Category: Business

Crypto outflows from Iran’s largest exchange jumped 700% within minutes of the first U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, blockchain analytics firm Elliptic said in a Monday blog post.

Elliptic said transaction volumes leaving Nobitex spiked almost immediately after the strikes, suggesting a rush to move funds offshore. Initial blockchain tracing indicates the crypto was sent to overseas exchanges that have historically received significant inflows from Iran.

The activity “potentially represents capital flight from Iran that bypasses the traditional banking system,” according to Dr. Tom Robinson, Elliptic’s co-founder and chief scientist.

Over the weekend, coordinated U.S. and Israeli airstrikes struck multiple targets in Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and escalating a wider Middle East conflict. The attacks stoked market volatility as investors priced in potential disruptions to oil supplies through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, sending global crude prices sharply higher and triggering broad sell-offs in equities and safe-haven buying across assets.

Nobitex allows users to convert Iranian rials into crypto and withdraw funds to external wallets, offering a route around traditional banking channels.

The exchange processed $7.2 billion in crypto transactions in 2025 and claims more than 11 million users, making it central to Iran’s digital asset ecosystem, Robinson said.

Elliptic has previously linked the exchange to IRGC-aligned financial activity and reported in January that Iran’s central bank appeared to use Nobitex in efforts to support the weakening rial.

Iran’s crypto ecosystem

Previous reports have detailed Iran’s growing use of cryptocurrencies as a hedge against a weakening rial and as a potential workaround to international sanctions, with U.S. authorities probing whether digital-asset platforms have enabled state-linked actors to move funds and access hard currency outside the traditional banking system. Blockchain research cited in those reports estimates that Iran-linked crypto activity has reached into the billions of dollars annually, spanning retail users as well as, according to officials, sanctioned entities.

Robinson also flagged additional surges in Iranian crypto outflows earlier this year. The largest came on Jan. 9, following widespread anti-regime demonstrations and a subsequent government-imposed internet blackout.

Two additional surges followed U.S. sanctions announcements targeting Iranian actors, the report said, suggesting crypto may be used to mitigate the impact of sanctions.

Bitcoin $BTC$65,525.47 and major altcoins dropped sharply in the immediate aftermath of the strikes, with $BTC briefly falling below $64,000 before recovering to the mid-$60,000s, underscoring crypto’s sensitivity to geopolitical tensions. Ether (ETH) and other tokens also declined, though several remained above pre-strike levels, pointing to a relatively swift rebound after the initial sell-off.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was over 2% lower at publication time, trading around $65,500. Ether, the second-largest crypto by market cap, was 3.8% lower at around $1,930.

Read more: Iran crisis puts the regime’s $7.8 billion crypto shadow economy in spotlight

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1907.12, up 0.3% (+5.99) since 4 p.m. ET on Friday.

Eight of the 20 assets are trading higher.

Leaders: NEAR (+12.4%) and SOL (+2.1%).

Laggards: DOT (-7.3%) and BCH (-4.5%).

The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

Bitcoin (BTC), which has been fluctuating between $70,000 and $63,000 since February, experienced a sharp drop over the weekend due to the US-Iran conflict, but subsequently recovered.

While Bitcoin remains around the $66,000 level, Singapore-based cryptocurrency analysis platform QCP Capital has shared its latest analysis for Bitcoin.

According to QCP analysts, the cryptocurrency market remained within a narrow range amid escalating US-Iran tensions. Following the US attack on Iran, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell to $63,000 and $1,910 respectively before recovering.

Saturday’s US attack on Iran resulted in the liquidation of approximately $300 million in long positions, but this was subsequently brought under control.

According to the analysis, options reacted moderately. 1-day implied volatility rose to 93% but then retreated to below 60%.

In particular, even as the conflict between the US and Iran escalated, option buyers continued to purchase Bitcoin call options with strike prices of $74,000 and $75,000 for the March expiry.

This suggests that some investors are positioning themselves for a rebound in March after five consecutive months of decline.

QCP analysts emphasize that the market is currently able to tolerate the fact that the Donald Trump administration has indicated that the military operation against Iran will last “approximately four weeks.”

*This is not investment advice.

Bitcoin BTC$66,299.23 is trading near $66,500 after adding 1.1% since midnight UTC and more than 5% from the weekend low of $63,000.

The crypto market is back in the middle of a trading range that has persisted since the start of February, with a volatile past week testing $70,000 to the upside and $62,500 to the downside.

Weekend price action was driven by the military strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, triggering retaliatory attacks and raising concerns about potential disruption to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to trading firm QCP, the strike sparked roughly $300 million in long liquidations — but the scale of forced selling was relatively contained, suggesting markets were already positioned for a volatile weekend.

The escalation pushed investors toward traditional havens, sending gold and silver to their highest levels in more than a month. Oil surged 13% to $82 a barrel, the highest price since July 2024.

U.S. equity index futures fell, with the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 down 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively, since midnight UTC.

