Category: Business

  • Microsoft Quietly Adds New Windows App That Wants to Scan Your Face

    Microsoft Quietly Adds New Windows App That Wants to Scan Your Face

    In brief

    • Microsoft is rolling out a new OneDrive Photos app to some Windows 11 PCs.
    • The app indexes local photo libraries and adds AI-powered search and optional facial grouping.
    • The rollout follows Microsoft’s broader push to integrate AI features into Windows.

    Some Windows 11 users are discovering a new Microsoft app they never installed. Called OneDrive Photos, it automatically indexes local images and offers AI-powered search and optional facial grouping.

    The rollout, first spotted by industry publication Windows Latest, comes via Windows Update or updates to the existing OneDrive client rather than as a separate download.

    According to Windows Latest, OneDrive Photos can detect and display images stored locally on a PC even if the user is not signed into a Microsoft account. After signing in, the app enables AI-powered search that can locate photos using natural-language queries and optical character recognition.

    The app also includes an optional People feature that groups similar faces, which are visible only to the user, aren’t shared with third parties, and can be deleted by disabling the feature. However, Windows Latest noted that the feature requires users to opt in because facial data may be considered biometric information in some jurisdictions.

    The news comes two years after Microsoft was forced to overhaul its AI-powered Recall feature following a privacy backlash that prompted the company to make the screenshotting tool opt in by default.

    More recently, in May, Google began downloading its roughly 4GB Gemini Nano AI model to eligible Chrome installations through browser updates to power on-device AI features, adding to concerns about AI capabilities arriving through routine software updates.

    According to Windows Latest, OneDrive Photos is tied to the existing OneDrive client and cannot currently be removed on its own. Users who want to uninstall the app must remove OneDrive entirely from Windows.

    Microsoft did not immediately respond to a request for comment by Decrypt.

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  • Long-term bearish trend threatens Bitcoin Cash’s recovery from $200

    Long-term bearish trend threatens Bitcoin Cash’s recovery from $200

    Bitcoin Cash [$BCH] fell below a range that it had traded within for over two years. The critical support level at $272 was shattered by the selling pressure in May. A test of the $188 long-term support yielded a bounce to $240, which has begun to reverse since the end of June.

    The altcoin’s relative strength against Bitcoin [BTC] evaporated in May. In that month, $BCH had shed nearly 42%, a sizeable decline that continued into June.

    With Bitcoin struggling to climb back above $67k, and the market maintaining a bearish bias, here’s what Bitcoin Cash investors need to watch out for.

    Will Bitcoin Cash bulls sink or swim at $200?

    Source: $BCH/$USDT on TradingView

    As covered earlier, the downward momentum picked up in May. The MFI raced from 49.8 in the second week of May to 14.64 by the third week of June. Similarly, the CMF also slid below -0.05 to indicate incessant selling underway.

    In August 2023, the swing low at $165.4 had been the one that propelled the Bitcoin Cash uptrend up to $719. Therefore, this swing low is the one that must be breached to flip the weekly swing structure bearishly.

    It appeared likely that this bearish scenario would soon unfold.

    Lower timeframe Bitcoin Cash price action shows bullish signs

    Source: $BCH/$USDT on TradingView

    The 4-hour chart had a bullish swing structure. The CMF was at +0.12, showing buying pressure was dominant. Yet, the token was in a retracement phase. Over the past week, the buyers have desperately defended the $209.3 support.

    A drop toward $196.9 would not be a buying opportunity, given the higher timeframe downtrend.

    Source: CoinGlass

    The rally toward $255 likely came as a liquidity hunt. There still is a pocket of unswept short liquidations around $260. The rally earlier this month peaked at $255 and has retraced since then.

    In the short-term, despite the H4 chart’s structure, a bounce up to $227 and $243 were possible. It was more likely that prices would continue below $200, due to the bearish momentum seen since May.


    Final Summary

    • The Bitcoin Cash range of over two years was shattered by the strength of selling in May and early June.
    • The long-term bearish momentum is likely to continue and push $BCH below $200.

