The impending signal, therefore, suggests that bitcoin’s price recovery over the past three months is real. The token’s price has surged by more than 40% to $87,000 during the third quarter. Lately, the ascent has stalled at around $85,000 amid a sustained uptrend in the U.S. Dollar Index.
“To state a fact, the latest signal confirms the recovery has endured,” Subburaj said.
Some of the past alignments have marked the start of major rallies. One formed on Oct. 27, 2020, when $BTC traded around $13,600, and held until May 2021. By then, bitcoin had hit a then-record high above $64,000. Another, confirmed in early November 2023, stayed intact until May 2024, during which bitcoin more than doubled from roughly $35,000 to $73,000.
Others have been far less rewarding. The bullish alignment that formed in June 2025 lasted 97 days, but bitcoin gained only modestly, rising from about $106,000 to $112,000. A similar set-up in June 2024 lasted just 20 days, and bitcoin fell about 10%.
“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj said. “The asset’s price behaviour afterwards will determine whether it becomes a sustained bull-market structure or another short-lived alignment.”
He explained that the real test now is whether bitcoin’s spot price can continue to stay above its 50-day average.
“The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction,” he said.
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