The 2025-26 college football bowl schedule has now been completed, including the matchups for the College Football Playoff. With 36 bowls (and the CFP) to wager on, there are plenty of betting opportunities during bowl season, which began this Saturday, Dec. 13.
One bettor at BetMGM already had a not-so-merry start to the holiday season, losing $615,000 on three college football futures wagers when Texas, Penn State and Clemson all missed the CFP.
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Where are the betting opportunities in college football bowl season over the next few weeks?
Our college football handicapping trio of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng, Matt Russell will provide a best bet on every game below.
It’s important to remember that bowl season is unique in that bettors need to consider a number of factors that don’t usually apply in the regular season:
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Motivation of each team to be playing in the bowl
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Weather for game and at schools’ respective campuses
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Player injuries and opt-outs for NFL Draft
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Players entering transfer portal
Note: This file will be updated. Odds courtesy of BetMGM, lines subject to change.
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State (-14, 57.5)
Russell: Given these games are being played the maximum amount of time after announcement, I guess it was inevitable that this line, which opened at -9.5, would finally touch our projection at The Window of -14.5, before ticking back to -14 in some locations, including Yahoo! betting odds supplier BetMGM. While any early bet appears to be valuable relative to where this line looks to close, there’s a reason I waited to play against the move, versus betting the favorite along the way.
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Our natural projection for point spread also assumed that Rice starting QB Chase Jenkins would play. Jenkins has opted out, heading into the transfer portal, and has potentially caused the line to rise. However, that presumes that Jenkins was doing something for the Owls’ offense that no one else on the roster can do.
First-year Rice head coach Scott Abell runs the type of offense that a military academy would be proud of, running the ball over 600 times along with barely more than 200 pass attempts. With it looking like freshman Patrick Crayton Jr. (son of a former Dallas Cowboys receiver) will get the start, if Rice is going to run the ball three-quarters of the time is the quarterback that crucial to its win/cover probability?
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Playing in a deep American Conference, and getting no favors from their schedule, ended up causing the Owls to have a 5-7 record, and little respect from the betting market because of blowout losses to UTSA, Memphis, North Texas and South Florida. This matchup, against a mid-tier Sun Belt squad, is a step down in weight class, even considering the blind faith the market seems to have for Texas State over much of the last few years.
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Despite falling two wins shy of clearing their win total of 7.5, the Bobcats, and their 3-5 conference record — thanks to three straight wins to end the season, are still power-rated third in the Sun Belt, despite finishing with the ninth-best record. I don’t believe they’re a nationally-average team, the way this point spread does.
Admittedly, the Texas State offense can cook, but the Rice defense had solid Success Rate and Line Yards metrics against a tough slate of offenses, and should be able to slow the Bobcats just enough to stay within two touchdowns, given the clock should be moving when the Owls have the ball.
Bet: Rice +14
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (-3, 53.5)
Corbie: At first glance, it’s hard not to laugh at the idea of Mississippi State playing in a bowl game. This is a team that won just one SEC game all season, a mark so bleak it helped cash an under 1.5 SEC wins ticket from my preseason Yahoo article.
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But if you stop at the record, you’re missing the bigger picture. Mississippi State didn’t stumble into five wins — they earned them. Week after week, the Bulldogs competed at a level far above what their win total suggests, facing one of the most unforgiving schedules in college football and rarely looking overmatched. In terms of underlying performance and raw talent, this may quietly be the best five-win team in the country.
That context matters heading into this matchup with Wake Forest. Wake Forest’s offense thrives on change-of-pace looks, using tempo manipulation and delayed reads to create confusion. But Mississippi State has spent an entire season dealing with elite athletes, complex schemes and SEC-level speed. That trial by fire should show up here, particularly against a Wake Forest team that doesn’t possess the same physical ceiling as the Bulldogs.
Talent tends to matter more in bowl settings than resumes, and Mississippi State is loaded with players capable of going toe-to-toe — and potentially overwhelming — Wake Forest across all three phases. Motivation shouldn’t be a concern either, as this bowl represents a chance for the Bulldogs to put a bow on a season that was far more competitive than the standings reflect.
Bet: Mississippi State -3
Holiday Bowl: SMU vs. Arizona (-3, 52.5)
Russell: This one should be fun!
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Two teams that could easily be confused for the Spider-Man meme go at it in San Diego, where conditions should be ripe for two quarterbacks who’ve been making plays for the last two seasons, against defenses that define “bend but don’t break.”
SMU opened as a short favorite, right on my projection of -1.5, but the line has swung in Arizona’s direction, possibly because of a couple of mid-level opt-outs and concern that Mustangs’ star tight end RJ Maryland might be next to bail. However, all indications are that QB Kevin Jennings (returning to Dallas next season) will play, and that’s enough for me to buy into SMU.
As for the Wildcats, head coach Brent Brennan has taken a hard line about announcing opt-outs, refusing to do so out of supposed respect for the players and as part of some low-level subterfuge to confuse SMU. Sure.
If the line move is a result of power rating adjustments due to the Mustangs dropping the regular-season finale, blowing a chance at an ACC title and a return to the CFP, combined with Arizona’s rivalry-game win at Arizona State, then we’ll gladly take a field goal’s worth of points in what should conclude bowl season in electric fashion.
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Bet: SMU +3
