Next steps in maturation await Spurs after run to NBA Finals

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You never get a second chance to arrive ahead of schedule. It’s kind of like that “first impression” stuff, because after Year 1, the expectations change. From this point forward, the San Antonio Spurs will be right on schedule, unless they somehow fall behind schedule.

And that would be a long time from now.

As disappointing as the Spurs’ results were in the 2026 NBA Finals, their postseason run overall and their 2025-26 regular season qualified as ahead of schedule. No one doubted that San Antonio was going to be good, but few anticipated they’d be this good this soon.

“We’ve been blood, sweat and tears for nine months basically,” coach Mitch Johnson said after his team’s 94-90 loss to New York in Game 5 of the NBA Finals that eliminated San Antonio, 4-1.

“It’s over. So there will be plenty of time for reflection. But yeah, on the surface, I don’t think anybody other than the people in that room expected us to be here. So there’s a lot of good in that. There’s a lot of pain in what just happened. Both things can be true.”

When the season began in October, the Spurs were fresh off a 34-48 season, good enough only for 13th place in the Western Conference. It was a step in the right direction from their 22-60 marks in Years 1 and 2 of the new A.V. timeline – “After Victor” – begun when they landed the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft and selected 7-foot-4 French center Victor Wembanyama.

That was the first in a three-year run of top draft picks, made possible in part by Wembanyama’s injuries and, at the start of last season, Gregg Popovich stepping down over a debilitating health crisis. San Antonio used the No. 4 pick in 2024 on guard Stephon Castle, then the Nos. 2 and 11 picks last June on guard Dylan Harper and forward Carter Bryant.

The talent made improvement almost inevitable. With Johnson at the helm (the assistant got elevated to Popovich’s chair early in 2024-25), the Spurs shot to 62-20 this season, becoming only the fourth team in league history to jump from fewer than 35 victories to more than 60.

They started hot, then got scorching later: After winning in Oklahoma City on Christmas, the Spurs were 23-7, the fourth-best start through 30 games in franchise history. Still, at 32-16 by the end of January, they were closer to eighth place in the West (by three games) than first (5 1/2 behind OKC).

The month of February accelerated everything. The Spurs swept the month. They went 11-0, with a run of eight consecutive victories by 10+ points. They took one loss to start March, then won 16 of 17, with another 11-game winning streak mixed in. At no point all season did San Antonio lose more than two games in a row. Its record from Feb. 1: 30-4.

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Spurs grow up fast in playoffs

Any thought that this might be a baby-step season of development – SoFi Play-In Tournament berth, anyone? – perished in that flurry of success. The Spurs improved across the board analytically, year over year – from 19th to third in offensive rating, 25th to third defensively and 22nd to third in net rating – and grabbed the No. 2 seed in the West.

Before their time? Definitely. One lineup that Johnson started in the playoffs averaged just 22.4 years old, the youngest in conference finals history (Wembanyama, Castle, Harper, Julian Champagnie and Devin Vassell). And yet the Spurs stormed through Portland, outplayed Minnesota and eliminated the defending champion Thunder on their precocious march to the Finals.

Wembanyama became the first player to reach the championship round in his first playoffs and his first as a first-team All-NBA player since legend Elgin Baylor in 1959.

San Antonio bumped off the Trail Blazers despite Wembanyama suffering a concussion and missing nearly two full games. The Spurs outscored the Timberwolves by 97 points in that six-game series. They upset OKC in double overtime in Game 1, then dug out of a 3-2 hole by taking Games 6 and 7.

This was starting to feel a lot like the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers. Seven seasons into their existence, they were another young group that reached the Finals in their first taste of the postseason, led by a marvelously talented big man (Bill Walton). It even felt that way after San Antonio dropped the first two games against New York (those ’77 Blazers fell behind Philadelphia 2-0 before roaring back to win the next four).

Any similarity, alas, ended after Game 3, a 115-111 San Antonio victory. Having already lost leads of 14 and 12 points in the first two games, the Spurs squandered a 29-point advantage over the final 21:27 in Game 4 — a historic comeback in Finals lore.

Some spirits were broken, the pattern was established, and sure enough, Game 5 tracked similarly. San Antonio led early by 16 points and it meant nothing, given New York’s habit – as described sardonically by Finals MVP Jalen Brunson from the trophy-presenting stage – of showing up at 9 p.m. for 8:30 p.m. games.

