The Oscar race is never won in June, but some would like it to be.
The first six months of 2026 have given us a moonwalking box office juggernaut that the critical class can’t stand and, more recently, an A24 ensemble dramedy that turns one tense evening into a poignant confessional. Lionsgate’s billion-dollar “Michael” and Olivia Wilde’s “The Invite” for A24 sit at opposite ends of the awards conversation. Together, they frame the question that will define the next six months until nominations are announced — and the three months after that until the winners are crowned: How much room does today’s Academy have for movies people actually went to see?
With Cannes, Sundance, SXSW and the first wave of summer releases now in the rearview, Hollywood has begun revealing the films, performances and crafts that could define the upcoming awards season. Some contenders have already exceeded expectations. Others are still awaiting their festival premieres or late-year releases before they can truly enter the conversation.
Alongside this look at the year’s first half comes the debut of Variety’s first official Oscar charts in the best picture category. Those will factor in what we’ve already seen, along with highly anticipated films expected to premiere on the fall festival circuit and a few potential surprises waiting in the wings. The most important thing to remember, however, is that it’s still early. These predictions will change — probably a lot — between now and nomination morning. The charts won’t be updated again until after Venice and Telluride, while the acting categories will make their season debut somewhere in between.
[Editor’s Note: To discuss the most significant number of movies, a film is only highlighted in one category, even though it could be in contention in multiple. Not all listed crew members are official. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, along with its various committees, ultimately determines the final credited artisans. For a film to appear on the list below, it must have had a U.S. release date between Jan. 1 and June 30.]
-
Documentary Feature: ‘Ask E. Jean’
Image Credit: Abramorama Distributor: Abramorama
Artisans: Ivy Meeropol (director, producer), Laura Bickford and Annabelle Dunne (producers)Sitting at a perfect 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and freshly relevant thanks to renewed headlines around President Donald Trump, Ivy Meeropol’s documentary, which premiered at last year’s Telluride Film Festival, tracks the cultural shift in how we treat women who accuse powerful men. It is a portrait of a woman who decided it is always the right time to speak truth to power.
-
Original Song: ‘Toy Story 5’ (‘I Knew It, I Knew You’)
Image Credit: ©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection Distributor: Pixar
Artisans: Jack Antonoff and Taylor SwiftIt’s only June, but discounting Taylor Swift in this category would be a mistake. “Toy Story” is the only franchise with a perfect best original song record, nominated for all four prior installments in 1995, 1999, 2010 and 2019, and a Swift-Antonoff chart-topper extends that streak with the genre’s biggest current star attached. A nomination would be Swift’s first. A win would leave her one Tony shy of competitive EGOT status, alongside the likes of Adele, Cher, Eminem and Lady Gaga, who are also waiting on Broadway. It will also help that the movie is undoubtedly the one to beat going into the fall.
-
Original Score: ‘Disclosure Day’
Image Credit: Niko Tavernise Distributor: Universal Pictures
Artisan: John WilliamsGuys, it’s 54-time Oscar nominee John Williams. End of sentence.
Other considerations: “The Invite” and “Project Hail Mary”
-
Visual Effects: ‘Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu’
Image Credit: LUCASFILM Distributor: Walt Disney Pictures
Artisans: Jeff Capogreco, Trent Claus, Mark Dubeau, Kabir Verma (visual effects supervisors)A “Star Wars” movie has never missed a best visual effects nomination. Never. Even with a softer box office, it would be foolish to count this one out, at least this early in the game.
Other considerations: “Disclosure Day” and “The Sheep Detectives”
-
Sound: ‘Tuner’
Image Credit: Alan Markfield Distributor: Black Bear
Artisan: Johnnie BurnThe great British sound designer can do it all. An Oscar winner for “The Zone of Interest,” Johnnie Burn has made the notion of sound a central character across many of his outings such as “Under the Skin,” “The Lobster” and last year’s one-two punch of “Bugonia” and “Hamnet.” In Daniel Roher’s crowd-pleasing drama “Tuner,” which doubles as proof that Leo Woodall is a star, he does it again, which in ways plays like a distant cousin to another Oscar winner for sound, “Sound of Metal” (2020).
Other considerations: “The Invite” and “Michael”
-
Makeup and Hairstyling: ‘28 Years Later: The Bone Temple’
Image Credit: ©Sony Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection Distributor: Sony Pictures
Artisans: Flora Moody (hair designer/makeup artist), David Darby (HOD sculptor/lead concept designer)“The Substance” aside, it is criminal that this category hasn’t become an annual home for the horror genre. Nia DaCosta’s post-apocalyptic sequel, anchored by a ferocious Ralph Fiennes, brings the grit and grime to life through its zombies and satanic cults.
