Category: Business

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

If macro worries tied to the Iran conflict weren’t enough, new research has revived what might be seen as an existential threat to bitcoin , quantum computing.

A paper from Google suggests breaking the Bitcoin blockchain’s cryptography with quantum computers could require fewer than 500,000 qubits, a fraction of previous estimates. A separate paper by Caltech and quantum startup Oratomic suggests a system with around 26,000 qubits could break the encryption standard that secures the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains, in about 10 days. (“Qubits” are considered the processing power units of quantum computers.)

A quantum hack would compromise the core tenets of crypto, namely “trust the code” and the “hard money” value proposition, according to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. About 25%-30% of the total bitcoin supply is already vulnerable to future quantum computing attacks.

While these attacks remain theoretical, according to Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb, they put a deadline in place: The network may need to upgrade to quantum-safe technology by around 2029.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value has already pulled back to $66,250 from the high of over $68,000 reached during Asian trading hours. This comes as demand-side conditions appear weak and real or inflation-adjusted returns on bonds rise, disincentivizing investment in risky and emerging technologies such as bitcoin.

While the broader market followed bitcoin lower, one token stood out. QRL, the native cryptocurrency of the Quantum Resistant Ledger, has surged 40% in 24 hours, hitting a high of $1.62. The token’s market cap was just over $127 million at the time of writing.

QRL describes itself as “an externally audited enterprise-grade blockchain platform secure today from the quantum computing advances of tomorrow.”

Unlike Bitcoin, which relies on elliptic curve cryptography that makes it vulnerable to quantum attacks, QRL uses a quantum-safe signature scheme called XMSS (eXtended Merkle Signature Scheme).

XMSS is a post-quantum cryptography algorithm recognized by standards bodies such as NIST for its resistance to quantum attacks. By design, XMSS generates one-time signatures that are extremely hard for quantum computers to crack, making QRL theoretically “future-proof” against quantum threats.

The takeaway: Projects like QRL could draw more attention and potentially gain market value as concerns about quantum threats grow. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
  • March 31: FTX Recovery Trust to distribute about $2.2 billion to creditors.
• Macro

• March 31, 9:00 a.m.: U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index YoY for January (Prev. 1.4%)
• March 31, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. Chicago PMI for March (Prev. 57.7)
• March 31, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March (Prev. 91.2)
• March 31, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. JOLTS job openings for February (Prev. 6.946M)

• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Stake DAO $CRV and BAL are voting on their bi-weekly gauge to allocate $CRV and BAL inflation across various liquidity pools. Voting ends March 31.
  • SuperRare DAO is voting to consolidate its treasury management under the RareDAO Foundation by migrating remaining balances and officially concluding its legacy Network Engagement and Grants programs. Voting ends March 31.
  • Aventus DAO is voting to simplify AVT emissions to a flat daily rate, increase the node staking requirement, and replace ongoing fees with an upfront appchain token allocation. Voting ends March 31.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches
  • March 31: edgeX (EDGE) token generation event to occur.
  • March 31: WorldLand (WL) to be listed on KuCoin, Gate, and others.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Day 3 of 3: Tokenize! LATAM 2026 (San Juan, Puerto Rico)
• Day 2of 4: EthCC (Cannes, France)
• Day 1 of 2: Chainalysis Links (New York City)

Market Movements

• $BTC is down 0.82% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $66,053.74 (24hrs: -2%)
• $ETH is down 0.31% at $2,015.51 (24hrs: -1.84%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.1% at 1,893.79 (24hrs: -2.15%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 2.76%
• $BTC funding rate is at 0.0018% (2.0093% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 100.44
• Gold futures are up 0.9% at $4,598.60
• Silver futures are up 3.59% at $73.11
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.58% at 51,063.72
• Hang Seng closed up 0.15% at 24,788.14
• FTSE is up 0.69% at 10,197.55
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.48% at 5,568.53
• DJIA closed on Monday up 0.11% at 45,216.14
• S&P 500 closed down 0.39% at 6,343.72
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.73% at 20,794.64
• S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged at 31,934.94
• S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 3,475.76
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.8 bps at 4.324%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.85% at 6,442.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.8% at 23,323.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.91% at 45,880.00

Bitcoin Stats

• $BTC Dominance: 58.58% (-0.06%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03054 (0.66%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 996 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $31.78
• Total fees: 2.5 $BTC / $167,768
• CME Futures Open Interest: 102,450 $BTC
• $BTC priced in gold: 14.6 oz.
• $BTC vs gold market cap: 4.46%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows daily swings in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV.
• The index remains stuck in a sideways grind, pointing to market calm and low volatility.
• Traders should watch for a breakout against the backdrop of the latest quantum-computing threat, as it would signal panic and increased price turbulence.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $160.79 (-0.22%), +0.47% at $161.54 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $89.91 (-4.00%), +0.12% at $90.02
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.15 (-4.72%), +1.52% at $17.41
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.27 (-3.37%), +0.69% at $33.50
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.80 (-2.74%), -0.13% at $7.79
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.83 (-7.58%), unchanged in pre-market
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.91 (-7.70%), +1.01% at $14.05
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.18 (-5.54%), +0.73% at $8.24
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $32.33 (-8.13%), +2.78% at $33.23
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.20 (-4.32%), +2.74% at $6.37

