$XRP has embarked on an impressive recovery push, but it must first close above the 20- and 50-week EMAs to confirm a bullish breakout.
The broader crypto market has seen renewed buying pressure, with the global crypto market (TOTAL) adding over $229 billion in less than two days. As a result, the global crypto market cap has recently hit a 3-month peak of $2.42 trillion.
$XRP has since taken advantage of this upward push, posting its own gains and outperforming the broader market. After starting the week slow, $XRP has turned its fortunes around, up 20% this week at press time.
However, market data indicates that $XRP remains in a bearish position despite the recent rebound surge. Essentially, the crypto asset still has multiple roadblocks to conquer before it can confirm a shift in market structure from bearish to bullish.
$XRP Must Close Above Key Weekly EMAs
Two of these roadblocks involve the 20-week and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs). While $XRP has gained more than 20% since the start of the week, its price at $1.1912 remains below these two moving averages, confirming that bears still maintain control in the mid-term.
At press time, the 20-week EMA stands at $1.2264, while the 50-week EMA holds around $1.5330. The last time $XRP traded around the $1.22 region was in mid-June, during a drop from a $1.29 high. Meanwhile, the token last saw $1.53 in May, three months ago.
Historical data shows that $XRP must first close a weekly candlestick above these EMAs before the market can confirm a bullish shift. Notably, previous price surges have always occurred on the back of a close above these moving averages.
For instance, in 2023, $XRP was able to flip its momentum bullish after prices closed above the 20 and 50-week EMAs in May. After this, $XRP saw a dramatic surge from $0.42 to $0.92 by July 2023, marking a 119% price increase within weeks.
A similar pattern played out in Q4 2024. Specifically, after $XRP closed above the 20-week and 50-week EMAs in early November 2024, the next week brought a massive 79% surge amid President Donald Trump’s election victory. This led to the bull run that pushed $XRP’s price from $0.5 to $3.4 by January 2025.
The Journey is Tough
However, breaking and eventually closing above these moving averages may not be an easy task for $XRP. Since losing these levels, the altcoin has made several attempts to push above them, but each attempt met stiff resistance from sellers.
When $XRP dropped below the 20-week EMA in October 2025, it immediately pushed to recover it four weeks later, but the asset faced resistance at $2.37 and eventually pulled back.
Also, after losing the 50-week EMA in November 2025, $XRP attempted to reclaim it during the January 2026 rebound push, but it witnessed another roadblock at $2.41 before dropping below $2 again. Another attempt in May 2026 faced resistance at $1.54, leading to another drop.
From the current price of $1.1912, $XRP would need only an additional 2.95% rise to push above the 20-week EMA. Meanwhile, the crypto asset would have to surge by a more substantial 29% to reclaim the 50-week EMA, making the journey to these levels a tough one.
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