Tag: Business – Decrypt

Hyperliquid traders have gained access to perpetual futures that track the S&P 500 under a licensing agreement between S&P Dow Jones Indices and Trade[XYZ], enabling round-the-clock speculation on the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S.

For the first time, investors outside the U.S. will be able to gain leveraged exposure to the stock index using an officially licensed product that’s also digitally native, the index provider said in a Wednesday announcement.

In recent months, Trade[XYZ] has broadened access to markets based on real-world assets like gold and oil on Hyperliquid. The startup offers contracts that are settled in Circle’s USDC stablecoin and accessible through the decentralized exchange.

“We developed XYZ with a vision of bringing the world’s most important markets on-chain,” Collins Belton, chief operating officer and general counsel at Trade[XYZ]’s parent company, said in a statement. “The S&P 500 is a natural starting point.”

Perpetual futures tied to indices and exchange-traded funds are becoming increasingly popular on Hyperliquid, following an upgrade last year that allows firms like Trade[XYZ] to create markets independently. On Sunday, perpetual futures tied to those products commanded 5.5% of Hyperliquid’s trading volumes at $215 million, according to a Dune dashboard.

Although that was far less than crypto (76%) and commodities (17%), the new licensing agreement shows that companies forming the bedrock of traditional finance are taking a closer look at the proliferation on-chain of perpetual futures.

Hyperliquid’s native token changed hands around $43 on Wednesday, a 7% increase over the past day. Its price has tumbled 27% from an all-time high of $59 in September. Still, HYPE has soared 225% over the past year.

Earlier this month, CFTC Chair Mike Selig indicated alongside SEC Chair Paul Atkins that his agency plans to establish a regulatory framework for perpetual futures in the U.S. soon. At the time, he argued the prior administration drove associated activity offshore.

Perpetual futures allow a trader to speculate on an asset indefinitely, and their prices are anchored to their underlying asset through periodic payments, known as a funding rate. Over time, they have become the dominant form of derivatives across global crypto markets.

Hyperliquid traders have gained access to perpetual futures that track the S&P 500 under a licensing agreement between S&P Dow Jones Indices and Trade[XYZ], enabling round-the-clock speculation on the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S.

For the first time, investors outside the U.S. will be able to gain leveraged exposure to the stock index using an officially licensed product that’s also digitally native, the index provider said in a Wednesday announcement.

In recent months, Trade[XYZ] has broadened access to markets based on real-world assets like gold and oil on Hyperliquid. The startup offers contracts that are settled in Circle’s USDC stablecoin and accessible through the decentralized exchange.

“We developed XYZ with a vision of bringing the world’s most important markets on-chain,” Collins Belton, chief operating officer and general counsel at Trade[XYZ]’s parent company, said in a statement. “The S&P 500 is a natural starting point.”

Perpetual futures tied to indices and exchange-traded funds are becoming increasingly popular on Hyperliquid, following an upgrade last year that allows firms like Trade[XYZ] to create markets independently. On Sunday, perpetual futures tied to those products commanded 5.5% of Hyperliquid’s trading volumes at $215 million, according to a Dune dashboard.

Although that was far less than crypto (76%) and commodities (17%), the new licensing agreement shows that companies forming the bedrock of traditional finance are taking a closer look at the proliferation on-chain of perpetual futures.

Hyperliquid’s native token changed hands around $43 on Wednesday, a 7% increase over the past day. Its price has tumbled 27% from an all-time high of $59 in September. Still, HYPE has soared 225% over the past year.

Earlier this month, CFTC Chair Mike Selig indicated alongside SEC Chair Paul Atkins that his agency plans to establish a regulatory framework for perpetual futures in the U.S. soon. At the time, he argued the prior administration drove associated activity offshore.

Perpetual futures allow a trader to speculate on an asset indefinitely, and their prices are anchored to their underlying asset through periodic payments, known as a funding rate. Over time, they have become the dominant form of derivatives across global crypto markets.

Prediction market users turned sharply negative on the prospects of a “crypto spring” as prices tumbled following hotter-than-expected inflation data.

On Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users now put the chance of a “crypto spring” at under 50%, down from over 62% earlier today.

