Category: Business

Google just told the crypto industry the threat is closer than anyone priced in. The industry, for once, is listening.

A whitepaper published late Monday by Google’s Quantum AI team found that breaking the 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography protecting bitcoin and Ethereum wallets could require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits (a unit of computation in quantum systems), roughly a 20-fold reduction from previous estimates that placed the requirement in the millions.

The paper also described how a quantum computer could crack bitcoin private keys in about nine minutes once a transaction exposes a public key, giving an attacker a 41% chance of beating bitcoin’s 10-minute confirmation window.

The research landed like a bomb across online crypto circles. Not because it says quantum computers can break bitcoin today — they can’t — but because it dramatically compresses the timeline for when they might.

“We are no longer looking at mid-2030s, we could have quantum computers of this scale by the end of the decade,” said Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly, on X. “All blockchains need a transition plan ASAP. Post-quantum is no longer a drill.”

Qureshi pointed to an unusual detail in Google’s disclosure. The team did not publish the actual quantum circuits. Instead, they released a zero-knowledge proof that verifies the circuits exist without revealing how they work. “This is very atypical, showing Google thinks this is serious,” he said.

Justin Drake, an Ethereum Foundation researcher who joined the Google paper as a late co-author, said his “confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly,” estimating at least a 10% chance that a quantum computer recovers a ‘secp256k1’ private key from an exposed public key by that date.

Drake noted the optimized quantum circuit is “just 100 million Toffoli gates, which is surprisingly shallow,” and that on a superconducting platform, the total runtime would be roughly 1,000 seconds.

“Low-hanging fruit is still being picked, with at least one of the Google optimizations resulting from a surprisingly simple observation,” Drake added. “AI was not yet tasked to find optimizations.”

While human researchers are still finding straightforward improvements, the floor for the number of qubits needed hasn’t been reached. Drake said logical qubit counts “could plausibly go under 1,000 soonish.”

Security engineer Conor Deegan, whose published research was cited in the Google paper, offered one of the most technically detailed responses. He flagged a pattern in which the paper surfaces across multiple chains: quantum computation acts as a one-time cost that produces indefinitely reusable classical exploits.

Ethereum’s ‘KZG’ trusted setup, Zcash’s ‘Sapling’ protocol, and Litecoin’s ‘MimbleWimble’ all embed elliptic curve hardness into fixed public parameters that only need to be broken once.

“Deploying new cryptographic infrastructure on ECDLP curves is now indefensible given these resource estimates,” Deegan said.

The paper estimates roughly 6.9 million bitcoin, about one-third of the total supply, sit in wallets where public keys have already been exposed. That includes 1.7 million $BTC from the network’s early years, including Satoshi Nakamoto’s (the mysterious creator of the Bitcoin network), as well as additional funds affected by address reuse.

CoinDesk reported earlier Monday that bitcoin’s 2021 Taproot upgrade, which was designed to enable more efficient, private transactions, also exposed public keys on the blockchain by default, a technical move that now carries quantum risk.

That figure dwarfs CoinShares’ February estimate that only about 10,200 $BTC is concentrated enough to cause “appreciable market disruption” if stolen. Google’s methodology counts all exposed keys, not just large balances.

The Bitcoin vs Ethereum divide

The reaction split along familiar lines. Ethereum’s preparation drew praise. Bitcoin’s lack of it drew alarm.

“You can think of q-day as Y2K but real,” said well-followed crypto investor only known as ‘McKenna,’ managing partner at Arete. “People should give thanks to the Ethereum Foundation for being early and leading this research. The messy part about this is Bitcoin. The lack of urgency and the consensus issue on what to do with vulnerable coins.”

The Ethereum Foundation launched pq.ethereum.org last week with eight years of post-quantum research, more than 10 client teams shipping weekly devnets, and a multi-fork migration roadmap.

Drake, who co-authored the Google paper, is part of that same Ethereum team — a direct link between the researchers quantifying the threat and the developers building the defense.

Eli Ben-Sasson, co-founder of StarkWare, urged the Bitcoin community to “strengthen initiatives like BIP 360,” a proposal that would introduce quantum-resistant wallet formats allowing voluntary migration.

