Tag: CRYPTOS FoxBusiness.

Bitcoin is showing renewed strength after a sharp rebound, signaling that buyers are stepping back in at key levels. With momentum building and price pushing higher, attention is now shifting toward the $79,000 resistance zone, where a breakout could confirm continued upside and open the door for a stronger rally.

Selling Pressure After Initial Reaction

Bitcoin saw an immediate response to yesterday’s developments, facing notable selling pressure as the market processed the news. Analyst Kamile Uray highlights that while the initial reaction was bearish, the possibility for a continued rally remains on the table, provided the immediate low of $73,371 is successfully defended.

However, a 4-hour candle close below this mark would likely trigger a deeper correction toward the $68,720 level, which represents the critical 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the most recent upward wave. Holding this support provides the foundation for a fresh leg up.

On the bullish side, a decisive close above $79,000 would signal a continuation of the broader uptrend toward much higher targets. Uray identifies a major resistance cluster between $98,000 and $107,000–$109,000. Should the price face a rejection at these elevated levels, traders should expect a return to the previous support zones, ranging from $73,371 to the $66,000 region.

Examining the daily timeframe, the $65,666 level serves as a pivot point. As long as Bitcoin maintains its position above this threshold, the overall structure remains skewed toward a potential rise.

A failure to hold the $65,666 level would shift the focus to lower support levels at $63,823, $62,433, and $60,000. The most critical warning comes at the $60,000 mark; a daily close below this psychological and technical barrier would likely extend the corrective phase significantly.

Bitcoin Bounces Strongly As Week Kicks Off

In his most recent update, analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted a relatively strong upward bounce for Bitcoin on Monday. This movement is particularly significant as it occurs during a period where markets typically trend toward a risk-off stance ahead of the weekly opening. The ability of Bitcoin to push higher against this cautious backdrop suggests underlying strength in current demand.

A key factor in this analysis is the recent decoupling from traditional safe-haven assets. While Bitcoin has shown resilience and upward momentum, gold has trended downward. Looking at the weekly outlook, the presence of a price gap at the $77,300 level remains a primary focal point for traders. Given the strength of the recent bounce and the existing technical vacuum toward that higher level, Bitcoin is expected to fill this gap and achieve new highs before the current week concludes.

Months have passed since David Schwartz officially retired from the position of CTO at Ripple around late last year. However, the Ripple veteran has remained extremely active since then.

His continued social presence concerning Ripple-related matters has sparked curiosity across the crypto community about whether or not Schwartz is still holding his position in the firm.

“I’m a board member,” Schwartz declared

After his retirement, Schwartz still holds the title of Ripple CTO Emeritus, sparking speculation about his engagements with the company.

On Monday, April 20, Schwartz clarified that he remains actively involved across multiple initiatives tied to Ripple and the $XRP Ledger.

Schwartz made the clarification after an X user questioned his position with sarcasm, asking if Schwartz had fully retired or was still contributing behind the scenes at Ripple.

Schwartz declared that he is still a board member at Ripple while outlining other engagements he has in relation to the firm.

According to Schwartz, he is still involved with the $XRP Ledger Foundation and advises $XRP-focused company Evernorth. He also mentioned that he talks to Ripple’s $XRP Ledger tech team as frequently as every two weeks.

Schwartz discusses asset collateralization risks

The question appeared sarcastic as it came after Schwartz joined the ongoing debate about asset collateralization risks.

While the debate raises concerns about whether certain digital assets are truly backed as claimed, Schwartz shared how to determine if an asset is fully collateralized.

Thus, curiosity about Schwartz’s professional status emerged following ongoing speculation. Nonetheless, his response has drawn the attention of the crypto community as it helped clarify the speculation.

Siren [$SIREN] rallied sharply over the past 24 hours, rising 17% at the time of writing. The move reflects more than just a short-term surge; it indicates a structural shift in positioning, with bearish bets unwinding and the directional bias tilting to the upside.