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $121.44 (-3.64%), +0.45% at $121.99
• Strive (ASST): closed at $9.37 (-4.92%), +1.18% at $9.48
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.01 (-0.50%), unchanged in pre-market
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.95 (-5.10%), +0.63% at $0.95
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.04 (-5.45%)

ETF Flows

Spot $BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $69.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $55.98 billion
• Total $BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot $ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.56 billion
• Total $ETH holdings ~5.7 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Giant oil tanker off Dubai hit by Iranian strike after Trump’s latest threats (Reuters): Iran set ablaze a fully loaded crude oil tanker off Dubai after ​President Donald Trump said the U.S. would obliterate Iran’s energy plants and oil wells if it does not open the Strait of Hormuz.
• Breaking Bitcoin with quantum may be easier than thought, with Taproot partly to blame, Google says (CoinDesk): In a new whitepaper, researchers found that cracking the cryptography used by Bitcoin and Ethereum could require fewer than 500,000 physical quantum bits, or qubits, well below the “millions” often cited in recent years.
• US gasoline tops $4 for first time since 2022 on Iran war (Bloomberg): The U.S.-wide average retail price for regular unleaded gasoline rose to $4.018 a gallon. Prices have surged more than $1 since the start of the war.

Keyrock, a digital asset services provider headquartered in Brussels, has wrapped up a significant Series C funding round. The company’s valuation has now surged to an impressive $1.1 billion. Leading the financing effort is SC Ventures, the investment arm associated with banking giant Standard Chartered. Previous investor Ripple, recognized for its blockchain infrastructure solutions, also participated in this round. This pivotal financing marks a crucial step in solidifying Keyrock’s stronghold in the digital currency arena.

Where Will New Funds Take Keyrock?

The influx of new capital is set to bolster Keyrock’s financial health, broaden their range of services, and explore potential acquisitions. Keyrock executives are optimistic that the ongoing round may eventually amass up to $100 million in investments. While focusing on enhancing financial robustness, the company is simultaneously scouting for new opportunities in the fast-evolving digital asset market.

By harnessing this financial boost, Keyrock seeks to cement its market presence and fuel expansion efforts. The firm is charting a course to diversify offerings and explore new geographic realms. A blend of organic development along with strategic takeovers forms the core of Keyrock’s growth strategy across varied business arenas.

“By 2026, our goal is to expand our service range, increase our clientele, and amplify our global outreach, reinforcing our leadership in the industry,” stated Keyrock’s CEO, Kevin de Patoul.

What Does Keyrock’s Operational Blueprint Look Like?

Launched in 2017, Keyrock maintains a presence on over 80 trading platforms, both centralized and decentralized. The company, with a global team exceeding 200 employees, provides market making, asset management, OTC trading, and options services. This diverse portfolio caters to a wide spectrum of institutional and individual participants within the cryptocurrency sector.

Keyrock positions itself as a vital connector between conventional finance and the burgeoning cryptocurrency landscape. Upholding its vision, the firm tailors solutions for corporate as well as private investors, striving to strengthen its prominence within the dynamic fintech realm.

Last September saw Keyrock expand its horizon by acquiring Turing Capital in Luxembourg, symbolizing its foray into asset and wealth management. This acquisition broadened its service palette, appealing to both institutional entities and affluent individuals. Subsequently, Keyrock launched an exclusive Asset and Wealth Management division.

Strategic acquisitions remain integral to Keyrock’s growth narrative. These ventures are crafted to augment the company’s suite of innovative digital asset solutions and elevate its stature in the industry’s broader spectrum.

As Keyrock embarks on this transformative journey, its strategic choices signify its unwavering commitment to maintaining a leadership stance in the world of digital finance.

The quantum computing power required to break the encryption that secures blockchains continues to decline, at least in theory, raising the question of whether the industry can migrate to quantum-resistant platforms before they become vulnerable at an affordable cost.

A new paper by Caltech and quantum startup Oratomic suggests a system with around 26,000 qubits could break ECC-256, the encryption standard that secures the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains, in about 10 days. RSA-2048, used by financial institutions to secure their Web2 platforms, is more challenging, they found.

The researchers found the cryptography protecting bitcoin and ether (ETH) wallets could be broken using as few as 10,000 physical qubits, collapsing prior estimates that until this week still ran into the hundreds of thousands.

