pilot and expand the use of distributed ledger technology across more financial services. While blockchain is finding wider acceptance inside the banking system, policymakers continue to take a cautious approach to cryptocurrencies because of concerns over financial stability and regulation.

Banks Separate Blockchain From Cryptocurrency

Indian banks are using blockchain to solve practical business problems instead of expanding into cryptocurrencies. The technology is helping lenders cut paperwork, speed up trade finance and reduce the risk of document fraud or duplicate financing. Inland letters of credit, which have traditionally taken more than a week to process, can now move much faster on shared digital networks while giving all participants a clearer view of each stage of the transaction.

The RBI has consistently drawn a clear line between distributed ledger technology and cryptocurrencies. While supporting blockchain in regulated financial services, the central bank has warned that cryptocurrencies could threaten financial stability, weaken monetary policy and increase the risks of money laundering. It has also maintained support for policies “leaning towards prohibition” on banks’ exposure to crypto assets and privately issued stablecoins.

That cautious approach extends beyond the central bank. Reuters reported that government officials continue to favor tighter oversight of virtual digital assets even though India has yet to introduce a comprehensive crypto law. Cryptocurrencies have operated in a regulatory grey area since the Supreme Court overturned the RBI’s banking restrictions in 2020, but policymakers continue to weigh the potential benefits of innovation against concerns over financial stability.

Digital Rupee Gives Banks Practical Experience

The RBI’s Digital Rupee (e₹) pilot has become one of the country’s largest real-world tests of distributed ledger technology in payments. It introduced the wholesale pilot in October 2022 and rolled out the retail version a month later. Since then, the project has expanded steadily. By 2025 and into 2026, about 19 banks were participating in the retail pilot, which had attracted an estimated six to seven million users.

Customers of major lenders such as SBI, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and Bank of Baroda can use e₹ wallets to load, redeem and spend the digital currency. Beyond basic transactions, banks have experimented with programmable payments, offline transfers and government benefit disbursements. Those trials have helped banks understand how distributed ledger technology could support everyday banking.

The wholesale program has followed a different path. Instead of focusing on consumer payments, it has examined how banks settle transactions with one another and whether tokenized financial assets can be exchanged more efficiently.

Some of the work has also explored cross-border payment scenarios. As the trials have progressed, banks have built technical experience that can be applied to blockchain projects outside the Digital Rupee initiative, including future settlement and tokenization efforts.

Consortium Model Expands Enterprise Blockchain

India’s adoption of blockchain in banking has also expanded through industry-wide collaboration. In 2021, 15 major lenders formed the Indian Banks’ Blockchain Infrastructure Company (IBBIC) to develop shared digital networks for financial services. The organization was later renamed the Indian Banks’ Digital Infrastructure Company (IBDIC) as it expanded its work to trade finance, payments, lending and compliance.

One of its flagship projects digitizes the entire trade finance process, from issuing letters of credit and verifying documents to financing and settlement. Early pilot programs reduced processing times by as much as 75%, cutting transactions that once took eight or nine days to as little as two or three days. The platform has also lowered messaging costs while reducing fraud by assigning every transaction a unique digital identity.

ICICI Bank was among the first Indian lenders to deploy blockchain for trade finance. It further developed the TradeChain technology as a paperless platform for handling the Indian letter of credit process. Other big banks, like SBI, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and Bank of Baroda, still support IBDIC initiatives while being participants of the RBI Digital Rupee program.

However, the IBDIC consortium has moved forward beyond trade finance. In 2025, its financing system based on blockchain technology successfully passed the RBI Regulatory Sandbox. The platform transforms invoices issued by approved suppliers into digital tokens and enables the banks to offer better financing to micro, small and medium-sized enterprises working with larger companies.

Tokenization Emerges as the Next Phase

As banks gain experience with distributed ledger systems, attention is gradually shifting from payments toward tokenized versions of traditional financial assets. As part of that work, the RBI is testing tokenized certificates of deposit alongside wholesale Digital Rupee settlements. The trials are designed to examine how digital versions of traditional financial instruments could function within the country’s regulated banking system without depending on public cryptocurrencies.

Government officials have also recognized that the global financial system is changing. Speaking at the Kautilya Economic Conclave in October last year, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said stablecoins “are transforming the landscape of money and capital flows,” adding that countries may soon have “to make binary choices: adapt to new monetary architectures or risk exclusion.”

The RBI has taken a more guarded view. Reuters reported that internal documents prepared by the central bank warned that stablecoins could create parallel payment networks and weaken India’s financial system. The documents also recommended against introducing legislation that would legitimize cryptocurrencies. Union Minister Piyush Goyal has echoed that cautious approach, saying, “While there is no ban [on crypto], we don’t encourage it.”

