What is old is new again in the AFC. The stalwarts of the NFL at the beginning of the 21st century are now back on top of their respective divisions. The Broncos, Steelers and Patriots are partying like it’s 2014 (or 2004) and the Jaguars are appropriately playing like the Jaguars whose uniforms they’ve started donning again.
While the NFC has the Rams, Seahawks and Packers amongst other competitive teams and units, the AFC feels a little upside down, even if the standings are such a nod to the past that it would make the Duffer Brothers blush.
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I looked at the four teams that lead the AFC divisions with four weeks to go in what’s shaping up to be a wide-open conference and playoffs. Each team has two numbers that represent a split between how the teams have played at certain times, with certain players, or against certain opponents, and what that means for these current division leaders as they try to make a run in January.
Let’s dive in.
Denver Broncos
Number to know: 9th, 23rd
Those are, respectively, Bo Nix’s drop-back success rates against man coverage and zone coverage this season out of 29 qualifying quarterbacks. Nix’s splits against man and zone are stark and clear: He’s worse against zone.
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The good: Nix is essentially a top-10 quarterback this season against man coverage. He loves to take isolated receivers on the outside, primarily Courtland Sutton (but Pat Bryant is coming along, too). Against man coverage, Nix ranks fifth in EPA per dropback and ninth in explosive play rate, and his 7.1 net yards per attempt is a respectable 12th.
The bad: Against zone coverage, Nix is essentially a bottom-10 quarterback this season. He ranks 14th in EPA per dropback (going from .28, which is around an MVP-level mark, to .04) and his success rate drops from 48.2% to 41.7%, with his explosive plays (from 16.9% to 10.2%, which ranks 26th) and net yards per attempt (5.7, which ranks 20th) dropping as well.
It makes sense! Nix has a big arm and is a great athlete, but his inconsistent footwork and the frantic speed at which he processes make him too antsy to have consistent results when reading out zone coverages. Nix can be spooked by any coverage he doesn’t read out cleanly, like a horse (even a bronco, if you will) bucking at a loud sound. Nix will often choose to leave the pocket altogether rather than hang in there to move onto his second or third reads; 30.9% of Nix’s pass attempts against zone this season have come from outside the pocket, the highest rate in the NFL. He can fire in throws when he’s comfortable with the route and what he’s seeing, but it’s still inconsistent, even when Sean Payton attempts to streamline reads to one side being the man coverage-beating side and other to be the zone-beating side, or to cut the entire field in half on movement throws.
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Against man coverage, things are more streamlined for Nix. He can find his man-beating route (like Sutton on an isolated vertical route or slant) and let it rip with no worries about layering a throw over an intermediate defender. To further illustrate, 47.6% of Nix’s targets are to outside receivers against man coverage, which ranks fourth in the NFL; against zone coverage, that outside receiver rate drops to 34.9%, which ranks 20th. And Nix’s legs make him a weapon as a scrambler, especially against man coverage when defenders are paying more attention to receivers and not the quarterback.
Denver’s defense is full of banshees that are racking up sacks at a historic rate, and it’s mostly good-to-elite in every metric. The Broncos are deep up front, and they have Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss (I swear he’s good outside of getting dunked on every week), and Talanoa Hufanga wants to collect souls like Shang Tsung. They’re top-five against the run and don’t allow explosives.
That said, you can poke at them a bit with run plays with pullers, and they can be susceptible to targets to the slot. They’re 21st in EPA per pass but seventh in passing success rate, and 30th in EPA per pass allowed to slot targets when in zone coverage as well. That’s something to keep an eye on in Week 15 against the Packers and a now-healthy Jayden Reed. But it’s still an elite unit that takes it to offenses on every snap. It’s just their offense, and their quarterback, have to iron out their kinks to not meet a frustrating end to their season.
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New England Patriots
Numbers to know: 30th, 16th
Those are, respectively, the Patriot offense’s ranks in EPA per rush and Patriot defense’s rank in EPA per rush allowed this season.
Starting with the offense, the numbers get a little better since TreVeyon Henderson started to take a larger workload after Rhamondre Stevenson suffered a toe injury in Week 9 against the Falcons, with the Pats’ run game bumping up to 23rd in EPA per rush and 24th in rushing success rate. (Their 37.9% is inching toward that 40% threshold, though, which represents a good rushing attack.) Opponent adjustments don’t do the Patriots’ run game any favor, as they rank 31st in DVOA, ahead of only the Raiders’ atrocious ground “attack” (I use the term loosely).