Qubits are the basic units of quantum computers, similar to bits in traditional machines. They are a measure not of speed, like gigahertz or teraflops, but rather reflect the scale of the system, closer to the number of cores or transistors in a chip.

The paper, posted Monday to the arXiv preprint server, landed alongside a Google Quantum AI whitepaper that pegged the threshold at fewer than 500,000 physical qubits.

The two are closely connected: the Oratomic team uses Google’s quantum circuits designed to break 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography, the system securing bitcoin and ether wallets, and shows a neutral-atom setup — laser-controlled atoms acting as qubits — could run them with about a 50th of the qubits Google estimated.

Together, the papers mark one of the sharpest compressions yet in the timeline of quantum threats. Estimated requirements for running Shor’s algorithm, the quantum method for breaking public-key encryption, have now fallen five orders of magnitude in two decades, from roughly 1 billion physical qubits in 2012 to about 10,000 today.

Those gains translate into clearer timelines for potential attacks.

Under the paper’s assumptions, a system with around 26,000 qubits could break ECC-256, the encryption standard that secures the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchain, in about 10 days, effectively allowing a quantum computer to derive private keys and take control of funds.

RSA-2048, used by financial institutions to secure their web2 platforms, would require closer to 102,000 qubits and roughly three months in a highly parallelized setup. Elliptic curve cryptography is more exposed because it achieves comparable security with smaller keys, making it easier work for a quantum machine.

That roughly 10-day window makes the rapid “on-spend” attack outlined in Google’s paper, where a quantum computer cracks a key in minutes and front-runs a live bitcoin transaction, unlikely under these assumptions.

It does little, however, to reduce the longer-term risk to funds already sitting in vulnerable addresses, including an estimated 6.9 million BTC tied to early wallets and reused addresses.

That framing comes with caveats. All nine authors are shareholders in Oratomic, with six employed by the company, positioning the paper as both a scientific result and a roadmap for its hardware approach.

The direction, however, is becoming harder to ignore. The question is no longer whether quantum systems can break crypto, but whether the industry can migrate before the cost of doing so collapses further.

The crypto market exhibited signs of volatility on Tuesday, with bitcoin spiking to $68,300 shortly after midnight UTC before tumbling back to $66,500.

The initial spike was spurred by reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was willing to end the war in Iran without the Strait of Hormuz being opened. The optimism faded after Israeli officials said they were prepared to “keep operating for weeks to come.”

The war, now in its 32nd day, has sent energy prices surging, with Brent crude trading around $107 per barrel, leading to inflation concerns and widespread risk-off sentiment.

Crypto, while being relatively resilient throughout March, is beginning to show signs of weakness after bitcoin failed to rise above $75,000 on two occasions.

U.S. equities diverged from the crypto market on Tuesday, with Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures both adding 0.8%.

Derivatives Positioning

• Cumulative industry-wide crypto futures open interest (OI) dropped over 3% to $103.79 billion in 24 hours, continuing the risk-off trends observed throughout the first quarter. The tally has declined by over 18% since the start of the year.
• OI has declined across BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP futures, indicating capital outflows from the major cryptocurrencies. Other tokens, such as $BCH, AVAX and LTC, have seen double-digit percentage declines in open interest.
• Privacy-focused ZEC stands out, with its futures market exhibiting bullishness. The token’s OI rose more than 3% alongside mildly positive funding rates and cumulative volume delta. This combination points to an increasing demand for bullish exposure.
• At the other end is DOGE, which has the most negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta among major tokens.
• Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has ticked up to 58% from 54% late last week, topping its 50-day average to suggest more gains ahead. This means potential for increased price turbulence.
• Ether’s volatility index remains dead flat between 70% and 80% for the seventh straight day.
• On Deribit, bitcoin risk reversals out to the June end expiry show a strong bias for put options. These downside hedges trade at an 8 to 10 volatility-point premium to calls. Meanwhile, bearishness is relatively measured in ether.
• The $60,000 bitcoin put remains the most popular play with a total open interest of $1.50 billion.

Token talk

• The altcoin market suffered more than bitcoin on Tuesday, with tokens like NEO, HBAR and PUMP losing between 2.6% and 3.3% since midnight UTC.
• A select few tokens are bucking that trend, including $BCH and AI-related coins, which are in the black.
• CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator is currently printing 51/100, reflecting relative strength over the past few weeks in spite of Tuesday’s selloff.
• However, the next major move will still be determined by bitcoin and whether it can either break above $75,000 or below $62,000. Altcoins typically perform well when bitcoin consolidates, but lose ground during big swings.

Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, is preparing to enter the prediction market.

According to recent news, Binance Wallet has announced the launch of its prediction market service. With this move, Binance is testing an in-app prediction market feature and joining the growing list of cryptocurrency exchanges venturing into this new sector.

Binance Wallet announced in an official statement that it will be sourcing features from third-party providers and has partnered with Predict.fun, a protocol running on the $BNB Smart Chain, to integrate prediction markets into Binance Wallet. Accordingly, a prediction market will be launched with Predict.fun acting as the provider.

Users will be able to participate in various bets created on Predict.Fun, a decentralized protocol based on $BNB Smart Chain (BSC). This feature will allow users to bet on future outcomes in areas such as sports, economics, world events, culture, and cryptocurrencies.

All transactions are conducted using Tether (USDT). Service may be restricted depending on local regulations.

With the new feature, users will need to create a separate, dedicated forecasting account to trade on event contracts, distinct from their spot trading accounts.

However, it remains unclear when Binance will officially roll out this feature or in which jurisdictions it will be available.

Binance’s move comes at a time when many major global cryptocurrency exchanges are entering the prediction market. As a reminder, in January Coinbase partnered with Kalshi and expanded its prediction market service to users across the US. Meanwhile, in February, Crypto.com launched an independent prediction market platform called OG.

*This is not investment advice.

The cryptocurrency world is discussing not so much Bitcoin’s price movements, but rather the intriguing paradox between institutional adoption and regulatory pressures.

Appearing on The Wolf Of All Streets, Alex Thorn stated that global banks are facing the “Innovator’s Dilemma,” suggesting they are conducting a strategic “delay” operation.

According to Thorn, giant institutions like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are simultaneously establishing their own crypto custody services and blockchain-based payment systems, while also creating legal obstacles to stifle the industry through their lobbyists in Washington.

Thorn summarizes the situation with these words: “Banks are currently both building things and obstructing the process through their lobbyists. This is actually a clever strategy: They are slowing down innovation and buying time to integrate their own products before advanced technologies displace them.”

Thorn notes that despite Bitcoin being in the $70,000 range, there is a “bear market feeling” in the market, attributing this to the complacency that comes with success.

Thorn says that individual investors are disappointed, while institutions are quietly and steadily continuing to enter the market, noting that the gap between these two groups has widened more than ever before.

Thorn predicts that the biggest future surge may come not from politicians, but from “Autonomous Agents.” Citing research, Thorn notes that autonomous AI tools tend to prefer stablecoins for payments and Bitcoin for savings and value preservation.

Thorn argues that AI could become one of the biggest players in the Bitcoin economy, saying, “It’s very easy to explain to a rational machine why it should prefer a currency that cannot be seized and that has no sovereignty.”

*This is not investment advice.

Strategy reported no bitcoin purchases or equity sales in its latest SEC filing, reinforcing disciplined capital management while maintaining a massive crypto position and spotlighting high-yield, low- volatility instruments within its treasury strategy.

Strategy Bitcoin Holdings and SEC Filing Activity Pause

Strategy Inc. filed Form 8-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on March 30, 2026, reporting no bitcoin purchases and no equity sales last week. The disclosure confirms no activity under its at-the-market program while continuing its regular reporting on treasury movements.

The filing presents the update as part of ongoing transparency rather than a shift in capital allocation. Strategy stated:

“On March 30, 2026, Strategy Inc. announced that, during the period between March 23, 2026 and March 29, 2026, Strategy did not sell any shares under its at-the-market offering program and did not purchase any bitcoin.”

The update reflects the company’s established practice of providing consistent visibility into both equity issuance and digital asset activity.

Saylor Highlights STRC Performance as Strategy’s Bitcoin Reserves Remain Central to Balance Sheet

Over the weekend, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor posted on social media platform X, sharing volatility data for STRC rather than the bitcoin-related chart he has previously used in connection with purchase updates. He wrote that STRC recorded lower volatility than all major asset classes and S&P 500 constituents over a 30-day period while delivering an 11.5% dividend yield, with the dataset placing STRC at about 2% volatility compared with bitcoin at 50% and higher levels across equities, commodities, and bond-linked exchange-traded funds.

Balance sheet figures reinforce the magnitude of the company’s digital asset holdings and cost basis. Strategy noted in its SEC filing:

“As of March 29, 2026, Strategy holds approximately 762,099 bitcoin that were acquired at an aggregate purchase price of $57.69 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $75,694 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.”

The data illustrates continued reliance on bitcoin as a core treasury asset while maintaining transparency through regular filings.

FAQ 🧭

• What did Strategy disclose in its latest SEC Form 8-K filing?
  Strategy reported no bitcoin purchases or equity sales for the specified week.
• Does the lack of activity signal a change in Strategy’s bitcoin strategy?
  The company indicated the update reflects routine transparency, not a strategic shift.
• How does STRC compare to bitcoin in terms of volatility and yield?
  STRC shows significantly lower volatility while offering an 11.5% dividend yield.
• Why does Strategy’s bitcoin position remain important for investors?
  The firm’s large bitcoin holdings continue to anchor its treasury model and market valuation.