$1 Billion Out in Two Sessions
Investors are not following the pitch yet. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $398.62 million on November 2, after $643 million left the funds on October 30, which puts roughly $1 billion of redemptions across the last two trading sessions. Together with Ethereum products, the funds shed $538 million on Monday and held $111.3 billion that day. The Ethereum side accounted for $139.80 million of the latest outflow, extending a pullback that has run through most sessions since early October. BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest spot fund, saw $405.3 million leave in one day, its heaviest redemption since June. Timing explains part of the pressure: the October 30 wave hit a day after hackers stole $6.3 billion from Binance on October 29, a breach that rattled confidence across the market and pushed some allocators to the sidelines. The mechanics add a sell-side twist. When investors redeem ETF shares, the issuer sells or hands back the Bitcoin ($BTC) behind them, which feeds fresh supply into the coin’s market while prices are already soft, a channel that does not exist for custodial wrappers such as Wrapped Bitcoin. Withdrawals of this size still matter at the margin, because issuers who must sell can hit an already thin order book. Scale tempers the alarm. The latest Bitcoin outflow equals about 0.4% of the $98.12 billion the spot funds hold, a trim rather than an exit. Two numbers now set the near-term story: whether daily redemptions shrink over the coming sessions, and whether Citi puts a date on Custody+ before December 31. If both turn friendly, the bank’s wealth channel and the funds’ demand curve could line up again for the first time since early October.
The tape gives Citi’s pitch a hard backdrop. COINOTAG’s composite scoring, the model behind our Bitcoin technical analysis, puts the strongest resistance at $78,119, scored 96 out of 100, with firm support at $76,151, scored 89; Bitcoin ($BTC) traded at $77,619 at the time of writing, wedged between the two. Positioning is calm rather than stressed: open interest in perpetual contract trading stands at $16.25 billion with a barely positive funding rate of 0.0062%, and the Fear and Greed Index reads 26 out of 100, deep in fear. Sustained redemptions would keep pressing supply against $76,151; a daily close above $78,119 would be the first evidence the outflow wave is fading.
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