I know there are a lot of folks proclaiming they can’t believe we’re into Week 15. But I can. Think about all of the action we’ve witnessed since September. Even better, all of the chaos has left us with almost 20 teams with a mathematical shot to make the playoffs. Said another way, most of the games this weekend will feature teams fighting for the postseason. There’s fantasy football goodness across the board. But to help narrow our focus as we dig into each contest, here are two guys from each game I’ll be watching over the weekend.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles
He shouldn’t be anywhere near your starting lineup, but I do want to see if the Raiders continue to keep Jack Bech involved in the passing game. Since the Jakobi Meyers trade, Bech’s routes and targets have been on a steady incline, leading to the former Horned Frog earning a 21% target rate in Week 14. The combination of Las Vegas’ porous offensive line and the likely drop in passing quality with Geno Smith injured should keep Bech away from our rosters for now. But if you’re in a deeper league, he could be worth a stash.
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What used to be a one-two punch in the Eagles’ passing game is just a jab at this point. Sure, A.J. Brown got his way and is the focal point of the offense. But it’d be nice to see DeVonta Smith get the same looks. The deep shots aren’t connecting. Even on screen targets, Smith only picks up minimal yards. The Slim Reaper is still sitting at a 24% target rate over the last four games, indicating he’s still someone with enough volume to trust. But between his struggles and Hurts’ implosion, it’d be great to see them get back on the same page.
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars
OK, Brady Cook. You’ve gotten a full week of practice. Which receiver do you prefer? Many interested parties want to know. It only took one week for us to buy back into Adonai Mitchell. But his catchable target rate plummeted to 33% after Tyrod Taylor left Week 14. Meanwhile, John Metchie III led the way with a 63% on-target rate with eight looks. If we can see some improvement, either might be startable against the Saints in Week 16.
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I’m not saying I’m starting him, but I was encouraged by Brian Thomas Jr.’s performance in Week 14. By his early-season results, the second-year receiver functioned better on vertical and out-breaking routes than on routes across the middle. Coincidentally, Trevor Lawrence hit Thomas three times on a go-route for 87 yards. Of course, averaging 25.5 air yards per target is tough to bank on for fantasy value each week. So, for now, I’ll be watching the Jaguars’ passing game to see Lawrence and Thomas take another step forward together.
Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans
Let me walk you through a hypothetical. Michael Wilson earns 15 or more targets against the Texans. It’s a mark he’s hit every time Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t been active. Wilson crosses the century mark for the third time this season. But after doing it against the Texans, we start talking about Wilson as the real deal. There are no more caveats. No asterisk needed. If you do it against the best, you’re the best (on the Cardinals).
I know applying the transitive property to people can be hit or miss. But if Puka Nacua just dunked on the Cardinals for 167 yards, what do you think Nico Collins is going to do? C.J. Stroud has only been back for two games, but his WR1 has averaged nine looks a week with him back under center. And with Collins winning on those perimeter looks downfield, we should expect to see him as a top-12 finisher by Sunday night.
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Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Mark Andrews had a surprise limited practice session on Thursday, and Isaiah Likely has been at a 16% target rate over the last month. Oh, I forgot. The Ravens are playing the Bengals, too. You know, the same defense that is giving up 96.8 yards per game to TEs. That’s over 25 yards more than the next closest coverage unit. At this point, even if Andrews suits up, Likely should be in your starting lineup.
I need to recite a few numbers to you:
Those are Ja’Marr Chase’s stat lines from the last three times he’s played against Baltimore. The Bills had the right game plan to hold Chase to just five catches. And the aftermath of yet another crushing loss has the media questioning Joe Burrow’s desire to keep playing. I know of a good way to get folks to change the subject: get Chase a similar stat line and win at home.
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Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
I didn’t really understand the term “gamer” until I watched Justin Herbert on Monday night. He had hand surgery the previous week and still took seven sacks. On top of those hits, because his offensive line couldn’t block, Herbert ran the ball 10 times. Luckily, the Chiefs’ defensive injuries should give him a couple of extra beats to find an open receiver. But if the Chargers want to squash any hopes of Kansas City making it to the postseason, we need another performance from Herbert like we got in Week 14.
