Category: Business

  • Battle for Bitcoin’s soul opens as first block supporting ‘clean-up’ proposal is mined

    Battle for Bitcoin’s soul opens as first block supporting ‘clean-up’ proposal is mined

    Bitcoin’s latest governance clash escalated this week as the first block signaling support for a temporary soft fork designed to restrict arbitrary, non-monetary data in the blockchain’s transactions was produced by mining pool Ocean.

    The proposal, formally assigned BIP-110 after evolving from earlier drafts, aims to reinstate strict limits on transaction output sizes and arbitrary data fields for about a year. The idea is to curb what proponents see as “spam” uses of block space for non-financial data. They argue that unchecked data, including large inscriptions and so-called OP_RETURN payloads, threaten the original blockchain’s role as sound monetary infrastructure and burden node operators.

    The community remains deeply divided. Prominent critics, including Blockstream CEO Adam Back, have warned that consensus-level intervention could harm Bitcoin’s credibility and lead to preferential treatment of some transactions in violation of the principle of neutral transaction capacity. He also questioned the level of support for the proposal, which, he said, increased the risk of the blockchain being split.

    Adding fuel to the debate, a developer recently inscribed a 66 KB image in a single transaction on Bitcoin, an apparent pushback against BIP-110’s core claims and a demonstration of how large amounts of data can be encoded even without relying on OP_RETURN.

    OP_RETURN and similar approaches are script instructions used to mark a transaction output as invalid for spending, effectively allowing users to repurpose that space to permanently embed arbitrary data — like text or images — directly into the blockchain

    As the controversy unfolds, it underscores enduring philosophical tensions within Bitcoin. Should network aggressively defend a narrowly defined monetary purpose or maintain maximal neutrality toward arbitrary uses of its base layer?

  • Weekend warriors: How HyperLiquid became retail’s bear market playground

    The crypto bear market has dragged down most major digital assets this year, but $HYPE has moved in the opposite direction. Year to date, the token is up 23.9%, matching gold’s gain over the same period. The S&P 500 is slightly negative, while bitcoin has fallen 23.7% and ether more than 33%.

    The divergence is notable not only because $HYPE is crypto-native, but because it has decoupled from the broader digital asset market. Its performance increasingly reflects the value of the platform behind it rather than the market’s direction.

    HyperLiquid, the decentralized derivatives exchange that underpins $HYPE, is built to monetize activity rather than price appreciation. In bull markets, capital tends to concentrate in spot exposure. In choppier conditions marked by drawdowns and macro shocks, derivatives volume tends to persist. Traders shift from buying to positioning, and the platform collects fees on both sides.

    While trading volume on competitor platforms Aster and Lighter has tumbled in recent months, HyperLiquid’s has increased, rising from $169 billion in December to more than $200 billion for both January and February. Aster, meanwhile, went from $177 billion in December to less than $100 billion in February, with Lighter suffering an even sharper drop, DefiLlama data shows.

    Total volume on HyperLiquid since its inception has now hit a whopping $4 trillion.

    Volatility as a business model

    HyperLiquid’s core product is perpetual futures, which allow traders to go long or short with leverage. When prices grind higher, leverage amplifies upside. When markets slide, shorting and basis trades step in. The exchange collects fees on both sides.

    That structure becomes particularly relevant in a year marked by turbulence across asset classes. Rather than relying on sustained price appreciation, the exchange captures turnover. In sideways or declining markets, traders often increase frequency, hedge exposure, or rotate into relative-value strategies. Activity replaces direction as the primary driver.

    And that business model has yielded positive results. Gross protocol revenue grew by 96% in Q3 of 2025 to $354 million, with the fourth-quarter total hitting $286 million, the majority of which came from perpetual trading fees.

    That revenue comes from a super-lean team of fewer than 15 employees, with half focused on engineering. HyperLiquid founder Jeff Yan has also refused investment from venture capitalists to maintain independence – a bold approach uncommon in the crypto industry.

    Trading beyond market hours

    More recently, HyperLiquid has expanded beyond crypto-native pairs. It now offers synthetic exposure to foreign exchange, commodities and major equity indices. It also provides weekend trading for U.S. equities, an innovation that resonates with retail traders accustomed to crypto’s round-the-clock rhythm.

