The NFL’s final four takes place in Denver and Seattle this weekend. The Patriots and Broncos kick us off with the first conference championship game before the Rams and Seahawks bring us home Sunday evening for their third matchup this season. Let’s look at the four key components in these two games, one on each side of the ball, and how they could sway who moves on to the Bay Area for the Super Bowl.
Patriots at Broncos
Key matchup when Broncos have ball: Pick at the Patriots on the ground and survive the blitzing
This section has to acknowledge the Jarrett Stidham-shaped elephant in the room. Bo Nix suffered an ankle injury at the end of the Broncos’ divisional round win and Stidham will be starting his first game since the end of the 2023 season. I’m not ready to make a bold proclamation about Stidham, but he had some strong stretches in the preseason for Denver. He’s prone to some trick shots as a thrower, too, which could lead to some highlights for both sides in this game.
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J.K. Dobbins has been ruled out for the game despite returning to practice this week. Even so, the run game has been efficient this season, especially in the back half of the season. And while the Patriots’ defense has improved (more on that in a moment), New England is still susceptible to getting peppered on the ground, ranking 28th in yards before contact, 18th in rushing success rate allowed and 13th in EPA against the run since Week 10 (including playoffs), as well as being one of the league’s worst fronts at stopping the run on late downs. (The return of defensive tackle Milton Williams for the playoff charge does provide a ton of help.)
New England’s defense has been significantly better against the pass over the back half of the season and especially since its Week 14 bye week, ranking first in net yards per attempt (4.9), third in EPA against the pass and ninth in dropback success rate from Week 15 on. Now, the Patriots haven’t gone against a murderer’s row of quarterbacks and passing games; they’ve faced Josh Allen, a large chunk of Tyler Huntley, Jets and Dolphins rookies, and then Justin Herbert with a battered offensive line and C.J. Stroud without several key starters on offense. But the Patriots have tweaked their defensive attack over the latter portion of the season, especially after that aforementioned bye week. Namely, the Patriots started blitzing more, especially on late downs.
[Get more Broncos news: Denver team feed]
Since Week 10, the Patriots rank second in blitz rate on third and fourth down. Since Week 15, they rank first, blitzing on over 40% of late downs the last dozen games, a Todd Bowles-ian number. Their Cover 0 (a form of all-out pressure with no deep safeties) rate has more than doubled since the first half of the season. And it’s not just empty forays at the quarterback, either. Since Week 10, the Patriots have allowed just 3.2 net yards per attempt when they blitz on third and fourth downs. They allowed a success rate of 27.7%, which ranks second over that time period. They allowed the lowest rate of explosive plays and third in EPA per pass.
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The blitzing? It’s working.
While the Broncos have been good against the blitz this season, there has been some noticeable dropoff after center Luke Wattenberg went down with an injury (he returned to practice this week), and while Stidham can make throws off-platform, one of Nix’s strengths is avoiding sacks. Head coach Sean Payton will almost certainly move the pocket repeatedly for Stidham, but the flow of the offense might become more boom-and-bust when the Broncos are throwing against this blitz-happy Patriots defense. I’m curious if Payton will have Stidham stand and deliver, especially if Wattenberg ends up not being able to play.
Key matchup when Patriots have ball: Mitigating bad plays and answering questions Broncos’ defense poses
When New England has the ball, it’s really going to come down to mitigating any bad plays that can keep Denver in the game with its backup quarterback. The Broncos’ defense is still good and disruptive, but it has taken a small step back in the second half of the season. The Patriots’ offense has improved the run game to something that’s around league-average, and their at-you runs should have some success, but it’s an offense that’s driven by its quarterback, Drake Maye. He had some highs against Houston last weekend, but also had a bundle of fumbles while dealing with the Texans’ nitro-fueled pass rush.
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Do the Patriots provide Will Campbell more chip help? Nik Bonitto is another tough matchup for the rookie left tackle, but not getting every eligible receiver out on a route right away could help the Broncos’ defenders flood passing lanes as they sink into coverage while the Patriots’ running back or tight end is occupied with helping a tackle in protection. Maye typically focuses on wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Pop Douglas against man coverage, especially on late downs, with Diggs sometimes aligning in the slot.
[Get more Patriots news: New England team feed]
Do the Broncos travel Pat Surtain II with Diggs if he aligns anywhere but the outside? Do they just trust their strong cornerback room against the Patriots’ group of pass-catchers? Ja’Quan McMillian is the “weakest” of the Broncos’ cornerbacks, but he is still a good player in his own right. (His game-changing interception against Josh Allen and Brandin Cooks can be proof of that.) Do the Patriots watch the Bills film and try to beat McMillian vertically with Douglas? The Broncos are a bit weaker against TE targets, ranking 18th in DVOA, per FTN. So Hunter Henry could be in line for some steady work over the middle of the field this game, too.
