Tag: Business – Decrypt

  • ETHZilla Drops Ethereum Treasury Label in Rebrand After Share Price Collapse

    ETHZilla Drops Ethereum Treasury Label in Rebrand After Share Price Collapse

    In brief

    • ETHZilla will rebrand as Forum Markets and trade as FRMM on Nasdaq at the start of March
    • The move follows a week after investors exited as it turned away from an Ethereum balance sheet model.
    • Observers say single-asset treasury strategies depend on sustained equity premiums and strong market conditions.

    Former Ethereum treasury firm ETHZilla said it will rebrand as Forum Markets and adopt a new Nasdaq ticker next month, formalizing a shift away from balance-sheet crypto exposure toward tokenized real-world assets.

    The move marks a departure from the company’s earlier strategy of positioning its shares as a public proxy for Ethereum, an approach that faltered as the stock fell sharply from last year’s highs and the firm reduced its crypto holdings.

    ETHZilla’s shares peaked at $107 on August 13, 2025, shortly after the company announced plans to build a $425 million Ethereum treasury following a pivot from its former biotech business.

    The strategy initially drew investor interest but later unraveled as the share price declined, investors exited, and the company began selling assets to scale back its exposure.

    Shares rose 13.3% on Wednesday to $3.91 following the rebranding announcement, though the stock remains down about 96% from its August peak, according to Google Finance data.

    Under the Forum Markets name, the company said it plans to focus on developing tokenized products backed by real-world assets, using regulated infrastructure rather than holding large crypto positions on its balance sheet.

    The rebrand follows Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund exiting its position in ETHZilla earlier this month. The departure of a prominent early backer came as the stock slid sharply, and the firm’s positioning as a publicly traded proxy for ETH exposure drew increased scrutiny.

    Earlier this month, the company said it would pivot into jet engine leasing and other aviation-related assets to further bolster its business model and equity performance amid a weakening Ethereum price.

    “Single-asset treasury strategies are highly dependent on strong market conditions and sustained equity premiums,” Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at quantitative trading firm Kronos Research, told Decrypt.

    “Treasury-focused firms ultimately need revenue-generating businesses and broader asset exposure to remain relevant long term,” Liu said.

    Such strategies, like Forum’s previous endeavors, could be considered “fragile because its value is tightly linked to network activity,” thereby creating “a correlation trap where purchasing power weakens during ecosystem downturns,” he explained.

    That vulnerability is compounded by fragmentation across Ethereum’s main network and its layer-2 chains, which Liu said dilutes its narrative and premium. This condition, he said, is “further undermined by the absence of a hard supply cap, leaving its long-term scarcity proposition open to question.”

    Forum Markets is expected to begin trading under the ticker symbol “FRMM” on March 2, after previously trading under the ticker “ETHZ” on the Nasdaq Capital Market.

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  • Anthropic, OpenAI Dial Back Safety Language as AI Race Accelerates

    Anthropic, OpenAI Dial Back Safety Language as AI Race Accelerates

    In brief

    • TIME reports Anthropic dropped a pledge to halt training without guaranteed safeguards.
    • OpenAI also removed “safely” from its mission after restructuring into a for-profit entity.
    • Experts say the shift reflects political, economic, and intellectual changes.

    Anthropic has dropped a central safety pledge from its Responsible Scaling Policy, according to a report by TIME. The changes loosen a commitment that once barred the Claude AI developer from training advanced AI systems without guaranteed safeguards in place.

    The move reshapes how the company positions itself in the AI race against rivals OpenAI, Google, and xAI. Anthropic has long cast itself as one of the industry’s most safety-focused labs, but under the revised policy, Anthropic no longer promises to halt training if risk mitigations are not fully in place.

    “We felt that it wouldn’t actually help anyone for us to stop training AI models,” Anthropic’s chief science officer, Jared Kaplan, told TIME. “We didn’t really feel, with the rapid advance of AI, that it made sense for us to make unilateral commitments … if competitors are blazing ahead.”

    The change comes as Anthropic finds itself embroiled in a public dispute with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over refusing to grant the Pentagon full access to Claude, making it the only major AI lab among Google, xAI, Meta, and OpenAI to take that stance.

    Edward Geist, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, said the earlier “AI safety” framing emerged from a specific intellectual community that predated today’s large language models.

    “As of a few years ago, there was the field of AI safety,” Geist told Decrypt. “AI safety was associated with a particular set of views that came out of the community of people who cared about powerful AI before we had these LLMs.”