    For a generation raised on app-based brokerage platforms, the traditional market calendar feels restrictive. As seen over the past weekend, geopolitical escalations often land outside the typical weekday trading window. HyperLiquid’s structure allows traders to react in real time rather than wait for Monday’s open.

    HyperLiquid’s silver market has also been a resounding success with trading volume nearing $750 million over a recent 24-hour trading period despite traditional markets being closed for the majority of Sunday.

    The exchange has also introduced pre-IPO perpetual markets tied to companies such as Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX. These instruments are synthetic and do not confer equity ownership, but they offer directional exposure to private companies. In effect, they create a parallel venue for price discovery among retail participants otherwise excluded from late-stage venture valuations.

    The product FTX tried to build

    The model carries echoes of an earlier vision. FTX pitched 24-hour trading, tokenized equities and seamless leverage across asset classes. Its collapse stemmed from custody risk, shoddy balance-sheet practices, and the commingling of funds.

    HyperLiquid operates on a non-custodial framework, with on-chain settlement and transparent vault mechanics. Users interact with smart contracts rather than deposit funds into a centralized entity’s balance sheet. In a post-FTX landscape, that distinction carries weight. Retail traders who absorbed losses from centralized failures remain sensitive to counterparty exposure.

    HyperLiquid delivers many of the features once marketed by FTX, but through infrastructure designed to reduce reliance on a single custodian.

    The exchange also leans into competition and gamification. Leaderboards prominently rank traders by performance, creating protagonists like James Wynn, who lost $100 million on HyperLiquid after engaging in a high-risk long-only trading strategy using leverage when bitcoin was above $100,000.

    The mechanic encourages engagement. Traders can build reputations through short positions, market-neutral strategies or well-timed directional bets, and that creates a buzz on social media – effectively acting as a marketing vehicle even in volatile markets.

    The centralization test

    Claims that HyperLiquid is insulated from bear markets require context. One year ago, the protocol faced a credibility shock that raised questions about decentralization.

    In April 2025, the total value locked in the Hyperliquidity Provider vault fell from $540 million to $150 million within a month. The trigger was a trading episode involving a token called JELLY. A trader opened a large short position on HyperLiquid while simultaneously buying the token on illiquid decentralized exchanges. Thin liquidity distorted price feeds and forced the vault into a toxic position via liquidation.

    As JELLY’s reported price spiked to levels unsupported by deep liquidity, the vault’s unrealized losses mounted. HyperLiquid intervened, force-closing the market and settling JELLY at $0.0095 rather than the roughly $0.50 price being relayed by oracles. The decision protected the vault from substantial losses, but it ignited backlash.

    Critics argued that a protocol marketed as decentralized had exercised discretionary control reminiscent of a centralized exchange. Governance optics deteriorated quickly. Yield on the vault fell sharply, and users withdrew capital.

    Security researchers described the episode as an economic design flaw rather than a smart contract exploit. Jan Philipp Fritsche of Oak Security characterized it as unpriced vega risk, where leveraged exposure to volatile assets drained the risk fund in a predictable manner. The episode underscored that economic vulnerabilities can be as destabilizing as technical bugs.

    HyperLiquid later modified its governance process, shifting asset delistings to an on-chain validator voting mechanism. The change did not eliminate scrutiny, but it addressed one of the central criticisms.

    The vault has since recovered to $380 million in TVL, offering users a 6.93% APR.

    Resilience through activity

    Despite the controversy, trading volume on the exchange remained robust, and with competitors Aster and Lighter losing momentum, HyperLiquid is positioning itself as a mainstay in the ongoing cryptocurrency bear market.

    Risks remain. Regulatory attention could intensify around synthetic exposure to private companies and U.S. equities. Liquidity fragmentation in thinner markets could resurface pricing distortions. Governance mechanisms will continue to be tested under stress.

    Yet $HYPE’s relative strength this year reflects a structural distinction. Rather than functioning as a high-beta bet on digital asset appreciation, it increasingly behaves like a claim on a venue that monetizes volatility.

    In a cycle defined less by sustained rallies and more by sharp swings, that positioning has mattered.

  • Altcoins Outperform Bitcoin With Double-Digit Weekly Gains

    Altcoins Outperform Bitcoin With Double-Digit Weekly Gains

    In brief

    • Polkadot, Near, and Jupiter are among the altcoins that have clocked double-digit gains over the past week.
    • The altcoin rally follows Bitcoin’s 4.7% recovery from a $63,000 low triggered by the U.S.-led attack on Iran.
    • For this rally to transition into a sustained uptrend, experts cited a combination of renewed liquidity and the dissipation of uncertainty due to macro and geopolitical events.