  • Breaking: CFTC Loses Fight to Protect Kalshi in Wisconsin Prediction Markets Case

    Breaking: CFTC Loses Fight to Protect Kalshi in Wisconsin Prediction Markets Case

    Kalshi’s fight to keep its sports prediction contracts under federal protection just hit a major roadblock. A Wisconsin federal judge has refused to block state gambling laws against Kalshi and four other major prediction platforms, rejecting the CFTC’s push for exclusive federal control.

    Wisconsin Court Rejects CFTC’s Emergency Push

    On July 29, 2026, U.S. District Judge William Griesbach denied the CFTC’s request for a preliminary injunction against Wisconsin. The regulator wanted the court to stop the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction platforms offering sports event contracts.

    The CFTC argued that federally regulated prediction markets fall under its exclusive jurisdiction. However, the court rejected that argument at this stage, finding that registration with the CFTC does not automatically shield these platforms from state gambling laws.

    The court also rejected motions from Kalshi and Crypto.com to intervene in the CFTC’s case.

    Judge Says CFTC Rules May Not Override States

    The decision centers on preemption, or whether federal law overrides state law. Judge Griesbach found that the Commodity Exchange Act does not automatically cancel Wisconsin’s gambling rules.

    The court also indicated that the plain language of Wisconsin’s gambling laws could cover sports-related event contracts.

    That creates a key problem for Kalshi and other prediction markets. While these platforms describe their contracts as financial products, state regulators argue that contracts tied to sports outcomes are effectively sports bets.

    The judge also found that the CFTC had not shown enough “irreparable harm” to justify blocking Wisconsin from enforcing its laws.

    Five Prediction Markets Are Already Facing Wisconsin Lawsuits

    The ruling follows Wisconsin’s April lawsuits against Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood and Coinbase. The state claims the platforms offered sports contracts without the required gaming licenses, violating Wisconsin gambling laws under Chapter 945.

    The CFTC responded by suing Wisconsin, arguing that states cannot interfere with federally regulated derivatives markets.

    That broader fight has now created a major regulatory clash between Washington and state authorities.

    Where The Wisconsin Sports Case Is Heading Next

    The Wisconsin decision adds to an increasingly divided legal landscape. The 3rd Circuit in New Jersey has ruled in favor of Kalshi’s position that federal law can preempt state restrictions.

    For now, the Wisconsin cases are expected to return to state court. Legal expert Daniel Wallach said Wisconsin judges could issue preliminary injunctions preventing prediction platforms from offering sports contracts in the state.

    BREAKING: CFTC loses BIG in Wisconsin, as federal court denies its motion for preliminary injunction and holds that sports-event contracts are not “swaps,” and, that even if they satisfied definition, CFTC is unlikely to prevail on its argument that the CEA preempts state law. pic.twitter.com/a9vf8HfKIc

    — Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) July 29, 2026

    Kalshi and the CFTC are also expected to appeal the decision to the 7th Circuit, setting up another major test of who ultimately controls America’s fast-growing prediction market industry.

  • What Are Tokenized Stocks? The $9 Billion Trend Explained

    What Are Tokenized Stocks? The $9 Billion Trend Explained

    Imagine buying a slice of Apple stock at 3 a.m. on a Sunday, settling in seconds, from a crypto wallet, with no broker involved. That is the promise of tokenized stocks, and it stopped being theoretical this year: on-chain transfer volume for tokenized equities reached $9.22 billion in a single month. This guide explains what tokenized stocks actually are, how they work, who is building them, what you really own when you buy one, and the risks that most coverage skips.

    What are tokenized stocks?

    A tokenized stock is a blockchain-based token that represents ownership or economic exposure to a real company’s shares. Instead of your Apple or Tesla position living only in a broker’s database, a token representing it lives on a blockchain, where it can be transferred, traded, or used in other applications around the clock.

    The key word is “represents.” In most current models, an authorized issuer buys and holds the actual shares with a regulated custodian, then issues tokens backed one-to-one against them. The token tracks the share’s value and, depending on the product, may pass through dividends. You are typically holding a claim on a share rather than the registered share itself, which is the single most important distinction to understand before buying one.

    Why anyone bothers: the actual advantages

    Traditional stock markets run on infrastructure built decades ago, with fixed hours and multi-day settlement. Tokenization targets exactly those limits.

    Trading never closes. Blockchains do not have opening bells. Tokenized equities can trade on weekends and overnight, which matters enormously for investors outside US time zones who currently trade American stocks at inconvenient hours or not at all.

