There were several storylines to track each week in the 2025 NFL season, but what about this offseason? Fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through five stories to watch before the 2026 fantasy season next fall.
The lack of quality options for teams in need of a quarterback
Sometimes in fantasy football, you can be the most talented player on the field and still need help to succeed. The perfect example of this is from “Bust of the Year,” Justin Jefferson. Without serviceable QB play, the first-round pick who finished as a top-10 WR every season of his career finished the fantasy year as the WR31 in PPG. The issue for players like Jefferson, Garrett Wilson and more is that, unlike in years past, there is little to no help on the way.
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Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza is the lone projected Day 1 starter of the 2026 rookie QB prospects, following a small class from 2025. Last season, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones helped in free agency, but 2026 has even fewer options. The way it looks now, the top free agent QBs are names such as Sam Howell, Malik Willis and Zach Wilson. Not exactly franchise names.
So, for the Colts and Falcons, who lost their QBs to injury; the Dolphins and Cardinals, who may leave their quarterbacks in the past; or the Jets and Browns, who don’t look to have a clear answer once again, the options are limited. After two consecutive years of low options and multiple season-long injuries, there are more than just those six teams in need of help. The lack of quarterbacks has led to a large number of 2025 fantasy busts. The safest WRs and even RBs will come from teams that have strong QB play to count on.
If the Dolphins make changes on offense, how will it impact De’Von Achane?
One of those key fantasy players who could have a new quarterback is De’Von Achane. After having the best floor in fantasy football this season, can the Dolphins running back do it without Tua Tagovailoa (and maybe Mike McDaniel) if Miami decides to make changes?
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Last season, Achane was the overall RB1 with Tagovailoa starting, averaging 22.6 PPR PPG. In the six games without Tua, he averaged 8.6. Achane played two games without Tagovailoa in 2025, and his PPG dropped by a lesser amount from 20.8 to 16.1. However, one of those two games came against the 32nd-ranked RB defense in Cincinnati, where Achane scored 60% of his points on just one run.
Playcalling is a significant factor to watch as well. Achane may not fit the prototypical bellcow look, but his volume rank among RBs is fifth-best in the NFL. His explosive play ability and receiving chops will keep him as a top fantasy back no matter what, but if his situation is heavily affected this offseason, his ADP may not be worth the risk.
There’s reason for optimism in Year 2 for 2025 first-round backs
Ashton Jeanty was not drafted into the greatest spot in the world. Omarion Hampton’s ADP turned out to be not much better after injury. But both were drafted extremely high in the NFL Draft for their position. Good things happen to nearly all who have been in their spot before. One of my favorite stats: all 10 RBs drafted inside the top 25 of the NFL Draft since 2015 have finished top-eight in fantasy PPG by Year 2. The few that failed as rookies (Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Melvin Gordon) all broke out in their second season as one of the top fantasy RBs.
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There is one key element to watch this offseason for both Jeanty and Hampton to see if they can join the club: the offensive line. No surprise, the two rookie running backs were at the bottom of the league in yards before contact this season. The talent was clearly shown in their rookie seasons, but even the best need help. If that help is indeed on the way, they’re great bets for stellar sophomore seasons.
The rookie tight end value is real
You can still watch players from this story on the field this upcoming weekend, one of those being Oregon’s star tight end, Kenyon Sadiq. The days of rookie TEs always underperforming are a thing of the past. 2023 TE1 overall Sam LaPorta. 2024 TE1 overall Brock Bowers. Over 13 PPG for rookie Tyler Warren before the Daniel Jones injury this season. The young TEs have joined QBs, RBs and WRs as high shots to smash ADP.
Sadiq has the best shot of being the next rookie TE hit. The Oregon star will face off against Indiana on Friday in the College Football Playoff Semifinals in a Big Ten rematch. He had one of his worst games of the season versus the Hoosiers earlier in the season with just two catches for 21 yards. Nonetheless, Sadiq is a projected first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft who has caught nearly 30% of QB Dante Moore’s touchdowns this season. With fantasy TEs consistently being a wasteland outside the top three TEs in ADP, rookies have shone as the clear upside choice for those punting on the position.
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Luther Burden III and more wide receivers who could break out next season
The stat with the most hype growing as of late has been first downs per route and how well-correlated it is to future fantasy football success. Chain movers simply grow their role when productive. Luther Burden III ranked fifth in the NFL as a rookie. The only four WRs better were Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Terry McLaurin. Good company.
The Bears WR averaged over 15 PPG in his last month of 2025 as his hype for Year 2 continues to grow. I personally prefer first downs per route over yards per route when predicting future outcomes, but Burden’s third-best rate of 2.71 yards per route to finish his rookie season is hard to ignore, especially when it’s behind only Smith-Njigba and Nacua.
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Some other names to keep an eye out for, based on per-route efficiencies, are Christian Watson, Ricky Pearsall and Zay Flowers. After his stellar Sunday Night Football performance, Flowers moved up to the WR4 in yards per route this season and 13th in PPG, counting Week 18.
His main problem is the second part of the stat: routes.
Although he’s near the top of the league in percentage of routes run, the Ravens ranked last (by a lot) in passing attempts per game.
Watson finished sixth in the same stat as the Packers WR was the clear No. 1 option. His value is incredible when he is healthy, which has not been often.
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Pearsall has had a similar story. He jumped up to the top 20 in first downs per route, but without staying healthy for a long stretch of the season, the sophomore failed to take the big jump in fantasy.
All could turn out to be big-time values in 2026 if they receive higher volume and stay healthy.
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