    Altcoins including Near Protocol, Polkadot and Jupiter have posted double-digit gains over the past week, far outpacing Bitcoin as traders rotated into higher-beta assets following the leading crypto’s attempted recovery.

    Near Protocol jumped 19.4% over the past seven days, while Polkadot gained 16.5% and Jupiter climbed 15.8%, according to CoinGecko data.

    Bitcoin, by contrast, is roughly breakeven over the same period, hovering near $66,100 after recovering 4.7% from its February 28 low of $63,176—a drop triggered by escalating Middle East tensions following a U.S.-led attack on Iran.

    The divergence tests whether altcoins can sustain momentum without Bitcoin leading the way. The move reflects technical positioning rather than a fundamental shift in market structure, experts told Decrypt.

    The altcoin rally comes despite fearful sentiment lingering in the crypto ecosystem, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hovering around 10—territory signaling “extreme fear.”

    “When the Fear & Greed Index hits extreme lows like 10 or 11, it typically signals that the forced selling phase of a deleveraging event has reached exhaustion,” Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Decrypt. “Over the past week, as Bitcoin found tentative support near the $63,000–$64,000 range, high-beta altcoins began to bounce simply because they were oversold on a technical basis.”

    “This explosion isn’t a sign of returning confidence but rather a result of thin liquidity and the clearing of over-leveraged short positions,” Zhang added. “In an environment of extreme fear, even a small amount of bottom-fishing by brave dip-buyers can cause outsized percentage gains in alts.”

    The altcoin rally is also a result of “heavily positioned” bearish bets, Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, told Decrypt. “When sentiment is depressed, even modest stabilization in Bitcoin can trigger short covering and rotation into higher beta assets,” she said. “This move appears more technical and liquidity-driven than a reflection of improving fundamentals.”

    Macro pressures

    Lin pointed to Bitcoin’s dip below $66,000 amid escalating Middle East tensions as evidence that crypto remains macro-sensitive. “While selling pressure has eased and dip buyers are active, we have not yet seen consistent safe-haven flows,” she added.

    The SynFutures CEO noted a divergence between retail sentiment and institutional capital allocation, citing “selective allocation into DeFi infrastructures” such as Morpho, which supports certain alt sectors more than the broader market.

    Lin said that for altcoins to sustain momentum, broader macro uncertainty needs to ease alongside improving liquidity conditions with renewed capital inflows—factors that could suggest a potential risk-on scenario and transition the ongoing rally into a sustained uptrend.

    Zhang cautioned that calling this the start of a sustained uptrend remains premature. “While Bitcoin showed resilience by rebounding to the $66,000 to $68,000 zone after the reports involving Iran, the market remains in a state of geopolitical paralysis,” she said. “We are currently seeing a relief rally fueled by short-covering and tactical rotation into beta assets that were hit hardest during the weekend drop.”

    She outlined three pillars needed for a sustained recovery: institutional stabilization, macro clarity, and technical confirmation. “We need to see a return to consistent net inflows in the Spot Bitcoin ETFs,” Zhang said. “The macro overhang must ease, specifically regarding the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and the potential for an energy-driven inflation spike due to Middle East tensions.”

    U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their first weekly inflow in six weeks, adding $787 million, according to SoSoValue data—further underscoring a long-standing risk-off behavior from crypto investors.

    Though altcoins have popped over the past week, their long-term performance remains deep in the negative. Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, reflect this pessimism, assigning a 6.4% chance to the likelihood of an “alt season” before April 2026 .

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  • Morning Minute: Bitcoin Crashes, Rebounds as Iran War Begins

    Morning Minute: Bitcoin Crashes, Rebounds as Iran War Begins

    Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

    GM!

    Today’s top news:

    • Crypto majors dip then rebound amidst Iran War; BTC at $66k
    • HYPE wins the weekend, rallying 20%+ to $30 while HIP-3 sees record OI
    • Bitcoin ETFs saw $787M in net inflows last week
    • US declares Anthropic as supply chain risk after negotiations on how the US could use Claud fell through
    • Paradigm announced a new $1.5B fund focused on AI & Robotics

    🪖 Bitcoin Crashes, Rebounds During Early Hours of Iran War

    Bitcoin was the only large liquid asset that anyone could sell when the bombs started dropping. And it only dropped 3%.