    Settlement is near-instant. Traditional equity settlement takes a business day or more. On-chain settlement happens in seconds, freeing capital and removing counterparty risk in the gap.

    Fractional access is native. Tokens divide easily, so a $500 share can be bought in tiny increments without a broker building that feature.

    Global reach. Someone in a country with limited access to US brokerage accounts can, in principle, hold exposure to US equities through a wallet.

    Composability. This is the crypto-native advantage: a tokenized stock can be used inside decentralized finance applications, for example as collateral, in ways a brokerage position cannot.

    How big is this actually?

    Big enough to stop being a curiosity. Monthly on-chain transfer volume for tokenized stocks reached $9.22 billion in June 2026 (live RWA data on rwa.xyz), a sharp increase that reflects real usage rather than pilot projects.

    The activity is heavily concentrated on Solana, which handles roughly 95% of global tokenized equity trading volume, with single-day records around $644 million. The trend reached a symbolic milestone when Securitize, a tokenization firm, tokenized $295 million of its own stock on Solana on the day of its NYSE debut, the largest issuer-sponsored tokenized stock at launch.

    Institutional infrastructure is following. Moody’s launched credit ratings for tokenized assets, South Korea has explored tokenizing government bonds and state assets, and traditional finance firms have been building settlement rails on public blockchains. Ripple and BCG have projected the broader tokenized real-world asset market could exceed $19 trillion across blockchains by 2033, a forecast worth treating as directional rather than precise.

    What you actually own (read this part twice)

    This is where enthusiasm meets fine print, and it deserves plain language.

    In most tokenized stock products, you do not become a shareholder of record. You typically hold a token issued by a company, backed by shares that company or its custodian holds. That usually means no voting rights, dividend treatment that depends on the specific product, and, critically, a dependency on the issuer remaining solvent and honest.

    Compare that with a normal brokerage account, where you are a beneficial owner with regulatory protections, insurance schemes in many jurisdictions, and a clear legal claim. Tokenized stocks trade convenience for a different, generally thinner, set of protections. That is a legitimate trade for some investors, but it is a trade, not a free upgrade.

    The risks

    Issuer and custody risk. Your token is only as good as the entity holding the underlying shares. If that issuer fails or the backing is not what it claims, the token’s value is at risk regardless of what the real stock does.

    Regulatory uncertainty. Rules for tokenized securities are still forming in most jurisdictions. Products can be restricted, geo-blocked, or forced to change structure. Availability to US retail investors in particular is limited and shifting.

    Liquidity gaps. Headline volume is concentrated in a handful of popular names. A thinly traded tokenized stock can have wide spreads and poor exits, especially during volatility.

    Price tracking can break. In stressed markets, a token’s price can drift from the underlying share, particularly when traditional markets are closed and there is no way to arbitrage the gap efficiently.

    Smart contract risk. These are blockchain products, and blockchain products can have code vulnerabilities, as DeFi’s history shows.

    Corporate actions get messy. Splits, mergers, and special dividends are straightforward in traditional markets and genuinely complicated to represent on-chain.

    Who is building tokenized stocks

    The ecosystem splits roughly into three groups. Tokenization specialists like Securitize handle issuance and compliance infrastructure. Blockchains compete to host the activity, with Solana currently dominant on volume thanks to low fees and fast settlement, while Ethereum hosts much of the broader real-world asset market. And trading venues, both crypto exchanges and emerging on-chain platforms, provide the access layer.

    An interesting wrinkle: because Solana’s fees are so low, billions in tokenized stock volume generate relatively little direct fee revenue for the network. Hosting the boom and monetizing it are not the same thing, which is a genuine open question for the chains involved.

    Is this the future of stock trading?

    The honest answer is that it is a real trend with real limits. The advantages, continuous trading, instant settlement, global access, are genuine and solve actual problems that traditional market infrastructure has not. Institutional adoption is no longer speculative: rating agencies, governments, and NYSE-listed firms are participating.

    But the ownership structure is weaker than direct share ownership, regulation is unsettled, and most volume today comes from crypto-native traders rather than mainstream investors. The likely path is not tokenized stocks replacing brokerages, but traditional finance gradually adopting blockchain settlement underneath products that look familiar to investors. Tokenization is more likely to become invisible plumbing than a consumer revolution.