Under Myriad’s rules, the market resolves “Yes” only if at least four of five targets are hit during the observation period ending May 31: BTC at $80,500, ETH at $2,400, SOL at $100, BNB at $750, and HYPE at $35. With HYPE already marked as hit, traders are effectively pricing whether at least three of the remaining four majors can still clear their thresholds.

The market shift came as leading cryptocurrencies slipped on the day, with Bitcoin trading at $71,610, down 3.8% on the day according to CoinGecko data. Ethereum, Solana and BNB slipped by 5.5%, 4.8% and 3.2% respectively.

Crypto prices dropped following the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ publication of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks changes in wholesale prices. Year-on-year, the PPI rose 3.4%, higher than the 2.9% annual increase anticipated by economists.

Speaking to Decrypt earlier today, GSR research analyst Carlos Guzman noted that the rise in prices would boost inflation concerns. The central bank could be forced to keep interest rates higher if elevated energy costs persist, he said, noting that it would be “bad for crypto” given that investors tend to favor risk assets when interest rates drop.

Predictors on Myriad consider the prospect of sweeping Fed rate cuts unlikely, placing just a 11% chance on a rate cut of more than 25bps before July.

A fake website impersonating Pudgy Penguins’ newly launched Pudgy World browser game is attempting to steal cryptocurrency wallet passwords, cybersecurity firm Malwarebytes Labs warned Tuesday.

In a report, Malwarebytes said the phishing operation, pudgypengu-gamegifts[.]live, uses highly convincing replicas of crypto wallet interfaces to deceive users. “Some features are tied to digital collectibles and in-game items stored in cryptocurrency wallets. That means the official game sometimes asks players to connect a crypto wallet to verify ownership of items or unlock additional features,” Stefan Dasic, senior malware research engineer and report author said.

“The phishing site abuses that step: When a visitor selects their wallet on this fake site, it shows what appears to be that wallet’s own unlock screen. To the user, it looks for all the world like the real crypto wallet software they already trust.”

Phishing remains one of the most widespread forms of cybercrime. According to the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3), phishing and spoofing scams accounted for 193,407 complaints in 2024, with reported losses exceeding $70 million. It is not known if anyone has fallen victim to this particular site.

What is Pudgy World?

The warning comes a week after the launch of Pudgy World, a free-to-play browser game tied to the Pudgy Penguins NFT brand. The game, which went live on March 10, allows players to explore a virtual world, customize penguin avatars and complete quests, with some features requiring users to connect cryptocurrency wallets.

Pudgy Penguins has grown rapidly since being acquired by CEO Luca Netz in 2022, expanding from an NFT collection into a broader consumer brand with retail products, a mobile game and now a browser-based game. The collection has a floor price of 4.25 ETH ($9,500), according to CoinGecko, far below 88.3% its December 2024 high of 36.33 ETH.

Dasic said the timing of the campaign appears deliberate, coinciding with the game’s launch and the influx of new users unfamiliar with crypto wallet security practices.

“The range of wallets targeted is also significant. The campaign leaves almost no wallet blind spot,” he said. “Whether the victim holds Ethereum, Solana, or multi-chain assets, there is a convincing forgery waiting for them.”

“Building 11 wallet-specific UI forgeries is not a trivial undertaking,” Dasic added, noting that it suggests either a “well-resourced threat actor” or the reuse of a commercial phishing kit built for this class of attack.

Such tactics are common in crypto-related scams, where attackers register domains that closely resemble legitimate ones or manipulate search ads to appear authentic. For example, fraudsters may send out official-looking emails using a domain with “.qov” instead of “.gov” in the hopes people won’t notice the slight difference.

Pudgy Penguins has previously been targeted by scammers using fake sites. In December 2024, blockchain security firm Scam Sniffer warned that attackers were using malicious Google ads to impersonate Pudgy Penguins platforms and trick users into connecting their wallets.

Users are advised to access official sites only through trusted bookmarks, avoid clicking links from social media or direct messages, and remember that legitimate wallet password prompts do not appear inside webpage content. Malwarebytes also recommended changing wallet passwords immediately if credentials were entered on a suspicious site and considering moving funds to a new wallet if compromise is suspected.