    📌 What Happened

    Early Saturday, US and Israeli forces launched coordinated missile strikes on Iran targeting nuclear, missile, and naval infrastructure.

    President Trump confirmed “major combat operations” and urged Iranians to overthrow the regime.

    Iran retaliated with missiles targeting Israel, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, and US bases in Iraq. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a nationwide state of emergency.

    Iranian state media later confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the strikes, along with 40 senior officials.

    Crypto markets absorbed it all in real time.

    BTC dropped from roughly $65,500 to $63,000 within hours. The total crypto market cap fell by $128B with $449M in longs liquidated.

    Then, as Iranian state media confirmed Khamenei’s death, BTC shot back to $68,196 in a major recovery rally.

    As of this morning, it’s back to $66,300.

    Meanwhile, Hyperliquid was the surprising crypto winner of the weekend. Its HIP-3 markets set a new record in open interest, and Hyperliquid was featured in Bloomberg as the primary marketplace for those looking to trade the war.

    The HYPE token rallied from $26 to $32 through weekend trading.

    🗣️ What They’re Saying

    “Bitcoin is the only large liquid asset trading 24/7, so it absorbed all the selling pressure that would normally spread across equities, bonds, and commodities. The real price discovery happens Monday when US equity markets and Bitcoin ETFs reopen.” – Hayden Hughes, Tokenize Capital

    “With a lot of the leverage already cleared out and exhausted sellers, there’s only so much impact macro events can have.” – Justin d’Anethan, Arctic Digital

    “Where price discovery happens when TradExchanges sleep.” – Arthur Hayes, responding to Hyperliquid’s weekend volume surge

    🧠 Why It Matters

    Fear and Greed was sitting at 14. ETF flows had flipped to net sellers in February.

    And then the biggest geopolitical shock in years hits on a Saturday.

    BTC dropped less than 4%. That was the signal.

    Heading into April 2024, when Iran first fired missiles at Israel, BTC dropped about 6%. Then over subsequent months it broke to new all-time highs. The June 2025 strike on Iranian nuclear sites pushed BTC below $100K briefly before it ripped.

    The pattern is consistent: war shocks trigger sell-offs, then the macro digestion reverses them. The question this time is whether the 50%-off ATHs and bear market make it different.

    Two things to monitor: the Strait of Hormuz and the ETF bid.

    If Iran’s IRGC retaliates by threatening the strait, through which about 20% of global oil passes daily, you get an inflation shock that would keep the Fed on hold indefinitely and crush risk assets broadly, crypto included. Goldman Sachs is already predicting Oil will hit $100/barrel if this war goes on for 4 weeks as Trump said it might on Sunday.

    On the other hand, if Khamenei’s death accelerates regime destabilization and traders read it as shortening the conflict, the relief bid continues.

    Monday’s ETF flows will be the first signal.

    The Hyperliquid story is the other one to watch longer term.

    Its HIP-3 open interest (where TradFi assets can be trading around the clock) hit an all-time high above $1.1B. Hyperliquid infrastructure is becoming the 24/7 layer for all asset classes, not just tokens.

    And it was the big winner of the weekend.

    Now we wait for what’s in store this week…

    🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

    • Crypto majors fell and then rebounded on the initial Iran strike and have levelled off; BTC even at $66.3k; ETH -2% at $1,950; SOL -1% at $84
    • Morpho (+5%), NEAR (+5%) and JUP (+3%) led top movers
    • Oil is up 8% premarket this morning with the Straight of Hormuz closure
    • Gold (+3%) and Silver (+2%) are both rallying amist the war
    • HYPE rallied 13% over the weekend to $31 as Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest set an all-time high above $1.1B and was featured in a Bloomberg headline about weekend markets
    • The Department of War labeled Anthropic a “supply chain risk” and directed federal agencies to stop using its AI tools after negoations to use Claude for the Iran war fell through
    • Iran’s crypto mining network is being monitored, as the regime operated between 2-5% of global Bitcoin hashrate using subsidized electricity
    • Trump Media is weighing spinning off Truth Social into a separate public entity called SpinCo, which would merge with Texas Ventures III
    • South Korea’s National Tax Service accidentally published unredacted Ledger seed phrases in a press release
    • Minnesota lawmakers are considering a full statewide ban on crypto ATMs via HF 3642, which would make it the first US state to do so.
    • Ripple introduced new funding routes for XRP Ledger development, including a new FinTech Builder Programme and university partnerships

    Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

    Meme Coin Tracker

    • Meme majors were mostly red; DOGE -2%, SHIB -3%, PEPE -2%, TRUMP -1%, PENGU -1%, SPX -4%, FARTCOIN -2%
    • WAR (+150%), Jellybean (+50%), PysopAnime (+30%) and HODL (+50%) led notable movers

    💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

    • One Polymarket trader banked $385K betting on a US-Israel Iran strike date every day since February 8, losing repeatedly until Saturday morning
    • Meanwhile, Kalshi caught heat for not resolving its Khamenei market, leading to several comments on the matter from founder Tarek Mansour
    • Crypto VC Paradigm announced a new $1.5B fund foducsed on AI, robotics and other frontier tech
    • Backpack exchange explained the legal engineering behind its token-to-equity program, stating that the conversion right won’t attach to the token itself, it’ll attach to a VIP program requiring one year of staking and active trading

    🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

    • NFT leaders were mostly flat over the weekend; Punks even at 29.9 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 4.5 ETH, BAYC -1% at 6 ETH; Hypurr’s -2% at 460 HYPE
    • CyberKongz (+36%) led top movers

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  • As the New Week Begins with US-Iran Tensions, a Critical Report for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins Has Been Released! What’s the Current Situation?

    As the New Week Begins with US-Iran Tensions, a Critical Report for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins Has Been Released! What’s the Current Situation?

    Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins started the new week with the US-Iran conflict. Bitcoin fell to $63,000 over the weekend before recovering to around $66,000.

    As market weakness and uncertainty persist, Coinshares released its cryptocurrency report, stating that it experienced $1 billion in inflows last week.

    “Cryptocurrency investment products saw $1 billion in inflows, ending a five-week streak of $4 billion in outflows.”

    “The decline in prices, technical resets, and the regrouping of large investors supported this trend.”

    Bitcoin and Altcoins Relieved!

    Looking at crypto funds individually, it was observed that inflows were mainly in Bitcoin.

    Bitcoin saw inflows worth $881.5 million, while Ethereum (ETH) experienced inflows of $116.9 million.

    Looking at other altcoins, XRP saw inflows of $1.9 million, Solana (SOL) $53.8 million, and Chainlink (LINK) $3.5 million.

    “Bitcoin was the top performing asset with inflows of $881 million.”

    Ethereum also saw inflows totaling $117 million. This was the largest inflow since mid-January.

    Both Ethereum and Bitcoin have remained in a net outflow position since the beginning of the year.

    In contrast, Solana saw inflows of $53.8 million last week and $156 million since the beginning of the year.

    Chainlink saw a small inflow of $3.4 million, with no other significant outflows.

    Looking at regional fund inflows and outflows, the US ranked first with an inflow of $957 million.

    After the US, Canada saw inflows of $34.1 million, Germany $31.7 million, and Switzerland $28.4 million. In contrast, Sweden experienced small outflows of $3.3 million and France $1.2 million.

    *This is not investment advice.

  • Tom Lee’s Bitmine boosts ether holdings to 4.47 million tokens with $98 million ETH purchase

    Tom Lee’s Bitmine boosts ether holdings to 4.47 million tokens with $98 million ETH purchase

    Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) on Monday reported purchasing nearly 51,000 more $ETH tokens last week, increasing its holdings to 4.474 million.

    “In the midst of this ‘mini crypto winter,’ our focus continues to be on methodically executing our treasury strategy and steadily acquiring $ETH and in turn, optimizing the yield on our $ETH holdings,” said Chairman Tom Lee.

    The company said it now has 3,040,483 $ETH staked, worth about $6 billion at current prices. Lee said annualized staking revenue stands at $172 million. At full scale, staking rewards could reach $253 million annually based on a 2.86% yield over the last seven days, Lee continued.

    The company holds 4,473,587 ether ($ETH), valued at $1,976 per token, along with 195 bitcoin and $868 million in cash, as well as a $200 million stake in Beast Industries and a $14 million investment in Eightco Holdings. Bitmine said its ether position represents 3.71% of Ethereum’s 120.7 million token supply.

