Meanwhile, the timing has drawn attention to LayerZero’s vesting schedule. On October 20 the protocol unlocked about 23.63 million $ZRO, roughly 5.9% of the circulating supply at the time, which were allocated to core contributors (10.63 million) and strategic partners (13 million). A similar unlock is expected on November 20, prompting speculation that future supply is negatively impacting the token.
Is LayerZero Facing Post-Unlock Selling or Fear of Future Supply?
The recent price drop has raised doubts about whether that drop is indicative of actual sales of the newly unlocked tokens, or simply traders pricing in the ongoing supply overhang from future token unlocks.
A release date does not necessarily mean that recipients sold. Vesting schedules only indicate when tokens can be transferred to specific wallets. Price behavior is consistent with both interpretations. $ZRO surged into the unlock window before rolling over, which could be a sign of profit takers, declining risk appetite ahead of the next monthly release, or minimal actual distribution.
In addition, LayerZero’s continuous buybacks driven by revenue from Stargate feature some counterbalancing demand, albeit at a lesser volume than the monthly unlocks. On lower-activity networks, like opBNB, plans to end DVN and Executor services by late November have added caution.
Without any clear exchange inflows tracked to the unlocked wallets, the more conservative interpretation is that the market is pricing in the supply to come, rather than having been influenced by the confirmed large-scale post-unlock selling. The November tranche will offer a next test to see if that overhang is still weighing on price.
What Do $ZRO Exchange Inflows and ICT Bearish Order Blocks Reveal About Further Downside?
There is no publicly available data that shows a healthy increase in the inflows of exchanges that directly received $ZRO in the October 20 unlock.
Meanwhile, 24-hour spot volume has been hovering at around $65–72 million, funding rates have been mildly positive, closer to 0.005 per eight hours, and open interest has been fluctuating without collapsing. These signals indicate momentum to trade and ongoing leveraged longs, but not a broad-based sell-off after unlocks.
From an ICT perspective, $ZRO’s lower highs and lower lows since mid-October indicate a bearish short-term structure. The $1.70 to $1.85 area is a potential bearish order block resistance and failed retest actions indicate that sellers are controlling the market. Support sits near $1.58–$1.60, with $1.70–$1.75 serving as the first key resistance zone.
Therefore, if the exchange inflows continue to rise from unlock-related wallets, it could strengthen the selling-pressure thesis. A sustained reclaim of $1.70-$1.75 will lessen the bearish tone. For now, price structure favors sellers, but the available evidence does not prove that unlock recipients are driving the decline ahead of the November 20 unlock.
Related: LayerZero Expands Into Exchange Infrastructure With ATLAS Launch
Related: LayerZero ($ZRO) Price Tests Critical Support as $47 Million Token Unlock Begins Today
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