Other considerations: “Disclosure Day” and “Michael”
-
Film Editing: ‘Send Help’
Image Credit: ©20th Century Studios/Courtesy Everett Collection Distributor: 20th Century Studios
Artisan: Bob MurawskiYou can file this one under “a hope-diction,” but Sam Raimi’s survival horror thriller, featuring an awards-caliber Rachel McAdams, is one of the most purely fun movies of the year, January 30 dumping ground be damned. Much of the credit goes to Bob Murawski, the Oscar winner for “The Hurt Locker,” whose rhythmic cutting keeps the audience on at the edge of their seats.
Other considerations: “The Invite” and “Michael”
-
Costume Design: ‘The Devil Wears Prada 2’
Image Credit: Macall Polay Distributor: 20th Century Studios
Artisan: Molly RogersA massive box-office hit, the long-awaited sequel will push in categories like original song and maybe for its once-nominated star, Meryl Streep. In a movie built on fashion, costume designer Molly Rogers, inheriting the reins from previous nominee Patricia Field, is sure to be in the discussion by year’s end.
Other considerations: “I Love Boosters” and “The Sheep Detectives”
-
Cinematography: ‘Wuthering Heights’
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection Distributor: Warner Bros.
Artisan: Linus SandgrenOscar winner Linus Sandgren (“La La Land”) reunites with Emerald Fennell after “Saltburn” for her take on the Brontë classic, giving the adaptation a lush, painterly palette and gorgeously composed frames. The massive hurdle will be if the Academy will keep it in mind after a February release.
Other considerations: “The Invite” and “Project Hail Mary”
-
Production Design: ‘Backrooms’
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Distributor: A24
Artisans: Danny Vermette (production designer) and Trevor Johnston (set decorator)After his YouTube series went viral, Kane Parsons turns years of world-building into a feature-length psychological horror, with Chiwetel Ejiofor among the stars. The eerie ambiance of those empty expanses and endless hallways could be one of the most distinctive design feats the Oscars have ever entertained. I wonder if they would be so cool.
Other considerations: “The Invite” and “Wuthering Heights”
-
Animated Feature: ‘Hoppers’
Image Credit: PIXAR Distributor: Pixar
Artisans: Daniel Chong (director), Nicole Paradis Grindle (producer)Obviously, the new chatter is surrounding “Toy Story 5,” but remember, Pixar’s comeback year opened with this original adventure featuring some fun-loving beavers. The animated gem delights with big laughs and a hopeful heart, featuring smart, wacky and morally complex themes that Disney doesn’t really do elsewhere. We need more movies like this one.
Other considerations: “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” and “Toy Story 5”
-
Casting: ‘Leviticus’
Image Credit: Neon Distributor: Neon
Casting Director: Nikki BarrettLook at Nikki Barrett’s filmography: “Bring Her Back,” “The Babadook” and “Mad Max: Fury Road.” You see a casting director with an eye for the distinct, exactly right faces that a director’s world demands. For “Leviticus,” Adrian Chiarella’s Sundance sensation, she finds her perfect leads in Joe Bird and Stacy Clausen, teenagers in a fanatic religious community who summon an entity to purge their homosexual desires. She nails it, and the film is better for it.
Other considerations: “I Love Boosters” and “Obsession”
-
Adapted Screenplay: ‘Is God Is’
Image Credit: Courtesy of Amazon MGM Studios Distributor: Amazon MGM Studios
Writer: Aleshea Harris (based on the play by Harris)Aleshea Harris adapts her acclaimed play into a directorial debut brimming with storytelling ingenuity and stylistic verve. The revenge tale follows two sisters chasing justice after their father left them and their mother for dead, and Harris stages it with the confidence of a filmmaker who has been ready for years.
Other considerations: “The Invite” (Rashida Jones and Will McCormack) and “Project Hail Mary” (Drew Goddard)
-
Original Screenplay: ‘I Love Boosters’
Image Credit: Neon Distributor: Neon
Writer: Boots RileyWith gorgeous, colorful costumes and sets, all set against one of the year’s best soundtracks, “Sorry to Bother You” director Boots Riley gives us his take on the fashion industry, with a stellar cast that includes Keke Palmer, Taylour Paige and Demi Moore. Who would have thought this idiosyncratic story would be so much fun? The writers can rally behind this one.
Other considerations: “Obsession” (Curry Barker) and “I Swear” (Kirk Jones)
-
Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz (‘The Invite’)
Image Credit: A24 Distributor: A24
Role: PiñaWith impeccable chemistry with her all equally brilliant co-stars Seth Rogen, Edward Norton and Olivia Wilde, who also directs, Penélope Cruz makes magic on screen, which becomes another example for why she’s one of our best working today. As a sex therapist who is part of a wild evening in a San Francisco apartment, she operates at a level she has not reached since “Parallel Mothers.” It’s part of a huge year for the “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” winner, who also has the Cannes prizewinner “La Bola Negra” coming to Netflix and Florian Zeller’s “Bunker” opposite husband Javier Bardem.
Other considerations: Sandra Hüller (“Project Hail Mary”) and Keke Palmer (“I Love Boosters”)
-
Supporting Actor: Hugh Jackman (‘The Sheep Detectives’)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Amazon MGM Studios Distributor: Amazon MGM Studios
Role: George HardyKyle Balda’s comedy, adapted from the novel “Three Bags Full,” assembles an all-star voice cast that includes Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Bryan Cranston. The connective thread is Oscar nominee Hugh Jackman (“Les Misérables”) as shepherd George Hardy. This role could echo James Cromwell’s path from “Babe” to a 1995 supporting nomination. With a respectable $126 million at the box office and Jackman’s effortless likability, never a quality to take for granted, this one could strike a chord with a few voters.
Other considerations: James Ortiz (“Project Hail Mary”) and Edward Norton (“The Invite”)
-
Actress: Inde Navarrette (‘Obsession’)
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection Distributor: Focus Features
Role: Nikki FreemanIf “Get Out” had Daniel Kaluuya, “Obsession” has Inde Navarrette. The horror breakout lives and dies by its star as the co-worker and hypnotized love interest, with Navarrette delivering a physical and fearless turn. Destined to go down as one of the year’s most notable breakouts, Navarrette could become a critics’ darling, and with the massive box office still accumulating, Focus Features will be giving her a much-deserved push.
Other considerations: Emily Blunt (“Disclosure Day”) and Olivia Wilde (“The Invite”)
-
Actor: Robert Aramayo (‘I Swear’)
Image Credit: Graeme Hunter Pictures Distributor: Sony Pictures Classics
Role: John DavidsonThe BAFTA controversy put “I Swear” in the headlines (not the way the indie studio had intended), and it managed to bury the real story — Robert Aramayo very much deserved his BAFTA win. As a man living with Tourette syndrome, the 33-year-old English actor delivers an invigorating, deeply human turn that managed to top Timothée Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan for the leading actor prize on merit. While it won’t be eligible for BAFTA, its U.S. release this year puts it in contention for the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and Oscars. If enough voters watch, they can see why the performance was awarded.
Other considerations: Ryan Gosling (“Project Hail Mary”) and Seth Rogen (“The Invite”)
-
Director: Phil Lord and Chris Miller (‘Project Hail Mary’)
Image Credit: Amazon MGM Studios Distributor: Amazon MGM Studios
The “Lego Movie” and “21 Jump Street” duo make their live-action sci-fi leap with this adaptation of Andy Weir’s novel, and it is their most ambitious swing. Oscar history has not been kind to directing partnerships. Only four teams have ever been nominated together: Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins for “West Side Story” (1961, winners); Warren Beatty and Buck Henry for “Heaven Can Wait” (1978); Joel and Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men” (2007, winners) and again for “True Grit” (2010); and Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022, winners). Lord and Miller have a real shot at making the list if the studio can craft the right narrative for the duo.
Other considerations: Curry Barker (“Obsession”) and Olivia Wilde (“The Invite”)
-
Best Picture: ‘Michael’
Image Credit: ©Lions Gate/Courtesy Everett Collection Distributor: Lionsgate
Producers: Graham King, John Branca, John McClainSocial media isn’t ready to accept this premise.
Every season has an unofficial Oscar villain. Look back at “Emilia Pérez,” “Wicked,” “Green Book,” and the list goes on. This year, that villain has a billion dollars and a moonwalk.
Here’s the thing: “Michael” doesn’t need critics. All it needs is the Academy’s populist wing, the same bloc that widened best picture to 10 slots precisely to make room for movies the public embraced. Jaafar Jackson’s dynamic transformation into the King of Pop will be a talking point, along with Colman Domingo, who gives the film its antagonistic gravity. Add in the craft branches — especially for editing, makeup and hairstyling and sound — and you hand voters plenty of reasons to check the box.
Other considerations: “The Invite” and “Project Hail Mary”
Leave a Reply