    Geist said early AI safety advocates were working from a very different vision of what advanced artificial intelligence would look like.

    “They ended up conceptualizing the problem in a way that, in some respects, was envisioning something qualitatively different from these current LLMs, for better or worse,” Geist said.

    Geist said the language change also sends a signal to investors and policymakers.

    “Part of it is signaling to various constituencies that a lot of these companies want to give the impression that they are not holding back in the economic competition because of concerns about ‘AI safety,’” he said, adding that the terminology itself is changing to fit the times.

    Anthropic is not alone in revising its safety language.

    What defines AI safety?

    A recent report by the non-profit news organization, The Conversation, noted how OpenAI also changed its mission statement in its 2024 IRS filing, removing the word “safely.”

    The company’s earlier statement pledged to build general-purpose AI that “safely benefits humanity, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return.” The updated version now states its goal is “to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity.”

    “The problem with the term AI security is that no one seems to know what that means exactly,” Geist said. “Then again, the AI safety term was also contested.”

    Anthropic’s new policy emphasizes transparency measures such as publishing “frontier safety roadmaps” and regular “risk reports,” and says it will delay development if it believes there is a significant risk of catastrophe.

    Anthropic and OpenAI’s policy shifts come as the companies look to strengthen their commercial position.

    Earlier this month, Anthropic said it raised $30 billion at a valuation of about $380 billion. At the same time, OpenAI is finalizing a funding round backed by Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia that could reach $100 billion.

    Anthropic and OpenAI, along with Google and xAI, have been awarded lucrative government contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense. For Anthropic, however, the contract appears in doubt as the Pentagon weighs whether to cut ties to the AI firm over access complaints.

    As capital pours into the sector and geopolitical competition intensifies, Hamza Chaudhry, AI and National Security Lead at the Future of Life Institute, said the policy change reflects shifting political dynamics rather than a bid for Pentagon business.

    “If that were the case, they would have just backed down from what the Pentagon said a week ago,” Chaudhry told Decrypt. “Dario [Amodei] wouldn’t have shown up to meet.”

    Instead, Chaudhry said the rewrite reflects a turning point in how AI companies talk about risk as political pressure and competitive stakes rise.

    “Anthropic is now saying, ‘Look, we can’t keep saying safety, we can’t unconditionally pause, and we’re going to push for much lighter-touch regulation,’” he said.

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  • Samsung’s Galaxy S26 Billed as First ‘Agentic AI Phone’—Here’s What That Means

    Samsung’s Galaxy S26 Billed as First ‘Agentic AI Phone’—Here’s What That Means

    In brief

    • Samsung brands the Galaxy S26 as the first “agentic AI phone.”
    • Samsung is layering Gemini, Perplexity, and a revamped Bixby into a multi-agent stack.
    • There is also a toggleable hardware privacy display that blocks shoulder-surfers at the pixel level.

    Samsung CEO TM Roh stepped onto a San Francisco stage Wednesday, introduced the Galaxy S26 line of phones, and said something no phone maker has said before.

    “Imagine a phone that anticipates your needs before you even realize them,” he said. “A phone that learns your habits and adapts in real time. A phone that takes actions on your behalf. This is the agentic AI phone.”

    That sounds interesting, but what does “agentic AI phone” actually mean—and why should anyone care?

    Up until now, AI in phones has been reactive. You ask, it answers. Agentic AI is different. It takes actions on your behalf, across apps, without you doing the tapping or talking. Think of the difference between a search engine and a personal assistant who actually books the restaurant after you mention that you’re hungry.

    That shift feels like the thing every tech company has been chasing since Siri launched on Apple’s iPhone 4S back in 2011—and yes, Siri was arguably the first real attempt at an agentic phone experience. You were supposed to just talk to your phone and have it do stuff. All these years later, we’re not quite there yet, but Samsung and Google are the ones trying to build it.

    This is also what a wave of AI hardware startups spent the last two years trying—and failing—to do. The Humane AI Pin launched in late 2023 for $699 plus a $24 monthly subscription, got destroyed in reviews, sold barely 10,000 units, and ended up acquired by HP for $116 million—a fraction of its $1 billion valuation.