Pudgy Penguins has been approached for comment.

Crypto exchange and custodian Gemini’s stock dropped more than 16% after Citigroup analysts downgraded the company Wednesday morning, suggesting that it’ll be years before the firm is profitable.

The company, which trades on the Nasdaq under the GEMI symbol, saw its rating fall from Neutral to Sell, and Citi lowered its price target from $13 to $5.50, according to a note published Wednesday morning. At the time of writing, GEMI was changing hands for $5.95 per share after having dropped more than 16% since markets opened.

Gemini was founded in 2014 by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss and went live the following year. The firm was initially focused on Bitcoin trading, before it expanded to offer a broader suite of crypto products and services. Now the platform caters to both retail and institutional clients with its spot trading, derivatives, staking, institutional-grade custody, an over-the-counter desk, a stablecoin, and a crypto rewards credit card.

The company went public on the Nasdaq Global Select Market last September, pricing its IPO at $28 per share and raising $425 million—valuing Gemini at roughly $3.3 billion. Capital.com The Winklevoss twins had considered going public as early as 2021, around the time of Coinbase’s debut, but delayed those plans amid the 2022–23 crypto downturn and regulatory uncertainty.

Wednesday’s Citi downgrade puts the stock well below that offering price.

The company is scheduled to release its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 report on Thursday, followed by a conference call to discuss the results before the bell on Friday.

The company has been taking steps to cut costs. In early February, the firm said it had approved a plan to exit and wind down operations in the U.K., European Union, and other European jurisdictions, and Australia, “as part of a broader initiative to reduce operating expenses and support the company’s path to profitability.”

The wind down gave users in those regions two months to withdraw funds before their accounts are forced to close on April 6. At the same time, Gemini slashed its head count by 25% and said it would lean more on AI to drive efficiency gains.

“We expect this will help reduce our total expenses in line with our headcount reduction and meaningfully accelerate our path to profitability even in the backdrop of the current crypto market,” the Winklevoss twins wrote in a joint blog post at the time. “Simplify, consolidate, then accelerate. Onward!”

Citi also lowered its price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum earlier this week, adjusting its 12-month forecast for BTC from $143,000 to $112,000 and for ETH from $4,304 to $3,175.

Bitcoin was recently trading for about $71,250 with Ethereum priced at $2,175. Both were down Wednesday following worse-than-expected U.S. inflation data and growing investor concerns over the ongoing conflict in Iran.

Citi strategist Alex Saunders wrote that while previously regulatory developments helped foster greater adoption and inflows, the opportunity for significant U.S. legislative action this year is diminishing.

The upcoming midterm elections in November could complicate the legislative landscape for crypto-focused regulation.

The odds for the crypto market structure bill, or CLARITY Act, could shift dramatically if Democrats gain additional seats in Congress. The bill can’t advance without support from at least seven Senate Democrats.

Despite the falling price and bearish perspective from analysts, users on Myriad—a prediction market platform operated by Decrypt‘s parent company, Dastan—remained slightly bullish on Bitcoin’s near-term prospects, penciling in a nearly 55% chance that the coin’s next stop will be rising to $84,000 rather than falling to $55,000.

Tempo, the payments-focused layer-1 blockchain from Stripe and Paradigm, launched its mainnet on Wednesday, providing key infrastructure for the agentic economy in the process. 

Alongside the network’s launch, Tempo unveiled a new open standard for agentic payments—the Machine Payments Protocol (MPP). The protocol, co-authored by Stripe and the Tempo team, circumvents the “limitations of existing payment rails,” allowing agents to transact seamlessly. 

“MPP provides a standard way for agents and services to coordinate payments programmatically,” the network wrote. “Instead of each service inventing its own billing flow, MPP defines a simple protocol for requesting, authorizing, and settling payments between machines.” 

The open standard has already been enhanced by a pair of the network’s early launch partners, including global payments giant Visa, which extended MPP to support card-based payments, and Lightspark, which did so for Bitcoin payments on the Lightning Network. Stripe too added on functionality, creating support for “cards, wallets, and other payment methods.” 