    Bottom line

    Tokenized stocks are blockchain tokens representing real company shares, offering round-the-clock trading, near-instant settlement, fractional ownership, and global access. The trend became substantial in 2026, with $9.22 billion in monthly on-chain volume and Solana handling around 95% of it, alongside serious institutional participation.

    The catch is what you own: usually a claim backed by an issuer rather than a registered share, with fewer protections than a brokerage account and unsettled regulation around it. Tokenized stocks are a genuine infrastructure advance worth understanding, and a product category that demands you read the specific terms before buying, not just the pitch.

    This is not investment advice. Tokenized assets carry issuer, regulatory, and liquidity risks in addition to normal market risk. Always do your own research.

  • Flock Cameras Face Growing Backlash as Privacy Concerns Reach Capitol Hill

    Flock Cameras Face Growing Backlash as Privacy Concerns Reach Capitol Hill

    In brief

    • Rep. Thomas Massie plans legislation that would withhold federal funding from agencies deploying Flock cameras.
    • Local governments from California to Indiana have suspended, canceled, or reconsidered Flock deployments following public opposition.
    • Flock CEO Garrett Langley recently apologized for referring to anti-surveillance activists as “terrorists.”

    Public opposition to Flock Safety’s automated license plate reader cameras is spreading from city council meetings to Capitol Hill as lawmakers prepare legislation targeting federal funding for agencies that deploy the technology while communities across the country reconsider its use.

    The protests come amid mounting evidence that Flock’s technology has been used in ways critics say extend well beyond its stated purpose of investigating crimes and locating missing people.

    A recent report by The Institute for Justice identified over two dozen cases nationwide in which officers resigned or were arrested for allegedly using automated license plate reader systems to stalk current or former romantic partners.

    In February, Milwaukee prosecutors charged an officer accused of using the system to track a romantic partner and her former partner. In July, an internal affairs detective who investigated that case was arrested after authorities alleged he also used Flock to track people for personal reasons.

    Privacy advocates also cite broader uses of the technology. The Electronic Frontier Foundation says agencies searched license plate databases during protests, including the No Kings protests in 2025. That same year, the group reported that Texas deputies queried Flock data during an abortion investigation that authorities initially described as a missing-person case.

    Opposition has also moved beyond public meetings. During June and July, activists across the country spray-painted, taped over, disabled and destroyed Flock cameras in protest of automated surveillance. The Guardian identified at least 33 incidents across 23 states. Online communities have shared camera maps, tips for avoiding the devices and methods for obstructing them, while several people now face criminal charges after allegedly destroying multiple cameras.

    Founded in 2017, Atlanta-based Flock Safety sells internet-connected license plate reader cameras that automatically photograph passing vehicles, read license plates, and use computer vision to identify characteristics such as a vehicle’s make, model, color, decals, roof racks, and other distinguishing features. Participating law enforcement agencies can search the database during criminal investigations, receive alerts when vehicles linked to cases pass a camera, recover stolen vehicles, and locate missing people.

    Flock says its cameras do not use facial recognition and typically retain data for 30 days unless local laws require a different retention period. CEO Garrett Langley said the company takes privacy concerns seriously and believes many critics reconsider their views once they understand how the technology works.

    “Once they understand what the technology actually does, not what it might do in 50 years, not what someone thinks it could do, but what it actually does day in and day out, it takes a picture of a car. Most people go, ‘This makes a lot of sense. I want my kids to be safe,’” Langley told ABC7.

    In a post on X on Saturday, Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie said that he plans to introduce legislation that would withhold federal funding from municipalities and law enforcement agencies that deploy automated license plate reader systems, including Flock cameras.

    The proposal follows a series of disputes over Flock cameras across the United States.

    In St. Petersburg, Florida, 77-year-old Carl Gunn has drawn attention by staging solo protests beneath Flock cameras, holding a sign that blocks their view.

    “This is just another thing to take our information and to spy on us,” Gunn told news outlet Creative Loafing Tampa Bay. “I have a constitutional right to my privacy. I’m a law-abiding citizen, and I don’t need anyone sticking their nose in my business. And if they do, I’m going to chop it off.”