    The Rabbit R1, a $199 pocket AI companion that Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella called the most impressive tech demo since Steve Jobs unveiled the iPhone, shipped to real users and underwhelmed almost everyone. Both devices shared the same core pitch: your phone can’t do agentic AI, so you need a dedicated device. Turns out, the phone just needed better software.

    Samsung now says it’s delivering exactly what those gadgets promised—not with a new piece of hardware you have to carry alongside your phone, but through a software layer baked directly into a device you already own.

    The engine behind the Galaxy S26’s agentic features is Google’s Gemini—specifically a new capability where the AI opens apps in a virtual background window and navigates them while you do something else entirely.

    At the Unpacked event, Google’s Samir Samat showed a demo: The family group chat floods in with pizza requests, Gemini reads the thread, figures out everyone’s order, opens DoorDash, builds the cart, and waits for your manual tap before actually confirming. Your phone stays usable the whole time.

    At launch, that works for DoorDash, GrubHub, Uber, Kroger, Walmart, and other selected apps in a very short list. It’s rolling out first as a limited preview in the U.S. and South Korea, with more apps to come.

    Calling it a beta would be accurate—Google is explicitly collecting feedback from S26 users. The important guardrail: Gemini never hits “confirm” or “pay” without your final tap. You can also watch it work in real time if you don’t trust it to operate unsupervised, which, fair.

    Alongside Gemini, Samsung is bringing in Perplexity as a second system-level agent. Perplexity, which bills itself as an “answer engine” rather than a chatbot, will be accessible via a wake phrase or a side-button shortcut on the S26.

    Inside Samsung’s web browser, Perplexity’s Ask AI feature can sweep across all your open tabs and recent browsing history simultaneously to answer a research question without you jumping between sources. Samsung says nearly 80% of users already rely on more than two AI agents daily—which is the practical justification for offering both instead of picking one.

    There’s also a new Bixby, the AI assistant that Samsung refuses to let die. It has been overhauled to go beyond simple command executions and operate based on context understanding. Bixby now understands natural language well enough that you can say “My eyes hurt after looking at the screen,” and it’ll open the brightness settings automatically. It also pulls live information directly into your conversation without kicking you out to another app. Whether people will actually use Bixby this time is a separate conversation.

    Beyond the agentic stuff, the AI feature list for the S26 is long. “Now Brief” is a personalized daily digest—it proactively surfaces your restaurant reservations pulled from notification history, schedule conflicts, and energy levels, even for events you never manually added to a calendar. “Call Screening” identifies unknown callers and summarizes their intent before you pick up. A new “Nudge” feature detects context in a chat—if someone asks if you’re free this weekend, it brings your calendar to you inside the message thread instead of making you switch apps.

    “Photo Assist” lets you describe something missing from a shot and Galaxy AI adds it in. The front camera also now uses an AI image signal processor for sharper detail on selfies, while night video gets cleaner grain reduction. The S26 Ultra shoots 8K video using the new APV codec, which supports near-lossless quality so footage survives multiple rounds of editing. The whole camera pipeline leans heavily on AI at the hardware level.

    On competition: Apple has been promising a smarter Siri since at least 2024 and still hasn’t delivered the features it announced. Google’s own Pixel 10 will get the same Gemini agentic features—but Samsung ships first, in far larger volumes, to far more countries. No other phone maker is currently using the word “agentic” to describe its product. Samsung grabbed the label. Whether the tech giant earns it long-term depends on how fast the beta expands.

    But the actual standout from Wednesday wasn’t the AI. It was a piece of display hardware that privacy-conscious people will appreciate: a built-in privacy display that lets you control whether onlookers can actually see what you’re doing on your phone.

    It works like this: a “black matrix” layer physically narrows the path of light from each pixel so only the person holding the phone can see what’s on screen. Those watching at an angle get nothing but pitch black, as if the display is off. Someone next to you on the subway sees nothing.

    Unlike the plastic privacy films that have existed for years and make your screen permanently darker and harder to share, this one toggles on and off. You can apply it only to specific apps—banking stays private, for example, but your games don’t—or just to the notification bar, so a person next to you can see most of your screen but not your incoming messages.

    The Samsung Galaxy S26 Ultra, starting at $1,299, is the only phone in the world with this feature built into the display hardware. Pre-orders open today; shipping starts March 11. The standard Galaxy S26 starts at $899, while the larger Galaxy S26 Plus will sell for $1,099.

