Ranking the World Cup 2026 groups: Which teams are favourites to progress?

A record 48 teams will contest this summer’s World Cup, with 12 groups making up the first stage of the tournament.

Twelve seeded teams are spread out across the groups, including the three host nations and eight top-ranked countries. The four highest-ranked teams – Spain, Argentina, France and England – were placed in separate sections, or quadrants, of a new tennis-style seeded tournament bracket.

Recommended Stories

list of 4 itemsend of list

FIFA said the top four nations, if they finish first in their respective round-robin groups, will avoid each other until the semifinals.

The top two teams from each group will automatically proceed to the round of 32, where they will be joined by the eight best third-placed sides.

Before the big kickoff, we’ve ranked the groups from hardest to easiest and picked the two favourites to automatically advance from each group.

Kylian Mbappe celebrates
France are aiming to make their third successive World Cup final [File: Dylan Martinez/Reuters]

Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway

The “group of death” at this year’s World Cup appears to be Group I, with the four teams having the highest average FIFA ranking.

France are one of the favourites to lift the title and are looking to make their third consecutive final appearance, while Senegal are one of the strongest African nations.

Erling Haaland’s Norway are dark horses and Iraq – who faced the most games to qualify – will be no pushovers.

Favourites for automatic qualification: France and Senegal

Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia

With an average world ranking of 26, including seventh-placed Netherlands, this group looks pretty tricky.

Japan were the first nation to qualify for the tournament and recently beat England at Wembley, while Sweden boast the attacking threats of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres.

Tunisia came through qualifying without conceding and will be looking to make the knockouts for the first time.

Favourites for automatic qualification: Netherlands and Japan

Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama

Croatia have reached the final and semifinals in their last two World Cup finals and will once again aim for a deep run in the tournament.

They face England in a mouthwatering opening fixture, as Thomas Tuchel samples tournament football with the Three Lions for the first time.

Carlos Queiroz will look to use all his experience to guide Ghana through the group stage, while Panama head to the tournament as Central America’s highest-ranked side.

England and Croatia should make it through this group, but it will not be a walk in the park for them.

Favourites for automatic qualification: England and Croatia

Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland

With two teams in the top 10 of FIFA’s rankings, this group looks to be pretty competitive.

Brazil are not the powerhouse they once were, but Carlo Ancelotti’s side will still be heavy favourites to qualify in top spot.

Eventual African Cup of Nations champions Morocco will look to repeat their heroics from 2022 and are likely to be the biggest challengers to Brazil.

Scotland and Haiti will likely battle for third place, but they could also spring an upset against the two higher-ranked teams.

Favourites for automatic qualification: Brazil and Morocco

INTERACTIVE - World Cup Winners History-1777297914

Group K: Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia 

Portugal and Colombia look like the strong favourites in this group, but do not count out playoff victors DR Congo or debutants Uzbekistan.

Fabio Cannavaro will lead the Central Asian side at their first World Cup, with Manchester City’s Abdukodir Khusanov amongst their ranks.

Colombia made their first Copa America final in more than 20 years in 2024 and will look to push Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal for top spot.

Favourites for automatic qualification: Portugal and Colombia

Group H: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay

Spain are many people’s favourites for this tournament, with La Roja looking to follow up their successful Euro 2024 campaign with another trophy.

Their match-up with Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay will be one of the games to watch in the group stages, with the two sides likely vying for top spot.

Saudia Arabia showed that they can spring an upset at Qatar 2022 and they’ll likely be battling Cape Verde for third place.

Favourites for automatic qualification: Spain and Uruguay

Group E: Germany, Curacao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador 

While the average FIFA ranking in this group is the second-lowest out of all the groups, this still looks like a challenging pool of teams.

Germany are quietly on a good run of form and will be desperate to reach the knockouts after successive World Cup group stage exits.

Ecuador will be looking to put on a strong showing this summer after finishing second in South American qualifying to Argentina. They have Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo amongst their ranks.

Ivory Coast have enjoyed recent Africa Cup of Nations success and beat France in a warm-up match, while debutants Curacao are an unknown quantity.

Favourites for automatic qualification: Germany and Ecuador

Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan

Argentina have been handed a kind draw this year, with the defending champions likely to emerge as group winners.

Austria and Algeria are closely matched in the FIFA rankings and their game against each other is likely to decide second place in the group.

Jordan may be making their debut, but they will not be easy opponents. They were runners-up in the 2023 Asian Cup and scored 32 goals in qualifying, remaining unbeaten on the road.

Favourites for automatic qualification: Argentina and Austria

Azteca Stadium lit up as the sun sets with dark clouds overhead
Mexico City’s Azteca Stadium will host the opening game of the tournament [File: Luis Cortes/Reuters]

Group A: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czech Republic

This looks to be one of the easier groups with an average FIFA ranking of 35.

Cohosts Mexico will lean on home advantage and look to have a strong chance of finishing in the top two.

South Korea were the only side to be unbeaten in Asian qualifying and should be battling for second spot with the Czech Republic, who are led by 74-year-old Miroslav Koubek.

South Africa have never reached the knockout stages at the World Cup, but they could sneak a third-place passage into the round of 32.

Favourites for automatic qualification: Mexico and South Korea

Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand

This looks to be a pretty comfortable group for Belgium, even if the days of the “golden generation” are now in the past. None of their opponents have ever made it out of the group at a World Cup, with Rudi Garcia’s side expected to come out on top.

Egypt, led by star man Mohamed Salah, have never won a World Cup match but will fancy their chances against Iran and New Zealand.

Iran’s preparations have been chaotic given the US-Israel war on their country, and it is hard to predict the effect this will have on them, while New Zealand look set for an uphill struggle as the lowest-ranked team in the tournament.

Favourites for automatic qualification: Belgium and Egypt

INTERACTIVE - World Cup 2026 stadiumsposter-1779597825

Group D: United States, Paraguay, Turkiye, Australia

Despite having the second-highest average FIFA ranking, this looks to be one of the easier groups, with the cohosts handed a kind draw.

The US are the top-ranked team at world number 16 and coach Mauricio Pochettino will be banking on Christian Pulisic to guide them out of the group.

While this group lacks a standout star, it should be very competitive. Turkiye, who qualified via the playoffs, look most likely to finish in the top two alongside the US.

Paraguay and Australia are the lowest-ranked teams in the group, but will both fancy their chances of getting out of the group.

Favourites for automatic qualification: US and Turkiye

Group B: Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland

This group has an average FIFA ranking of 42, the lowest in the tournament. But, much like Group D, what it lacks in quality it should make up for in competitiveness.

Switzerland are the top-ranked team and have plenty of pedigree at making the knockout stages of major tournaments.

Cohosts Canada have a miserable record at World Cup finals, but they’ll be hoping that home advantage can spur them on under Jesse Marsch.

Bosnia and Herzegovina knocked Italy out in the playoffs and will be eyeing up an automatic qualification spot from this group, while 2023 Asian Cup champions Qatar will also fancy their chances of springing a surprise or two.

Favourites for automatic qualification: Switzerland and Canada

Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *