Before the Denver Broncos’ divisional game against the Buffalo Bills, head coach Sean Payton sat his team down with a message.
A Broncos team and defense that excelled in myriad areas was missing a key ingredient likely to secure victory. Payton wanted them to understand the importance.
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“Sean sat us down and in the team meeting, he made a point of emphasis about the turnover differential and being on the plus side of that,” Broncos safety P.J. Locke told reporters. “He gave us a history lesson on teams that won the turnover battle through the playoffs, and it was like plus-17 through all the teams that made the playoffs.
“So we had to be real big on that.”
What ensued was a three-point overtime win against the Bills that became a statistical outlier in each team’s season. While the Bills had inconsistent ball security through the season, they’d previously turned the ball over no more than three times a game.
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The Broncos’ defense, despite ranking second in yards per game allowed (278.2) and third in points per game allowed (18.3), had secured no more than two takeaways per game during a year in which just three teams had fewer takeaways on the season.
No matter: The Broncos intercepted Josh Allen twice and forced three fumbles between Allen and running back James Cook to collect a season-best five steals.
Patriots and Drake Maye, beware.
Drake Maye was victorious in his first two playoff games, but he lost half of his six fumbles to the opposition. (Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports)
“We didn’t do a real good job in the regular season, so [the takeaway battle] was kind of emphasized to us in practice,” cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian said after nabbing the game-winning interception.
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“These last couple weeks have been making such an emphasis on getting the ball,” added edge rusher Nik Bonitto, who forced two fumbles. “[Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph] kind of broke it down easily. He’s like, ‘You know if you get the ball, you can still get a sack?’
“There’s been more of an emphasis.”
The Patriots know they need to expect the Broncos to hunt the ball, especially after an uncharacteristic uptick in fumbles during the postseason.
The Patriots lost three of Maye’s eight fumbles in 17 regular-season games. They’ve since lost three more of the six attributed to Maye in two playoff games.
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Maye is not the reason for all of the turnovers, head coach Mike Vrabel said. But the Patriots may need him to be the solution.
“We have to be able to not get careless with the football,” Vrabel said this week. “We can’t be reckless. And a lot of it is operation. I mean, we had two turnovers where we all weren’t on the same page. … You could have a negative play if you don’t have everybody on the same page. But even worse, you lose the football.
“The operation is going to be critical.”
Patriots’ ‘ball-security violators’ look different than they did 2 weeks ago
The Denver altitude will be a first for Maye, who said this week he hasn’t played a game in high altitude before.
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The volume of Empower Field at Mile High Stadium may surprise him less.
Maye has already accustomed himself to silent counts each road game. So while precision will be key, the Patriots do not anticipate it hinging on the crowd impact.
“I think from last week, I can improve on my operation of getting out of the huddle, getting guys in the right spot, just moving with a sense of urgency,” Maye said. “One of the biggest things with the guys up front is it’s my job to have a timer in my head, and … be mindful back there.
“Just know that my job is to protect the football.”
Maye did that remarkably well through the season, completing a league-high 72% of his passes even as he led the league with 8.9 yards per attempt, 9.46 air yards per attempt and a 113.5 passer rating. That league-best efficiency mark factored in his 1.6% interception rate.
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The Patriots travel to face a Broncos defense that led the league this season with 68 sacks, more than the runner-up Atlanta Falcons. The Broncos registered the highest sack percentage, at 9.7%, per Next Gen Stats, and the fifth-highest blitz rate at 32.1%.
“Drake is a great quarterback,” Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II said. “He’s got a lot of playmakers on the perimeter. They’ve got a great run game, so we’ve got to find a way to eliminate the explosives on their side and find a way to contain them.”
Nik Bonitto and the Broncos forced five turnovers against the Bills in their overtime victory against Buffalo in the divisional round. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
While Maye is coming off a career-high pressure-to-sack ratio (62.5%) last Sunday against the Texans, he has thrived against blitzes over the course of the season.
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Maye threw 15 touchdowns to zero interceptions when blitzed this season, per Next Gen Stats, and his 163 attempts without an interception against the blitz were the most in a single season since 2018.
Expect Maye to welcome extra defenders at the line of scrimmage and thus away from his downfield targets. But expect also the Broncos to see the Patriots’ fumble liability in recent weeks, and target it.
“I’m sure that they have highlighted all week the ball security violators, how they are careless with the ball [showing them all their turnovers], how to attack the ball and then drill it,” one assistant who played against the Patriots this season told Yahoo Sports. “Not only QB but [running back Rhamondre Stevenson was a] big time target as well. From HC on down it was a big emphasis [for us].”
An assistant coach from another team that faced the Patriots this season agreed. That coach’s advice to their players?
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“I would tell them to go straight for the ball over going for a sack,” the coach told Yahoo Sports. “I expect NE to lean on their run game to neutralize [the] Denver pass rush. Run the ball and high[-percentage] throws.”
For Patriots and Broncos, winning turnover battle could be ticket to Super Bowl
In the history of the conference championship game, winning teams have won the turnover margin 86 times, per Pro Football Reference data.
Teams that have tied the turnover margin have won 17 times.
Teams that have lost the turnover margin have won 15.
Winning despite losing the ball security battle is not impossible. But it is far less statistically likely.
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The Broncos needing to input backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who has attempted zero passes this season, could give the Patriots’ defense opportunities at takeaways.
That possibility motivates the Broncos’ defense even more to disrupt Maye and the Patriots.
“We always feel like every time we step out there on the field, we could change the game and always make game-changing plays,” Surtain said of the Broncos’ defense. “That’s what we put on our shoulders, you know what I mean?
“Each and every week the opponent gets tougher and the matchup gets tougher. That’s what playoff football is about. So each and every week, we feel like we’ve got to step up our game and level up our game as well.”
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Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will remind his unit that as much as it wants to thrive, mistakes and errors are likely to come. Turnovers often “have more of a team complexion to it than what you may understand with just the naked eye,” McDaniel said, even as the Patriots know they need to protect the ball better than the last two weeks because ball security will “be paramount this week in Denver.”
As important as the positive plays will be rebounding from negative ones.
Vrabel credited Maye’s ability to do that in recent games, while McDaniels said to buckle up for its need again.
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“You realize these games are not going to go just one direction,” McDaniels said. “It’s like a great boxing match. I don’t think either guy leaves the ring at the end of the fight if it’s a 12-round split decision where one of ’em thinks they really got the better of the other.
“When you’re playing in the playoffs against the best players, the best coaches, the best teams at this time of the year that are playing their best, which is really what this is all about, there’s going to be some plays in the game that you got to live through and survive, and you got to come back and play your best football as the game goes on.
“And make enough plays to win, which is all that matters.”
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