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So far, it hasn’t hindered New England too much. Mostly because of a favorable schedule, and also because of the supernova/phenom/future MVP (if not this season, then before this decade wraps up) the Patriots have at quarterback in Drake Maye. There is also the hope that the return of rookie offensive tackle Will Campbell, who had a strong first season before being placed on IR, will help give this run game a further boost. Just a little bit more consistency can go a long way to help their young star signal-caller when defenses get tighter and tighter in the postseason. Especially when teams like the Buccaneers have already showed they are fine dropping eight into coverage (like Todd Bowles did in Week 10, one of the highest rates of his play-calling career), daring Maye to be patient and the Patriots to run the ball consistently. (Which they didn’t do that day. Henderson did have his two huge touchdown runs, which more than made up for it, but relying on home runs is a dangerous bet come postseason.)
The Patriots’ defense confounds me. Like their offensive brethren, they have faced an easy schedule (32nd in DVOA’s schedule rank, with the offense ranking 31st in their respective metric), and they have real strengths but real pickable aspects that will get tested by more competent offenses.
The Patriots play a mix of coverages and overall have a more bend-but-don’t-break style that almost plays, for lack of a better word, stereotypically? When the Patriots play two-high coverages (which they do at a slightly above league average rate, 37.7% of snaps vs. 35.2%), they allow themselves to get peppered underneath and on the ground while limiting big plays. They rank 25th in passing success rate allowed and 26th in rushing success rate when playing Cover 2, 4 or 6 this season. But they rank seventh in EPA per play, 26th in EPA per rush and eighth in EPA per pass allowed in those same coverages. Yielding very few big plays, especially on early downs, forces offenses to be methodical and into repeat conversion attempts on late downs (meaning third and fourth).
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And sure enough, the Patriots’ defense has stark splits in this regard. They’re dead last in passing success rate allowed on early downs this season, a blistering 52.9% rate against mostly toothless passing games. But because this is the Patriots’ defense, they sure enough rank first in passing success rate allowed on late downs at a 30% clip, half of the league’s 59.9% average. They’re first in net yards per attempt on late downs and second in sheer EPA per play. (You can, though, run on the Patriots on late downs, because of course you can. They are dead last in rushing success rate allowed on late downs, and out of the 28 runs they’ve faced, this season, the Patriots have allowed 23 to go for successful gains.)
Perhaps Milton Williams’ return will help keep their heads above water and force defenses to late downs. But it is something I’m keeping my eye on as the Patriots’ yards before contact allowed per run jumped from .71 from Weeks 1-8 (which would rank first over the entire season) to 2.36 yards before contact allowed per run since Week 9, which would easily rank dead last.
Eye test-wise and statistically, the Patriots are more consistent when they play single-high (man-to-man) coverages and let their talented cornerback duo of Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis do their thing. And the Patriots play a good amount of man coverage, especially as the downs get later.
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So, the TL;DR of the Patriots: They can stop the run when they think the opponent is going to run (when in base defense, on first and second down, etc.) and they can stop the pass when they think the opponent is going to pass (when in nickel or dime personnel, on third and fourth down, etc.). Their run game needs a little more work, and perhaps their bye week will stock up the ammo that this attack needs. And Drake Maye rocks.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Numbers to know: 29th, 5th
Those are Trevor Lawrence’s ranks in drop-back success rate before and after the Jaguars traded for Jakobi Meyers.
Meyers, a well-rounded wide receiver whose skill set fits in any type of scheme or ecosystem, had been withering away in the Las Vegas desert before the Jaguars made a move for him at the trade deadline. But as soon as he stepped on the football field in teal and black, he became a steadying force for the Jaguars’ sometimes explosive but oftentimes frustrating pass game.
Lawrence ranks first in the NFL in completions of 10 or more yards since Week 10 (he was 14th in the first half of the season) and seventh in explosive pass rate. Opportunities over the middle of field are no longer being called “hospital balls” due to Brian Thomas Jr’s lack of fondness for running over the middle. Instead, they’re now highlights featuring long catch-and-runs by Meyers — and that same Brian Thomas Jr. laying key blocks down the field.
Lawrence, who has always been willing to work the upper half of high-lows and push the football (especially when he’s really feeling it), is throwing between the numbers at the highest rate in the NFL since Week 10. He’s pushing it over two yards further on those throws, too, from 6.6 air yards per attempt and a 49.3% success rate on throws between the numbers before Week 10 to 8.8 air yards per attempt and a scorching 60.3% success rate after Week 10, for a tidy .29 EPA per dropback.