San Antonio’s preparation and enthusiasm were undeniable in the way it outscored New York by a combined 57 points in the first quarters in the five games. Its inexperience, poor decision-making and inability to close games were evident the rest of the time: the Knicks were 29 points better in the second quarters, 14 better in the thirds and 26 better in the fourths.

“The simple consistencies, we didn’t deserve to win the games,” Johnson said. “There’s a lot of … execution. There can be rebounding. There can be end-of-game details. NBA games are long, it happens during the regular season, too, [but] everything is much more on stage during the Finals when everybody’s watching.

“We weren’t ready to win an NBA championship.”

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Title window opens in San Antonio

As Wembanyama went, so went his team. The Spurs held the lead in the Finals for approximately 72% of the minutes played. Well, their center put up some solid overall stats – 26 ppg, 11.2 rpg, 3.6 blocks per game – but appeared to wear down later in games.

He shot poorly at 42.3% overall and 27.2% on 3-pointers, but his dip got worse in the fourth quarters: 34.3% and 25%. The big fellow in need of a better low-post game scored just five points after the third quarter in Game 4 and three from that point in Game 5. His plus/minus count in the Finals’ five fourth quarters: minus-20.

Framed against his 29.2 minutes per game during the regular season, Wembanyama’s jump to 39.8 in the Finals – his 82nd through 86th appearances since October – proved to be too much. His achievements over that stretch were terrific: unanimous Kia Defensive Player of the Year, All-NBA First Team, third season leading the league in blocks, third-place finish in Kia MVP voting. But they all came when he was fresher, earlier in the longest season of Wembanyama’s career.

His Finals got defined as much by lowlights as highlights. Dribbling off his foot with 50 seconds left in Game 1, during the Knicks’ 11-0 run to close. That regrettable pass off Castle’s back at the end of Game 2 and subsequent foul of Brunson. Missing 13 of his final 17 shots in Game 4 and clanging two foul shots with 1:40 left as New York completed its breathtaking comeback. Shooting 1-of-5 in the final quarter in Game 5 and getting bullied by New York’s Mitchell Robinson for a huge offensive rebound near the end.

In no way was Wembanyama alone. De’Aaron Fox, the veteran point guard being counted on for his savviness and court wisdom, also proved unreliable. Fox had a video reel worth of miscues, a bad lapse in judgment when he went for a layup that got blocked rather than dribble off clock late in Game 4, and his 3-of-15 scattershooting Saturday.

Johnson heard a bushel of second-guesses too. Failing to call timeouts at pivotal moments to perhaps calm down his young crew. Leaving OG Anunoby unguarded as the inbounder on Game 4’s climactic play, a possession that generally had the Spurs confused in their defensive assignments.

And sticking with Fox for longer minutes in the elimination game than rookie Dylan Harper. Harper wasn’t immune – he missed a layup to tie and then a pair of free throws, all in the last 30 seconds. But the Spurs did outscore New York by 5.4 points per 100 possessions with Harper in the games. When he sat, they were 8.0 net points worse.

“Obviously, we weren’t ready. I wasn’t ready to win a ring,” Wembanyama said. “In terms of desire to do well, intensity and effort, we were at a good level. But experience … it’s mistakes. We don’t lack talent, we don’t lack ability, we just make too many mistakes. And I make too many mistakes.”

Said Vassell: “These games in the Finals, it just shows that every possession matters and every little detail matters. You can mess up some stuff in the regular season and still kind of get away with it. Obviously, in the Finals, with everything being amplified, one mistake can cost you a game. I think we had a couple that cost us multiple.”

There’s an old saying in college hoops (well, there was before one-and-done got so prevalent) that the best thing about freshman is they become sophomores. The same holds here: Playoff newbies become postseason veterans. There isn’t a member of the Spurs team who can’t and won’t learn valuable lessons from what they just went through.

Wembanyama is renowned for laboring as hard on his game and his mental approach each summer as he does during the season. And Johnson is still just 39 – it would be silly to think he’s not going to get better on the sideline.

Oklahoma City, by getting bounced by San Antonio from the West finals, has been activated to change that ending next spring (better health would be the obvious start). The Nuggets, Lakers, Rockets, Timberwolves and maybe two or three others will try to thwart the Spurs’ return to the Finals in 2027.

The Spurs opened their window of championship contention early. Given their young and skilled core, led by the NBA’s most unique player, it will be open for a while.

It’s up to them now to stay on schedule.

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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.