The system behind those rescues keeps getting larger. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet grew from $0.9 trillion in September 2008 to $9.0 trillion in April 2022, and annual growth in M2 money supply peaked at 26.8% in February 2021, the fastest pace in data back to 1960. Net interest on federal debt reached $1.05 trillion in fiscal 2026, more than the $965 billion spent on defense.
Small businesses get hit hardest, and they start with thin buffers. In a survey taken in the first weeks of the 2020 shutdowns, the median firm with more than $10,000 in monthly expenses held about two weeks of cash. When a barber runs short, nobody waives the rules to save the shop. The owner borrows, cuts hours, or locks the door, and the price of everything the shop buys is still rising.
Small businesses absorb the cost in prices and closures
The cost arrives first on the invoice. A pound of ground beef cost $3.87 in February 2020 and $6.79 in September 2026, a 76% increase against 30% for consumer prices overall.
Many owners then pass part of it on. In September, a net 31% of small business owners reported raising their selling prices, more than double the historical average of net 14%.
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