“MPP lets an agent pay for services autonomously: An agent can request a resource from a service, and the service responds with a payment request,” the announcement reads. “The agent then authorizes payment from its wallet, the transaction settles instantly, and the service delivers the requested resource to the agent.”

According to the network, the functionality is possible thanks to its introduction of “sessions,” which allows for a stream of payments to be made programmatically based on existing, defined limits. The network has already released a directory of compatible services with which agents can interact with and pay for, including those from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. 

In addition to its agentic enhancements, Tempo says it “architected the infrastructure” to combat traditional, arcane solutions related to global payments, cross-border remittances, and more. 

The network’s focus on the agentic economy amplifies a crescendoing trend among blockchain companies. In September, the Ethereum Foundation created its own artificial intelligence team, signaling the importance of the technology and its potential interplay with blockchain and cryptocurrencies. 

The foundation’s initial focus was on ERC-8004, an Ethereum Improvement Proposal that similarly enables agents to transact seamlessly across the Ethereum blockchain. It also backed an open-source protocol from Google that tackles the same issue. Crypto exchange Coinbase has also been focused on enabling agentic payments, launching a wallet with built-in guardrails in February.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued broad guidance towards the crypto industry on Tuesday, with SEC Chair Paul Atkins declaring that “most crypto assets” would not be considered securities.

The guidance provides distinctions between which types of assets do not meet the definition of securities and what would make an asset meet that definition as an investment contract.

It also notes that protocol mining (as on Bitcoin) and staking, along with crypto airdrops—or tokens sent to a protocol’s users and contributors—do not meet that definition.

“After more than a decade of uncertainty, this interpretation will provide market participants with a clear understanding of how the Commission treats crypto assets under federal securities laws. This is what regulatory agencies are supposed to do: draw clear lines in clear terms,” said Atkins, in a statement.

“It also acknowledges what the former administration refused to recognize—that most crypto assets are not themselves securities,” he continued. “And it reflects the reality that investment contracts can come to an end. This effort serves as an important bridge for entrepreneurs and investors as Congress works to advance bipartisan market structure legislation, which I look forward to implementing with [CFTC] Chairman Selig in the near future.”

In a statement released soon after the SEC’s own, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said that it would “administer the Commodity Exchange Act consistent with the SEC’s interpretation.”

“This is a major step in the agencies’ efforts to provide greater clarity regarding the treatment of crypto assets, and complements Congressional endeavors to codify a comprehensive market structure framework into statute,” the CFTC added.

Although lawmakers’ progress on the CLARITY Act has stalled in recent months, the SEC’s implementation shows that the regulator isn’t waiting for laws pertaining to the crypto market’s structure to be enacted before it establishes clearer rules for the industry.

Under the SEC’s prior leadership, the regulator focused on the classification of digital assets within the context of the Howey Test. The framework stemming from a Supreme Court case was cited frequently in enforcement actions against many crypto-native firms.

Atkins indicated that the SEC’s reliance on the Howey Test for assessing the classification of digital assets amounted to a “persistent failure to provide clarity on this question” of whether certain cryptocurrencies should be regulated by different agencies.

“We’re not the Securities and Everything Commission,” Atkins said Tuesday afternoon, prompting a burst of applause from the audience of crypto industry professionals gathered at the DC Blockchain Summit.

The taxonomy included in the SEC’s implementation divides digital assets into five groups: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins, and digital securities.

Digital securities are the only type of digital asset that the SEC says fall squarely within its regulatory remit, according to a fact sheet. That includes tokenized securities, which are digital representations of traditional investments, including stocks and U.S. Treasuries.

In order to be classified as a digital commodity, the SEC and CFTC plan to assess whether a digital asset derives its value from the programmatic operation of a “crypto system,” as opposed to an expectation of profit that stems from the essential managerial efforts of others.

Within the context of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are broadly considered to be digital commodities, those assets play a foundational role in securing their respective networks across a decentralized group of market participants.

The SEC says digital collectibles are linked to creative works like music and artwork, but they can also represent in-game items or references to internet memes. The definition suggests that most NFTs and meme coins would fall under that umbrella. Those are distinct from digital tools, which can function as a membership or event ticket, along with a virtual identity.