Shorts unwind as positioning flips

Derivatives data shows a clear contraction in market exposure even as price trends higher. According to CoinGlass, $SIREN’s Open Interest (OI) declined by roughly 15% to $7.59 million over the past day.

Under normal conditions, falling OI aligns with weakening prices and bearish sentiment. Here, the opposite occurs. Price expansion alongside declining OI suggests that traders, particularly shorts, are actively closing positions rather than being liquidated.

Liquidations totaled $267,430 over the same period, a modest figure relative to the scale of the move. This reinforces the view that the market is seeing voluntary exits, not forced deleveraging.

Positioning metrics support this shift. At press time, the Weighted Funding Rate relative to OI remained positive at 0.0320%, while the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio stood at 1.06. These indicators show that capital flow and execution volume now favor long exposure.

Range dynamics frame the next move

Price action continues to respect a defined trading range, with the latest rally originating from the lower boundary. This reaction strengthens the case for a continuation move toward higher levels within the structure.

A push toward the recent breakout zone would imply a potential 28% advance from current levels. A sustained move beyond that region could extend gains toward the 40% range.

Even a conservative move to the top of the current range represents a 16% upside.

However, historical price behavior within this range warrants caution. Previous approaches to the upper boundary have resulted in rejection and subsequent pullbacks. The same pattern could repeat if buying pressure weakens near resistance.

Momentum and inflows support continuation

Momentum and capital flow indicators continue to align with a bullish outlook.

At the time of writing, the Money Flow Index (MFI) read 60.46, placing it firmly in positive territory. This suggests that capital inflows remain intact despite a minor retracement in the past day.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reflected a shift in momentum. The histogram has faded from deep red to a lighter shade, indicating that bearish pressure is losing strength.

At the same time, the MACD line was on the verge of crossing above the signal line, a development typically associated with trend continuation to the upside.

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Final Summary

• $SIREN posts strong gains as short traders exit positions at scale.
• Momentum indicators point to building bullish strength, with 16%–40% upside still in play.

Bitcoin held above $76,000 on Monday, rebounding from overnight lows as the broader crypto market remained steady despite Iran war risks.

The largest cryptocurrency climbed about 2.4% over the past 24 hours, recovering from a dip below $74,000 earlier in the session. Ether (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL) and other major altcoins also mirrored bitcoin’s move, as the broad-market CoinDesk 20 rose 1.7%.

That resilience comes against a shaky macro backdrop. U.S. President Donald Trump said Sunday that American forces had fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, warning of further escalation while Tehran refuses to strike a deal. A fragile ceasefire is set to expire later this week.

Oil prices jumped 6% to near $90, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped modestly, down around 0.3%-0.4%.

Crypto equities were mixed. Coinbase (COIN) and bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) gained roughly 2%, while Circle (CRCL) and ether treasury Bitmine (BMNR) edged lower by 1%-2%.

“The fact that prices have not fully retraced despite new tensions suggests some genuine demand,” said Jasper De Maere, trader at Wintermute, pointing to recent spot ETF inflows as a supporting factor. Unlike earlier rallies this year, he said, the current move appears less driven by leverage.

That said, the path forward remains tied to geopolitics. A renewed ceasefire could push bitcoin back toward $80,000, while further escalation may keep markets under pressure.

For now, capital continues to concentrate in large-cap assets like bitcoin, De Maere noted, with riskier altcoins lagging, a pattern typical of market environments driven by macro headlines.

DeFi reels from $292 million KelpDAO hack

Elsewhere from the current price action, tensions are still high in the DeFi sector following the biggest crypto exploit of the year.

The $292 million KelpDAO hack cascaded across the market, as a vulnerability allowed the attacker to drain funds that were then used as collateral across lending protocols.

Because those assets were widely integrated into DeFi, the impact quickly spread, with users rushing to withdraw funds amid fears of bad debt and contagion.

