Category: Business

Traders have no way to react to events after markets close on TradFi venues. Perps on the other hand run 24/7. The Iran conflict was reflected in oil perps on Hyperliquid before CME reopened. Perps offer a continuously running, efficient market in a simple interface. Futures and options come with expiry dates, complicated greeks and interfaces. Perps remove all of that while keeping the speculative upside potential intact.

Martin Lee is Market Insights Lead of DWF Labs, one of the most active market makers and investors in digital assets.

Derivatives always outgrow spot

Derivatives volumes always outgrow their underlying spot market. It’s what we see in equities, commodities and crypto. RWAs are following the same trend. Equity perp volume on Hyperliquid ran 13-20x tokenized equity spot volume between March and May 2026.

You could argue that the number of traders matter more, a metric that spot usually wins out across most markets (except commodities). Looking into the numbers, tokenized equities have the bigger base: 180,845 wallets against 24,378 for equity perps. But perp holders are compounding at roughly 33% a month against spot’s 17%. Even in the domain where spot dominates, perps are rapidly closing the gap.

Perps innovate faster

The biggest factor driving the acceleration is the rapid rate of experimentation that RWA perps are able to have. Launching tokenized assets takes much longer and is more legally complex than launching a new perp market. The ease of launching perp markets creates opportunities for novel synthetic markets to be spun up. Markets that unlock fresh opportunities that didn’t exist before. A true 0 to 1 moment.

Coinbase said it captured a record 10.3% share of global crypto trading volume during the quarter, its third consecutive quarterly gain. Analysts at Benchmark, Oppenheimer, Clear Street and Cantor all highlighted the figure as evidence that trading activity is consolidating onto larger regulated exchanges during periods of market stress.

Several also pointed to derivatives, where Coinbase reported flat trading volumes despite management saying the broader derivatives market declined by double digits.

Diversification shows progress, but isn’t enough

Analysts viewed Coinbase’s push beyond spot trading as encouraging, even though the newer businesses remain too small to offset weakness in core trading revenue.

The company is trying to diversify through prediction markets, derivatives, subscriptions, stablecoins and its Base blockchain. Prediction markets surpassed a $100 million annualized revenue run rate, while Coinbase One topped one million paid subscribers. Its Circle partnership for USDC also renewed on existing terms, removing a key concern for investors.

Still, there was broad agreement that diversification has not yet become large enough to replace lost trading revenue.

Clear Street noted new businesses continue gaining traction but remain “optionality” rather than meaningful earnings contributors. Barclays was more critical, arguing prediction markets and retail derivatives “did not” provide the boost they offered last quarter. Compass Point similarly said emerging businesses “barely moved the needle.”

James’ office described Kalshi’s event contracts as bets and said the platform takes wagers on professional and college sports, elections and culture. The lawsuit alleges Kalshi allows users aged 18 to 20 to wager and lists markets involving New York college teams, both prohibited for licensed sportsbooks in the state.

“New York’s gambling ⁠laws protect children from underage betting and help combat gambling addiction,” James said in the statement. “No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like ​Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple.”

The World Cup helped boost Kalshi’s numbers, adding 3 million during the course of the tournament, according to CNBC. That’s more than double the 2 million the firm said it had at the start of May.

According to the attorney general’s statement, the lawsuit follows an October cease-and-desist order from the New York State Gaming Commission.

A federal judge denied Kalshi’s bid to block state regulators on July 7 and rejected an injunction pending appeal on July 27.

CoinDesk approached Kalshi for comment outside of regular U.S. office hours, and had not heard back by publication time.

The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is struggling to find direction around the $64,000 level amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy and geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

As $BTC continues to move within a narrow range, attention in the cryptocurrency markets has turned to the high-volume option contracts expiring today.

These options are particularly significant because they fall on the last Friday of both the week and the month.

According to weekly data, approximately $9.7 billion worth of crypto options will expire on the Deribit derivatives exchange on July 31.

According to Deribit data, $9.69 billion worth of Bitcoin and $830 million worth of Ethereum options will expire.

Accordingly, the Put/Call ratio for $BTC options is 0.28, while the maximum loss point is $64,000 and the intrinsic value is $9.69 billion.

Looking at Ethereum, $ETH options have a Put/Call ratio of 0.63, a maximum stop-loss point of $1,850, and a nominal value of $830 million.

What Do Options Mean for Bitcoin and Ethereum?

The put/call ratio is 0.28 for Bitcoin and 0.63 for Ethereum, indicating that investors are generally betting on higher returns and expecting an upward trend.

For $BTC, this indicates that the majority of investors are positioned for prices to rise, or that bullish expectations are more dominant. A low ratio like 0.28 points to an optimistic (bullish) market outlook.

