Bernstein cut IREN’s price target from $125 to $100 amid Bitcoin mining scale-down and share dilution, while keeping an Outperform rating.
IREN is transitioning from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud, anchored by a major Microsoft GPU contract worth $1.94 billion in annualized revenue.
By 2030, Bernstein forecasts $6 billion in cloud revenue and ~82% EBITDA margins as IREN scales to 275,000 GPUs.
Bernstein analysts trimmed their price target on IREN from $125 to $100 per share Monday while reaffirming the stock as their top pick among AI-focused Bitcoin miners, citing the company’s rapid transformation into a superscale AI cloud provider—and an expectation that it will fully wind down crypto mining operations in the coming years.
The investment firm said the target reduction reflects two factors unrelated to IREN’s business prospects: a scaling back of Bitcoin mining and an increase in shares outstanding from recent equity issuances—not any deterioration in the company’s AI ambitions.
At the heart of the bull case is a major deal with Microsoft. IREN has contracted 77,000 of its 150,000 GPUs to the software giant under a five-year deal anchored by roughly $1.94 billion in annualized revenue. The remaining GPU capacity is being marketed to on-demand cloud customers, with $400 million in contracts already signed as of February.
To finance the buildout, IREN struck a $5.8 billion purchase agreement with Dell for Nvidia GB300 processors and secured $3.6 billion in GPU-backed financing at an interest rate below 6%. Combined with Microsoft prepayments, the arrangement covers roughly 95 percent of the capital needed for the Microsoft contract, analysts said.
Bernstein projects that IREN’s AI cloud revenues will reach $2.6 billion in 2027 and climb to $6 billion by 2030, when the company expects to operate a fleet of 275,000 GPUs—up from 150,000 today. Adjusted EBITDA margins are forecast to stabilize near 82 percent at scale, implying nearly $5 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by the end of the decade.
The company’s 4.5 gigawatts of power holdings—spanning sites in Texas, British Columbia and Oklahoma—underpin the longer-term growth story. Bernstein valued IREN’s 3.6 gigawatts of undeveloped capacity in Sweetwater and Oklahoma at $3 million per megawatt, contributing roughly $10.8 billion to the firm’s sum-of-the-parts valuation.
Bitcoin mining, once the core of IREN’s business, is assigned zero value in the updated model. Analysts expect the company to continue replacing mining hardware with GPU racks as it repurposes existing infrastructure for cloud workloads. Bernstein projects that the firm’s mining revenue will plunge in the coming years before reaching zero in fiscal year 2030.
Many other prominent Bitcoin mining firms have strongly embraced theAI opportunity in recent months, with some even abandoning crypto mining altogether amid the AI boom.
IREN shares recently traded at $43.78, down more than 9% on the day amid a broader AI-related stock rout tied to a report of OpenAI underperformance. Over the last month, IREN shares have jumped by nearly 25%. At the current price, Bernstein’s price target represents approximately 128% upside for investors.
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Last week, Nia Long got the tap on the shoulder she’s been waiting for forever. It was a summons from Katherine Jackson, the matriarch of the Jackson family, whom she portrays in the new biopic, “Michael.”
Long steeled herself as she walked into a green room backstage at the Dolby Theatre and, when they came face to face, she froze for a moment. Then, she kneeled down, held the 95-year-old woman’s hand and said, “Thank you so much for all your sacrifices, for your love, for your patience, for your commitment to family.”
“Mother Jackson,” as Long calls her, simply gazed back at her, so she continued: “I said, ‘Do you realize none of this would be possible without you? You are the beginning of the Jackson legacy.’ And she teared up. It was a beautiful moment, and it was confirmation for me that she’s very pleased with the film. It was just perfect.”
Indeed, Katherine Jackson was pleased with “Michael” — and audiences certainly seemed to be too, as the biopic earned a record-setting $97 million domestically and $217 million globally in its opening weekend, the best start of all time for a music biopic. And while Long had never met the Jackson matriarch before, she’d once met Michael in the early 90s.
Long and a few friends were at a Stevie Wonder concert when John Singleton, who’d directed her in “Boyz n the Hood,” stopped her and said: “I want you to meet my friend Michael.”
“I turned to my right, and it’s Michael Jackson,” she recalls. “I literally turned into a giggly schoolgirl. He just looked at me and said, ‘Hi, Nia Long, I really enjoy your work.’”
Long gets chills just thinking about that moment. “The thing that still stands out is his curiosity and his ability to connect on a very human level,” she says. “I knew that I was standing in front of Michael Jackson, this iconic treasure, [but] I felt in that moment that he was a new friend. He was meeting me exactly where I was at that time in my career, and that speaks to his humility and grace. And that comes from his mother.”