Total value locked (TVL) across DeFi protocols fell by $14 billion over the past two days, according to DefiLlama data, even as asset prices remained steady.

DeFi TVL dropped to about $85 billion, its lowest level in a year and roughly 50% below October peaks. Aave, the largest lending protocol that was central in the exploit, saw around $10 billion in deposits withdrawn.

“There’s a tremendous risk-reward imbalance in DeFi,” David Shuttleworth from Anchorage Digital’s protocol team said. “Users will no longer accept the slightly higher (and sometimes lower) than risk-free rate they get by depositing in lending pools,” especially given the latest wave of exploits across protocols.

Read more: ‘DeFi is dead’: crypto community scrambles after this year’s biggest hack exposes contagion risk

BEIJING, China – The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has maintained its key benchmark lending rates unchanged for the eleventh consecutive month, signaling continued monetary policy stability amid global economic uncertainty. This decision keeps the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, marking the longest period of rate stability since the LPR reform implementation in 2019. Financial markets closely watched this announcement for signals about China’s economic management approach through 2025.

China’s PBoC Maintains Monetary Policy Consistency

The People’s Bank of China announced its latest rate decision today, continuing a pattern of monetary policy consistency that began in May of last year. Consequently, the central bank has kept both benchmark rates frozen since implementing a 10-basis-point reduction eleven months ago. This extended period of rate stability reflects several key economic factors currently influencing China’s policy decisions.

Firstly, China’s economic recovery continues to show mixed signals across different sectors. Secondly, global central banks maintain divergent monetary policy paths. Thirdly, domestic inflation remains well within the government’s target range. The PBoC’s decision therefore represents a balanced approach to supporting growth while maintaining financial stability.

Understanding the Loan Prime Rate Mechanism

The Loan Prime Rate serves as China’s de facto benchmark lending rate, replacing the previous benchmark lending rate system in 2019. Commercial banks submit their best lending rates to the PBoC monthly. The central bank then calculates the LPR as a weighted average of these submissions, excluding the highest and lowest figures.

• One-year LPR (3.0%): This rate serves as the reference for most corporate and household loans
• Five-year LPR (3.5%): This rate primarily influences mortgage pricing and long-term loans
• Transmission mechanism: Changes in LPR directly affect borrowing costs throughout the economy

This dual-rate structure allows the PBoC to implement targeted monetary policy. The central bank can influence specific sectors without applying broad changes across the entire economy.

Economic Context Behind Rate Stability

Several economic indicators support the PBoC’s decision to maintain current lending rates. China’s consumer price index increased by just 0.3% year-on-year in the latest reading. Meanwhile, the producer price index declined for the seventeenth consecutive month. These inflation metrics provide ample policy space for the central bank.

Industrial production growth accelerated to 6.7% year-on-year last month. Retail sales expanded by 5.5% during the same period. Fixed-asset investment grew by 4.2% in the first quarter. However, the property sector continues to face significant challenges despite recent government support measures.

Global Central Bank Policy Divergence

China’s monetary policy path increasingly diverges from major global central banks. The Federal Reserve maintains elevated interest rates between 5.25% and 5.50%. The European Central Bank recently began a cautious rate-cutting cycle. The Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy earlier this year.

This policy divergence creates several implications for China’s economy. Capital outflow pressures have moderated in recent months. The yuan exchange rate remains relatively stable against major currencies. Foreign exchange reserves continue to provide substantial policy buffers. The PBoC can therefore focus primarily on domestic economic conditions rather than external pressures.

Real Estate Sector Implications

The five-year LPR stability particularly affects China’s property market. Mortgage rates for new home purchases typically reference the five-year LPR with additional basis point adjustments. Maintaining this rate at 3.5% supports the government’s efforts to stabilize the housing market.

Local governments have implemented numerous support measures for the property sector. Many cities reduced down payment requirements for first and second homes. Some municipalities eliminated purchase restrictions entirely. Developers continue to receive targeted financing support through special lending facilities.