    In Fresno, California, residents packed a community forum to urge city officials to remove Flock cameras, arguing the technology allows broad government surveillance. Police defended the system, saying it helped investigators solve homicide and shooting cases and emphasizing that it does not use facial recognition.

    “We have to find a balance between safety and liberty,” Fresno Police Chief Mindy Casto reportedly said.

    However, not all law enforcement agencies are on board with using Flock cameras and are re-evaluating their use of the technology. On Thursday, the Los Angeles Police Department suspended its partnership with Flock over concerns involving privacy, data sharing, security, and contract terms. Monroe County, Indiana, also voted to end its contract a year early, despite commissioners acknowledging the cameras had helped solve serious crimes. Earlier in July, Leon County, Florida, delayed funding for additional Flock cameras after residents questioned how the data is collected, stored, and shared.

    The scrutiny has prompted a response from the company. Earlier this month, Langley apologized for previously describing anti-Flock activists as a “terroristic organization,” saying the comments were a mistake and that the company has spent more time listening to critics while trying to balance public safety and privacy.

    “My comments were a mistake, and I apologize,” he told Forbes. “There are groups today that have real valid criticisms of the business, and I think what’s changed for us is, as we’ve listened to them and heard them out, what we’re trying to do is find this balance. We believe in a world where we can have safety and privacy.”

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  • Crypto entering biggest consolidation phase in history, says ARK analyst

    Crypto entering biggest consolidation phase in history, says ARK analyst

    An ARK Invest analyst says the cryptocurrency industry is entering what he describes as its biggest consolidation phase yet, with revenue increasingly concentrated among a handful of dominant protocols.

    In a Wednesday post on X, Lorenzo Valente, a research associate at ARK Invest, said investors have become increasingly selective, making it harder for crypto projects and exchanges without strong product-market fit to attract capital. As weaker projects struggle or shut down, revenue is becoming concentrated among a small number of dominant protocols, he said.

    As evidence, Valente said perpetual futures exchange Hyperliquid and memecoin launchpad Pump.fun account for roughly 67% of total crypto application revenue. Including synthetic dollar protocol Ethena raises the top three’s combined share to nearly 80%, highlighting what he described as record-high revenue concentration across the sector.

    Source: Lorenzo Valente

    Valente added that he expects the trend to accelerate in the coming months, leading to more mergers and acquisitions, Chapter 11 bankruptcies, project shutdowns and acqui-hires. Despite the shakeout, he described the consolidation as “extremely bullish” for the crypto industry.

    Related: ARK pushes back against a16z’s ‘TradFi wants blockchain, not DeFi’ claim

    Exchange closures add to consolidation narrative

    The comments come as several crypto exchanges have announced plans to wind down operations in recent days, underscoring mounting pressures across parts of the industry.

    Last week, BitMEX announced it would shut down its exchange in September after a strategic review by owner HDR Global Trading. The exchange had recently accelerated the delisting of trading pairs and derivative contracts, citing insufficient trading interest.

    Days later, BitMart announced it would end trading services on Aug. 26 before winding down operations entirely in January 2027. The exchange said the decision followed a review of its operating conditions, market environment and future strategic direction.

    Consolidation has also come through acquisitions. Earlier this month, Bybit launched a locally operated exchange in Indonesia after acquiring a majority stake in local digital asset firm NOBI, expanding its presence in one of Asia’s largest crypto markets.

    Source: BitMEX

    Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures

  • Binance.US plans CFTC application in prediction market expansion

    Binance.US plans CFTC application in prediction market expansion

    Binance.US plans to apply for a designated contract market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission next month as the exchange prepares to expand into prediction markets.

    Chief executive Stephen Gregory disclosed the plan Wednesday during the Rare Evo conference in Las Vegas, according to Bloomberg, citing a Binance.US spokesperson.

    Receiving designated contract market status would allow Binance.US to operate a derivatives exchange under CFTC oversight and potentially list event contracts for retail customers.

    A designated contract market is a federally regulated exchange that can offer futures, options, and other derivative contracts. Applicants must satisfy CFTC requirements covering market surveillance, customer protection, financial resources, and safeguards against manipulation.