At the time, Long was still a newbie in Hollywood; she’d starred in Singleton’s Oscar-nominated film, but she had yet to establish herself as one of the decade’s hottest stars with movies like “Friday,” “Love Jones,” “Soul Food” and “The Best Man” franchise, plus a major arc on “The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air.” Regardless, Jackson was already impressed — but he couldn’t have known then that one day that young woman would add playing his mother to her resume.
“There’s a spiritual aspect to this process that has to be acknowledged,” Long says, looking back on the full-circle nature of that interaction. “I truly believe Michael has a hand in everything that’s related to this film.”
Here, Long tells Variety how she tapped into Katherine Jackson’s essence without ever meeting her, how her performance differs from previous depictions, what got cut from her character arc and her hopes for a potential “Michael” sequel.
Katherine Jackson birthed this line of tremendous artists and performers and held them together as a family. When you were asked to portray her, was it an immediate yes, or did you have any trepidation?
It was an immediate “Yes,” but then I paused. I had to get very clear with myself on my approach to curating the character. Because you’re not mimicking someone. It was very important to me to embody her spirit and soul, because that’s where the truth lies. I immediately tapped into grace, love, patience, and protection. Katherine Jackson is a woman of service, so there’s a humility and grace that she carries. I knew that if I started there, I would be able to fly through the scenes anchored in those emotions and those feelings and that truth.
Since you didn’t meet her beforehand and she is not hugely public and giving tons of interviews, how did you go about finding the essence of who Katherine is?
I watched as many videos online as I could. I spoke to Graham King and Antoine Fuqua for hours about her role in the film and how to approach the character. I tapped into my own mother wit — my understanding of being a mother and having my own personal experiences that really informed me on what it means to be graceful. Sometimes, grace is being still and being quiet and understanding that the most powerful thing we can do is trust the divine feminine energy, because it is capable of creating greatness. And that is what Katherine Jackson has done. She’s just a beautiful, exceptional soul, and meeting her in person qualified everything I thought I knew. I had to put Nia away for two years and tune into that energy of being the Queen Mother. That is who she is.
This film is a celebration for Michael, but it’s also an acknowledgement of Katherine Jackson’s greatness. She is the beginning of everything. And I want to celebrate her. I want everyone to stop and think about how much she had to carry to get here.
What was your experience of the 1992 miniseries “The Jacksons: An American Dream”?
I love Angela Bassett. The beautiful thing about being an artist is that we each have our own interpretation of the character, and there’s room for everyone’s performance. I thought it was great, but this is a different film. This film is through Michael Jackson’s eyes, so we have an intimate experience with him growing up. It’s a bit of a coming-of-age story, and you really see the loneliness that he experienced as he walked into stardom.
That series presented a different part of Katherine and Joe’s relationship; it was a lot more about their relationship dynamics — like the scene where Angela’s Katherine cries out, “I don’t want you no more.” In “Michael,” your scenes with Colman tend to be a bit more about their roles as parents and those pressures. How did you two go about capturing that dynamic?
Colman and I had lots of conversations in the hair and makeup trailer about the importance of showing joy in the midst of incredibly challenging times. We’re talking about the 1960s and the Civil Rights Movement, and we wanted to show the power of the Black family dynamic. Those very early scenes when we’re at the dinner table: we’re laughing, we’re talking, we’re sharing community and we’re showing the connection between family. Because when you think about family, it is the place where everyone is meant to feel safe and together and solid. And through their commitment, they were able to create greatness.
Was the relationship perfect? No. But the commitment is larger and more important and more solid than the conflict. We were adamant about finding those moments where, even if Katherine wasn’t in total agreement with what Joe was proposing, she still supported him, until she said, “This is enough.” That’s very real. Everyone has to play their role, the masculine and feminine. They each had a very specific role in the curation of the family — and there comes a point where there will be conflict and things may even fall apart — but I do believe that it is because of their commitment that the Jackson family is what it is today.
Nia Long with the cast and filmmakers of “Michael” at the Los Angeles premiere.
Variety via Getty Images
Yes, while your Katherine might not say, “I don’t want you no more,” she’s not always demure and quiet. How did you prepare for that scene where Katherine stands up and tells Joe that’s enough?
I made the choice very early on that I would take the quieter, more subtle approach to all of my scenes, because, to me, that represented the strength of Katherine Jackson. When it was time to do that scene, we did it a couple of different ways but landed on the quieter version. It really worked beautifully, because I don’t think the audience saw it coming.
The first time I saw the film in front of an audience, and I tell Joe, “Enough. You’re not going to beat anyone anymore. You’re not going to whoop anyone,” the audience started to applaud. I was kind of shocked. I thought, “Oh, wow! I didn’t think it was going to be that impactful.” It’s in that moment that the film really changes, and you start to see that Joe is losing his control. The editors did an amazing job of putting the scene together. Antoine made a great call in allowing us to explore the scene with several different tones, but this tone was in pocket, and I’m happy that we had the space and the time to play around with it a little bit.
Speaking of Angela Bassett, she and her husband, Courtney B. Vance, hosted a screening of the film.
I loved that. Courtney called me in the middle of doing “The Today Show,” so I need to call him back, because that’s my guy. I love him and Angela.
What does it mean to have their support and so much love from other Black entertainers?
[The L.A. premiere] felt like a ‘90s movie premiere. I’ve missed those times so much where the whole community would come out to support filmmaking. Usher was there; Magic and Cookie Johnson were there. Everybody was there. It was amazing. It was just great to see everyone so excited to see this film and to celebrate a cultural icon. Michael Jackson has done it all musically and visually. He was making short films with his music videos before they were really acknowledged as short films. He was a storyteller, and he incorporated history and cultural conflict and love and the expression of independence. He was actually sharing his personal story through his music. I remember watching his videos as a young girl and being inspired to be an actor. It felt like something I had never seen. It takes years to accomplish what Michael Jackson did, and I can only imagine where he would be right now if he were still with us. He’s missed terribly.
The storyline for this film changed because of legal issues with the original script. Was there anything in Katherine’s storyline that you were disappointed to lose?
In the original version of the film, there were scenes that didn’t quite work with this cut, that were deleted but may be revisited; I’m not really sure. That’s part of filmmaking. The performances have to work with the storytelling, and sometimes things change, and it can be heartbreaking, but I’m very happy with the film as it stands today.
Can you tell me generally what parts of her story those scenes covered?
There were scenes with Jaafar and me; they were cut mostly because of the time period that this film covers. They were scenes at Neverland [Ranch]. So maybe they’ll come back if we do, in fact, do a sequel.
Nia Long (right) as Katherine Jackson with Jaafar Jackson as Michael Jackson in “Michael.”
What do those conversations about a sequel look like for you as an actor? I imagine you have to draw up a new contract?
I’ll just say yes. I didn’t negotiate two movies; I negotiated for one film. I just want everyone to see this film and ask us to continue the storytelling.
The movie originally included scenes from Michael’s later life, including his legal issues. Katherine Jackson was always seen as the person there supporting him through those trials. What was your experience of that?
Katherine Jackson has been a constant safe space for Michael from day one and throughout his days, and I believe, until his last day. So, we weren’t avoiding anything in the storytelling. That was never the objective. But there were things beyond our creative control that shifted the storytelling. Katherine’s connection to Michael was unwavering throughout his entire life. We were very deliberate about that unwavering mother love.
Has there been any discussion about what the sequel would cover?
Honestly, I have no idea. I don’t even know if I’m in the second one. There’s no second script. But I’ll tell you one thing: Graham King is a man with a plan. I trust him implicitly. I know how much he cares about this project, about Michael, and about the family. So, this is one of those moments right where I could say, “What are we doing?” No, I’m going to just relax. Whatever I’m called to do is what I’m supposed to do. And you know what that gives me? That gives me freedom. No anxiety. No pressure. Whatever is meant to be will be. Whatever part of the story I am meant to tell, I will be there to do it.
I’m excited, too. Because when you start to think about sequels, the first thing that I think is “How does Katherine change through this journey?” Because she starts as a very young woman. By this point, she’s close to being a middle-aged woman. So, what does that look like for her? What does her relationship with her husband look like? What is the family dynamic in this next chapter? So those are all exciting things I’m looking forward to exploring as we continue the process.
Eugene Ashe, who directed your new movie “Don’t Ever Wonder,” compared you and Larenz Tate to Diana Ross and Billy Dee Williams. He said this is your “Mahogany” with “Love Jones” being your “Lady Sings the Blues.” What is it like to deliver another entry into the Black love canon together?
“Don’t Ever Wonder” is about a couple experiencing life after sending their baby off to college. How do you reconnect? How do you deal with being an empty nester? It’s funny, it’s heartwarming, it’s emotional, it’s a very real take on what it’s like to reconnect with your partner after the kids are gone and you don’t have a buffer in the relationship. I love Lorenz Tate more than anything. He is not only a fantastic actor, but he’s a beautiful human being. We have such a special connection and a special calling as a duo. It’s very different from “Love Jones,” and I know that people will probably try to compare it, but Larenz and I really wanted to make sure that the characters were very different from Nina and Darius, and I think we accomplished that.
What does it mean to hear him compare you to Diana Ross? On top of being asked to embody Katherine Jackson?
I’m a worker, that’s what I know. I love to work. I love to create. I’m incredibly blessed. I love that my career has been graceful and the cadence has been manageable — meaning I can still be a mother the way that I need to be a mother. I still have a normal life. I can go to the farmers’ market on the weekend and have a connection to community without feeling like I need an entourage. And that is by design. I take the roles that feel good to me, that feel authentic to me, that encourage me to share what I know as a woman through the different characters that I play. I’m living in great gratitude right now, because I don’t take any of this for granted. I’m also very proud of myself for sticking to what I know is right for me, for keeping my standards high, staying open to change and learning. Part of having a long career is keeping your mind open to change and growth, to be inspired by other artists, other women. It’s part of my purpose.
If you look at the meaning of my name, I didn’t have a choice. [“Nia” is Swahili for “purpose.”] I never cared about stardom; I just wanted to be a voice of inspiration. Anyone who knows me knows that I am a truth teller, and I don’t back away from the truth. Sometimes it’s easier to avoid the truth than to speak the truth, but I honestly don’t know how to do it any other way. And I wouldn’t do it any other way, because that’s who I am: a truth seeker and a truth teller.
Nia Long (second) poses with her son Massai Zhivago Dorsey II, her mother Talita Long and her son Kez Sunday Udoka at the “Michael” premiere held in Los Angeles.
For a brief moment Monday night, Hollywood folks put aside any concerns they have about the industry’s troubles and found reason to celebrate at the Walt Disney Co.’s “Toast to Television.” The event, held at Soho House Hollywood, was exactly that: A moment for some of the medium’s biggest stars, creators, writers, executives, producers and directors to rub elbows and celebrate the fact that good storytelling is alive and well.
Stars and producers from ABC, Disney+, Hulu, 20th TV and other Disney-related entities repped shows including “9-1-1,” “Abbott Elementary,” “Alien: Earth,” “American Dad,” “The Bear,” “Chad Powers,” “Dancing With the Stars,” “Deli Boys,” “Disneyland Handcrafted,” “Family Guy,” “Grey’s Anatomy,” “High Potential,” “Ironheart,” “Lilith Fair: Building a Mystery,” “Love Story,” “Malcolm in the Middle: Life’s Still Unfair,” “Mike & Nick & Nick & Alice,” “Murdaugh: Death in the Family,” “Paradise,” “Reasonable Doubt,” “RJ Decker,” “Scrubs,” “Shifting Gears,” “The Simpsons,” “Swiped,” “The Testaments,” “Twisted Tale of Amanda Knox,” “Welcome to Wrexham,” “Wonder Man” and more.
In her opening remarks, newly named Walt Disney Co. president and chief creative officer Dana Walden noted that “Family Guy” creator Seth MacFarlane had a little fun teasing the “Toast to TV” event title. But, “we are calling it that, and I want to say thank you and welcome to everyone that’s here. I’m looking at these amazing faces and people who have done so much extraordinary work with us. I thought a lot about what I wanted to say tonight, and I decided I wanted to do two things.
“First, I wanted to make it really quick, because I want you all to spend time talking to each other. Second, I wanted to say it’s kind of remarkable the year that you have all had. You have told stories that break through an incredible amount of clutter. You’re just such dreamy partners. All of us at Disney, we spend a lot of time thinking about who we want to partner with. And I have to say, when I look in this crowd, this is our dream.
“And so the second thing I want to say is I see people who have been to parties like this so many times. But I also want to say ‘welcome’ to the people who are joining us for the first time. We have met extraordinary new partners, and the work has just been so meaningful and beautiful, and we’re so proud of it. So Seth, it’s a toast to TV. And it’s a toast to people like you, our longtime partners, and a huge welcome to all of our new partners. On behalf of everyone at Disney, on behalf of [new CEO] Josh [D’Amaro] and [Disney Entertainment, Studios, chairman] Alan Bergman and [FX boss] John Landgraf and Deborah OConnell, our new head of Disney Entertainment Television. You are the best of the best. And cheers to you.”
Here are some photos from the event:
William Stanford Davis, Quinta Brunson, Tyler James Williams and Chris Perfetti, “Abbott Elementary.” (Photo by Monica Schipper/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Shailene Woodley and Thomas Doherty, “Paradise.” (Photo by Monica Schipper/Getty Images)
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Bill Lawrence (“Scrubs”) and Ryan Reynolds (“Welcome to Wrexham”). (Photo by Monica Schipper/Getty Images)
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Lucy Halliday and Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments.” (Photo by Monica Schipper/Getty Images)
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Saagar Shaikh, Poorna Jagannathan and Asif Ali, “Deli Boys.” (Photo by Monica Schipper/Getty Images)
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Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise.” (Photo by Monica Schipper/Getty Images)
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Paul Anthony Kelly and Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story.” (Photo by Monica Schipper/Getty Images)
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Dana Walden, Shailene Woodley, Dan Fogelman, “Paradise.” (Disney/Frank Micelotta)
Disney
Deena Katz, Derek Hough, Conrad Green, Alfonso Ribeiro, “Dancing With the Stars.” (Disney/Jonny Marlow)
Disney
Chris Perfetti, Tyler James Williams (“Abbott Elementary); Zach Braff, Sarah Chalke, Donald Faison (“Scrubs”). (Disney/Jonny Marlow)
Disney
Rob Mac (“Welcome to Wrexham”), Dana Walden, Sydney Chandler (“Alien: Earth”), Kaitlin Olson (“High Potential”). (Disney/Frank Micelotta)
Share on PinterestCoffee, even without caffeine, can reduce stress, improve learning, and boost mood by influencing your gut-brain axis. Oleg Breslavtsev/Getty Images
New research suggests both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee can improve mood and reduce stress by influencing the gut–brain axis.
