The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, surged above $65,000 yesterday following positive developments from the US-Iran front and news of Strategy’s $BTC purchases.
However, this rise was short-lived. $BTC fell to around $62,000 along with the declines seen in US stocks.
While the risk of further declines for Bitcoin still remains, one analyst shared a bullish signal for $BTC.
Market analyst Omkar Godbole compared two moving averages for Bitcoin: the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-week moving average.
At this point, the analyst noted that the 50 and 100-week moving averages are very close to a death cross. Accordingly, the 50-week moving average, representing approximately one year, is very close to falling below the 100-week moving average. Based on current trends, the analyst predicts this crossover could occur as early as next week.
This phenomenon, referred to as a bearish cross among market analysts, can signal a market bottom and the beginning of a long-term bull market.
While the death cross is often interpreted as a bearish signal, according to the analyst, historical data suggests that this particular event marks the end of previous bear markets and is followed by a bull run.
Godbole argues that SMAs are strong lagging indicators in $BTC, and that when a death cross occurs at the 50 and 100-week moving averages, while it might seem frightening for bulls, it’s potentially positive news.
According to the analyst, there have been three such bear market intersections in Bitcoin’s history. Each occurred near the bottom of a major bear market and marked the beginning of a three-year bull run.
In this context, a potential intersection between the upcoming 50 and 100-week moving averages may indicate that the current bear market has bottomed out and an uptrend is near. However, such past patterns do not guarantee the same results in the future. Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors can either determine or disrupt past trends.
Therefore, according to the analyst, factors such as bond yields, Fed interest rate decisions, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and Strategy’s recent sale are critical in determining $BTC’s next move.
*This is not investment advice.
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