The crypto market showed resilience, with most of the losses occurring on Saturday when U.S. markets were closed.

Derivatives positioning

• The fallout from the Iran war has been more contained than might have been expected. While cumulative crypto futures open interest has dropped 2% to $93.78 billion, it remains above the recent low of $92.40 billion.
• Over $300 million in leveraged bets have been liquidated by centralized exchanges in 24 hours, with bullish bets accounting for most of the tally.
• Annualized perpetual funding rates for major cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin and ether, are little changed to negative, indicating a slightly bearish bias.
• Still, the market isn’t showing signs of panic, as evidenced from the bitcoin 30-day annualized implied volatility index, BVIV. It remains steady at around 58.8%, well within the price range seen last week. The same is true for the ether volatility index.
• On Deribit, short-term bitcoin puts traded at an 8%-10% volatility premium to calls, a sign of heightened downside worries. The $60,000 put, or bearish bet, remains the most popular on the exchange.
• Block flows featured demand for bitcoin put spreads.

Token talk

• The altcoin market largely tracked bitcoin over the weekend, but one of the fastest to recover was lending token MORPHO, which continued its impressive two-week streak with a 5% jump over the past 24 hours having risen by 2.6% since midnight UTC.
• Decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens JUP, AAVE and LDO are all in the black as speculative appetite remains relatively strong despite a global shift to haven investments.
• Hyperliquid’s HYPE token surged by more than 29% on Saturday to snap February’s downtrend. While it lost 3.8% on Monday, losing 3.8% it remains above the crucial $30 level of support.
• WLFI$0.1051, the DeFi token linked to U.S. President Donald Trump’s family, exentended declines, falling 2.5% of its value since midnight. It is now down by more than 44% since mid-January following a series of lower highs and lower lows.
• CoinDesk’s DeFi Select (DFX) Index is the only benchmark that is positive over the past 24 hours. The worst performing was the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) and the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC), down by 1.87% and 1.71%, respectively.

The crypto market is under pressure again. Total market value has fallen to around $2.28 trillion, down more than 2% in the past 24 hours. Investors are asking the same question: Why is crypto crashing today?

Here’s what’s happening:

1. Rising Tensions in the Middle East

The biggest reason behind today’s drop is growing geopolitical tension between the United States, Israel and Iran.

Reports of military strikes and political instability have made global investors nervous. When uncertainty rises, many traders move their money out of risky assets like cryptocurrencies.

Right now, crypto is behaving like a “risk asset,” similar to stocks. In fact, Bitcoin has been moving closely with the S&P 500, showing about 78% correlation recently.

2. Bitcoin Is Leading the Drop

Bitcoin is trading around $66,200, down roughly 2–3% in 24 hours.

Ethereum has dropped to about $1,947, falling more than 4%.

Other major altcoins are also lower:

• Solana around $83
• XRP near $1.36
• Cardano around $0.27
• Dogecoin near $0.09

When Bitcoin falls, the rest of the market usually follows.

3. Fear Is Extremely High

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is now at 15, which is labeled “Extreme Fear.”

This means investors are very worried. When fear is high, people sell faster and buy less. That increases downward pressure on prices.

The market was already nervous before this latest news. The conflict simply made things worse.

4. $130 Million in Liquidations Made It Worse

Another reason prices dropped quickly is liquidations.

Over the past 24 hours, more than $130 million worth of Bitcoin positions were liquidated. Most of these were long positions, meaning traders who were betting on higher prices got forced out.

When exchanges automatically close losing positions, it creates extra selling. This can turn a normal dip into a sharper crash.

5. Gold Is Rising While Crypto Falls

Interestingly, while crypto is dropping, gold and silver are rising sharply.

Gold jumped nearly 2% within the first hour of market opening and is now close to hitting a new all-time high. Investors often buy gold during times of war or uncertainty because it is seen as a safer store of value.

This shows that money is moving out of risky assets and into safer ones. Right now, everything depends on geopolitical news. If tensions calm down, crypto could recover. If the conflict escalates, volatility may continue.

Asian markets plunged on Monday as the fallout from US and Israeli military strikes on Iran sent oil surging, stocks tumbling, and investors scrambling for safe havens — but Bitcoin held up better than expected, trading around $66,500 after a weekend that saw it swing between $63,000 and $68,000.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and Brent crude up as much as 13%, the conflict is now testing whether Bitcoin’s 24/7 liquidity makes it a crisis shock absorber or just another risk asset caught in the downdraft.

Asia Opens in the Red, Then Pares Losses

Japan’s Nikkei plunged as much as 2.15% at the open, shedding over 1,260 points. By midday, it had pared the drop to 1.66%, trading at 57,875. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.54%, and Singapore’s Straits Times fell 2.13%. Shanghai held up better, dipping just 0.45%.

Airline stocks across the region — Qantas, Singapore Airlines, and Japan Airlines among them — fell more than 5% as the Hormuz closure disrupted flight routes and sent fuel costs soaring. Chinese airlines were also hit hard.