In contrast, while call options still dominate for $ETH, this indicates that investors are more cautious compared to Bitcoin. However, according to experts, the put/call ratio and the expiration of options are not considered the sole determining factors of price direction. Macroeconomic developments and investor sentiment also continue to be decisive in pricing.

*This is not investment advice.

The $XRP price traded around $1.07 on Thursday, continuing to consolidate below a key descending trendline that has capped price action for months. The token remains stuck between a crucial support zone and overhead resistance, with the narrowing range signaling that a decisive move could be on the horizon.

While the broader trend has remained weak, traders are closely watching the $1.10 resistance level, as a breakout above it could shift market sentiment and open the door to further upside. Conversely, losing nearby support could expose $XRP to another leg lower.

$XRP Technical Analysis: Weekly Chart Nears a Critical Turning Point

$XRP continued to trade within a descending triangle on the weekly timeframe, with the price hovering around $1.07. The token has consistently formed lower highs since its rejection from the yearly peak, while buyers have defended the $1.04-$1.05 support zone, keeping the broader consolidation intact.

The immediate resistance lies between $1.10 and $1.12, where the descending trendline intersects with a previous support-turned-resistance zone. A weekly close above this range could invalidate the recent sequence of lower highs and pave the way for a move toward $1.20, while a break below $1.04 could expose $XRP to the next support near $0.93.

The RSI is hovering near 33, indicating that bearish momentum remains dominant, although selling pressure has eased compared with earlier declines. Meanwhile, the CMF remains below the zero line, suggesting capital outflows still outweigh inflows despite signs of stabilization. Together, these indicators point to weakening bearish momentum, but they have yet to confirm a sustained bullish reversal.

$XRP Derivatives Data Signals Cautious Optimism

Beyond the price chart, $XRP’s derivatives data points to a market waiting for a catalyst. CoinGlass’ liquidation heatmap shows a significant cluster of short liquidations stacked above the $1.10-$1.12 resistance zone. If buyers manage to push the token above this level, forced short liquidations could amplify buying pressure and accelerate $XRP’s move toward the next resistance levels.

On the downside, long liquidation pockets are concentrated around $1.04 and below. A breakdown beneath this support could trigger another round of long liquidations, potentially extending $XRP’s decline toward the $0.93 support zone.

Meanwhile, Open Interest (OI) has stabilized after declining sharply from its earlier highs, suggesting leveraged positions have cooled. While the recent uptick in OI indicates traders are gradually returning to the market, it remains well below previous peak levels. A sustained increase in both $XRP’s price and Open Interest would indicate fresh capital entering the market, strengthening the case for a bullish breakout. Conversely, a price rally without a meaningful rise in OI could suggest the move is driven primarily by short covering rather than new buying interest.

Together, the liquidation heatmap and Open Interest data suggest traders are positioning for higher volatility, with the $1.10-$1.12 resistance zone likely to determine $XRP’s next directional move.

$XRP Price Outlook: Can Price Rise Above $1.2?

$XRP price remains at a critical technical juncture, with price continuing to consolidate below a key descending trendline while holding above the $1.04 support zone. Although momentum indicators suggest selling pressure is easing, bulls still need to reclaim $1.10-$1.12 to confirm a shift in market structure.

A decisive breakout above this resistance, supported by rising volume and Open Interest, could trigger a short squeeze and open the door for a move toward $1.20 in the near term. If buying momentum strengthens further, $XRP could extend its rally toward the $1.45 resistance level.

On the downside, failure to hold the $1.04 support could invalidate the bullish setup and expose $XRP to the next support at $0.93. A deeper sell-off could see the token revisit the $0.75 zone if bearish momentum accelerates.

For now, the $1.10-$1.12 resistance and $1.04 support remain the key levels to watch, as a breakout from this range is likely to determine $XRP’s next major move.

Ripple is getting ready to unlock 1 billion $XRP from escrow tomorrow, August 1, worth about $1.08 billion based on the $XRP price of $1.08 at the time of writing.

The upcoming unlock is part of Ripple’s long-standing escrow schedule, according to which the company typically unlocks 1 billion $XRP on the first day of each month.

With the token’s circulating supply currently at about 62.52 billion $XRP, the new release will increase it by roughly 1.6%, although Ripple is likely to return a large portion of the unlocked tokens to escrow.

How much $XRP will Ripple unlock tomorrow?

Indeed, although the company unlocks 1 billion $XRP every month, it usually re-locks a large portion of the batch (between 60% and 80%) to a new escrow contract.

So far, Ripple has re-locked on average 700 million $XRP every month in 2026, reducing the amount that went into circulation to just 300 million $XRP per month.

At press time, roughly 32.44 billion $XRP is held in escrow, valued at approximately $34.72, according to data from XRPSCAN.