Xavier Worthy disappearing into the “non-Rashee Rice” portion of the offense was not something I had on my bingo card. With his QB averaging the fifth-most attempts per game, and his QB’s name being Patrick Mahomes, you’d think Worthy’s skill set could stand out. But after four straight weeks under a 20% target share, Worthy is just another guy in the passing game.
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Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears
The Browns’ QB carousel and general state of the offense have overshadowed Harold Fannin Jr.’s rookie season. Even in the games with David Njoku, Fannin averaged almost two more targets per game (6.3 to 4.5). And without the veteran TE throughout most of last Sunday, the Canton native took over the Browns’ passing game for 11 targets. His quality of targets may always be in question, but the volume should make him a mid-range TE1 for Week 15.
I don’t know how he does it, but Caleb Williams’ ability to handle pressure has been one of the biggest improvements to his game. It’s not to say he hasn’t hit the turf a few times this season. Williams has taken 20 sacks so far this year. But by this same time in ’24, he was at 56. His mobility has not only aided in padding his fantasy totals, but it’s kept drives alive as Williams has generated the ninth-most rushing first downs of any QB. So, even against a tough Browns’ defense, I’m starting Williams.
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
Terry McLaurin has been back for two weeks and seen target shares of 30% and 28%. He kept the Commanders alive against the Broncos. Deebo Samuel Sr. had just one more attempt thrown his way against the Vikings. And I have confidence Marcus Mariota will move the ball against the Giants. But we haven’t seen Mariota and a healthy McLaurin for a full game together. New York continues to let WR1s get by them, setting up McLaurin for a big day in the box score.
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The core tenets of Jaxson Dart’s upside as a fantasy option were still there in his return to action against the Patriots. He was distributing the ball to Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson all night. Dart even took off four times. But he was still taking unnecessary hits on the move. There’s no problem with the young guy using his youth to keep the offense on schedule. But let’s hope the bye week gave him some time to learn how to protect himself.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
I think it’s safe to assume that the Patriots’ pass rush off a bye can generate more pressure than Cincinnati’s. Accordingly, Josh Allen will have less time to find receivers downfield. But which pass-catcher Allen will choose is the dynamic to watch. Dalton Kincaid only played on 34% of the snaps in his first game back. He’s logged full practices throughout the week, putting him in the best position to lead the way in Week 15.
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Part of the Bengals’ success against Buffalo was their running game. Specifically, the use of Chase Brown, an RB with utility in the power running game and aerial attack. New England has a rusher with similar abilities, but the coaching staff has preferred a committee. However, if they’d like to keep the pressure off Drake Maye, finally leaning on TreVeyon Henderson should pay dividends for them.
Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks
I am 42 years old. My ankle hurts, my knees are sore and my back hurts just sitting in my chair writing this piece. The starting QB for the Colts is almost two years older than I am. There’s no telling what Philip Rivers has left in the tank after taking a five-year hiatus. Even with his familiarity with HC Shane Steichen’s scheme, once the defenders start rushing, we’re all going to be waiting to see what happens next.
If you’re just a box score scout, you’d look at Sam Darnold’s 249-yard output against the Falcons without any issue. However, Darnold had just 67 yards and an interception at the half. He was inaccurate and took multiple sacks. Halftime served him well as both he and Jaxon Smith-Njigba re-established contact to close out the game, but I’m interested to see if Darnold can start clean against the Colts.
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Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Assuming I gathered the right takeaway from Carolina’s Week 13 upset of the Rams, HC Dave Canales wants his running game to lead the offense. It’d make sense to take as much pressure off Bryce Young as possible. But Chuba Hubbard should be the starter. Rico Dowdle handled more carries, but Carolina’s original RB1 was more efficient with the ball both on the ground and through the air. Either should be worth a start in fantasy, but I’ll be watching to see if Hubbard gets the majority of the carries.
Tyler Shough can move, folks! I discounted the rookie’s rushing attempts over his first couple of starts because we were still seeing seven or 10 carries going to Taysom Hill. But Shough shucked off defenders on his way to the end zone twice. NextGenStats clocked him at 19.4 MPH on his first TD run. How he handles pressure might be something of a roller coaster, but the added ceiling with his mobility makes him a viable streamer in Week 15.