Oil’s initial surge faded sharply through the session. Brent had jumped as much as 13% at the open, but WTI was up just 4.24% by midday. US equity-index futures also recovered, with the S&P 500 down 0.67% and the Dow off 0.71% — well off earlier lows of over 1%. Gold rose 1.76%.

China’s energy sector bucked the trend. PetroChina opened up 7% in Shanghai, and the CSI Energy Index jumped 5%. Korea’s Kospi, one of Asia’s top-performing markets this year, was closed Monday for a national holiday — delaying what could be a sharp reaction on Tuesday.

Bitcoin, down 2.2% on the day, outperformed the steep losses in equity futures and Asian stock benchmarks.

A Wild Weekend for Crypto

The turbulence began Saturday when US-Israeli strikes hit targets across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Bitcoin dropped below $64,000 within hours as the total crypto market shed roughly $128 billion in value, with forced liquidations cascading across derivatives markets.

The bounce came fast. After Iranian state media confirmed Khamenei’s death, traders bet the power vacuum could accelerate de-escalation, pushing Bitcoin back above $68,000 in thin Sunday liquidity. But the optimism faded as Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the Gulf, hitting targets in Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, dragging the price back below $66,000 by Sunday evening in New York.

By early Monday in Asia, Bitcoin was trading at around $66,543, with a 24-hour range of $65,149 to $68,043. The 24-hour trading volume topped $43.6 billion, reflecting heightened activity as traders repositioned ahead of the US market open.

Hormuz: The Real Risk

The biggest market risk is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of global seaborne oil passes through the waterway. Digital signals indicate tanker traffic has nearly halted. At least three ships have been attacked near the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Economists have warned that a sustained closure could push oil prices as high as $108 per barrel.

OPEC+ moved to ease supply fears on Sunday, announcing a production increase of 206,000 barrels per day starting in April — more than analysts had expected. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, and four other members are set to boost output. But analysts cautioned the move may offer limited relief. If Gulf flows remain constrained, additional production means little. Export routes matter more than headline output targets.

For crypto, the oil shock creates a dual threat. Higher energy prices feed directly into inflation expectations, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts that the market has been counting on. Even with OPEC+ stepping in, prolonged disruption to Hormuz could keep crude elevated long enough to push inflation readings higher, which is negative for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Pressure Valve or Risk Asset?

The weekend reinforced Bitcoin’s evolving identity in geopolitical crises. When traditional markets are closed, crypto absorbs selling pressure from equities, bonds, and commodities. Analysts call this the “pressure valve” effect. Bitcoin is the only large liquid asset trading around the clock. It took the brunt of weekend risk-off flows. The real price discovery is expected on Monday when US equity markets and Bitcoin ETFs reopen.

That ETF dynamic adds a new variable. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew nearly $254 million in net inflows over three sessions last week. Monday’s open could test whether institutional holders maintain positions through escalating geopolitical turmoil.

Bitcoin futures funding rates have turned sharply negative, with the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed index at 15 — deep in “Extreme Fear” territory where it has been stuck for weeks. Some analysts view this as a contrarian signal, arguing that the market is mechanically paying traders to go long.

What Comes Next

Some initial panic has faded after President Trump told the New York Times he was open to dropping sanctions on Iran if its new leadership proves pragmatic. A senior White House official also said to the press that Iran’s new interim leadership had suggested it was open to talks, and Trump said he had agreed to engage.

Some Wall Street strategists warned against buying the dip too quickly. This episode risks lasting longer than the geopolitical flare-ups investors have grown accustomed to.

For Bitcoin, which has already fallen 47% from its October all-time high of $126,000, the $60,000 support level remains the line in the sand. A break below could open the path to the mid-$50,000 range. A sustained move above $70,000, on the other hand, could trigger a short squeeze given the heavy bearish positioning currently built up in derivatives markets.

With CPI data due March 11 and the Fed decision on March 18, the crypto market faces a gauntlet of catalysts that the Iran conflict has made exponentially harder to navigate.

Michael Saylor sparked renewed speculation in the markets by sharing a new Bitcoin ($BTC) update.

Saylor’s post, which used the phrase “The Turn of the Century,” was interpreted as a sign that his company might be preparing to increase its Bitcoin holdings. In previous instances, Saylor has typically made similar posts a day before an official purchase announcement.

Strategy, founded by Saylor, currently holds a total of 717,722 $BTC. The total value of the company’s Bitcoin reserves is approximately $48.19 billion. With an average purchase cost of $76,020 and the current price around $67,170, the company’s position appears to be in an unrealized loss of approximately 11.68%. This indicates a paper loss of approximately $6.37 billion.

The performance data from the past year reveals a striking picture. While technology giants like Alphabet and NVIDIA recorded strong gains, Bitcoin lost approximately 28.7% of its value during the same period. Strategy shares, however, underperformed both Bitcoin and major technology stocks, falling by 49.3%. This is due to the company’s balance sheet being heavily dependent on Bitcoin price movements.

*This is not investment advice.