Coffee may alter the gut microbiome, increasing bacteria linked to digestion, immunity, and emotional regulation.
Decaf coffee was associated with improved learning and memory, while caffeinated coffee enhanced attention and reduced anxiety and inflammation.
Experts say coffee’s polyphenols and other compounds may support mental well-being by lowering inflammation and strengthening communication between the gut and brain.
Your morning cup of coffee may be more than just an energizing ritual.
New research from APC Microbiome Ireland suggests that both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee can improve mood and reduce stress by acting on the gut–brain axis.
Researchers analyzed 62 adults, including 31 regular coffee drinkers and 31 non-drinkers, using psychological assessments, diet tracking, and stool and urine samples to examine changes in the gut microbiome and mood.
Coffee drinkers, defined as those consuming 3 to 5 cups daily, first abstained for two weeks, which led to notable shifts in gut metabolite profiles.
When coffee was reintroduced in a blinded trial, half consumed caffeinated and half decaffeinated. Both groups reported reduced stress, depression, and impulsivity, suggesting benefits beyond caffeine.
Researchers also observed increases in specific gut bacteria linked to digestion and immune function.
Decaffeinated coffee was associated with improved learning and memory, while caffeinated coffee was linked to reduced anxiety, better attention, and lower inflammation, highlighting distinct but complementary effects.
Coco Pierrel, is a certified integrative nutritionist and founder of Eat Shed Glow, who was not involved in the research.
She told Healthline that this study is the first to confirm what gut health specialists have seen in clinical practice for years: that coffee is a functional beverage.
“Coffee feeds your gut microbes through plant compounds called polyphenols and fiber-like molecules called melanoidins,” Pierrel explained.
“Your gut bacteria ferment these into short-chain fatty acids, which send signals directly to the brain through the vagus nerve.”
Pierrel recommended thinking of your gut as a second brain that is in constant communication with your first brain, and coffee is one of the loudest messages you send it every morning.
“Caffeine blocks adenosine receptors in the brain to sharpen alertness, while stimulating gastric acid and motility in the gut,” she explained.
“Coffee is one of the few daily habits that synchronizes your metabolism with your mental clarity, which is exactly what makes it such a powerful player on the gut-brain axis.”
People often associate the mental benefits of coffee with caffeine. However, this study shows that when it comes to lowering stress, boosting learning, and improving memory, decaf coffee has merit too.
“The polyphenols in coffee, whether caffeinated or decaffeinated, lower inflammation, and chronic low-grade inflammation is one of the most underrated drivers of low mood and anxiety,” Pierrel pointed out.
“Those same polyphenols get fermented by gut bacteria into short-chain fatty acids like butyrate, which strengthens the gut barrier and quiets inflammatory signaling to the brain.”
Coffee polyphenols also help regulate the HPA axis, the body’s central stress response system, which is likely why both caffeinated and decaf drinkers in this study reported feeling less stressed.
“A healthy brain is often the byproduct of a healthy gut,” Pierrel said.
Still, the study noted some differences between caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee.
Caffeinated coffee, in particular, was associated with reduced anxiety and improved vigilance and attention.
“Caffeine blocks adenosine, the molecule that tells your brain it is tired, which is why you feel sharper within 30 minutes of your first cup,” Pierrel explained.
“What most people miss is that habitual coffee drinkers develop a blunted cortisol response over time, meaning daily coffee may actually train your nervous system to handle pressure with less reactivity,” she noted.
The study also found caffeine specifically reduced inflammation.
“When you lower the noise of inflammation in the brain, you naturally raise the signal of focus and vigilance. That is why moderate daily coffee tends to leave habitual drinkers composed rather than just jittery,” Pierrel pointed out.
Of course, you can have too much of a good thing, and how you take your coffee matters, too.
“Two to three cups a day is the sweet spot for gut and brain benefits, while more can disrupt sleep and undo the very benefits you are drinking it for,” Pierrel warned.
“Sensitivity varies widely based on genetics and metabolism, so some people do best with one cup while others handle three comfortably. I generally recommend a caffeine curfew by 2 pm to protect sleep quality, too.”
