Blog

Crypto analyst Luke Martin noted that Bitcoin’s volatility over the past 30 days has fallen below that of technology stocks, indicating a rare signal in the market.

According to Martin, Bitcoin’s realized volatility falling below that of the QQQ fund, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, stands out as a development seen only once or twice a year. The analyst stated that Bitcoin has remained unusually calm during a period when other assets have exhibited similarly sharp movements to the cryptocurrency market.

According to shared historical data, Bitcoin rose by an average of 20.58% over a seven-day period following 12 instances where this signal emerged. The average 30-day return after the signal was 141.81%, showing that Bitcoin gained value in all 12 instances examined.

Looking at longer-term data, the 60-day average return was recorded at 359.72%, and the success rate at 91.67%. In the 90-day period following the signal, all 11 events examined showed an increase, with an average return of 635.94%. In the 180-day period, all 10 events resulted in a positive outcome, with an average return of 731.96%.

Martin argued that similar periods in the past have favored Bitcoin bulls, describing the current low volatility as “the calm before the storm.”

However, it should be remembered that past performance does not guarantee future price movements and high ratios are based on a limited number of historical observations.

*This is not investment advice.

After momentarily surpassing one of its strongest usage milestones in recent months, on-chain payment activity on the $XRP Ledger has seen a sharp reversal. At the beginning of August, the daily payment volume between accounts surged above one billion $XRP, but within a day, it fell by about 90%, demonstrating how erratic network activity still is.

Does demand exist on the $XRP Ledger?

On-chain data from XRPL indicates that the volume of payments exceeded one billion $XRP on Aug. 1 before falling back to roughly 100 million $XRP. Although there are frequent sudden increases and decreases on the $XRP Ledger, these kinds of movements typically indicate significant institutional transfers, treasury operations, or exchange-related activity rather than long-term organic demand.

The dramatic decline does not necessarily mean that fewer people are using the network. Rather than marking the start of a new growth trend, it implies that the extraordinary spike was probably caused by a one-time event. On XRPL, isolated spikes in activity that momentarily inflate transaction metrics before swiftly reverting to their long-term averages have become a common occurrence.

That uncertainty is mirrored in price action. After failing to maintain a short-term rising trendline that had bolstered the recovery throughout late July, $XRP is currently trading at about $1.07. The 50-day EMA is still acting as overhead resistance at $1.10, but the asset also fell below its 26-day exponential moving average. Taken together, these moving averages are forcing prices into a more constrained range.

Big picture raises questions

Despite multiple attempts at recovery over the past month, $XRP is still trading far below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating that the general trend still favors sellers. A neutral picture is also painted by momentum indicators.

card

The Relative Strength Index is close to 44, indicating minimal buying pressure without entering oversold territory. This implies that sellers have not yet gained total control, but it also leaves room for further downside in the event that support fails. The immediate support area is between $1.05 and $1.06. If that region is lost, $XRP may experience another shift toward psychological support at $1.00.

On the plus side, regaining the 50-day EMA would be the first significant technical advancement and might pave the way for a challenge to the 100-day moving average around $1.20. For the time being, the decline in payment volume highlights a recurring theme on the $XRP Ledger.

Large one-time transfers can generate eye-catching headline figures, but they are unlikely to change market sentiment or reverse $XRP‘s broader technical decline unless they result in consistently high network activity.

$XRP could be in for a volatile August with promising upside, according to crypto analyst Jay Nisbett.

He believes the token is more likely to move higher than lower this month. Notably, his outlook includes a rally into the $2 range before a sharp pullback.

At the time of writing, $XRP trades at $1.07. It is down 1.0% over the past 24 hours, 3.63% over the past week, and 5.78% over the past month. The token is also down 42% year-to-date, according to CoinMarketCap.

Several August Scenarios for $XRP

In a post on X, Jay Nisbett shared multiple projected price paths for $XRP. He said volatility is possible in both directions, but his overall bias is bullish.

According to Nisbett, $XRP is most likely to trade between $1.02 and the low-$1.30 range during August. From there, it could break into the mid-to-upper $1 range or even reach the low-$2 region.

He noted that any move into those higher levels would be short-lived. A rapid retracement could follow before the broader trend resumes.

Nisbett also said he relies heavily on his chart levels. Once they are plotted, he trusts them “almost blindly.”

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Nisbett’s charts highlight several technical levels that could shape $XRP’s price action throughout the month. His chart uses:

• White dotted lines for the trend-balanced price.
• Blue dotted lines for likely swing highs.
• Green dotted lines for likely swing lows.