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  • Nvidia Earnings Results Steady Markets as AI Spending Debate Intensifies

    Nvidia Earnings Results Steady Markets as AI Spending Debate Intensifies

    In brief

    • Nvidia’s data-center revenue rose 75% to $62.3 billion, reinforcing its dominance at the core of global AI infrastructure spending.
    • U.S. stocks rebounded modestly, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq outperforming.
    • CEO Jensen Huang has argued that AI remains early in a multitrillion-dollar buildout, countering investor concerns that the sector may be overheating.

    U.S. stocks edged higher late Wednesday as investors weighed another blockbuster earnings report from Nvidia against lingering concerns over the scale and sustainability of global AI investment.

    Nvidia reported fourth-quarter revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% from a year earlier, driven almost entirely by continued demand for data-center infrastructure.

    Sales in that segment rose 75% to $62.3 billion, reinforcing the company’s central role in the artificial-intelligence buildout that has underpinned equity markets over the past year. 

    “Nvidia has sent a clear message to the market with this result that the AI infrastructure buildout is only accelerating,” Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro, told Decrypt. “Every quarter, the sceptics line up, and quarter after quarter, Nvidia has managed to prove them wrong.”

    Net income nearly doubled to $43 billion, while gross margins held at about 75%, reflecting strong pricing power.

    The results helped lift semiconductor shares and supported a modest rebound in broader equity benchmarks after a volatile start to the week.

    The Nasdaq outperformed, advancing 1.26% while the S&P 500 closed higher at 0.8% as gains in megacap technology stocks offset weakness in more cyclical sectors. Shares for Nvidia in after-hours trading rose 1.37% to $198.31.

    Crypto also saw major valuation gains in blue-chip assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, which jumped 7% and 12.5%, respectively, ahead of the earnings release.

    Treasury yields fell across most maturities, signalling continued caution in rates markets even as equities stabilized.

    Nvidia’s guidance, meanwhile, added to the sense that AI spending remains resilient. 

    The company forecast first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of about $78 billion, implying further sequential growth, despite excluding any contribution from China data-centre sales. 

    Management said customers continue to invest aggressively to scale inference and deploy so-called agentic AI systems.

    The earnings echoed comments made last month by Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he argued that AI is still in the early stages of what he described as the “largest infrastructure buildout in human history.” 

    Huang said trillions of dollars in additional investment would be needed across energy, chips, and data centres to support the technology’s long-term potential, pushing back against fears that the sector is already in a bubble.

    Goldman Sachs has forecast that AI capital expenditure growth will peak in 2026 and then decelerate, which investors see as a mixed signal: growth will remain, but cash-flow visibility could improve only as spending slows.

    Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest, by contrast, has argued that AI infrastructure spending is still in its early stages, framing the current surge in capital outlays by hyperscalers as the start of a multi-year investment cycle rather than a peak.

    “Nvidia has locked in $95.2 billion in inventory and capacity commitments, nearly double the level from a year ago,” Gilbert said. “When the world’s biggest companies are spending at this pace, you’d better be ready to deliver.”

    Editor’s note: Adds comment from eToro analyst Josh Gilbert

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  • OpenAI, Google and Anthropic AI Models Deployed Nuclear Weapons in 95% of War Simulations

    OpenAI, Google and Anthropic AI Models Deployed Nuclear Weapons in 95% of War Simulations

    In brief

    • The leading AI models deployed nuclear weapons in 95% of war-game scenarios.
    • None chose full surrender, even when losing.
    • Researchers warn AI use may escalate conflicts under pressure.

    Like a scene out of the 1980s sci-fi classic films “The Terminator” and “WarGames,” modern artificial intelligence models used in simulated war games escalated to nuclear weapons in nearly every scenario tested, according to new research from King’s College London.

    In the report published last week, researchers said that during simulated geopolitical crises, three leading large language models—OpenAI’s GPT-5.2, Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4, and Google’s Gemini 3 Flash—chose to deploy nuclear weapons in 95% of cases.

    “Each model played six wargames against each rival across different crisis scenarios, with a seventh match against a copy of itself, yielding 21 games in total and over 300 turns,” the report said. “Models assumed the roles of national leaders commanding rival nuclear-armed superpowers, with state profiles loosely inspired by Cold War dynamics.”

    Edward Geist, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation said the escalation rate may reflect the design of the simulation rather than an inherent tendency of the models themselves.

    “My concern about this work is that the simulator appears to be structured in a way that strongly incentivizes escalation,” Geist told Decrypt.