    Lee added that the firm is developing its Made in America Validator Network, or MAVAN, a staking platform slated for launch in early 2026. Bitmine said it is working with three staking providers as it builds the network.

  • What the Iran Conflict Means for Bitcoin’s Price

    What the Iran Conflict Means for Bitcoin’s Price

    In brief

    • Bitcoin has steadied after an initial weekend selloff tied to Middle East tensions, holding up better than U.S. equity-index futures.
    • Funding rates in Bitcoin futures have turned sharply negative, signaling crowded short positioning in derivatives markets.
    • Oil and gold have rallied on fears of supply disruption and inflation risk, underscoring a broader risk-off tone across global markets.

    Bitcoin has so far absorbed the latest escalation in the Middle East, following a spike in volatility in U.S. futures on Sunday, as traders continue to parse the impact on global energy markets.

    U.S.-led strikes on Iranian targets have prompted retaliatory missile and drone attacks, raising fears of a wider regional conflict after reports that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s 36-year rule as Iran’s supreme leader had ended. 

    Iran has warned of further retaliation, while shipping and aviation disruptions across the Gulf have sharpened concerns that the conflict could extend beyond a limited exchange.

    Bitcoin is down 0.4% on the day to $66,600 after reclaiming ground lost over the weekend, when its price fell to as low as $63,000. The asset is down roughly 2.8% on the week, according to CoinGecko data. 

    The decline was relatively smaller than losses implied by equity-index futures, which were down more than 1% across the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500. Losses in equity-index futures suggests investors are marking down risk broadly in response to overnight macro and geopolitical developments ahead of the U.S. open.

    “Bitcoin’s initial sell-off was almost textbook; markets hate uncertainty more than bad news, and the moment the Iran conflict looked contained, the reflexive bid came back fast,” Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at Merkle Tree Capital, told Decrypt.

    The expert pointed to a Fear and Greed index reading of 11, alongside Bitcoin futures funding rates swinging to -6%, indicating shorts are paying a significant premium to maintain a bearish bias in a situation not seen since Bitcoin traded at $16,000 back in 2022.

    “The market is mechanically paying you to be long; it’s time to get long, McMillin said.

    Echoing that sentiment, Pratik Kala, head of research at Apollo Crypto, told Decrypt Bitcoin’s price action suggested much of the initial shock had already been reflected. 

    “Bitcoin would’ve sold off by now if it had to—the tape through the event over the weekend was very positive. CME futures have also opened, and if Bitcoin were to dump or follow equities, it would have by now,” Kala said.

    Broader markets have focused on the potential for disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping lane that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supply.

    Oil prices have surged sharply on the Iran conflict, with Brent crude jumping roughly 8–10% toward $80 a barrel and U.S. WTI up about 7–8%. 

    “If oil stays elevated, there will be a risk to a higher inflation print, which is negative for risk assets—and Bitcoin,” Kala said. “However, I don’t expect that to be the base case.”

    Kala cited large oil supplies from OPEC countries that could seek to “plug the gap” and President Donald Trump doing “things in his power” to keep prices low, as “he knows that will turn the sentiment of Americans most.”

    Safe-haven gold, meanwhile, has leapt more than 2% to $5,388 per troy ounce. 

    “The ongoing Middle East conflict is set to further fuel gold’s tailwinds, likely triggering a knee-jerk price spike on rising safe haven demand.” Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit Learn, told Decrypt.

    “Still, seasoned market watchers would be well aware that geopolitical risk premiums are often faded out swiftly, once market and economic risks are digested and appear to be contained,” he added.

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  • Hyperliquid’s Token Rises as Weekend Iran Shock Finds Few Open Markets

    Hyperliquid’s Token Rises as Weekend Iran Shock Finds Few Open Markets

    In brief

    • HYPE rose about 6% even as Iran headlines drove weekend volatility.
    • Hyperliquid absorbed early volume as price moves formed before traditional futures reopened.
    • Weekend shocks may turn always-on perps into a repeat venue for early risk pricing and fee growth, Decrypt was told.

    As tensions escalated over Iran-related headlines this weekend, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token rose about 6% as traders turned to the always-on decentralized perpetuals platform to express risk while many traditional markets were closed.

