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Claim:

The reason for high U.S. gas prices in 2026 wasn’t the Iran war but instead California Gov. Gavin Newsom forcing four California refineries to close.

Rating:

What’s True

Two California refineries, not four, recently shut down, including Phillips 66’s Los Angeles Refinery in October 2025 and Valero’s Benicia refinery in April 2026. Valero’s leadership cited state regulations as part of the reason the company closed its plant in the Bay Area. Also, California gas prices rose nearly 40 cents per gallon between January and February — prior to the start of the Iran war — with some analysts blaming Newsom’s administration. However …

What’s False

… no evidence suggests Newsom’s actions forced the closure of the refineries. Professionals knowledgable in fuel industry matters have repeatedly cited the Iran war, as well as the resulting closures of Middle East shipping routes, as the primary factors causing higher nationwide gas prices in 2026. Data shows nationwide fuel prices dramatically rose in the weeks immediately following the beginning of the Iran war in late February and early March, just as prices similarly rose in the weeks after Russia — a major oil supplier — invaded Ukraine in late February 2022. Oil companies that closed refineries in California cited reasons including high costs and low earnings for the decisions.

In September 2026, people shared social media posts claiming the reason for high U.S. gas prices wasn’t the Iran war but instead the alleged “forced” closures of “4 oil refineries” due, supposedly, to actions taken by Gov. Gavin Newsom.

For example, on Sept. 17, Timothy Wilcox, who reportedly ran in the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial race as a Republican, posted (archived) on Facebook, “The price of gas is caused by California forcing the shut down of 4 oil refineries, not Iran war. The blame lies with Newsom.” Others shared the claim on Facebook and X.

Snopes received a handful of reader emails asking if it was true that Newsom’s administration, not the Iran war, was largely to blame for the rise in nationwide gas prices. One person emailed, “I’m hearing Gavin Newsom closed oil refineries in CA which is the reason gas is so expensive rather than trumps war in iran. Why honestly are gas prices so high right now?”

In sum, a deep study of this matter found the rumor was mostly false.

Two California refineries, not four, shut down in the past 12 months, representing a 17% loss in the state’s refining capacity and less than 2% loss in national capacity. Phillips 66’s leadership named high production costs and “very low” earnings as the reasons its Los Angeles refinery closed in Carson and Wilmington in October 2025. A company spokesperson reportedly said one of Newsom’s regulatory bill signings wasn’t a factor in Phillips 66’s decision. Meanwhile, the leadership of Valero cited both state regulations and high maintenance costs as reasons for its April 2026 Benicia plant closure in the Bay Area.

Professionals knowledgable in energy sector matters, for example the GasBuddy petroleum analysis company, the Institute for Energy Research nonprofit organization and other analysts, have cited the Iran war, as well as the resulting closures of Middle East shipping routes, as the primary factor underlying higher U.S. gas prices in 2026.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration website hosts week-to-week historical data for gas and diesel prices, showing nationwide fuel prices dramatically rising in the weeks immediately following the beginning of the war in late February and early March, just as prices similarly rose in the weeks after Russia — a major oil supplier — invaded Ukraine in late February 2022.

The Institute for Energy Research also published an article specifically about California state gas prices. Citing what it labeled “Newsom’s radical environmental agenda,” the organization asserted that refinery closures stemmed from Newsom’s “detrimental” regulatory policies, the state’s increasing import needs, California reportedly having the highest state-level gas tax of all states, and other factors. The article also pointed out, accurately, that California’s average gas price rose by nearly 40 cents in the first two months of the year, prior to the start of the Iran war. (Regarding the claim central to this fact-check about nationwide gas prices, this data about California only pertains to one of the 50 U.S. states and none of the territories.)

Via Messenger, we asked Timothy Wilcox for evidence to support his claim. We also emailed representatives for GasBuddy, Newsom, the Oil Price Information Service, Phillips 66 and Valero. A Newsom spokesperson referred us to a spokesperson for the California Energy Commission, who shared some resources specifically about California’s own gas prices, as well as a comparison showing the state’s gas prices rising and falling along trend lines similar to national prices, although California prices were higher than other states. Correspondence from a GasBuddy analyst appears below, as does past investor earnings call information from Phillips 66 and Valero. We will update this article if we receive further details.

Correspondence with Wilcox

Regarding Wilcox’s Sept. 17 post, he responded to our request for evidence with a set of bullet points resembling a copied-and-pasted answer from an AI tool (for example Google’s “AI Overview”). The message said four California refineries — including the Bay Area’s Marathon facility in Martinez, the Phillips 66 location in Rodeo and Valero plant in Benicia, and the Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery in Carson and Wilmington — were closing or shutting down crude oil operations to concentrate on renewable fuel production.

However, Wilcox’s answer to Snopes contained data conflicting with his own claim. It called global crude oil prices and the Iran war a “major driver” of current U.S. price increases. It also provided information specifically about California’s own state gas prices, for example saying, “It’s too simplistic to say the refinery closures are the main reason California gas prices are rising.”

In later messages, Wilcox answered “no” to our question whether he used an AI tool to produce this information. We presented him with the above points, upon which he clarified he had used ChatGPT.

GasBuddy analysis

Patrick De Haan, who works for the petroleum analysis company GasBuddy, told us that only two California refineries — not four, as claimed — had ceased crude oil processing within the last year. Phillips 66 ceased operations at the Los Angeles refinery in October 2025, followed by Valero’s April 2026 shutdown of its Benicia refinery. (Newsom’s office issued a statement in January 2026 pledging his administration’s coordination with Valero to help maintain a stable fuel supply.)

