Can Anthony Edwards and the Wolves push Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs off their playoff course in the semifinals?
The San Antonio Spurs might have anticipated a semifinal showdown with Denver, which finished one spot behind them in the West seedings. But Minnesota’s upset of the Nuggets out of the sixth seed scuttled that prospect, while introducing a new dynamic to Round 2. The NBA would be salivating over the marketing dream of Victor Wembanyama vs. Anthony Edwards, two of the league’s brightest young stars, locked in battle for four to seven games … if Edwards were available. He’ll start the series on the injury list (L knee hyperextension/bone bruise), so one of the storylines in this one will be whether the Timberwolves’ scoring star can recover and join the fray.
Series schedule
Here’s how to watch the Spurs vs. Timberwolves series:
All times Eastern Standard Time
- Game 1: Minnesota at San Antonio (TBD)
- Game 2: Minnesota at San Antonio (TBD)
- Game 3: San Antonio at Minnesota (TBD)
- Game 4: San Antonio at Minnesota (TBD)
- Game 5: Minnesota at San Antonio (TBD)*
- Game 6: San Antonio at Minnesota (TBD)*
- Game 7: Minnesota at San Antonio (TBD)*
* = If necessary
Top storyline
New kids eager to unseat veterans. The last time San Antonio reached the playoffs was 2019, when Gregg Popovich was still on their sideline, current coach Mitch Johnson was working with the NBA G League team in Austin and Wembanyama was a gangly 15-year-old six months away from his first pro experience with Nanterre 92 in the Euro Cup League. Now that the Spurs are here, though, they aren’t interested in taking baby steps. They at least want what the Wolves have had: consecutive trips to the Western Conference Finals, the only NBA team to reach that round in 2024 and ’25.
No one can blame Minnesota, then, if its players and coaches feel a little turfy as this series begins. They want to take the next logical step to the NBA Finals, so they aren’t inclined to concede a thing. The Wolves aren’t an old team, but their experience is one edge they’ll try to flex in this series. That includes coach Chris Finch, who found the lineups and exploited the matchups necessary to oust Denver in the last round despite a shorthanded roster.
Keep your eyes on
Victor Wembanyama vs. Rudy Gobert. Parallels abound in this series, with both teams boasting excellent perimeter defenders (San Antonio’s Stephon Castle and Minnesota’s Jaden McDaniels), respected old heads (De’Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes vs. Mike Conley and Julius Randle) and past or present Kia Sixth Man winners (Keldon Johnson and Naz Reid). The showdown at center, however, is the sizzle. Gobert, 33, was a role model and mentor in France for Wembanyama, 22, and a four-time Kia Defensive Player of the Year who has just seen his Spurs counterpart win his first DPOY. The 7-foot-1 Gobert just wrapped an inspired series against the league’s best offensive center, Nikola Jokić. Now he’ll have to contend with its best all-around center, who happens to have three or four inches on him. Gobert’s mobility is good, allowing him to track Wembanyama wherever he goes in the halfcourt. But the younger fellow is a gazelle by comparison when the pace dials up.
One more thing to watch for each team
For San Antonio: Wembanyama’s on/off impact. Whether dictated by the big guy’s stamina or by management’s desire to protect him from injury, Wembanyama’s playing time is closely monitored. When he plays, he averages fewer than 30 minutes. Mix in injuries and he is on the court less than half the time (1,866 of the team’s 3,946 minutes in the regular season, 112 of 240 against first-round foe Portland). How do the Spurs fare when he’s sitting? They’re about 10 points worse per 100 possessions, almost all of it coming from the defensive end. The Wolves need to maximize their scoring when Wemby isn’t on the floor to alter, contest or swat their shots.
For Minnesota: Edwards’ injury status. The latest timeline for the brash shooting guard’s return was deemed “week to week.” Once this series begins Monday at Frost Bank Center, the games come rapidly, at an every-other-day clip through the first five. Assuming there’s still unfinished business at that point, Game 6 is scheduled for May 15, with Game 7 two days beyond that. The four-time All-Star was a force in the three meetings this season, averaging 36.7 points and nailing 51.9% of his 3-pointers.
One key number to know
13.0 — In beating the Nuggets, the Timberwolves held what was the league’s No. 1 offense to just 108.2 points per 100 possessions, 13.0 fewer than Denver scored in the regular season. It was the Nuggets’ worst six-game stretch of offense all year, even with Jokić having missed 16 straight in December and January.
The Wolves ranked eighth defensively in the regular season, making it their worst of the last three. But they turned the defense up in the first round and shut down the league’s best offense to advance for the third straight postseason.
The Wolves allowed 116 points per 100 possessions in their three regular-season games against San Antonio, which was the 10th-best defensive mark against the Spurs. But that broke down to an outrageous 133.9 per 100 in 58 minutes with Wembanyama on the floor and just 102.2 per 100 in 86 minutes with Wembanyama off it.
— John Schuhmann
The pick
Spurs in five. If Edwards were ready to go from the start, we might have a seven-game classic on our hands. But barring a key injury on the Spurs side (a.k.a. Wemby) as this plays out, it’s hard to imagine Minnesota having enough scoring to slow San Antonio’s roll. Certainly, its dominance in the paint against Denver will need to be reconfigured with Wembanyama guarding the rim. Backup 7-footer Luke Kornet is a solid Plan B when the big guy sits, a star in his role (double-double man per 36 minutes). And San Antonio’s backcourt rotation and overall depth provide Johnson with the flexibility to react or dictate styles as the case requires.
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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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