In his latest video, Benjamin Cowen, a leading analyst in the cryptocurrency market, evaluated Bitcoin’s current price movements using historical data and “seasonality.”
Analyzing Bitcoin’s return to the $77,000 level, Cowen warned investors about potential weakness in the coming weeks.
Cowen noted that Bitcoin’s current trajectory bears striking similarities to the “US midterm election years” cycles of 2018 and 2022. According to the analyst, Bitcoin hit a low of $60,000 in February, followed by a higher low in late March and early April.
However, Cowen argued that this was not an absolute bullish signal, but rather that “time-based capitulation” within a bear market was more significant than price-based decline.
One of the most striking points in the analysis was the risks projected for late April and early May. Cowen predicts that Bitcoin could reach a local peak at the end of April, similar to 2018, and then decline again at the beginning of May after sweeping that high.
The Fed meeting on April 29th stands out as one of the biggest risk factors for the markets. Bitcoin is currently facing resistance at the 100-day moving average. If this level is breached, the next major resistance point is expected to be the 200-day moving average.
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Cowen stated that tracking USDT and USDC dominance is critical for understanding market direction, and noted that stablecoin dominance finds support at the 100-day moving average.
This suggests that the tendency for investors to move risky assets (like Bitcoin) to cash remains strong, and Bitcoin could retest the $60,000 level later this year.
Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin is highly likely to be rejected from the bear market resistance band, and a true bottom can only be confirmed after these levels are tested repeatedly throughout the year.
According to the analyst, May and June historically remain “weakness windows” for crypto markets.
*This is not investment advice.
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