The SEC’s implementation says “non-security crypto assets” may be classified as investment contracts under certain circumstances, depending on representations that issuers make. Still, the existence of an investment contract does not make the digital asset a security during transactions that take place on a secondary market like an exchange.

On top of that, non-security crypto assets that are tied to investment contracts may not be subject to federal securities laws if there’s no longer a reasonable expectation from a purchaser that the issuer’s representations and promises are connected to the digital asset.

On Tuesday, Atkins also previewed a potential safe harbor exemption for certain crypto projects, which the SEC has teased for some months. 

The SEC chair said such exemptions could soon apply to startups worth up to $5 million seeking to experiment with crypto assets in their first four years; to entrepreneurs raising up to $75 million via investment contracts involving certain crypto assets; and to certain crypto assets once their creators have ceased all essential managerial efforts.

Atkins said he expects the SEC to release such proposed rules for public comment in “the coming weeks.”

Additional reporting by Sander Lutz

Editor’s note: This story was updated after publication with additional details and comments.

In a move that could shape how self-custodial cryptocurrency wallets interact with regulated markets in the United States, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has allowed Phantom Technologies to offer derivatives access without registering as an intermediary.

The CFTC’s Market Participants Division issued the “no-action” letter on Tuesday, effectively promising not to pursue enforcement action against Phantom for failing to register as an introducing broker. The decision specifically covers the Phantom software wallet, which acts as a bridge connecting individual users to registered futures commission merchants, brokers, and designated contract markets.

“As America cements its position as the crypto capital of the world, clear rules of the road for software developers are critical,” CFTC chair Mike Selig wrote on X. “Today’s staff no-action letter delivers long overdue clarity for non-custodial digital wallet software providers.”

While the relief provides a significant tailwind for the firm, it is not a blanket pass. The CFTC’s position is contingent on a specific set of conditions designed to maintain market integrity and consumer safety.

“The process that led to Phantom’s no action relief is how the regulatory process should work,” Phantom Technologies General Counsel Kevin Jacobs said in a statement. “With thanks to the CFTC’s willingness to open their doors to facilitate innovation, we proactively engaged with the CFTC to seek clarity on how a non-custodial interface like Phantom could offer access to regulated markets through a registered partner, without acting as an intermediary that needs its own registration.”

While he praised the ruling, Jacobs acknowledged its limits, saying it does not cover DeFi derivatives—price-based trading contracts offered through blockchain apps—or tokenized prediction markets, like Polymarket.

The decision arrives as crypto firms increasingly seek clarity on how self-custodial tools fit into legacy financial frameworks. In January, a bipartisan Senate bill was introduced to clarify that crypto developers who write or maintain blockchain code shouldn’t be treated as money transmitters—unless they actually control users’ funds.

“Phantom never touches customer funds,” Jacobs wrote.

While the CFTC did not name any other wallet developers, Phantom—which primarily serves users on the Solana blockchain network—suggested that this outcome could serve as a viable model for other wallet providers looking to integrate with regulated markets while maintaining a non-custodial structure.

“A critical part of making crypto safe and easy to use is building financial products that are governed by clear, common-sense regulations,” Phantom CEO Brandon Millman said in a statement. “When warranted, engaging regulators early to find compliant pathways for these new products produces better outcomes for our users, for the industry, and for regulators themselves. This letter is proof of that.”

Despite the immediate relief, the CFTC maintained its prerogative to shift course. The agency noted that this no-action position is an administrative shortcut that could eventually be superseded by formal rulemaking or broader industry guidance.

Still, Jacobs said the decision reflects the company’s focus on building compliant, user-focused products.

“Phantom was built on the belief that crypto should be safe and easy to use,” Jacobs wrote. “We’re committed to continuing to lead the way on developing products that are innovative, compliant, and put the user first.”

The CFTC did not immediately respond to Decrypt‘s request for comment.

While headlines have focused on soaring oil prices as a result of the Iran conflict, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic is impacting a wide range of commodities, from aluminum to plastics.

