Welcome to Week 16 of the fantasy football fades and busts of the week! I am your host, Matt Okada, and will be bringing you half a dozen players to avoid each and every week, through the most critical weeks of the year — the fantasy playoffs! Still looking for the perfect six-for-six, but we arguably hit on five last week, so the time is coming … let’s get it.
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As a note, just because a player earns a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean they should be benched — it depends on the rest of your roster or the options on your waiver wire. But you can expect them to fall short of expectations (when I get them right).
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Happy Holidays and, without further ado, here is my list for Week 16 of the 2025 season.
QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams has been excellent in theoretically softer matchups the last couple months, including a 37.7-point performance against the Bengals and 20+ points against both the Giants and Steelers. But against stingier defenses, things have been ugly, including 5.68 points against the Saints in Week 7, 12.80 against the Ravens in Week 8, 10.32 against the Vikings in Week 11 and 10.46 against the Eagles in Week 13. A decent showing against the Browns last week isn’t enough to earn our confidence against Green Bay this Saturday night, in what will likely be near-freezing temperatures at Soldier Field. Even without Micah Parsons, the Packers defense is extremely tough — Williams posted just 15.94 points against them two weeks ago, despite throwing 35 passes and multiple touchdowns. That feels like his ceiling this weekend … and his floor is somewhere in the single digits, especially with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III both ruled out with injuries.
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What to do ❓ Avoid starting Williams if you can help it … which you should be able to outside of 2QB leagues. You can turn to options like Jordan Love (in a better matchup on the same field), Justin Herbert (even with no offensive line), Jaxson Dart or even Trevor Lawrence against Denver.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets
It’s been an up-and-down season for Breece Hall, which isn’t all that surprising considering the combination of his talent with the disaster of an offense he plays in. The Jets have scored fewer than 15 points six times this year, and Hall has scored single digits in five of six while averaging just 6.8 points per game. Even more concerning is that Hall’s early-season volume in the passing game has dried up with changes at quarterback — he’s had just two catches on three targets over the last two weeks combined. And Brady Cook will be starting again Sunday against the Saints.
The New Orleans defense is better than average, and the Jets have an implied total of just 18 points — at this point starting Hall is a half-blind wish for a touchdown or a breakaway play. Considering he’s scored once in the last five weeks and averaged just 40 scrimmage yards over the last two, either would take a holiday miracle.
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What to do ❓ You’ll likely see Breece Hall somewhere in the bottom half of RB2 range in most rankings, but I don’t really know why. He was the RB44 two weeks ago and the RB47 last week — the two games Cook has played the majority of snaps at QB. For me, Hall is a low-end RB3 who should not be trusted except as a flex in deeper leagues.
RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
It’s been a month since Ashton Jeanty cracked this column, and naturally his only good game over that month was the one I featured him here (Week 12 against Cleveland). He pulled together 20.8 fantasy points against the Browns that Sunday thanks to eight catches for 58 yards and a touchdown — and that’s been nearly the only way he’s produced for fantasy since the Raiders’ Week 8 bye. However, that production has also dried up with Kenny Pickett at quarterback: Jeanty’s totaled just 15 receiving yards over his last two games combined and scored fewer than seven fantasy points in both as a result.
Even if Geno Smith is back this weekend against the Texans (which is tenuous at best), the matchup against Houston’s ravenous defense is absolutely awful. The game script will likely force Jeanty into a receiver-or-bust situation early, and even with a handful of catches, he feels unlikely to crack double digits.
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What to do ❓ As with Hall, Jeanty appears in the RB2 basement for most fantasy rankers … but he’s finished outside the top 30 in four of the last five weeks. At some point, this just becomes stubborn devotion to a wishful thought of a Jeanty that could have been. Also like Hall, I’m dropping Jeanty to low-end RB3 range, at best.
WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s honestly odd that Emeka Egbuka is eligible to crack this column, given how bad-to-middling he’s been for nearly three months now. But he remains heavily started and highly ranked, due in part to his torrid start to the season and in part to his consistent target volume. Stop it. The talented rookie has been on a completely different page from Baker Mayfield since Week 6, sporting a horrendous 41.8% catch rate and just 5.38 yards per target.
That means, even if he sees 10 targets in a game, he’s catching four balls for 54 yards on average. He’s scored fewer than nine fantasy points in eight of his last nine games and has been the WR37 over that span, behind receivers like Chimere Dike, Kayshon Boutte and Parker Washington. The matchup with the Panthers is mostly middle-of-the-road, but they have been tough on the deep ball. Oh, and Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are both back to further reduce Egbuka’s target share.
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What to do ❓ If you want to continue rolling Egbuka out there, on the optimistic belief that his 7-8 targets will finally produce another fantasy breakout this week, all power to you. But it feels like mining for fool’s gold at this point, and I’d consider Egbuka a borderline must-sit at the bottom (or outside) of WR3 range.
WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen Brian Thomas Jr. in this column, as we’d mostly agreed to stop starting him, before he missed three games in the middle of the year. Now, however, after back-to-back outings with double-digit fantasy points, he’s back on the radar. And I’m taking him right back off.
Yes, he took three catches for 87 yards two weeks ago, and then found the end zone last week. And yes, he’s looked a little better and has seen 13 total targets these past two games. But he gets Patrick Surtain II and the Broncos this Sunday. For context on this crew: no wide receiver has hit 13 fantasy points in regulation against Denver since Week 6 (Terry McLaurin did it in overtime in Week 13). Even with Trevor Lawrence’s recent hot streak, I trust Vance Joseph’s defense far more this weekend and will not be starting any Jacksonville wideout if I can help it.
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What to do ❓ Bench Brian Thomas Jr. unless your only other options have fantasy ceilings in the single digits. I would be truly shocked to see BTJ top 10+ fantasy points and completely unsurprised to see him score five or six instead.
TE Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts
Sigh. Heading into November, it felt like we had a firmly entrenched top-tier TE1 in rookie Tyler Warren. Then he faced two tough matchups in the Chiefs and Texans … and Daniel Jones tore his Achilles. As a result, Warren has averaged just 5.7 fantasy points per game over the past month, and has totaled just five catches for 34 yards the past two weeks with mostly Riley Leonard and Philip Rivers at quarterback.
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It’ll be Rivers again this Monday night against the 49ers … and let’s just say it didn’t look promising for the 44-year-old coming off the couch (and the Hall of Fame ballot) last Sunday. Warren caught just three of six targets for 19 yards from Rivers versus Seattle, and while the 49ers aren’t a tough matchup for tight ends, they’re certainly not softer than the Seahawks. He’s still a good bet for right around six targets, but the efficiency and the touchdown upside have plummeted for Warren, dragging him well out of “elite” range and possibly even out of “starter” range.
What to do ❓ If you haven’t snagged a solid streaming option, Warren might be your best bet in the penultimate week of fantasy. But if you can roll with Kyle Pitts, Harold Fannin Jr., Colby Parkinson, Dalton Schultz or Darren Waller instead … I’d recommend it.
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