    Bitcoin and other risk assets fell as Iran-related tensions escalated, while oil and gold moved higher amid a broader risk-off shift. Volatility rose, and funding rates turned negative across crypto derivatives markets as traders adjusted positioning.

    Hyperliquid is a decentralized exchange that lets traders buy and sell perpetual futures contracts directly on-chain without using a centralized intermediary.

    Its native token, HYPE, fell to about $26.2 at the end of February, in line with the broader market pullback, before surging to roughly $32 as volatility picked up on Sunday.

    The token is up about 25% year to date, though it remains well below its September peak near $58, per CoinGecko data.

    Trading volume over the last 24 hours for the exchange reached a near one-month high on Saturday, rising to a peak of $200 million before dissipating as traders digested the risk premium to global energy markets.

    Always-on trading

    Hyperliquid was one of the few venues open and liquid as volatility picked up over the weekend, drawing trading activity at a time when equity futures and many centralized crypto platforms were either closed or operating with thinner books.

    “As a decentralized perpetuals platform, it was one of the few venues actually open and liquid when the Iran headlines hit, and in a weekend event where centralized venues are closed off to face thin liquidity,” Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at Merkle Tree Capital, told Decrypt.

    Geopolitical shocks “make the case for non-custodial, always-on trading infrastructure,” McMillin added, noting how HYPE appears to sit “at an interesting intersection.”

    Hyperliquid’s token “benefits both from volume-driven fee revenue during chaos events and from any broader rotation away from centralised exchange risk,” he said. “It’s worth watching whether weekend crisis volume is becoming a structural tailwind rather than a one-off.”

    For HYPE, this ties geopolitical shocks directly to trading volume and fee activity, supporting the view that off-hours crises may become a repeat source of demand.

    First response

    Decentralized platforms like Hyperliquid’s are increasingly serving as “the first-response venue for geopolitical risk,” Dominick John, analyst at Kronos Research, told Decrypt.

    “Institutions leverage these always-on markets to anticipate moves in conventional venues, using on-chain perpetuals to hedge before broader markets open,” John explained, adding that such a function positions decentralized venues “for early risk pricing.”

    Weekend geopolitical shocks provide decentralized perpetuals exchanges “a structural edge” that captures “risk-driven flow while TradFi sleeps,” he added.

    While platforms like Hyperliquid could serve that purpose, most other perpetual decentralized exchanges, including its own HIP-3 markets, would still need to “achieve much deeper order book liquidity to onboard institutional traders,” Siwon Huh, researcher at Four Pillars, told Decrypt.

    On Hyperliquid, new markets require HYPE to be staked, and much of the platform’s fees go toward HYPE buybacks, meaning volatility and trading growth can directly increase demand for the token, which has also shown lower correlation to Bitcoin than many other altcoins, he explained.

    “For now, they appear to have already established themselves as highly useful exchanges at the retail level,” Huh said, adding that the weekend geopolitical shocks are likely to “capture demand from liquidity providers requiring hedging at a much larger scale.”

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  • Banking Regulator Floats New Stablecoin Yield Rules—Do They Hurt Coinbase?

    Banking Regulator Floats New Stablecoin Yield Rules—Do They Hurt Coinbase?

    In brief

    • The OCC proposed rules that would restrict certain stablecoin rewards programs under the GENIUS Act.
    • The language could affect Coinbase’s USDC rewards arrangement with Circle, some industry experts said.
    • But the rules are changeable, and not final, and others believe they won’t outlaw top stablecoin rewards programs.

    A key Treasury Department bureau released preliminary rules this week detailing how it will implement the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act—and industry experts are split about whether the proposal could impact America’s top stablecoin rewards program.

    On Thursday, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the nation’s top banking regulator, released a massive, 376-page proposed rulemaking detailing how it intends to implement the GENIUS Act, which was signed into law by President Donald Trump last summer.

    Among the proposed rules—which are subject to a 60-day public comment period—are multiple sections prohibiting certain types of stablecoin rewards. The prohibitions appear to outlaw certain arrangements between stablecoin issuers and third parties in which the third parties pass yield onto stablecoin holders in connection with their “holding, use, or retention” of the tokens.

    That sounds not so far from the current arrangement between USDC issuer Circle and Coinbase. Both companies share revenue from the yield generated on USDC’s reserves, and Coinbase currently offers users roughly 4% yield, essentially a type of interest payment, on their USDC deposits.