Nitrogen-based fertilizer urea is one of the key commodities whose supply chains have been disrupted by the conflict. Around 16 million tonnes of fertilizers, a third of global seaborne trade, passes through the Strait, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development—over two-thirds of which are urea.

Prices of the fertilizer moved higher this week, with Trading Economics showing the benchmark at $601 per ton as of March 16, up more than 34% over the past month and 57.0% from a year earlier.

A newly listed market on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, is tracking a near-term urea threshold: whether the benchmark is above $610 on March 25. Urea is primarily used to supply nitrogen for crop growth and is also used in some animal-feed applications. Its production economics are linked to energy inputs, especially natural gas, making fertilizer prices sensitive to wider energy-market volatility.

Oil has moved through the same geopolitical risk channel, with Trading Economics recently showing WTI crude near the upper-$90s amid conflict-driven supply concerns. Predictors on Myriad currently place a 65% chance on oil’s next move taking it to $120 rather than $55, down from highs of 76% yesterday.

That cross-market volatility has also sparked price swings in crypto, with Bitcoin surging as high as $75,000 Tuesday morning. Analysts at QCP Capital said Monday that the cryptocurrency’s recent price action suggests the “the narrative of Bitcoin as a ‘digital safe haven’ or ‘geopolitical hedge’ may be resurfacing, with markets stress-testing that thesis in real time.”

OpenAI isn’t slowing down. Less than two weeks after launching GPT-5.4—itself released just two days after GPT-5.3—the company dropped two more models on Tuesday: GPT-5.4 Mini and GPT-5.4 Nano.

These aren’t stripped-down versions of the flagship model—they’re purpose-built machines designed for the kind of work where waiting half a minute for an answer is not an option.

OpenAI calls them its “most capable small models yet,” saying that GPT-5.4 Mini is more than two times faster than GPT-5 Mini. If you’ve ever watched a coding assistant think for 45 seconds before editing three lines of code, then you understand the appeal of a fast model.

So why would anyone release a less accurate model on purpose? The short answer: because accuracy isn’t always the bottleneck. If you’re running a customer service chatbot that answers the same 200 questions all day, then you don’t need the model that scored best on PhD-level chemistry exams. You need the one that responds in under a second and costs a fraction of a cent per reply. That’s the space these models are built for.

But it doesn’t mean these models are dumb or unreliable. On coding benchmarks, GPT-5.4 Mini scored 54.4% on SWE-Bench Pro—a test that measures a model’s ability to fix real GitHub issues—compared to 45.7% for the old GPT-5 Mini and 57.7% for the full GPT-5.4.

On OSWorld-Verified, which tests how well a model can actually operate a desktop computer by reading screenshots, Mini hit 72.1%, just shy of the flagship’s 75.0%—and both clear the human baseline of 72.4%. GPT-5.4 Nano, meanwhile, scores 52.4% on SWE-Bench Pro and 39.0% on OSWorld—lower than Mini, but still a major leap over previous Nano-class models.

“GPT-5.4 marks a step forward for both Mini and Nano models in our internal evaluations,” Perplexity Deputy CTO Jerry Ma said after testing both. “Mini delivers strong reasoning, while Nano is responsive and efficient for live conversational workflows.”

Instead of routing every single task through an expensive flagship model, you can now build systems where the big model plans and coordinates while smaller models handle the actual grunt work in parallel—searching a codebase here, reading a document there, or processing a form somewhere else. As we saw in our GPT-5.4 vs. Grok 4.20 comparison, where the model sits in the workflow matters as much as which model you pick.

GPT-5.4 Mini runs at a rate of $0.75 per million input tokens and $4.50 per million output tokens via the API. GPT-5.4 Nano is even cheaper: $0.20 per million input tokens and $1.25 per million output tokens—a price point that makes running a huge amount of queries per day financially realistic for startups. For context, Nano is roughly four times cheaper than Mini on inputs.

For regular ChatGPT users, GPT-5.4 Mini is available today to Free and Go users via the “Thinking” option in the plus menu. Paid subscribers who hit their GPT-5.4 rate limits will automatically fall back to Mini. GPT-5.4 Nano, however, is API-only for now—OpenAI is clearly positioning it as a developer tool, not a consumer one.