Box Office Stunner: ‘Michael’ Rocketing to Other-Worldly $95M-$100M U.S. Debut, $200M Globally

In a history-making moon walk, Antoine Fuqua’s Michael Jackson biopic is launching light-years ahead of expectations at the domestic box office with a projected $94 million-$100 domestic opening and a global launch $200 million.

It’s also a super-sized victory for Lionsgate and its biggest opening in years. The mini-major studio, is attempting to manage expectations by giving a wider domestic opening range of $90 million to $100 million. But rival studios have no reason to hold back, and are thrilled for Lionsgate.

Michael grossed a super-sized $38.5 million on Friday alone, its official opening day, as audience exit scores quickly went platinum and the film attracted virtually demo, led by Black and female moviegoers. (So much for all the chatter about generally bad reviews.)

Overseas, Jackson is an even bigger draw, where Michael is likewise off to a record start. Universal is handling the film internationally after being brought aboard by Lionsgate.

Heading into the weekend, Michael was tracking to open in the $65 million-$70 million range domestically, which would have already been enough to boast the biggest opening of all time for a music biopic, not adjusted for inflation. The current record-holder is Universal’s Straight Outta Compton ($60.1 million) followed by Fox’s Freddie Mercury biopic Bohemian Rhapsody ($55 million).

Now, it’s also going to pass up Hail Project Mary — which is no small feat — to score the top opening in years for a non-franchise, non-tentpole. It’s also one of the biggest biopics of any genre.

An inkling of Michael‘s potential was revealed when the film earned $12.6 million in Wednesday and Thursday previews, on par with 2026 box office surprise hit hit Hail Project Mary, and ahead of such event pics including Dune: Part II and Oppenheimer, which both reported preview grosses in the $10 million range.

The big unknown was how front-loaded Michael would be. By Saturday, the movie’s stamina was kmoviegoers were over-the-moon for the film, which boasts a coveted 96 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes.

On Thursday, headlines focused on Michael‘s worrisome RT critics’ score, which bounced between 29 percent and 33 percent. By Thursday night, the critics’ score had risen to 40 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. While that’s far from ideal, strong audience exits are more than making up for it.ar from ideal. Posttrak is the coveted 90 percent-plus rage, with the definite recomend sitting at 85 percent, also a number you don’t see often. Nearly 40 percent of the film’s gross is coming from Imax and other premium large-format sreens

Many reviews were took issue with the fact that producer Graham King, along with Lionsgate, had decided to end the movie before Jackson became engulfed in allegations of child sexual abuse (the Jackson estate backed the project). The film’s initial budget of $155 million came in closer to $200 million after tens of millions were spent on additional photography to make that decision a reality.

“Fuqua and screenwriter John Logan don’t exactly break the mold with Michael, nor do they stuff it with major revelations. But they tap into a vein of melancholy underlaying the stratospheric success that’s surprisingly affecting,” THR chief film critic David Rooney writes in its review. “The online mob will be sharpening their pitchforks given the movie’s failure to address the accusations of child sexual abuse that tarnished Michael Jackson’s legacy. But the filmmakers get around that by focusing on his early career, ending with the 1988 Bad World Tour concert in London, years before allegations first surfaced. The epilogue card reading ‘His story continues’ does some heavy lifting.”

When Michael first came on tracking three weeks ago, the domestic opening range was $55 million to $60 million. While still a great number, the subsequent spike signals that Michael may be benefiting from the nostalgia factor that is inspiring infrequent moviegoers to return to the multiplex in droves for the first time since the pandemic, or sparking interest among the most avid moviegoing demo, Gen Zers.

“This record-breaking performance is a testament to the incredible filmmaking team of producer Graham King and director Antoine Fuqua, an amazing cast led by Jaafar Jackson’s singular performance, our world-class partners at Universal, the cooperation and support of the Michael Jackson Estate, and our tireless and exceptionally talented Lionsgate team,” said Lionsgate Motion Picture Group Chair Adam Fogelson.  “Above all, it reflects the tremendous outpouring of love and affection from moviegoers around the world, underscoring the strength and vitality of the theatrical box office.  If you give audiences what they want, they will come.”Overseas, Michael is opening in 82 markets, excluding Japan. It unfurled in most key markets on Wednesday, earning $16.6 million for a running total of $18.5 million, including previews.

International Wednesday highlights included:

France ($2.6 milion): Biggest opening day ever for a biopic, coming in well above the Wednesday openings of both Oppenheimer and Bohemian Rhapsody.

U.K. & Ireland ($2.6 million): Biggest opening day for a musical biopic of all time, ahead of the Wednesday opening of Bohemian Rhapsody and well above the Friday openings of Elvis and Rocketman. 

Italy ($1.3 million): Biggest opening day ever for a musical biopic, above Bohemian Rhapsody.

Australia ($1 million): Biggest opening day for a musical biopic ever, beating Elvis. 

Brazil ($651,000): Michael added another $651,000 in previews for a running total of $2 million. The combined preview result represents the biggest ever for a non-superhero, non-franchise film in the market. It continues to rank No. 1, with a 68 percent market share.

April 25, 6:06 p.m.: Update with rised estimtates for Michael.

This story was originally published April 24 at at 1:58 a.m.