    Binance.US has not yet appeared on the CFTC’s public list of pending designated contract market applications, consistent with Gregory’s statement that the filing is planned for next month. Approval is not guaranteed and the company has not disclosed a timeline for launching any products.

    The planned application advances a broader comeback strategy centered on lower trading fees and an expansion beyond spot crypto trading.

    Gregory previously said the exchange was exploring retail derivatives and event based products as it attempts to regain market share lost during several years of regulatory uncertainty.

    At its peak in 2022, Binance.US controlled roughly 20% of the US crypto exchange market, according to CoinDesk Indices data. Its share has since fallen to nearly zero.

    Binance.US operates separately from the larger global Binance exchange, although the businesses share branding and beneficial ownership.

    The US company lost substantial trading activity following regulatory actions involving the broader Binance organization. The global exchange reached a $4.3 billion settlement with US authorities in 2023 over violations related to sanctions and money transmission rules.

    The prediction market sector has expanded rapidly as financial and crypto companies compete to offer event contracts tied to sports, elections, economic data, and other outcomes.

    However, the industry remains subject to legal and regulatory disputes. State authorities, consumer groups, and traditional gaming operators have challenged whether certain event contracts should be treated as federally regulated derivatives or gambling products governed by state law.

    The CFTC has also reminded designated markets that event contracts must comply with existing product submission, market integrity, and anti manipulation requirements.

  • Fed holds rates steady, extending pause as markets await Kevin Warsh’s policy roadmap

    Fed holds rates steady, extending pause as markets await Kevin Warsh’s policy roadmap

    The Federal Reserve left its benchmark fed funds rate range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday, extending its pause for a sixth consecutive meeting as policymakers continue to grapple with stubborn inflation.

    The decision came after one of the most uncertain pre-meeting setups in years. Futures markets had assigned roughly a 65% probability to a hold and 35% odds of a quarter-point increase, according to CME FedWatch data.

    It was an unusual setup, as for years, the Fed had typically tried to communicate to markets the direction it was going to take on policy

    Attention now turns to Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting press conference. Warsh has been openly critical of the Fed’s traditional use of forward guidance and the quarterly “dot plot,” and investors will be watching closely for signs that the central bank’s communication strategy is changing under his leadership.

  • Ethereum Price Stalls as Fed Rate Decision Looms

    Ethereum Price Stalls as Fed Rate Decision Looms

    In brief

    • Ethereum fell 1.53% to $1,890 on Wednesday, pulling back from a session high of $1,926 as traders froze ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
    • Spot ETH ETFs attracted $14.53 million in inflows today, capping three straight weeks of net positive flows totaling $71.17 million in the seven days ending July 28.
    • The “death cross” remains in place, but charts point to growing trend strength.

    The whole crypto market is in a holding pattern, eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s next move.

    Bitcoin is hovering near $64,000 while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 29—deep in “fear” territory. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which is expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%, but could rattle risk assets with a hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Equity markets are similarly cautious.

    Ethereum, the second largest digital asset by market cap, opened Wednesday at $1,919.80, tagged a session high of $1,926.10, and has since slipped to $1,890.60—down 1.53% on the day. The move is a modest setback after a sharp recovery from 2026 lows reached earlier this month.

    That bounce has been quietly supported by institutional flows: According to SosoValue, ETH has registered three consecutive weeks of net inflows, the strongest run since April.

    The death cross—where the 50-day EMA (exponential moving average of the last 50 days) trades below the 200-day—is still firmly in place, keeping the structural bias bearish. EMAs show where average price has been over different time periods; when the shorter-term average crosses below the longer one, it’s a classic signal that the medium-term trend remains down. Until that flips, the burden of proof is on bulls.

    What has changed is the Average Directional Index, or ADX, which now reads 23.2 with buying pressure (DI+) outpacing selling pressure (DI–). ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction; readings above 20 suggest something real may be forming. Right now, bulls are technically “winning” the internal tug-of-war—just not convincingly enough to confirm a real trend yet.

    The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, sits at 54.7—neutral territory showing a small buying interest. RSI measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold on a scale of 0 to 100; readings between 40 and 60 give no strong directional signal. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator has just released after a period of compression, with momentum reading 0.71 positive—a slight lean toward the upside, but one that needs a catalyst to follow through.

