“A trader seeking a 5x or 10x payoff can now choose among bitcoin, Nvidia, gold, an equity perpetual, a 0DTE option, or a sports event contract rather than concentrating risk-taking in crypto,” NYDIG’s Cipolaro wrote.
The scale of growth in prediction markets has attracted another slice of speculative activity that once flowed into crypto trading.
The 2026 World Cup was the moment the numbers became impossible to ignore, with Kalshi processing $31 billion in notional volume in June alone, a jump of more than 70% from the prior month, while Polymarket’s international exchange set a new monthly record of $10.8 billion.
Wall Street noticed too, with DRW building a dedicated prediction market desk and applying cross-platform arbitrage techniques borrowed from derivatives trading. However, van Rossum warned that these markets are “so different from trading crypto tokens that not all exchanges and professional traders can easily adapt.”
‘Hibernation’
The response for much of the industry has settled into something resembling strategic patience. The flamboyant spending of the last bull cycle, including stadium naming rights, F1 teams and aggressive expansion into new markets, has given way to cost discipline and reduced headcount.
BitMEX, once the world’s largest crypto derivatives exchange, shut its doors last month as closures mount across the board. Meanwhile, firms that are still operating are doing so with smaller teams and narrower ambitions.
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