Together, those positions illustrate India’s approach to financial innovation. Banks are moving ahead with blockchain, tokenization and central bank digital currency projects under regulatory oversight, while policymakers continue to keep cryptocurrencies outside the core of the country’s financial system.

Related: India’s Gen Z Is Fueling Record Crypto Adoption; Here’s How They’re Investing

Crypto analyst Luke Martin noted that Bitcoin’s volatility over the past 30 days has fallen below that of technology stocks, indicating a rare signal in the market.

According to Martin, Bitcoin’s realized volatility falling below that of the QQQ fund, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, stands out as a development seen only once or twice a year. The analyst stated that Bitcoin has remained unusually calm during a period when other assets have exhibited similarly sharp movements to the cryptocurrency market.

According to shared historical data, Bitcoin rose by an average of 20.58% over a seven-day period following 12 instances where this signal emerged. The average 30-day return after the signal was 141.81%, showing that Bitcoin gained value in all 12 instances examined.

Looking at longer-term data, the 60-day average return was recorded at 359.72%, and the success rate at 91.67%. In the 90-day period following the signal, all 11 events examined showed an increase, with an average return of 635.94%. In the 180-day period, all 10 events resulted in a positive outcome, with an average return of 731.96%.

Martin argued that similar periods in the past have favored Bitcoin bulls, describing the current low volatility as “the calm before the storm.”

However, it should be remembered that past performance does not guarantee future price movements and high ratios are based on a limited number of historical observations.

*This is not investment advice.

After momentarily surpassing one of its strongest usage milestones in recent months, on-chain payment activity on the $XRP Ledger has seen a sharp reversal. At the beginning of August, the daily payment volume between accounts surged above one billion $XRP, but within a day, it fell by about 90%, demonstrating how erratic network activity still is.

Does demand exist on the $XRP Ledger?

On-chain data from XRPL indicates that the volume of payments exceeded one billion $XRP on Aug. 1 before falling back to roughly 100 million $XRP. Although there are frequent sudden increases and decreases on the $XRP Ledger, these kinds of movements typically indicate significant institutional transfers, treasury operations, or exchange-related activity rather than long-term organic demand.

The dramatic decline does not necessarily mean that fewer people are using the network. Rather than marking the start of a new growth trend, it implies that the extraordinary spike was probably caused by a one-time event. On XRPL, isolated spikes in activity that momentarily inflate transaction metrics before swiftly reverting to their long-term averages have become a common occurrence.

That uncertainty is mirrored in price action. After failing to maintain a short-term rising trendline that had bolstered the recovery throughout late July, $XRP is currently trading at about $1.07. The 50-day EMA is still acting as overhead resistance at $1.10, but the asset also fell below its 26-day exponential moving average. Taken together, these moving averages are forcing prices into a more constrained range.

Big picture raises questions

Despite multiple attempts at recovery over the past month, $XRP is still trading far below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating that the general trend still favors sellers. A neutral picture is also painted by momentum indicators.

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The Relative Strength Index is close to 44, indicating minimal buying pressure without entering oversold territory. This implies that sellers have not yet gained total control, but it also leaves room for further downside in the event that support fails. The immediate support area is between $1.05 and $1.06. If that region is lost, $XRP may experience another shift toward psychological support at $1.00.

On the plus side, regaining the 50-day EMA would be the first significant technical advancement and might pave the way for a challenge to the 100-day moving average around $1.20. For the time being, the decline in payment volume highlights a recurring theme on the $XRP Ledger.

Large one-time transfers can generate eye-catching headline figures, but they are unlikely to change market sentiment or reverse $XRP‘s broader technical decline unless they result in consistently high network activity.

$XRP could be in for a volatile August with promising upside, according to crypto analyst Jay Nisbett.

He believes the token is more likely to move higher than lower this month. Notably, his outlook includes a rally into the $2 range before a sharp pullback.

At the time of writing, $XRP trades at $1.07. It is down 1.0% over the past 24 hours, 3.63% over the past week, and 5.78% over the past month. The token is also down 42% year-to-date, according to CoinMarketCap.

Several August Scenarios for $XRP

In a post on X, Jay Nisbett shared multiple projected price paths for $XRP. He said volatility is possible in both directions, but his overall bias is bullish.

According to Nisbett, $XRP is most likely to trade between $1.02 and the low-$1.30 range during August. From there, it could break into the mid-to-upper $1 range or even reach the low-$2 region.

He noted that any move into those higher levels would be short-lived. A rapid retracement could follow before the broader trend resumes.

Nisbett also said he relies heavily on his chart levels. Once they are plotted, he trusts them “almost blindly.”