The real problem is rarely the coffee itself; it is what most people pour into it.
Pierrel warned against routinely using flavored syrups, artificial sweeteners, and conventional creamers and milks loaded with seed oils and gut-disrupting gums or additives like carrageenan.
“These can compromise the gut lining and cancel the anti-inflammatory benefits the study just demonstrated,” she noted.
“The simplest path is black coffee, ideally organic to avoid pesticides and mold. If you take milk, go for grass-fed whole milk or an unsweetened plant milk with a short ingredient list, like Malk or Elmhurst,” Pierrel advised.
$XRP has been quietly compressing into a tight range between $1.40 and $1.46, a zone that is now drawing increased attention after a recent liquidity sweep shook out weak positions.
At the moment, with price hovering around $1.39, the market appears to be at a critical inflection point where direction could soon be decided.
Source: CoinCodex
The significance of this range lies in what has happened beneath the surface. The liquidity sweep effectively cleared out overleveraged longs, resetting positioning across the board.
Following that move, open interest is beginning to stabilize rather than continue its prior decline, suggesting that panic unwinding may be slowing. Furthermore, CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) is showing signs of fading sell pressure, indicating that aggressive market selling is losing momentum.
Source: TradingView
This combination has sparked a key question whether $XRP has already gone through its deleveraging phase, setting the stage for a potential reset? In other words, is the market now stabilizing enough to build a new directional trend rather than continuing its previous corrective structure?
Is $XRP Compression Signaling an Imminent Breakout or Another Range Reset?
Price action is now coiling tightly, and that compression is what makes the $1.40–$1.46 band so important.
Realistically, markets rarely stay in such narrow ranges for long, especially after liquidity has been cleared. As a result, $XRP’s present structure suggests equilibrium, whereby buyers and sellers are temporarily balanced while awaiting the next catalyst.
From a technical perspective, the next level of interest sits around $1.50. This zone is being closely watched as both a potential breakout trigger and a possible fakeout area. A decisive move above it, backed by rising volume and improving derivatives positioning, could confirm a bullish continuation. However, failure to hold above it could just as easily trap late longs and trigger another rotation back into the range.
There is also growing discussion around whether $XRP is entering a broader structural shift. If the current consolidation is indeed a base-building phase after deleveraging, then the market could be transitioning from forced liquidation dynamics into more organic price discovery.
In this scenario, supply overhead becomes the key battleground, with each push upward meeting layered resistance from earlier holders.
Ultimately, $XRP sits in a compressed state, low volatility, stabilizing derivatives data, and fading sell pressure all pointing toward an impending move. The only question is whether the next expansion breaks toward $1.50 with conviction, or fades into another range-bound reset.
Ethereum’s long stretch of sideways movement may be closer to resolution than most market participants expect. A higher time frame analysis shared by a TradingView analyst suggests the current structure is the final stage before a larger expansion that sees the Ethereum price rallying by over 100% in 2026.
This prediction rests on decades of price history that, taken together, present a compelling case. Ethereum has done this before, the structure is intact, and a 100% move from the current price level is possible.
A Six-Year Consolidation Hiding A Bullish Structure
Technical analysis of higher timeframe charts, particularly the monthly candlestick timeframe, shows that Ethereum has spent much of the past six years locked in a wide consolidation range, with repeated failures between $4,500 and $4,900. That range has acted as a ceiling across multiple attempts, consistently attracting selling pressure each time price approaches it.
To understand where Ethereum may be going, a technical analyst known as Phil on the TradingView platform noted that traders must first understand where it has been. Not in weeks or months, but across the full sweep of its market history.
Two moments stand out as structural inflection points on the monthly chart. The first came in early 2017, when the $ETH price broke above the $40 psychological resistance level after repeatedly failing to clear it throughout 2016. That was the ignition point for a rally of about 7,500%.
The second came in mid-2020, when Ethereum, having spent two years consolidating inside a falling wedge pattern, staged another breakout from the lower support trendline of that formation, launching a continuation rally of roughly 1,900%.
Ethereum Price Chart. Source: TradingView
The Breakout Path To A 100% Rally
What followed both breakouts was a prolonged period of sideways price action, and that is precisely where Ethereum finds itself again. $ETH has now been consolidating for almost six years below $4,900. The overall bullish trend, however, has not been broken.
Corrections since 2021 have led to the creation of higher lows, and this is playing out an ascending triangle pattern on the monthly timeframe. Ethereum has already pulled back roughly 25% from its recent highs, easing bearish momentum into the support region of the triangle pattern.
On the other, the $2,000 psychological level, which $ETH tested just weeks ago, provides a second significant floor. As it stands, $ETH has already bounced approximately 8% on the monthly chart since the $2,000 low was reached and held. The next step, according to the analysis, would be confirmation through higher lows and a push away from support.