    Multiple crypto policy leaders told Decrypt they think the OCC’s proposed language could impact Coinbase’s current USDC rewards program, but emphasized the complexity of the proposed rule and the possibility that it could be worked around.

    One of the policy leaders said Coinbase was likely always going to need to adjust its USDC rewards program at least somewhat after the implementation of the GENIUS Act. Coinbase did not immediately respond to Decrypt’s request for comment on this story.

    Last year, Coinbase reported $1.3 billion in stablecoin revenue. The company cited its USDC rewards program as its key growth driver in 2025.

    Some crypto executives have denounced the OCC’s proposed rulemaking, deeming it regressive.

    Scott Johnsson, a finance lawyer and crypto-focused venture capitalist, told Decrypt he thinks the language “most likely does” impact Coinbase’s USDC rewards program. But he also expects the rule will be challenged, and changed.

    But others have taken a different tune. Circle’s head of global policy, notably, commended the OCC on its proposed regulations—a sentiment echoed by Circle’s CEO, Jeremy Allaire.

    “This is all part of accelerating U.S. leadership in transforming the economic and financial system and rebuilding it natively on the internet,” Allaire said.

    Perhaps underscoring the possibility that Coinbase and Circle needn’t worry too much about the proposed rules, a banking industry source told Decrypt that the OCC’s announcement does not give them much comfort. The banking lobby has been pushing for months to restrict stablecoin rewards, which it worries could siphon customers away from traditional, low-yield bank accounts. 

    “It really doesn’t solve the problem,” the banking industry source said, alluding to potential loopholes in the OCC’s proposed restrictions. The source emphasized that rulemakings “can always be changed.”

    The banking industry would rather have restrictions on stablecoin yield permanently enshrined in law, the source said. For over a month, banking and crypto representatives have gone back and forth negotiating the issue of stablecoin yield, as part of negotiations on crypto’s stalled market structure bill. The meetings, led by the White House, were intended to arrive at a deal by this weekend—but a deal is unlikely to materialize so soon, Decrypt reported earlier Friday.

    “This doesn’t fix the debate,” Todd Phillips, a law professor at Georgia State focused on bank regulation, said of the OCC’s proposed rules. “This is not going to satisfy the two warring sides.”

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  • Bitcoin Recovers Following Plunge as US, Israel Begin Bombing Iran

    Bitcoin Recovers Following Plunge as US, Israel Begin Bombing Iran

    The price of Bitcoin rapidly fell overnight as the United States and Israel began joint “major combat operations” in Iran, bombing numerous military targets in what officials said were attempts to end the country’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, as well as take out key military leaders.

    But while Bitcoin plunged from a price of $65,572 to $63,176 in about an hour overnight following word of the strikes, the leading cryptocurrency has mostly recovered that ground in the hours since.

    It’s currently trading for $65,051, according to data from CoinGecko, still showing an approximately 0.8% loss on the day and 5.2% fall over the last seven days.

    Major altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, and Solana also fell sharply following the overnight attacks, but have similarly made up most of that ground as of this writing, showing daily losses of less than 2% each.

    Crypto liquidations surged overnight amid the rapid market plunge, with CoinGlass showing about $490 million worth of positions liquidated over the past 24 hours, led by Bitcoin and Ethereum longs. Overall, Bitcoin positions make up $196 million worth of the liquidations, with Ethereum following at $132 million.

    At its overnight low, Bitcoin was approximately 50% down from its all-time high mark above $126,000 set last October. The leading cryptocurrency has fallen sharply over the last month, about 23% during that span. Bitcoin started the year at a price around $87,000.

    Crypto prices have historically been impacted by geopolitical turmoil, and this time around is no different. For example, the price of Bitcoin and other assets fell sharply after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

    The overnight strikes led Iran to launch retaliatory attacks against U.S. military assets across the Middle East, while Iran reckons with the fallout from the bombings. News agencies have reported mass civilian casualties in Iran, including a reported 85 deaths after a girls school was struck in the Minah province.

    Users on Myriad—a prediction market operated by Decrypt‘s parent company, Dastan—increasingly believe that the Iranian regime will collapse before October, currently penciling in a 51% chance of that happening. Those odds rose 20% over the last day.

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