Author: rb809rb

UPDATED with statement from Iowa AG Brenna Bird: When all is said and done, the antitrust clash between Paramount Skydance and a dozen blue states may be best articulated by a certain Earth, Wind & Fire tune and remembering a day or two in September.

In a move that could be read as a lifeline or a death knell depending on your POV, the Supreme Court just told California Attorney General Rob Bonta and 11 of his colleagues that they have two weeks to respond to a challenge by Iowa and Montana to their efforts to kneecap the $111 billion ParaBros merger.

“Upon consideration of plaintiffs’ motion for expedited consideration, it is hereby ordered that defendants are allowed until September 25, 2026, to file responses to the motion for leave to file a bill of complaint,” the SCOTUS said in an order Wednesday.

While the edict doesn’t mean the conservative High Court is taking up the red states’ request for Motion For Leave to File a Bill of Complaint, it doesn’t mean they’re not either. Today’s order could suggest the Supreme Court is considering Iowa and Montana’s request for “expedited consideration” in the partisan matter. Still, even if the red states get their way if might be months before any hearing in DC — time that will surely deepen and harden already Mariana Trench-deep animosity between the Melrose lot-based Paramount and the various state capitols.

Also, the September 25 deadline puts the coalition of Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Washington in a bit of a bottleneck. The SCOTUS deadline is one day after the dozen blue states are set to argue against the David Ellison-owned Para’s desire for a $1.88 billion bond in front of a federal judge in Oakland. It also comes just a few days before a $7 million a day ticking fee to Warner Bros Discovery shareholders kicks in for Team Ellison. That ticking fee, which is the basis of Paramount’s protest of “extraordinary losses” out of the court case and its March 2, 2027 trial start date, adds up to over $635 million a quarter — so do the math.

Waving off MAGA-chummy Para’s leaked threats of leaving California for a kinder red state and more as “blackmail,” Golden State AG  Bonta, in an August 10 guest column for Deadline, called the long anticipated July 13 filing against Paramount and WBD “a straight up antitrust enforcement case. One that is very cut and dry.” David Ellison and crew disagree, pointing to midterms real politick and CNN ownership as the true cause of the move to stymie a deal that has been approved by “good friend” Donald Trump‘s DOJ, the UK, the EU, Canada, and many more.

In her promise to take the matter to the Supreme Court, Iowa AG Brenna Bird, while seeing no sin in the DOJ white glove sign-off on the merger earlier this year, condemned Bonta and the other 11 AGs on August 25 as “more hostile to this pro-competition merger than Europe and China.”

“Attorney General Bird sued California because California is trying to raise Iowans’ costs,” Bird’s office said in a statement Tuesday to Deadline. “Today’s order for California to respond quickly shows the United States Supreme Court is taking our request seriously. We look forward to California trying to justify why it is so committed to raising prices for streaming and entertainment for Americans across the country.”

Bonta’s staff at the California Department of Justice have not responded to Deadline’s request for comment on the order by the John Roberts-led SCOTUS. Paramount reps also were as quiet as church mice on what could be a defining moment in this big stakes, big egos battle.

Or, to put it in a dance move mode, with a bit of tweak: “Do you remember/the twenty-fifth night of September? ..how the stars stole the night away?”

Among many D.C. lobbyists, when the bet is on whether a piece of legislation will pass Congress or not, the rule of thumb always is to take the latter. Yet, a long-desired federal film and television tax incentive that’s suddenly coming to life with the recent backing of Donald Trump could prove the exception. Maybe.

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are drafting legislation, with current plans for a 20% incentive and an additional 5% to 10% for rural areas or spread across several states. A bill could be introduced this month, with some announcement on the status expected when Congress returns next week, and the details are not set in stone.

“This is the best opportunity now we’ve had to get this done in really decades,” Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) said on CNN this week. On Tuesday, Schiff complimented talks among the White House, House members and some of his fellow Senators, but cautioned a deal is not yet done. “Negotiations are ongoing,” Schiff, who Trump has long attacked personally and politically, told Deadline.

So far, the anticipated multibillion-dollar federal incentive also has the advantage of backing by some members of the House Ways & Means Committee, which controls the purse strings, and that support is bipartisan. Among those said to be working on legislation are two members — Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R-TX) and Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-CA) — each from a state that has a lot of production in its past, present and hopefully future.