“Saying that quantum computers are coming is not FUD,” Ben-Sasson said. “FUD is claiming Bitcoin can’t adapt. It can adapt. Just need to start working on these solutions today.”

Bitcoin advocate Bit Paine offered a measured take. “I still think roughly 10 years is the more likely timeframe, but I assign an uncomfortably high likelihood that we see something disruptive within five years. High enough that action within the next one to two years is prudent.”

The element that shifted his thinking was the “persistent non-linearities in QC progress and the shroud of secrecy underlying this research.” When estimates of physical qubits drop by orders of magnitude, he said, “we may not have much of a window between ‘quantum is on a trajectory to disrupt bitcoin’ and ‘secp256k1 is broken.’”

Paine added a national security dimension. “A CRQC may be developed in stealth mode and drop out of seemingly nowhere.”

Google’s decision to use a zero-knowledge proof rather than publish the circuits reinforces that point. If the world’s leading quantum lab self-censors its own research for safety reasons, state actors with equivalent or superior capabilities are unlikely to publish at all.

Drake echoed this. “From now on, assume state-of-the-art algorithms will be censored. A blackout in academic publications would be a tell-tale sign.”

Why crypto?

Some industry voices questioned why Google aimed its most detailed analysis at crypto rather than banking or military systems. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas asked why Google would “apply this research time/money on crypto versus something of way more societal consequence.”

Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, had the answer: blockchains are the most brittle systems relying on the encryption that quantum computers can break. “Banks don’t fail because you reverse engineer a single key. Blockchains do,” Carter said. “They are much more brittle. Banks will upgrade anyway. There won’t be an attack surface there.”

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao urged calm but acknowledged the practical difficulty.

“All crypto has to do is upgrade to quantum-resistant algorithms. So, no need to panic,” Zhao said. “In practice, there are some execution considerations. It’s hard to organize upgrades in a decentralized world.”

Zhao also raised the Satoshi question directly. If those coins move during a migration, “it means he is still around, which is interesting to know.” If they don’t, he said, “it might be better to lock or effectively burn those addresses so that they don’t go to the first hacker who cracks it.”

The most popular counterargument on crypto X was that quantum computing breaks everything, not just blockchains.

“If quantum kills Bitcoin, it also kills the global banking system, SWIFT transfers, stock exchanges, military communications, nuclear command systems, every HTTPS website on earth,” wrote crypto commentator Quinten Francois.

Elon Musk struck a lighter note, posting that at least “if you forgot the password to your wallet, it will be accessible in the future.”

The paper addresses this framing head-on. Centralized systems, from banks to military networks, can push software updates to their users. A decentralized blockchain cannot. The timeline to migrate bitcoin’s infrastructure, including user wallets, exchange support, and new address formats, could take five to 10 years even after a solution is agreed upon.
Meanwhile, Google said it is working alongside Coinbase, the Stanford Institute for Blockchain Research, and the Ethereum Foundation on responsible approaches to the transition.

The company framed its research not as an attack on crypto but as an effort to “support the long-term health of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.”

The message from nearly every corner of the industry is now the same. The threat is no longer theoretical; it’s time to act. The only variable left is whether the protocols that need to migrate will do so before the hardware catches up.

Read more: Here’s how bitcoin, Ethereum and other networks are preparing for the looming quantum threat

S&P Dow Jones Indices, a division of S&P Global that tracks more than 125,000 benchmarks used across global investment markets, has joined forces with Kaiko, a digital assets data infrastructure firm, to bring the iBoxx US Treasuries Index to the Canton Network, making it the first major financial benchmark issued as a native blockchain asset.

The index is not a tradeable or investable instrument. It is issued as a non-fungible token that embeds data distribution, licensing rights, and permissioning directly into its structure, according to the companies.

While not investable, it enables institutional users authorized by S&P DJI to access end-of-day and intraday data, corporate actions, and automated compliance features through a single token.

The system also introduces lifecycle controls, usage tracking, and streamlined reporting, reducing operational friction. This move aligns with the growing role of US Treasuries as core collateral in blockchain-based finance. It signals a broader shift toward a programmable, blockchain-native infrastructure for institutional financial markets

Explaining the decision to tokenize the iBoxx US Treasuries Index, Cameron Drinkwater, Chief Product & Operations Officer at S&P Dow Jones Indices, highlighted that the rising role of US Treasuries as onchain collateral is driving demand for high-quality index data that is directly accessible on blockchain networks.

