The first meeting between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers came back in 1921, when the Bears were the Chicago Staleys. And somehow, the teams have met only twice in the playoffs.
In 1941, the Bears beat the Packers 33-14 in a matchup between Curly Lambeau and George Halas at Wrigley Field. The only other matchup came in the NFC championship game at the end of the 2010 season, and Green Bay won, 21-14.
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Their postseason paths have only crossed twice in more than 100 years, but we finally get a tie-breaking game in the series on Saturday night.
The Packers and Bears had two highly entertaining games already this season. The Packers won the first game when a fourth-down pass by Caleb Williams was picked off in the final seconds. The Packers were ahead for most of the second meeting, but a huge Chicago rally late in the fourth quarter, including a rare successful onside kick, led to the Bears’ overtime win.
The Bears should feel like they could have won the first meeting. The Packers should feel like they got unlucky to lose the second meeting. That is the lead-in to a great Saturday night matchup in wild-card weekend.
The Packers are getting a bit healthier. They rested starters in Week 18, as they had nothing to play for. Jordan Love will be back, and Josh Jacobs will be rested after dealing with injuries for most of the second half of the season. The Bears played their starters — “Some teams, they rest their starters. We don’t. We play football,” Bears coach Ben Johnson said after Week 18 — but it didn’t go as planned. The Bears struggled for three quarters, then lost to the Lions after a fourth-quarter rally. That wasn’t great for momentum, especially after also losing in Week 17.
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Extra rest, along with the memory of the Packers outplaying the Bears for about 58 minutes in Week 16, is the reason Green Bay is the pick as a 1-point favorite for Saturday night’s game. Chicago played better as the season went on, but the last three weeks weren’t fantastic. The Bears would have gone 0-3 going into the playoffs had they not recovered an onside kick against the Packers. The Packers haven’t been great either, losing four in a row, but that counts the fluky Week 16 loss and resting starters in Week 18. If the Packers play like they did in their last trip to Soldier Field, they’ll win. As long as they don’t flub another onside kick recovery.
DJ Moore of the Chicago Bears catches a game-winning touchdown pass against Keisean Nixon in overtime of a Week 16 meeting. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
(Michael Reaves via Getty Images)
Here are the rest of the picks for wild-card weekend of the NFL playoffs, with odds from BetMGM:
Panthers (+10.5) over Rams
The Rams are clearly the much superior team. But for all the talk lately of strength of schedule (and the MVP agendas that go with it), it’s hard to blow out another NFL team. Especially on the road. In the playoffs.
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We’ve previously seen four teams make the playoffs with losing records (the 1982 strike-shortened season excluded). Two won their wild-card playoff game straight up.
The Panthers have a -69 point differential, the fourth-worst in NFL history among playoff teams. Yet, the three teams worse than the Panthers all won on wild-card weekend.
And it’s at least worth noting that the Panthers beat the Rams 31-28 in Week 13. Nobody should assume three horrible turnovers by Matthew Stafford, as he had that game, but we know the Panthers are going to have plenty of confidence that they can compete. The opposite can be true too though: The Rams won’t be surprised by the Panthers after losing to them already.
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The Rams could blow out Carolina. It’s fair to rank the Rams as the best team in the playoff field and the Panthers as the worst. There’s a reason the Rams are the biggest road favorites in playoff history during the Super Bowl era (via Yahoo Sports’ Ben Fawkes). But the NFL is often not as easy as it seems, especially with a double-digit spread involved.
Jaguars (+1) over Bills
According to DVOA, the Jaguars were the better team than the Bills. In point differential, the Jaguars were the better team than the Bills. In overall record, the Jaguars were the better team than the Bills. The Jaguars also played a much tougher schedule, since that seems to matter to a lot of people lately.
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That’s not all to say the Jaguars are clearly better (in stats like net yards per play and EPA/play the Bills rank better) but this line seems like a public perception special. The Bills have Josh Allen, and people love to overemphasize quarterbacks. The Jaguars play in a small market and are often overlooked. The Bills have far more recent history of success. They’re the more comfortable pick than Jacksonville, which came out of nowhere to win the AFC South at 13-4.
Don’t underestimate the Jaguars though. Allen is clearly capable of carrying Buffalo to a win, but Trevor Lawrence has been pretty good in the second half of the season too. The Jaguars look like a well-coached team and their eight-game winning streak isn’t fluky. It’s not surprising the Bills are favored. But maybe the Jaguars should be.
Eagles (-4.5) over 49ers
The 49ers’ Week 18 loss was illuminating. Mostly, it reinforced how impressive it was that Kyle Shanahan got his team to 12 wins before that game.
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The 49ers’ injury list throughout the season is a collection of Pro Bowlers, All-Pros and even potentially some future Hall of Famers. Seattle beating the 49ers as they did shouldn’t be too surprising; it should be surprising the 49ers were playing for the No. 1 seed in the first place.
The defense is a problem, and it won’t get better with linebacker Tatum Bethune out for the rest of the season due to injury. If you like the 49ers, it’s because they have the offense that can score enough to keep them in the game and maybe pull off the upset. But that’s not easy against an Eagles defense that is again one of the NFL’s best this season. It’s hard to back Philadelphia’s offense, which can disappear for entire games at a time, but the 49ers’ tank might be on empty.
Chargers (+3.5) over Patriots
We’re only in Year 6 of the 14-team playoff era, but you can make the argument the Chargers are the best No. 7 seed we’ve seen.
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The Chargers went 11-5 before sitting starters in Week 18, and still almost beat a Broncos team playing for the No. 1 seed. Everything about the Chargers — coaching, QB play, defense, skill-position players — is really good. We know the weakness, and that’s the offensive line. The Patriots don’t have a great pass rush, finishing 19th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric, which helps Los Angeles.
As much as strength-of-schedule debates have been overdone lately, it is fair to point out the Patriots did beat just one team that finished with a .500 record. They played a stunningly easy schedule, the third-easiest in the history of DVOA, which dates back to 1978. That doesn’t erase the Patriots’ accomplishments or disqualify Drake Maye from winning MVP. But it’s worth mentioning.
The Patriots probably should win. But the Chargers are a pretty good team to lay more than a field goal against.
Texans (-3) over Steelers
In Week 17, with a chance to clinch a division title, the Steelers didn’t score a touchdown against the Browns. That game was on the road, and DK Metcalf will be back from a two-game suspension, but how many points is it reasonable to project for the Steelers against a tougher defense than Cleveland?
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Houston’s defense is excellent. It finished second in points allowed and first in yardage allowed. The offense isn’t great, but neither is Pittsburgh’s defense.
The Steelers got to 10 wins and won the AFC South, which is a nice accomplishment. But this wasn’t a great team for much of the season. The Texans were a very good team in the second half, winning an NFL-best nine in a row. As long as the Texans offense doesn’t pull a no-show (which is possible), the Texans should win this one.
Last week: 7-9
Regular season: 134-131-7
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