What does the Ripple escrow mean for $XRP prices?

As the upcoming release follows a strict schedule introduced in 2017, the market is unlikely to react in any meaningful way to what amounts to a routine event. Indeed, previous monthly escrows generated very little immediate volatility in $XRP’s price.

$XRP’s performance this year is more dependent on broader cryptocurrency market trends, regulatory developments, and Bitcoin (BTC) moves.

A more important short-term catalyst has come in the shape of the U.S. CLARITY Act , which remains a major factor in every $XRP price prediction 2026, some of which see the cryptocurrency trading somewhere between $1.15 and $1.25 by next week’s voting date.

Featured image via Shutterstock

The numbers keep refusing to cooperate with the narrative crypto traders want. The latest U.S. economic releases—weekly jobless claims at 197,000 for the week ending July 25, and June’s core PCE inflation reading of 3.3% year-over-year—signal that the labor market remains tight and price pressures are not fading fast. The data, covered in the original report, landed below the expected 200,000 claims and matched inflation forecasts, yet the combination leaves little room for the aggressive rate cuts that many digital-asset investors had penciled in for late 2026.

Bitcoin and ether have spent the year so far responding decisively to every shift in Fed expectations. When soft data appeared, crypto jumped. When hawkish rhetoric returned, rallies stalled. This dynamic is not new, but it is becoming more unpredictable because the macro picture refuses to settle. Today’s print doesn’t collapse the soft-landing thesis, but it certainly keeps the pressure on markets that had started to anticipate easing as a near certainty.

What the Data Actually Says

Initial claims came in at 197,000, below the consensus 200,000, and the prior week’s reading was revised up only slightly to 188,000. That level of claims is low enough to suggest employers are still holding onto workers. No layoff wave is building. Meanwhile, the core personal consumption expenditures index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 3.3% year-over-year in June, in line with expectations but only a marginal improvement from 3.4% the previous month. The progress is slow.

For crypto market structure, this matters because it directly shapes the cost of capital. If the Fed keeps rates elevated longer, the dollar remains strong and liquidity stays tighter. That environment historically doesn’t favor speculative assets that rely on cheap leverage. Yet the crypto market has not responded as a monolith this year. Some sectors have detached from the macro correlation entirely, while others remain tethered to it.

The Fed Is Not in a Hurry, and That’s a Problem for Leverage

The central bank’s communication has been consistent: it needs sustained evidence that inflation is moving toward 2% before cutting. A core PCE reading of 3.3% doesn’t offer that evidence. With the labor market still absorbing workers, there is no urgency. That leaves rate-sensitive crypto strategies—especially those relying on borrowed stablecoins or leveraged futures—exposed if the time horizon for cuts extends into 2027. We are already seeing a repricing across DeFi lending protocols where utilization rates reflect cautious positioning.

At the same time, the regulatory backdrop adds another layer. While macro data dominates day-to-day price action, structural developments in Washington are creating parallel narratives. Major legislation working through the Senate could redefine how institutions interact with digital assets, potentially offsetting some of the macro headwinds if a clearer framework emerges. Still, bill text doesn’t move markets the way a CPI print does.

Which Parts of Crypto Are Ignoring the Noise

Not every token is suffering. Weekly gainers show that idiosyncratic catalysts still carry weight. Tokens like TON and SIREN posted notable rallies driven by network-specific news rather than macro flow. The divergence suggests that while macro sets the broad environment, on-chain and protocol-level developments can still overpower it for short stretches. This fragmentation is increasingly the story of 2026: a market where Bitcoin and ether trade like macro assets, but the rest of the space moves on its own clock.

Real-world asset tokenization is another area that continues to expand regardless of Fed timing. A recent weekly roundup showed RWA totals crossing $20 billion on-chain, with major institutional deals closing. That growth is being driven by settlement efficiency and yield demand, not by rate-cut speculation. It’s a reminder that crypto’s infrastructure layer is maturing in ways that don’t require a dovish Fed to keep building.

What Remains Uncertain

The biggest open question isn’t whether inflation will decline further—it almost certainly will, but at an agonizing pace. The uncertainty is whether risk assets can sustain their current valuations if the market begins to price out cuts for the next 12 months. Crypto has already shown it can trade sideways for extended periods, but sentiment can shift quickly when the macro story changes. The next few PCE prints will be critical, and traders are now likely to return to>For now, the message is clear. The U.S. economy isn’t cooling fast enough to justify the kind of monetary loosening that had become the base case for many crypto participants. That doesn’t make the trade broken, but it does mean that positioning for a rapid pivot is riskier than it seemed a month ago. Attention now turns to the Fed’s next meeting and whether officials see this data as a temporary plateau or a sign that the final mile of inflation fighting will take longer than anyone hoped.