If the support holds and bullish confirmation develops, the path forward becomes relatively straightforward from a technical standpoint. The first major target is a return to the $4,500 resistance range. A clean break above that level would finalize the completion of the ascending triangle. According to the analyst, this is expected to play out a 100% rally in 2026.
$ETH price falls below $2,300 | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com
Quixote Studios is shuttering its Atlanta-based production services business and winding down its soundstage business in L.A. amid an ongoing production slump, the company announced Tuesday.
The changes will mean layoffs for about 70 people in Atlanta and Los Angeles.
Hudson Pacific Propertiesbought the company in 2022 for $360 million, but has since had to write down the entire value of its Quixote unit due to heavy operating losses.
“Obviously, clearly it was not the best deal we’ve ever done, but if you compare that to everything else we’ve done, then we’re doing okay,” said Victor Coleman, the chairman and CEO of Hudson Pacific, at an investor conference in March. “We think that we have multiple alternatives with that asset that we can make it zero or at least flat at the end of the year.”
Hudson Pacific also owns Sunset Studios, a separate portfolio of L.A.-based soundstages. Those properties — which are leased to Netflix and other production companies — are unaffected by the change, and the company said that they are 96% leased.
Hudson leased additional soundstages under the Quixote brand, including facilities in Pacoima, Panorama City and West Hollywood. Occupancy on those properties was considerably lower — just 53.3% last year. Those properties will be relinquished, though the firm is hanging on to its Atwater Village location, across the L.A. River from Griffith Park. The cost reductions are expected to save the company about $21-$27 million a year.
“Quixote is taking steps to move away from leased sound stages and markets characterized by structural cost or demand disadvantages, which will allow Hudson Pacific to focus financial and operational resources on our office portfolio and higher performing segments of our studio business,” said Mark Lammas, president of Hudson Pacific, in a statement.
The company is closing down its production services business in Atlanta, after closing its services businesses in New Orleans and Albuquerque last year, as it looks to refocus that side of the business on L.A. and New York.
At the investor conference in March, Coleman argued that L.A. and New York are faring better in the downturn than second-tier hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, Albuquerque and New Orleans.
“Those markets are much more depressed,” he said. “The tax credits in both Los Angeles and New York have enhanced what we see as the production flow.”
Hudson also owns the Icon, Cue and Epic office towers on Sunset Boulevard in Hollywood, which are leased to Netflix as its L.A. headquarters through 2031.
Netflix is believed to be closing in on a deal to acquire the Radford Studios lot in Studio City, though there is no sense yet how that might impact its current studio leasing arrangements.
Variety’s annual A Night in the Writers’ Room event returns on May 7 in Los Angeles. The event will feature intimate conversations and behind-the-scenes insights into the art and craft of television storytelling for a curated audience of TV voting members.
Programming for the evening includes three genre-based panels.
The Comedy Series panel moderated by Variety’s executive TV editor Michael Schneider includes: Liz Tuccillo, Showrunner & Executive Producer – “Best Medicine” Eva Anderson, Executive Producer – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” Chris Kula, Executive Producer, Writer, and Actor – “Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” David Stassen, Executive Producer & Showrunner – “Running Point” Lucia Aniello, Co-Creator, Director, Executive Producer, & Writer – “Hacks” Oren Uziel, Creator, Co-Showrunner, Executive Producer, Writer – “Spider-Noir” Erin Foster, Creator, Executive Producer, & Writer – “Nobody Wants This”
The Limited Series Panel moderated by Variety’s senior artisans editor Jazz Tangcay includes: Annie Weisman, Creator, Showrunner, Writer, & Executive Producer – “Imperfect Women” Connor Hines, Creator, Writer, & Executive Producer – “Love Story” Mike Makowsky, Creator, Executive Producer, & Writer – “Death by Lightning”
The Drama Series Panel moderated by Variety’s senior TV features editor Emily Longeretta includes: Vince Gilligan, Executive Producer, Creator & Showrunner – “Pluribus” Sam Levinson, Creator, Showrunner, Writer, & Director – “Euphoria” Eric Kripke, Executive Producer & Showrunner – “The Boys” Geneva Robertson-Dworet, Executive Producer & Showrunner – “Fallout” Bruce Miller, Creator, Showrunner, & Executive Producer – “The Testaments” Matthew B. Roberts, Creator, Showrunner, Writer, & Executive Producer – “Outlander: Blood of My Blood”
This year’s supporting partners include Warner Bros. Television, Fox Entertainment, Hulu, Apple TV, FX Networks, Peacock, Amazon, HBO, Starz, Netflix & AMC. A Night in the Writers’ Room is part of Variety’s TV Week. Request an invite here: variety.com/tvweek.
