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Bitcoin’s rally to $78,000 ran into resistance last week, with Schwab’s digital assets strategist pointing to two investor cost basis levels that could keep prices rangebound—even as ETF inflows and ceasefire optimism provide underlying support.

The leading crypto is currently trading at around $76,800, down from last week’s high of $77,900, according to CoinGecko data. It is up 2.3% over the past 24 hours, supported by $1.4 billion in crypto fund inflows last week—the strongest weekly total since January.

The active investor cost basis, a measure of the average price paid for Bitcoin acquired via secondary markets, sits at approximately $78,000, the level where last week’s rally stalled, according to Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Currencies Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Above that, around $83,000 is the average cost basis across all spot Bitcoin ETPs, a level where new crypto investors may be inclined to sell to recoup losses. The 200-day simple moving average at nearly $87,000 represents the long-term price trend, sitting just above the $83,000 level.

“Both measures suggest that the average Bitcoin investor is currently sitting at a loss,” Ferraioli told Decrypt. “These levels could serve as much stronger areas of resistance than moving averages.”

Institutional demand may absorb selling pressure at those levels, according to Simon Jones, Co-founder and CEO of Reya.

“The 83,000 figure for spot ETP buyers is the more interesting level to watch,” he told Decrypt. “These are largely institutional investors who came in through regulated products, patient capital that came in for structural reasons rather than a quick trade. Given the sustained inflows we’ve seen, there’s a reasonable case that new demand absorbs any profit-taking at that level.”

Key market dynamics

On the bullish side, crypto funds have seen three consecutive weeks of positive flows, with U.S.-led inflows dominating at $1.5 billion last week, according to CoinShares. Morgan Stanley launched its spot Bitcoin ETF this month, with Goldman Sachs filing for its own Bitcoin income ETF shortly after, broadening institutional access and improving the leading crypto’s fundamental outlook.

That institutional demand is the most reliable catalyst, Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, told Decrypt. “We’ve seen multiple strong inflow days in April, including a standout $664 million single-day surge on April 17 led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This steady absorption of supply sets the current cycle apart from past retail-driven manias.”

However, headwinds persist. April tax season could prompt portfolio rebalancing that caps upside for risk assets, in general, while the U.S.-Iran ceasefire remains fragile.

Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, have assigned a 62% chance that oil hits $120 per barrel next, underscoring persistent geopolitical uncertainty. However, they remain optimistic in the mid-term, putting a 74% chance on U.S. President Donald Trump announcing the end of military operations against Iran before June.

While a retest of the 50-day SMA wouldn’t be surprising, Ferraioli said the market is still waiting for the CLARITY Act to pass as a “major catalyst to reset momentum” in the crypto market.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, often referred to as the CLARITY Act, has stalled in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, with scheduled markups delayed due to intense disputes over stablecoin yield provisions.

Until then, those resistance levels could keep prices relatively rangebound in the near term. Retail investors, however, remain bullish, assigning a 60% chance that Bitcoin stays above $76,000 by 4 pm UTC on April 22—up from 33.5% just two days earlier—suggesting sentiment can shift quickly if key levels hold.

The grandson of one of America’s most notorious crime figures has been sentenced to prison after he siphoned pandemic relief funds into crypto investments, an outcome experts say points to a pattern of opportunistic fraud during COVID-era aid programs.

Carmine G. Agnello, grandson of John Gotti, the former boss of the Gambino crime family, was sentenced to 15 months in prison for defrauding the Small Business Administration (SBA) of roughly $1.1 million through the Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program, according to a statement from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York.

Prosecutors said he diverted about $420,000 of those funds into a crypto business instead of using the money to support his company.

He pleaded guilty in September 2024 to wire fraud and was also ordered to pay $1,268,302 in restitution, serve two years of supervised release, and complete 100 hours of community service.

Between April 2020 and November 2021, Agnello fraudulently applied for at least three Economic Injury Disaster Loans through his Jamaica, Queens-based business, Crown Auto Parts & Recycling, LLC, submitting false information about employee headcount and intended use of funds, according to the statement.

The SBA’s Office of Inspector General has estimated that more than $200 billion in potentially fraudulent loans were disbursed through COVID relief programs, with around $136 billion tied to EIDL alone.

Crypto’s open door

Experts told Decrypt that Agnello’s case reflects a structural vulnerability baked into emergency relief design.

“The government prioritized speed, relaxed controls, and created what investigators have described as a kind of pay-now-chase-later environment,” cybercrime consultant David Sehyeon Baek said. “Money was pushed out fast, and serious verification often came much later.”

Isabella Chase, Head of Policy, EMEA at TRM Labs, called pandemic programs “among the most significant fraud vectors we have observed in recent years.”

Both experts pointed to how weak verification enabled the crypto pivot.

“The combination of unprecedented speed of disbursement, relaxed verification requirements, and the rapid maturation of crypto markets created a near-perfect storm,” Chase told Decrypt.

Last month, federal prosecutors charged Los Angeles rideshare driver Bruce Choi with wire fraud and money laundering after he allegedly obtained more than $2 million in COVID loans for a fictional company called Premier Republic and wired the proceeds to crypto exchange Kraken.

In October, a rural English glazier was sentenced to 22 months after securing two COVID Bounce Back loans and directing a portion toward crypto investments and gambling, when only one loan was permitted.

Agnello’s family background

Agnello’s grandfather, John Gotti, rose to lead the Gambino crime family in the 1980s, becoming one of the most notorious mob bosses in American history before his 1992 conviction on murder and racketeering charges.

Baek said that while Agnello’s family background naturally raises questions, the public record gives little to work with.

“The DOJ appears to have treated it as a fairly straightforward wire-fraud case,” he said. “In a district like the Eastern District of New York, which has a long history of handling Gambino-related prosecutions, that kind of omission usually tells you something.”

There were no RICO allegations, no money laundering charges, and no public suggestion of broader organized crime involvement, a significant absence, Baek noted, given the Eastern District’s institutional familiarity with Gambino prosecutions.

Agnello’s attorney, Jeffrey Lichtman, told the court his client suffered from a gambling addiction and pointed to an unusual upbringing, including the reality show “Growing Up Gotti,” as contributing factors, according to an NBC New York report.

Such defenses are rare in practice, with fraud cases involving crypto more often showing “deliberate, methodical behaviour,” including structured transactions, layering across wallets, and efforts to obscure the origin of funds, Chase said.