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Nisbett’s charts highlight several technical levels that could shape $XRP’s price action throughout the month. His chart uses:

• White dotted lines for the trend-balanced price.
• Blue dotted lines for likely swing highs.
• Green dotted lines for likely swing lows.

He outlined four possible price paths, shown in different colors, but said $XRP will likely move somewhere between them instead of following one exact route.

In one scenario, $XRP climbs to $2.50 before pulling back. In another, it rises more modestly to around $1.60 before falling back to support levels.

Considering $XRP’s current price, these targets present a promising outlook for holders, with potential gains ranging from 49.53% to 134%.

Market Maker Theory Supports Bullish View

Beyond the technical setup, Nisbett also shared a psychological view of the market.

He argued that many traders are waiting for $XRP to return to $1.00 or below, believing it represents the safest buying opportunity. According to him, this hesitation could cause investors to miss the move if the asset never returns to that level.

Instead, he argues many investors may end up buying after $XRP has already climbed into the mid-$1 to $2 range. At that point, larger players could trigger a sharp pullback, catching late buyers off guard.

Nisbett described this as thinking “like a market maker,” implying that markets often move against prevailing retail expectations before establishing a sustained trend.

Although he expects price swings to remain high throughout August, Nisbett still believes $XRP is more likely to move higher in the near term.

$XRP Leverage Remains Low

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows that traders are using much less leverage on $XRP than they did during the strong rallies earlier in 2025.

On July 31, Binance’s open interest in $XRP stablecoin-margined futures fell to about $186 million, its lowest level since April 2025. Bybit recorded the highest open interest at roughly $229 million, while OKX stood at about $49 million.

Most leveraged $XRP trading is now happening on Bybit and Binance, which together account for nearly 89% of the open interest across the three exchanges.

Lower open interest suggests $XRP is trading with fewer leveraged positions than earlier this year. While this alone does not indicate the next price direction, it points to a less crowded derivatives market. Analysts typically evaluate open interest alongside funding rates, trading volume, liquidations, and spot-market demand to assess broader market conditions.

Crypto analyst Javon Marks believes Cardano may be following the same market structure that preceded its explosive 2020–2021 bull run.

In a recent analysis, Marks argued that $ADA is displaying a strikingly similar sequence of price movements, raising the possibility that the token is preparing for another major rally toward its previous all-time highs.

According to him, Cardano’s next significant move could send the asset to nearly $3, representing a gain of more than 1,300% from its current trading price of around $0.19.

Similarities Between $ADA 2018 and 2021 Cycles

The accompanying chart compares Cardano’s current price action with the market cycle that unfolded between 2018 and 2021.

During the previous cycle, $ADA plunged sharply after reaching its 2018 peak of $1.32 before establishing a long-term bottom. It then traded sideways for an extended period, forming a broad accumulation base around $0.02, highlighted by a blue horizontal arrow on the chart. After breaking out of that prolonged consolidation, Cardano entered a powerful bull market that lifted its price to an all-time high of $3.10 in September 2021.

The current cycle appears to be following a similar path. Upon peaking during the 2021 bull market, $ADA entered a prolonged correction characterized by a series of lower highs. More recently, the asset has traded within a descending structure, illustrated by a blue downward-sloping trendline.

According to the analysis, Cardano has now reached the lower end of that multi-year trendline, mirroring the point where it completed its previous accumulation phase before launching its historic breakout.

$2.90 Emerges as the Next Major Target for Cardano

Based on these similarities, Marks believes Cardano could climb through multiple resistance levels before eventually reaching a price target of $2.90. From its current level of $0.1823, that would represent a gain of roughly 1,490%.

The analyst’s projection suggests this move could unfold by early 2028 if $ADA continues to mirror its previous market cycle.

Analyst Maintains Long-Term Bullish Outlook

Cardano has struggled to reclaim its September 2021 all-time high of $3.10 after enduring a prolonged bear market. Nonetheless, several analyses have continued to forecast a long-term recovery, with the $2.90 region emerging as a widely discussed upside target within the Cardano community.

Marks has consistently maintained this bullish outlook. In September 2025, he projected that a falling wedge breakout could initially propel $ADA to around $1.20 before eventually driving the cryptocurrency to $2.91.

A month later, he reiterated his optimism, forecasting a rally toward $2.96 after identifying a confirmed breakout above a long-term descending trendline, accompanied by a developing pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

Now, the analyst has returned with a similar outlook, arguing that Cardano could once again mirror the price action that fueled its historic 2021 rally and eventually climb to $2.90.

Despite his continuous optimism, it is imperative to note that historical patterns do not guarantee future performance.