“This collaboration with Kaiko allows us to bring the iBoxx US Treasuries Index onchain with the same intellectual property protections and licensing standards our clients depend on in traditional markets while unlocking new efficiencies and expanded revenue opportunities,” Drinkwater stated.

With the iBoxx available natively on-chain, asset managers, exchanges, and decentralized finance protocols can reference an institutional-grade benchmark without the cumbersome off-chain integrations that previously characterized such efforts, as noted by Kaiko CEO Ambre Soubiran.

“With S&P Dow Jones Indices, Kaiko has built something the market has not seen before: a financial benchmark tokenized as a programmable, permissioned data asset with compliance and licensing built in,” Soubiran stated. “This fundamentally changes the economics of building index-linked financial products on distributed ledger networks.”

S&P DJI is expanding its indices into digital-native environments, making them programmable, onchain, and usable in real-time trading.

Earlier this month, the team announced its partnership with Trade[XYZ] to launch the S&P 500 as a perpetual contract on Hyperliquid.

Two analysts shared different Solana chart views, but both pointed to a larger upside case over time. One chart suggested Solana may be repeating an old recovery pattern, while the other showed room for a deeper correction before any move toward much higher targets.

Solana Chart Signals Repeat Pattern as Trader Points to Another Long Term Breakout

A weekly Solana chart shared by X user TheoTrader showed a familiar pattern that, in his view, could lead to another strong move higher. The chart, posted under the $SOL/$USDT pair on Binance, showed Solana trading near $82.70 after a long decline from earlier highs. TheoTrader wrote that the same setup “always plays out the same,” suggesting he expects Solana to recover again despite the current weakness.

$SOL/$USDT 1W Chart: Source: TheoTrader on X

The chart tracked Solana price action from 2021 into 2027 on a weekly timeframe. It showed earlier boom and bust cycles, including a sharp rise above $250 in 2021, a deep drop through 2022, and another major rally that pushed price close to the $300 level. On the right side of the chart, Solana sat below a descending trendline that connected lower highs across the recent downtrend.

At the same time, the chart also showed a fresh rebound from the lower range. Several recent candles pushed upward after Solana spent weeks near the trendline support area. A projected path on the chart suggested that price could first move toward the $110 zone, then continue much higher toward roughly $170 and even near $200 if momentum builds.

Below the main price chart, a momentum indicator appeared to shift from red bearish zones into green territory. Earlier cycles on the same indicator showed similar green turns near past market bottoms. Because of that, the trader appeared to argue that Solana may be entering another recovery phase rather than starting a new breakdown.

Still, the chart did not confirm a breakout yet. Solana remained below its long running descending resistance line, which means the next move would need to hold above recent gains and clear that trend barrier. Until then, the setup remains a forward looking chart view rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Even so, the post framed the current weakness as part of a repeated market cycle. In that reading, short term fear does not change the longer pattern. Instead, the chart suggests Solana could be setting up for another strong upside phase if the historical structure continues to repeat.

Solana Chart Maps Correction Zone Before Possible Push Toward $1,000

A monthly Solana chart shared by X user Crypto Patel outlined a deeper correction phase before any possible move toward much higher long term targets. The chart framed the current structure as a pullback within a broader cycle and marked the $70 to $50 area as the main support and accumulation zone. Crypto Patel argued that the path to $1,000 would likely include another shakeout before a stronger expansion phase begins.

$SOL/$USDT 1M Chart: Source: Crypto Patel on X

The chart showed Solana moving through a distribution phase after a strong uptrend. It marked liquidity below the $60 level and suggested that a break under $70 could open the way for a drop toward the lower end of the support band. In that setup, the correction is not presented as a trend failure but as part of a broader cycle that could reset the market before the next leg higher.

Crypto Patel also highlighted how deep pullbacks have appeared in earlier parts of Solana’s market structure. The chart included previous rebound zones and measured rallies that followed them. Based on that pattern, the analyst suggested that another washout into the marked accumulation area could clear weaker holders before a stronger recovery begins.

