However, Cowen added that these indicators do not offer a definitive bullish guarantee. He stated that Bitcoin falling below the $83,000 level, especially on weekly closes, could seriously weaken the current bullish scenario. According to the analyst, such a development could lead to a concentration of selling pressure within just two or three weeks, similar to the false breakouts seen in 2015 and 2020.
Cowen believes that for Bitcoin to continue its upward trend, it needs to maintain its 50-day moving average and reach a new local high above $87,000 before the end of October. Otherwise, he says, the price could quickly retreat towards the lower end of its current trading range.
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The $50,000–$60,000 Scenario for Bitcoin is Also on the Table
Another risk highlighted by Cowen was the Fed’s monetary policy. The analyst argued that rising inflation, which could lead to interest rate hikes, could put pressure on Bitcoin and other risky assets.
Cowen, specifically comparing the situation to 2019, noted that Bitcoin’s rise then was supported by the Fed’s balance sheet expansion and interest rate cuts, but that current monetary policy is moving in the opposite direction. He also pointed out that increasing concerns about economic growth in the US and a potential sharp correction in stock markets could negatively impact the cryptocurrency market.
The analyst stated that Bitcoin’s valuation against gold has not yet given a definitive bottom signal. Considering the possibility of the Bitcoin/gold ratio falling back to the historically seen level of 10, Cowen noted that in a scenario where gold is at $5,000, Bitcoin could be at $50,000, and if gold is at $6,000, it could be at $60,000. He added that this is more of a possible macroeconomic scenario than a direct price target.
Cowen also argued that if Bitcoin were to fall again and form a new low above its current level, it could have a more negative impact on the market than expected. He stated that such a move could damage investor confidence and pave the way for a longer recession that could extend into 2027.
*This is not investment advice.
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