RELATED: Sacramento’s Mad Legislative Dash To Fix Tax Credits SNAFU, Get Post-Production Incentive Passed, Or Not

That said, even though proponents see the best prospects in years for passage of something, there still is a long way to go despite the backing of a fickle POTUS and the other good intentions.

Here are some of the hurdles ahead:

Timing

With so few days left in the legislative session before the midterms, there just isn’t time left to pass legislation before then, especially a bill that is still in the works. Advocates including studio representatives and union officials are expected to up their PR campaign in the coming weeks, particularly if there is a concrete proposal on the table.

RELATED: The Enemy Of My Enemy: Left And Right Search For Common Ground To Prop Up U.S. Entertainment Business

That leaves the question of when. The lame-duck session will likely focus on whether an agreement can be reached on an overall bill to fund the government, with an expiration of December 11. If the past is any guide, it’s much more likely that the bill would be attached to some end-of-year funding measure than as stand-alone legislation.

Midterm results

While a number of Republicans and Democrats are said to be on board with the legislation now, the question is what the sentiment will feel like after November 3. Would polarization only harden after a Democratic rout? What’s the appetite for bipartisan legislation if the election results are contested? That said, there is a strong desire to pass incentives legislation this year, rather than restart the process in the next Congress, when priorities could very well shift.

Cost

Supporters of state tax incentives long have held that the benefits greatly outweigh the costs, but there will be plenty of scrutiny on the bottom line. That typically comes via an analysis from the Congressional Budget Office, so expect to see a lobbying push to outline how the incentive will save or restore jobs.

RELATED: California Governor Frontrunner Xavier Becerra Wants To Save Hollywood, But Offers Few Specifics

A key factor will be whether the ultimate incentive figure is large enough to persuade producers to forgo the UK or Australia or even Canada and locate in the United States. One of the big criticisms of California’s early incentive program was that it was too little, too late, especially with states like New York and Georgia offering much heftier sums of money. Proponents will have to make the case that the incentive will have to be large enough to be meaningful.

Indications are that the bulk of what is being discussed behind closed doors is based in large part on the format and execution of California’s annual program, now at $750 million. A goal of any federal incentive is to snag relocating productions, series or films first made outside the country or content that had already been assured foreign credits but haven’t yet started production.

Trump

With a few words from his pal Jon Voight, the president threw his support behind an incentive earlier this month, undoubtedly generating some momentum for getting something passed. But he also could change his mind. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that something will trigger him — particularly entertainment-related — that would cause him to shift course.

RELATED Trump Backs Federal Film & TV Tax Incentive: “Hollywood Is A Complete & Total Disaster!”

Among proponents, there’s also a push to highlight support among Republicans, in part to emphasize that the legislation would not just benefit California and New York. That could counterweight the visibility of one of the champions of a federal incentive, California’s junior senator Schiff, one of the president’s biggest foes. He recently told CNN: “Just because it’s this president, if it’s a good idea, I’m not going to oppose it. In fact, I fully support this.”

Asked by Elex Michaelson whether his relationship with the president would make passage more difficult, Schiff said, Schiff noted that Trump has “mentioned bipartisan support, mentioned my support for it, so he didn’t deterred at all by it. He thought that that was a positive.”

The entertainment industry is an easy punching bag, especially on the right, and it’s not hard to see the incentive being cast as a bailout to an elite industry dominated by the left. The Wall Street Journal editorial page quickly weighed in last week, with the headline, “Handouts for Hollywood — Really? Adam Schiff and Donald Trump unite to subsidize the rich and famous.”

“A production tax credit would provide a short-term stimulus for one industry, which primarily supports Democrats,” the Journal‘s editorial team wrote.

RELATED: Illinois Boosts State Film Tax Credit For Environmentally Sustainable Productions

That’s why the support of lawmakers in red states such as Texas, Louisiana and Tennessee might be critical, even with Trump’s backing, as well as the emphasis on legislation as a jobs bill, benefiting an aspect of the manufacturing sector and across different parts of the country.

The Motion Picture Association knows the territory well, as it has sought to make issues like piracy and copyright relevant to the average public whose impressions of the entertainment industry tend toward red carpets and awards show glamour. “The use of the word ‘Hollywood’ has got to stop,” says one booster.