This side of the ball is going to be a lot of fun. The Broncos’ defense will surely be able to pick at the Patriots’ protection and create some losses in the run game. And Maye’s aggressive style is a great way to combat such a tenacious defense. Expect big plays for both units.
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Rams at Seahawks
Key matchup when the Seahawks have the ball: Negate pass-blocking weaknesses Rams will press and keep Sam Darnold at normal speed
Weirdly enough, my attention first goes to the loss of running back Zach Charbonnet for the Seahawks. Not so much Charbonnet’s running ability, but more his proficiency in pass protection. Kenneth Walker III is an exciting and explosive RB, but one of his weaknesses is in pass protection (that showed up last weekend in a one-sided victory vs. the 49ers).
The Rams’ defense has a few ways of getting after the quarterback under coordinator Chris Shula. At times they will align five defenders across the offensive line and have them slant and twist to create edginess in the pocket (ranking second in pressure rate since Week 10, but just 25th in sack rate) and pick at a weakness on the line (which would be right guard for the Seahawks) until that weakness pops. Other times, they will send creeper and simulated pressures (which is rushing four defenders, including an non-traditional pass rusher like an off-ball linebacker or defensive back, and playing seven in coverage) to test the offense’s protection rules while playing coverage behind it.
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Backup running back George Holani has started practicing again for the Seahawks, but perhaps the Rams attempt to poke at Walker and the offensive line throughout the game and attempt to pressure and speed up Sam Darnold’s decision-making. Darnold turned the ball over at one of the highest rates under pressure this season, and his EPA goes from top eight to bottom eight (while his success rate actually stayed strong under pressure, funnily enough). The Seahawks’ run game has improved over the course of the season, with Walker providing a dangerous big-play element to it despite passing up the easy yards too frequently. How that plays against a Rams run defense that is good but gettable will be interesting.
All of that movement and aggression leaves the Rams open to big plays when the quarterback can get rid of the ball or escape the pocket. They’ve allowed the fifth-most EPA to quarterback scrambles since Week 10, and while Darnold has toned down his running this season, he is still a plus athlete who can make plays with his legs or out of structure.
Key when the Rams have the ball: Connect on big punches in the passing game, especially when Puka Nacua finds holes in the Seahawks’ coverage
On the other side of the ball, it’s two elite units going at it. Matthew Stafford is almost certainly this season’s MVP and features a bevy of tight ends and a couple of high-end wide receivers. Oh, and they have one of the most efficient run games of the millennium to boot.
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The Seahawks’ defense is also starting to get talked about like one of the top units of this millennium, featuring top-notch game plans from head coach Mike Macdonald, a variety pack of impact defensive linemen who are essentially all archetypes for their positions, and a troupe of defensive backs with the speed, length and IQ to move like a hivemind in coverage, but also the tenacity to saw off pass catchers on anything under 5 yards.
[Get more Rams news: Los Angeles team feed]
Seattle blitzed at a season-high rate in the first matchup between these two teams, but slowed things down and ran just about everything (the trademark of Macdonald’s kaleidoscopic scheme) in their second. Puka Nacua went ballistic in that second game, and combined for 300 yards over the two games. He had receptions of 54, 58, 41, and 27 yards in that second game, with in-breaking dig routes doing the most damage.
The Seahawks will attempt to get as many of their talented defensive backs as possible on the field. They can wipe away passing games with their length on the outside and the twitchiness and awareness of Devon Witherspoon and pure size of Nick Emmanwori in the slot. They’ll sit in two-high coverage shells and attempt quarterbacks to attack the areas that should be the weaknesses of the coverage (i.e. the “hook” area in the seams between the hash and numbers), only to see a defender standing in front of the route and feeling the pocket starting to collapse against the Seahawks’ monster-filled pass rush. The Rams mitigated this by attacking on early downs, running play action and having route combinations like “Dagger” (a vertical route by an inside player and a deep in-breaking dig route behind it) attack the voided area that linebackers, and not the slot players, are supposed to attempt to cover.
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Stafford worked Nacua on these dig routes time and again in Week 16. But he has also hit Davante Adams on these same routes and concepts throughout the season (mainly before his hamstring injury, the same one that forced him to miss that meeting).
The Seahawks’ run defense and Rams’ run offenses are both excellent and represent the epitome of a modern top-end unit, with the Seahawks stopping the run with light boxes and Rams running several top-end concepts and being efficient out of multiple personnel groupings, respectively. Head coach Sean McVay will surely have some fun tweaks for this game with several games and a whole season of datapoints to go through, but so will Macdonald. Both teams will be throwing haymakers on this side, and I think it will come down to how well the Rams are able to connect on those big punches in the passing game.
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