He outlined four possible price paths, shown in different colors, but said $XRP will likely move somewhere between them instead of following one exact route.

In one scenario, $XRP climbs to $2.50 before pulling back. In another, it rises more modestly to around $1.60 before falling back to support levels.

Considering $XRP’s current price, these targets present a promising outlook for holders, with potential gains ranging from 49.53% to 134%.

Market Maker Theory Supports Bullish View

Beyond the technical setup, Nisbett also shared a psychological view of the market.

He argued that many traders are waiting for $XRP to return to $1.00 or below, believing it represents the safest buying opportunity. According to him, this hesitation could cause investors to miss the move if the asset never returns to that level.

Instead, he argues many investors may end up buying after $XRP has already climbed into the mid-$1 to $2 range. At that point, larger players could trigger a sharp pullback, catching late buyers off guard.

Nisbett described this as thinking “like a market maker,” implying that markets often move against prevailing retail expectations before establishing a sustained trend.

Although he expects price swings to remain high throughout August, Nisbett still believes $XRP is more likely to move higher in the near term.

$XRP Leverage Remains Low

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows that traders are using much less leverage on $XRP than they did during the strong rallies earlier in 2025.

On July 31, Binance’s open interest in $XRP stablecoin-margined futures fell to about $186 million, its lowest level since April 2025. Bybit recorded the highest open interest at roughly $229 million, while OKX stood at about $49 million.

Most leveraged $XRP trading is now happening on Bybit and Binance, which together account for nearly 89% of the open interest across the three exchanges.

Lower open interest suggests $XRP is trading with fewer leveraged positions than earlier this year. While this alone does not indicate the next price direction, it points to a less crowded derivatives market. Analysts typically evaluate open interest alongside funding rates, trading volume, liquidations, and spot-market demand to assess broader market conditions.

Crypto analyst Javon Marks believes Cardano may be following the same market structure that preceded its explosive 2020–2021 bull run.

In a recent analysis, Marks argued that $ADA is displaying a strikingly similar sequence of price movements, raising the possibility that the token is preparing for another major rally toward its previous all-time highs.

According to him, Cardano’s next significant move could send the asset to nearly $3, representing a gain of more than 1,300% from its current trading price of around $0.19.

Similarities Between $ADA 2018 and 2021 Cycles

The accompanying chart compares Cardano’s current price action with the market cycle that unfolded between 2018 and 2021.

During the previous cycle, $ADA plunged sharply after reaching its 2018 peak of $1.32 before establishing a long-term bottom. It then traded sideways for an extended period, forming a broad accumulation base around $0.02, highlighted by a blue horizontal arrow on the chart. After breaking out of that prolonged consolidation, Cardano entered a powerful bull market that lifted its price to an all-time high of $3.10 in September 2021.

The current cycle appears to be following a similar path. Upon peaking during the 2021 bull market, $ADA entered a prolonged correction characterized by a series of lower highs. More recently, the asset has traded within a descending structure, illustrated by a blue downward-sloping trendline.

According to the analysis, Cardano has now reached the lower end of that multi-year trendline, mirroring the point where it completed its previous accumulation phase before launching its historic breakout.

$2.90 Emerges as the Next Major Target for Cardano

Based on these similarities, Marks believes Cardano could climb through multiple resistance levels before eventually reaching a price target of $2.90. From its current level of $0.1823, that would represent a gain of roughly 1,490%.

The analyst’s projection suggests this move could unfold by early 2028 if $ADA continues to mirror its previous market cycle.

Analyst Maintains Long-Term Bullish Outlook

Cardano has struggled to reclaim its September 2021 all-time high of $3.10 after enduring a prolonged bear market. Nonetheless, several analyses have continued to forecast a long-term recovery, with the $2.90 region emerging as a widely discussed upside target within the Cardano community.

Marks has consistently maintained this bullish outlook. In September 2025, he projected that a falling wedge breakout could initially propel $ADA to around $1.20 before eventually driving the cryptocurrency to $2.91.

A month later, he reiterated his optimism, forecasting a rally toward $2.96 after identifying a confirmed breakout above a long-term descending trendline, accompanied by a developing pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

Now, the analyst has returned with a similar outlook, arguing that Cardano could once again mirror the price action that fueled its historic 2021 rally and eventually climb to $2.90.

Despite his continuous optimism, it is imperative to note that historical patterns do not guarantee future performance.