At the same time, the chart kept its long term outlook bullish. It showed projected upside targets at $500 and then $1,000 after the correction phase ends. Those targets depend on Solana holding the broader cycle structure and eventually turning the support zone into a base for the next rally.

Still, the setup remains conditional. A move below the upper support band would strengthen the bearish case in the short term and increase the chance of a sweep through lower liquidity levels. Until the chart confirms a reversal from that zone, the outlook remains focused on a correction first and a larger breakout only later.

The Royal Government of Bhutan has transferred another batch of Bitcoin ($BTC), signaling possible selling as the asset continues to witness capital outflows.

On-chain analytics show the move involved roughly 375 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $25.19 million at the time of the transfer. The amount was moved to an intermediary wallet previously linked to outflows toward Galaxy Digital, according to on-chain data retrieved from Arkham on March 31.

This latest activity adds to a wave of large transfers throughout March. Earlier, the government moved 973 Bitcoin worth about $72 million over two days, followed by 519.7 Bitcoin valued at $36.75 million to external wallets, including those linked to trading firms.

Another 123.7 Bitcoin transfer worth $8.5 million on March 27 underscores the accelerated pace.

Overall, these transactions have pushed total 2026 outflows above $152 million, with net sales estimated at around $120 million after accounting for some inflows.

Bhutan Bitcoin holdings

As of press time, the kingdom’s Bitcoin holdings stood at approximately $714.08 million, equivalent to 10,769 $BTC, representing about 0.051% of the total supply of Bitcoin.

The valuation reflects a 25% decline over the past three months, highlighting the impact of recent market movements on the kingdom’s digital asset reserves.

Bhutan began mining Bitcoin in 2019 using surplus hydropower, turning excess clean energy into a strategic reserve managed by Druk Holding and Investments that, at one point, contributed nearly 40% of GDP.

By late 2025, it had built one of the world’s largest sovereign Bitcoin holdings, viewed as a long-term store of value.

However, after pledging up to 10,000 $BTC for the Gelephu Mindfulness City project, 2026 has marked a shift toward steady, measured sales, typically $5 to $10 million per batch, to limit market impact.

Many of these transfers have been routed through established trading counterparties, including Singapore-based QCP Capital, in what analysts describe as orderly over-the-counter arrangements.

The proceeds are understood to support national infrastructure projects, civil servant salaries, and broader development goals tied to Gelephu Mindfulness City.

Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November 2024, ushering in a new era for the United States.

However, with the midterm elections just seven months away, campaigning has already begun. Accordingly, large cryptocurrency companies are expanding their influence on politics through political fundraising groups.

According to recent news, Chainlink Labs and Anchorage Digital have joined the founding members of a political action committee (PAC) called the “Blockchain Leadership Fund” in the US.

Chainlink Labs, the developer of the blockchain oracle Chainlink (LINK), and institutional digital asset custody company Anchorage Digital have joined a US lobbying group called the Blockchain Leadership Fund (BLF) to promote more positive cryptocurrency and blockchain policies.

The group will operate as a “hybrid PAC,” allowing for both direct contributions to candidates and independent election spending (such as advertising). Neither company disclosed the amount of their contributions.

The formation of the Political Action Committee (PAC) comes ahead of the November 3rd midterm elections, and the election results are of great importance.

The results will determine which party will gain a majority in the US House of Representatives and the Senate, and are expected to directly influence the direction of legislation related to cryptocurrencies. This is because they closely follow the progress of important bills, including the stablecoin law “GENIUS” and the market structure law “CLARITY”.

At this point, Chainlink Labs stated that the industry needs organized support for candidates who support the CLARITY Act.

Anchorage co-founder and CEO Nathan McCauley said, “2026 will be a crucial year for cryptocurrency regulation. The choices we make now will shape the industry and American financial leadership for decades to come. That outcome will depend on who invests in the process and who steps up at key moments.”

As you may recall, in the 2024 US presidential and general elections, approximately 270 pro-crypto candidates won seats in Congress, and the political action committee called “Fairshake,” supported by Ripple and Coinbase, spent hundreds of millions of dollars to exert significant influence on the election races.

*This is not investment advice.