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Meyers’ all-around game, along with the return of tight end Brenton Strange, has freed Thomas Jr. to do what he’s best at. Namely, vertical and outbreaking routes where he can use his speed and size, while keeping him from too much contact that can happen on in-breaking routes. And sure enough, Thomas Jr. has rediscovered the confidence that made him look like such a star during his rookie year.
Lawrence, too, looks more confident in letting throws rip with Meyers around. So much so the loss of Travis Hunter for the season hasn’t been really felt. Hunter flashed all-world ability as a rookie, but also did look raw as a route runner and just lacked polish overall as a wide receiver. (Hunter looking to the sideline for help from Jaguars coaches whenever Lawrence changed a play became a weekly all-22 highlight for me.) That lack of polish, along with Thomas Jr. spiraling after a slew of early-season drops, led to a lack of trust for Lawrence to push the ball and try some throws. Instead, he tucked the football and scrambled rather than relying on one of his wide receivers to get to the right spot.
The Jaguars’ offense has had brilliant moments of design from Liam Coen and the coaching staff, as well as stretches of explosive execution from players, but it’s all too often felt chaotic. A late break of the huddle here, another illegal shift penalty there. Since their Week 8 bye week, the Jaguars have felt a little more buttoned up, going from a penalty per snap rate of 8.1% from Weeks 1-8 (which would easily rank highest if it were a full-season number) to 5.2% from Week 9 onward (a more respectable 17th).
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The offense, Coen and Lawrence included, feels like it’s taken a deep breath since the bye week. And I think Meyers has helped only calm everyone’s nerves. The offensive line is well-coached but lacks high-end talent, but with Lawrence playing like this along with a feisty defense full of players playing the best football of their careers, this Jaguars offense, and team, is suddenly feeling dangerous in a wide-open conference.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Numbers to know: 24th, 6th
Those are the Steelers’ defense’s ranks in EPA per pass allowed before and after Week 9.
Why week 9? That’s when they moved Jalen Ramsey to safety full time. Ramsey, truly one of the best defensive back prospects and players of the past decade-plus, has played at an All-Pro level as both an outside cornerback and as a slot defender in his career. His combination of size, speed, length and football IQ has allowed him to flourish in both spots and in multiple different defensive schemes, and it’s allowed him to transition flawlessly to playing safety (a position Ramsey played during his freshman season at Florida State, and some NFL teams even had him graded there as a prospect).
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After playing just 61 total snaps as a safety since 2019 (the furthest TruMedia’s position data goes back), Ramsey has played 354 snaps as a safety this season, with 75.8% of his snaps since Week 9 there. And Ramsey, like Charles Woodson and Rod Woodson before him, has hit the ground running while playing in the deep post.
Against the Ravens, there were snaps of Ramsey flying from depth and corralling Derrick Henry by himself. And then a few players later, there’s Ramsey cutting a crossing wide receiver and devouring them like a hawk taking down a sparrow. The Steelers just feel a little more shored up with Ramsey being there to erase mistakes and whatever the offense is trying. It’s not all perfect, of course, but the Steelers went from being a bottom-eight passing defense to firmly top-eight since Week 9. They’ve lowered the passing success rate allowed by 10% (to 38.7%, which ranks sixth since Week 9), with their net yards per attempt (7 to 5.8) on top of their EPA ranks improving, too.
The Steelers’ offense is death-by-4-yard gains, whether it’s on the ground or through the air. Arthur Smith seems downright giddy deploying Darnell “The Mountain That Rides” Washington, an extra offensive lineman, and multiple blocking wide receivers as Jaylen Warren spins his way for another solid gain. (Also, shoutout to the young, talented Steelers offensive line).
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The passing game is go-balls to DK Metcalf and checkdowns and swings to Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. Only eight running backs have a target share above 20% this year in the NFL; Warren and Gainwell are two of them. Aaron Rodgers’ 5.9 air yards per attempt ranks 449th among 452 qualifying quarterback seasons since 2013. His -3.2 average air yards to sticks (how close a quarterback throws the ball relative to the first-down marker) ranks 451st, only above Alex Smith in 2020 with Washington.
So, that’s the Steelers for you. A veteran defense with a veteran safety at the top of the pyramid and an offense that looks like Pigpen from Peanuts.