    The Fibonacci retracement for ETH’s recent leg—measured from the $1,846 low to the $1,980 top—puts the golden zone (the highest probability of market cooldown) between $1,897 and $1,913. Price is sitting just below it, making this the critical near-term pivot: resistance on the way up, and the threshold bulls need to reclaim to keep the recovery thesis credible.

    On Myriad, the prediction market operated by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, traders remain broadly biased toward a dump to $1,500 before any rally to $3,000.

    Sentiment peaked at 83% in favor of the dump in mid-June when ETH was near $1,682, according to Decrypt. The recovery since then has trimmed those odds—but with ETH sitting 58% below $3,000 and just 21% above $1,500, the math still leans bearish.

    Why the bullish case could work

    A Fed hold paired with a softer-than-expected tone from Warsh could be the macro unlock. ETF inflows are real and sustained. If ETH closes above $1,913 today or in the next session, it reclaims the golden zone and puts $1,944 in play—the 23.6% Fibonacci extension.

    Beyond that, $1,980 marks the top of the current Fib leg and the next serious ceiling.

    Why the bearish case is more likely

    A hawkish Fed or any rate-hike signal sends ETH straight back to test the $1,874–$1,846 support band. The death cross isn’t flipping soon—the 200-day EMA is sitting near $2,174, still well above current price. ADX at 23.2 hasn’t yet crossed the 25 threshold needed to confirm a genuine trend, but with the Fed as the wild card, direction is a coin flip.

    Most of the chart’s story still points south until ETH clears $1,980 convincingly.

    Disclaimer

    The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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  • As crypto perpetual futures boom, Ethereum’s role is shifting

    As crypto perpetual futures boom, Ethereum’s role is shifting

    For years, Ethereum has been synonymous with decentralized finance. It pioneered onchain financial tools like lending protocols and tokenized assets, which today underpin much of the crypto economy. But one of crypto’s fastest-growing sectors, perpetual futures, or “perps”, has largely flourished elsewhere.

    Ask traders where onchain perpetuals live today, and the answer is more likely to be Hyperliquid or Solana than Ethereum. That is because perpetuals demand something Ethereum’s base layer was never designed to optimize for: extremely fast, low-cost, high-frequency trading.

    “Perps require frequent transactions, fast execution, and deep liquidity,” said AJ Warner, chief strategy officer at Offchain Labs, the main developer firm behind the layer-2 Arbitrum. “That makes them a natural use case for the Arbitrum platform.”

    The distinction has become increasingly important as decentralized perpetual exchanges mature from crypto-native products into markets attracting institutional attention.

    Why Ethereum L1 fell behind

    Perpetuals are one of the most demanding applications in crypto. Their exchanges require thousands of rapid-fire updates, liquidations, funding payments, and order executions, all without interruption.

    “Perps onchain are really hard,” said Brian Smith of the Jito Foundation. “It’s not just the average performance that matters, it’s the 99.99% success rate. If your perps platform goes down, that’s existential risk.”

    Ethereum’s security-first architecture made it an ideal settlement layer, but historically, its block times and gas costs made it an expensive place to run latency-sensitive trading applications.

    When decentralized perps exchange GMX launched on Arbitrum in 2021,, it helped establish a template that many others would follow. “Ethereum mainnet fees were prohibitively expensive, which naturally attracted perps builders to Arbitrum,” Warner said. Offchain Labs then leaned into that momentum, actively prioritizing perpetuals as a strategic category.

    “By prioritizing the vertical, we were able to attract a concentration of builders and capital to the ecosystem.” Today, much of Ethereum’s perpetual trading activity lives not on the Ethereum mainnet, but on layer-2 networks like Arbitrum and, increasingly, Base.

    Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem has become something of a compromise: preserving Ethereum’s security while dramatically improving trading performance. Networks like Arbitrum and Base have reduced block times while also becoming an increasingly attractive trading destination because of their growing user base and liquidity.

    Chris Boulous of Dromos Labs, the main developer firm behind Aerodrome, a decentralized exchange that lives on the Base network, argued that technical performance is only part of the story.

    “Trading is effectively a network-effects business,” he said. “You have to build where the liquidity and users currently exist.” That dynamic has become self-reinforcing: protocols launch where traders already are, liquidity providers follow the traders, and then new applications build around existing liquidity. It’s one reason Boulous sees Aerodrome as complementary to perpetual exchanges rather than competitive with them.

