The 12-team College Football Playoff is has one team already in the final (Miami) and two teams playing on Friday night for the right to face the Hurricanes.
The first semifinal game saw Miami (FL) hold on for a thrilling 31-27 win over Ole Miss, as Carson Beck ran in a touchdown with 18 seconds remaining only to see Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss lead Ole Miss past midfield and a final Hail Mary throw fall incomplete.
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Our college football handicapping duo of Corbie Craig and Ed Feng provide a best bet on tonight’s Indiana-Oregon matchup.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. This file will be updated.
Craig: Off impressive wins, Indiana–Oregon is being billed as a heavyweight matchup, but a deeper look shows a clear flaw on the Ducks’ side: field position.
Oregon consistently strung together long drives, yet rarely flipped them into real scoring chances. Their average scoring drive traveled just 24 yards, showing how dependent the offense was on short fields rather than sustained efficiency. When forced to go the length of the field, the Ducks struggled.
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Indiana is well-equipped to exploit that. The Hoosiers can extend drives offensively, and when stalled, their Australian punter Mitch McCarthy regularly flips the field — limiting returns and pinning opponents inside the 20. That pressure compounds against an Oregon offense that already leaned on short fields to score.
With Indiana’s interior defensive push likely forcing quick throws and limiting explosives, Oregon may again find itself needing long, mistake-free marches to score — something we didn’t see the Ducks accomplish against Texas Tech.
Bet: Oregon team total under 21.5 (-119)
Feng: Indiana is an elite team rightfully favored to win a national championship. The Hoosiers already have a 30-20 win at Oregon this season, a game in which they had to overcome a pick 6 by QB Fernando Mendoza. In that prior game, QB Dante Moore had a poor performance, with a 27.5% passing success rate and 3.78 yards per pass attempt (40.7%, 6.37 averages). Moore is a much better QB than that.
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Oregon is a championship-caliber team as well, and ranks 10th on offense and fifth on defense in my adjusted yards per play metric. They have the talent and coaching to win this game outright. My member model favors Indiana by 1.4 points. As much as I hate to go against Curt Cignetti, the spread is too high in this game.
Lean: Oregon +4 or better
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