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers
The more I see of Chimere Dike, the more I know I’ll be overdrafting him in 2026. Tennessee’s return and slot guy continues to impress despite the trajectory of the Titans’ season. Dike took on 33% of the targets against the Browns, with Elic Ayomanor and Van Jefferson drawing the tough coverage on the outside. Despite their injuries, San Francisco has been able to mount a potent pass rush over the last month, which should keep Cam Ward on his toes. If he has to create on the fly, he’ll likely be looking for his slot receiver to move the offense.
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Ricky Pearsall has been back on the field for three weeks, but hasn’t seen more than five targets in a single game. But we know HC Kyle Shanahan’s scheme requires a lot of timing and rapport with the QB. The second-year receiver likely needed some time to get back into a rhythm. So, with the bye to get some more practice reps in, let’s see if Pearsall re-establishes himself at or near the top of the pecking order.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams
Jahmyr Gibbs is doing it again. However, it’s different than 2024. Last year, David Montgomery’s absence gave Gibbs all of the RB touches, vaulting him into the top five at his position. This season, the loss of Sam LaPorta is boosting Gibbs’ opportunities. The third-year rusher hasn’t seen fewer than five targets in three of the four games without the Lions’ TE1. The Rams’ run defense has already been suspect over their last few outings. Adding in the threat of Gibbs as a receiver is what the Lions will need to keep up with Matthew Stafford.
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Blake Corum may look like a “too good to be true” play in Week 15. His 26.1 PPR points are a career-high, and they came when the Rams were taking out their frustrations over an upset against the Panthers on the Cardinals. But Corum is a good RB with the ball in his hands. Period. Even before facing the Cardinals, the Rams’ RB2 was matching Kyren Williams in rushing success rate, forced missed tackles, and adjusted yards after contact. Corum was even generating more explosive carries on fewer attempts. Outside of keeping Williams fresh, the second-year runner has done enough to earn an increased share of the touches. And in what should be a tight race against the Lions, L.A. will need all the firepower they have to come out on top.
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos
Christian Watson is unbelievable. The man had ACL surgery this calendar year, and he’s exploding past defenders for long scores seemingly on a weekly basis. But fantasy managers rostering Watson should be on high alert. With Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden back, Watson was down to a 17% target rate after being over 30% in the two previous games. Jordan Love’s aggressive passing style will likely lead to at least one deep shot to Watson each week, but the added volatility may lead to a down week against the Broncos.
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I see you, RJ Harvey. With J.K. Dobbins sidelined, the rookie RB has taken on double-digit touches in three straight games. He’s found the paint three times over the last two weeks. But that was against the Commanders and Raiders. Green Bay isn’t as lenient against opposing rushers. With Harvey struggling from a down-to-down perspective, his output may dip despite the increased workload.
Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys
I’m a firm believer in the concept that progress isn’t linear. Essentially, playing more doesn’t mean you’re gaining new knowledge. The right plan, moment or instance can make all the difference. Watching J.J. McCarthy target nine different pass-catchers against the Commanders is evidence of this idea. HC Kevin O’Connell designed more short and intermediate routes to TEs and WRs, which had McCarthy throwing faster and in rhythm. With Dallas’ pass rush up next, I’d like to see more of the same to keep McCarthy upright and the ball with the Vikings.
Independent of CeeDee Lamb clearing the concussion protocol, I’ll be watching George Pickens throughout this game. I’ll let other folks debate his level of effort. If I see a guy with nine or more targets in six straight games, my bet will go the way of the volume every time. Granted, nearly a third of his attempts came after Lamb left the game, but Pickens, on those quick-hitting concepts, should be what keeps the Cowboys’ passing attack on schedule.
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Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
This game isn’t until Monday night. De’Von Achane opened up the practice cycle with a limited session. Let’s say the pattern continues into the weekend. The combination of Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon II was effective enough in Achane’s stead to keep the offense moving. In other words, unless we see multiple full practices from Achane, I’d keep Wright or Gordon on your bench as emergency options if you need them.
OK, Aaron Rodgers. Do what you did in Week 14 again. That man was pulling out the Discount Double Check celly after scampering into the end zone like it was 2022 last Sunday. On top of the rushing, he was flicking that ball downfield to DK Metcalf like they had both found the Fountain of Youth. The Dolphins’ pass rush presents the same challenges as Baltimore’s, so we might see a repeat of Rodgers looking like his old self in Week 15, too.