    “You can kind of think of perps as a customer of spot exchanges,” Boulous said. Spot exchanges provide pricing, liquidity and hedging opportunities that perpetual markets depend on. “Spot and perps are two sides of the same liquidity coin.”

    Why Solana and Hyperliquid surged

    Still, Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem isn’t the only place where developers can build high-performance trading infrastructure. Hyperliquid built an application-specific chain optimized almost entirely for perpetual trading. Solana, meanwhile, combined low fees with a large base of retail traders already actively trading memecoins and other speculative assets.

    According to Smith of Jito, that user base matters as much as the technology. “The most important ingredient for any exchange platform, but especially perps, is retail organic flow,” he said. “Solana is the king of retail trading activity.”

    Smith also argues Ethereum faces an additional challenge: fragmentation. “You need to be able to trade everything in a single spot,” he said. “What Ethereum is suffering from is a level of fragmentation.”

    Ethereum’s scaling strategy largely relied on layer-2 networks like Arbitrum and Base to handle high-volume activity. While that approach dramatically reduced costs and improved performance, it also dispersed users and liquidity across multiple ecosystems. Traders often need to bridge assets between networks, making the experience less seamless than on single-chain ecosystems such as Solana. Earlier this year, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin acknowledged that the original layer-2 roadmap vision “no longer makes sense” as layer 2s have decentralized more slowly than expected and Ethereum’s base layer has itself become more scalable.

    Not everyone sees that fragmentation as a fatal flaw, however. Some Ethereum proponents argue the focus on execution misses the network’s longer-term role in the onchain financial stack. Matthieu Saint Olive, a staff product manager at MetaMask, argues the framing itself misses what’s happening. “I’d push back gently on the premise that it’s a competition in the first place,” he told CoinDesk.

    Purpose-built trading chains may ultimately win on execution speed, but they still require somewhere to source collateral, liquidity, stablecoins, and settlement. “Ethereum’s role is the settlement and collateral base where the deepest liquidity, the widest range of assets, the stablecoins, and the most mature DeFi primitives live.”

    Several leading perpetual trading platforms either operate directly on Ethereum layer 2s or remain closely connected to Ethereum’s ecosystem for collateral, settlement, and developer tooling. “L2s are how Ethereum scales into use cases like active trading without giving up the thing that makes the base layer valuable,” Saint Olive said.

    The institutional question

    As institutions begin paying closer attention to onchain derivatives, the conversation is shifting from whether decentralized perpetuals can work to whether they can compete with traditional infrastructure. “It comes down to execution, custody, and predictability, not ideology,” Saint Olive said.

    Institutions, Warner of Offchain Labs argued, still need deeper liquidity, more efficient capital usage, and better execution before deploying significant trading volume onchain. “Capital is still fragmented across venues,” Warner said. “Institutions will want better access to credit, cross-margining, and the ability to trade across venues without leaving large amounts of capital idle.”

    For Boulous, the next milestone is straightforward: “You have to be able to do things onchain that you can’t do, or can’t do as cheaply, in traditional markets.”

    While much of today’s decentralized perpetual volume still revolves around crypto assets, market participants increasingly see the infrastructure supporting perps as the foundation for broader capital markets. Saint Olive believes perpetuals are already demonstrating what programmable markets can become.

    “Perps are the leading indicator, the first place you can watch traditional financial activity genuinely migrate onchain,” Saint Olive said.

    That may also explain why Ethereum’s role in the market is evolving rather than diminishing.

    Solana and purpose-built chains like Hyperliquid have established themselves as the venues where traders execute high-speed transactions. Ethereum, meanwhile, is increasingly positioning itself as the settlement and collateral layer that underpins those markets through its layer-2 ecosystem and broader DeFi infrastructure.

    Whether that division of labor persists will depend on how quickly Ethereum can solve some of the challenges its critics point to: fragmented liquidity across layer 2s, better interoperability between networks, and a smoother user experience. If it can, proponents argue Ethereum doesn’t necessarily need to become the fastest place to trade perpetuals. It simply needs to remain the deepest and most trusted place to settle them.

    Read more: Perpetual futures could become crypto’s next ETF moment