De Haan contended that Phillips 66 and Valero executives made the decisions to end crude oil processing and that it wasn’t “some political decision” forcing the shutdown of operations:

Some of the reason refineries chose to close may have been due to growing number of requirements for operating a refinery in California, but that was a business decision by those refineries, not a policy change that forced them.

By and large the biggest impacts are the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. attacked Iran [and] Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries (heavily impacting record global diesel prices). California’s sales tax on diesel, for example, is collecting nearly 40c/gal more than this time a year ago, so that would also be a factor.

Claims addressed in past investor calls

Investor earnings calls from 2025 and 2026 provided more information about this subject, with executive leadership for Phillips 66 and Valero detailing reasons for the two site closures in Los Angeles and Benicia, as well as appearing to attribute rising fuel costs to the U.S. going to war with Iran.

During an April 24, 2025, earnings call, Lane Riggs, Valero’s CEO and president, fielded a question about the reason for the Benicia refinery closure. In his answer (20:33), Riggs cited California as “the most stringent and difficult of anywhere else in North America” in terms of the state’s regulatory and enforcement environment. He mentioned the fact that several refineries closed following the COVID-19 pandemic and also that the Benicia site “costs considerably more to maintain” versus another one of the company’s California plants.

Richard Harbison, Phillips 66’s executive vice president of refining, fielded a similar question during a Feb. 4, 2026, earnings call, regarding why the company chose to close the Los Angeles Refinery. Harbison cited the reason for the shutdown, saying, “One, the cost to produce was very high, and the materiality of the earnings was very low, if not negative, in a number of cases.”

Phillips 66 announced the Los Angeles Refinery closure plans on Oct. 16, 2024, just two days after Newsom signed a bill enacting new regulations reportedly in an effort to strengthen oil companies’ supply and protect consumer costs. According to S&P Global, Phillips 66 spokesperson Al Ortiz said the closure plans had nothing to do with the new law, saying, “This decision is not related to the recent bill signing. We want to continue to be a trusted and deliberate partner with the state.” We emailed Ortiz with questions about the rumor and will update this article if we receive further word.

Regarding remarks about the Iran war, Mark Lashier, board chairman and chief executive officer for Phillips 66, began his comments on the company’s April 29, 2026, earnings call (archived) — the first call since the beginning of the Iran war — saying of fuel prices, “Geopolitical events in the Middle East drove unprecedented commodity price volatility during the quarter.” Seconds later, he added, “Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a significant amount of global refining and petrochemical capacity is down.” He then spoke highly of his company’s purported “high utilization” in supplying products to customers.

On April 30, Gary Simmons, Valero’s executive vice president and chief operating officer, specifically referenced during an earnings call (video at 15:35) the Iran war and closed straits, for example the Strait of Hormuz, saying that “the conflict in Iran has really created a market with demand significantly outpacing supply” — meaning higher prices for consumers. Three months later, during the July 30 earnings call, Simmons spoke again of the Middle East and said Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refining capacity were “beginning to have a significant impact on the market,” adding, “And I don’t see those slowing down.”

Other plants closed well before 2026 gas-price spike

As for the other two refinery sites Wilcox mentioned in his Facebook post, including Marathon’s Martinez plant and Phillips 66’s Rodeo location, both appear to have stopped processing crude oil prior to 2026.

According to NBC Bay Area, the Marathon refinery in Martinez stopped crude oil processing in April 2020 due to travel restrictions and a plummeting demand for fuel at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, a period marked by low gas prices. Later that August, Marathon announced plans to end the plant’s crude oil processing and begin renewable fuel production. Also in August 2020, Phillips 66 announced a plan to end crude oil processing at its Rodeo site and instead produce renewable fuel. Phillips 66 reportedly stopped processing crude oil at the facility in February 2024.

For further reading, we previously reported about the time former President Joe Biden falsely claimed the average gas price was over $5 per gallon when he took office in January 2021. 

Sources

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Claim:

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in September 2026 that he had prepared for the chance that U.S. President Donald Trump might order military action against Canada.

Rating:

Context

The New York Times paraphrased Carney, who said he had prepared during the past year for the “extreme tail risk” that Trump might order military action against Canada. Carney also noted that he had been in regular contact with Trump. We have reached out to Carney’s office to learn more.

In September 2026, a rumor spread online that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had said Canada was prepared for an invasion from the U.S. One X post (archived) making the claim read: 

Mark Carney told The New York Times in an interview on Wednesday that he studied the possibility of Donald Trump launching a military invasion of Canada, arguing that “it would be irresponsible not to” prepare for such a scenario.

While Carney did say that he had prepared over the past year for the “extreme tail risk” that Trump might order a military invasion of Canada, his remarks were partly paraphrased by The New York Times. He also noted that he had been in frequent contact with Trump. Therefore we rate this claim as true with additional context.

Snopes reached out to Carney’s office to determine his exact words and will update this report if we receive a response.

On Sept. 23, 2026, Carney spoke to The New York Times. According to the report: 

Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada said that he had prepared over the past year for the “extreme tail risk” that President Trump might order military action against Canada, but disclosed that the two men have spoken “frequently,” even since trade talks collapsed last month, describing a tense, evolving relationship.

The Times asked Carney about whether he took Trump’s repeated threats to annex Canada and make it the 51st U.S. state seriously. Carney, while declining to comment on details, said, “I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk.” The Times then paraphrased part of his next statement:

“That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare.

Carney also said about his communication with Trump:

From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues … He’s direct. I’m direct in terms of where positions are. It’s much more efficient that way, and so you know that exists and that will continue to exist.

For further reading, Snopes has covered numerous rumors about Carney. 

Sources