Monetary Policy Tools Beyond Interest Rates

The PBoC employs multiple policy instruments beyond benchmark interest rates. Reserve requirement ratios for commercial banks remain at historically low levels. Medium-term lending facility operations provide liquidity to the banking system. The central bank also uses relending and rediscount facilities for targeted sector support.

These tools allow for precise monetary policy implementation. The PBoC can support specific economic sectors without broad stimulus measures. This approach minimizes potential financial stability risks while addressing economic weaknesses.

Future Policy Direction Signals

Financial analysts generally expect continued monetary policy stability through 2025. Most economists predict the PBoC will maintain current lending rates through year-end. However, the central bank retains flexibility to adjust policy if economic conditions change significantly.

The government’s annual growth target of around 5% remains achievable with current policy settings. Additional fiscal measures may complement monetary policy if needed. Infrastructure investment continues to support economic activity. Consumption stimulus policies show gradual effectiveness.

Conclusion

The People’s Bank of China’s decision to maintain key lending rates for the eleventh consecutive month reflects careful economic management amid global uncertainty. China’s PBoC demonstrates policy consistency through the Loan Prime Rate mechanism while retaining flexibility through other monetary tools. This approach supports economic stabilization efforts while minimizing financial risks. The central bank will likely continue monitoring domestic and international developments closely as it guides monetary policy through 2025.

FAQs

Q1: What are China’s current Loan Prime Rates?
The People’s Bank of China maintains the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, unchanged for eleven consecutive months.

Q2: How does the LPR affect mortgage rates in China?
Most new mortgages in China reference the five-year LPR, currently at 3.5%, with commercial banks adding additional basis points based on individual borrower risk assessments.

Q3: Why has the PBoC kept rates unchanged for so long?
The central bank maintains rate stability due to moderate inflation, mixed economic recovery signals, and the need to support specific sectors without broad stimulus that could create financial risks.

Q4: How does China’s monetary policy compare to other major economies?
China’s monetary policy currently diverges from major Western central banks, with the PBoC maintaining stability while others either keep rates high or begin cautious cutting cycles.

Q5: What tools does the PBoC use besides interest rates?
The central bank employs multiple instruments including reserve requirement ratios, medium-term lending facilities, and targeted relending programs to implement precise monetary policy.

Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, in his new analysis evaluating Bitcoin’s recent rise, stated that the market is at a critical juncture. Cowen noted that Bitcoin has climbed to the “bear market resistance band” (21-week EMA) levels, emphasizing that this region will be decisive for the market’s direction.

Bitcoin’s price pulled back from $78,361, coming very close to the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently around $78,415. Cowen noted that the initial reaction from this level doesn’t yet signify a definitive “rejection,” recalling that in the past (particularly in 2023 and 2024), a real breakout could come several weeks after a wick was placed above this band.

In his analysis, Cowen drew attention to historical cycles, particularly highlighting parallels with Bitcoin’s performance during US midterm election years. He noted a pattern similar to 2018, where Bitcoin bottomed out in April but maintained that level above February’s, suggesting that this could indicate short-term strength lasting until the end of April.

He stated that the FED meeting and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decisions could trigger this “strong stance” narrative in the market.

If Bitcoin manages to break through the bear market resistance band, the next and biggest obstacle, according to Cowen, will be the 200-day moving average. The analyst noted that in past bear markets (2014, 2018, and 2022), this level acted as an insurmountable wall, and that sustained trading above this line is necessary for the current rally to transform into a lasting bull market.

Despite the short-term rallies, Cowen maintains his macro perspective. He argues that the current rise could be a “counter-trend rally” and that Bitcoin is highly likely to fall to lower levels later in the year.

The analyst believes we are in a phase where cryptocurrencies continue to lose value against other markets such as stocks, gold, and the energy sector.

*This is not investment advice.