A recent analysis by Nick Timiraos points to growing disagreements within the Fed and a critical juncture in monetary policy communication. According to Timiraos, known as the “Fed’s spokesman,” the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will conclude on Wednesday, and this will be Jerome Powell’s last meeting as chairman.
The general expectation in the markets is that the Fed will keep its policy interest rate stable in the 3.5%–3.75% range. However, the main debate focuses on whether officials will maintain their rhetoric regarding interest rate cuts. The statement in the decision text that “the next policy step is more likely to be an interest rate cut than an increase” is seen as crucial for the direction of the markets.
Rising geopolitical tensions on a global scale are also making the Fed’s job more difficult. The energy shock and supply disruptions stemming from the war with Iran are bringing stagflation risks back to the forefront, while the de facto blockage in the Strait of Hormuz and the sharp rise in jet fuel prices are negatively impacting the inflation outlook. Fed officials predict that it could take at least a year for inflation to return to the 2% target.
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The US economy has faced four major supply shocks in the last five years: the post-pandemic reopening, the Russia-Ukraine war, trade tensions, and the recent crisis in the Middle East. These developments have increased uncertainty in monetary policy and deepened disagreements within the Fed. It is reported that Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors who previously supported interest rate cuts due to concerns about the labor market, has adopted a more cautious stance this month regarding inflation risks.
According to Timiraos’ analysis, the biggest point of contention within the Fed is whether or not to change the official policy statement. Some officials advocate removing the current “tendency to cut rates” phrase. This step would equalize the probabilities of rate cuts and increases, and would be perceived by markets as a hawkish signal. However, the majority within the committee believes that such a change could unnecessarily tighten financial conditions.
Therefore, although it is almost certain that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting, the tone of the message and the forward guidance will be decisive in pricing in global markets.
Galaxy Digital posted a first-quarter net loss of $216 million, or $0.49 per share, an improvement compared to a deficit of $295 million a year ago.
The company attributed its second consecutive quarterly loss to a tepid crypto market.
Founder and CEO Mike Novogratz said the firm’s first-quarter blow was cushioned by Hyperliquid exposure.
Galaxy Digital reported its second consecutive quarterly loss on Tuesday, indicating that tepid crypto market conditions continued to pressure the financial services firm.
The company posted a first-quarter net loss of $216 million, or $0.49 per share, an improvement compared to a deficit of $295 million a year ago. For the period ended March 31, analysts had penciled in a loss per share of $0.93, according to Yahoo Finance.
Galaxy’s losses narrowed on a consecutive basis. Alongside Bitcoin’s plunge from all-time highs last year, the company reported a net loss of $482 million, or $1.08 per share. Still, Galaxy continued to cite a depreciation in digital asset prices as the main driver of losses.
The company’s stock was little changed on Tuesday, with shares changing hands around $25 following the opening bell. Although shares hit an 11-month low of $16.43 last month, the New York City-based firm’s stock price has increased 12% year-to-date.
Galaxy’s total assets declined 12% quarter-over-quarter to $9.99 billion from $11.3 billion, driven mostly by a $316 million decline in the value of its digital assets and related investments.
Novogratz acknowledged that the company’s balance sheet lost money because crypto prices are down; however, he said the firm’s first-quarter deficit was partially offset by reduced headcount and a major shift in exposure to Hyperliquid’s native token.
“We’ve been a supporter, mostly because it’s got an economic model, unlike many of the other tokens, which were association tokens,” he added. “I think Hyperliquid is a good way to look at what the future of crypto is going to look [like].”
As of March 31, Galaxy’s treasury had $134 million in “Other Token Exposure.” Meanwhile, the company’s exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana clocked in at $431 million, $61 million, and $42 million, respectively, amid $95 million in other investments.
As a decentralized exchange specializing in perpetual futures, Hyperliquid supports its native token through a buyback-and-burn mechanism that’s intended to boost the digital asset’s scarcity. Year-to-date, the token’s price has rallied 56% to $39.73, according to CoinGecko.
The company indicated that digital assets generated a first-quarter gross profit of $49 million, edging down sequentially from $51 million. In an announcement, Galaxy attributed the stability of its performance to scaling recurring fee revenue and transaction income.
Galaxy bills itself as a bridge between Wall Street and crypto markets, historically providing trading, lending, and derivative services to institutions. However, the company has recently debuted a retail-facing platform, GalaxyOne, while managing its own data center.
Profits from data centers are expected to ramp up this year, with the expected delivery of Galaxy’s first data hall to CoreWeave, an AI-native cloud provider. During the company’s earnings call, founder and CEO Mike Novogratz highlighted that diversification.
“We’re optimistic on both sides of the business,” he said. “The world is in an AI revolution, and we plan on riding that wave and paddling our canoe as fast as possible.”
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