    In the study, AI models were placed in high-stakes scenarios involving border disputes, competition for scarce resources, and threats to regime survival. Each system operated along an escalation ladder that ranged from diplomatic protests and surrender to full-scale strategic nuclear war.

    Geist said the study’s outcome data raised questions about how the simulation defined victory.

    “You read the paper and it has this breakdown of who won each of the games, and it turns out that all of these games have a winner,” he said. “But three of these games involve strategic nuclear use, which suggests that the way the simulator is set up—it makes nuclear wars good and easy to win.”

    According to the report, the models generated roughly 780,000 words explaining their decisions, and at least one tactical nuclear weapon was used in nearly every simulated conflict.

    “To put this in perspective: The tournament generated more words of strategic reasoning than War and Peace and The Iliad combined (730,000 words), and roughly three times the total recorded deliberations of Kennedy’s Executive Committee during the Cuban Missile Crisis (260,000 words across 43 hours of meetings),” researchers wrote.

    During the war games, none of the AI models chose to surrender outright, regardless of battlefield position. While the models would temporarily attempt to de-escalate violence, in 86% of the scenarios, they escalated further than the model’s own stated reasoning appeared to intend, reflecting errors under simulated “fog of war.”

    According to Geist the game’s scoring logic appeared to reward the side with a marginal advantage at the moment nuclear war was triggered.

    “So he who dies with the most toys wins in the simulation,” he said.

    While the researchers expressed doubt that governments would hand control of nuclear arsenals to autonomous systems, they noted that compressed decision timelines in future crises could increase pressure to rely on AI-generated recommendations.

    The research comes as military leaders increasingly look to deploy artificial intelligence on the battlefield. In December, the U.S. Department of Defense launched GenAI.mil, a new platform that brings frontier AI models into U.S. military use. At launch, the platform included Google’s Gemini for Government, and thanks to deals with xAI and OpenAI, Grok and ChatGPT are also available.

    On Tuesday, CBS News reported that the U.S. Department of Defense threatened to blacklist Anthropic, the developer of Claude AI, if it was not given unrestricted military access to the AI model. Since 2024, Anthropic has given access to its AI models through a partnership with AWS and military contractor Palantir. Last summer, Anthropic was awarded a $200 million agreement to “prototype frontier AI capabilities that advance U.S. national security.”

    However, according to a report citing sources familiar with the situation, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave Anthropic until Friday to comply with the Pentagon’s demand that its Claude model be made available. The department is weighing whether to designate Claude a “supply chain risk.”

    Axios reported this week that the Department of Defense has signed an agreement with Elon Musk’s xAI to allow its Grok model to operate in classified military systems, positioning it as a potential replacement if the Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic.

    OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google did not respond to requests for comment by Decrypt.

    Editor’s note: Adds comment from RAND Corporation policy researcher Edward Geist after publication

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  • Bitcoin Treasury Company GD Culture May Sell BTC to Buy Back Shares

    Bitcoin Treasury Company GD Culture May Sell BTC to Buy Back Shares

    In brief

    • GD Culture earned board approval to sell some of its 7,500 Bitcoin in order to fund a $100 million share buyback plan.
    • Shares rose 15% amid the news, but are still down 60% from its 52-week high.
    • The firm accumulated the 7,500 BTC as part of an acquisition last fall.

    Publicly traded artificial intelligence and livestreaming firm GD Culture approved the sale of some of its 7,500 Bitcoin, or around $518 million worth, as part of its effort to fund a new share repurchase program, the firm announced on Wednesday. 

    The program, approved earlier this month by the firm’s board of directors, authorizes it to repurchase up to $100 million in GD Culture shares (GDC) intermittently over the next six months. 

    “The board’s authorization permits the company to execute the Bitcoin sales in one or more transactions, from time to time, as management determines to be in the best interests of the company and its shareholders,” the firm said in a statement. 

    “Proceeds from the Bitcoin sales are expected to be used to fund repurchases of the company’s common stocks pursuant to the share repurchase program.” 

    While the firm is authorized to sell all of its Bitcoin holdings, it is under “no obligation” to sell any specific amount and the program can be modified or discontinued at any time, according to its announcement. 

    GD Culture picked up the 7,500 BTC last September when it entered into a share agreement to acquire Pallas Capital and its holdings. Now it can start to sell off its treasury if it wishes to, though its total holdings are worth around five times more than the approved amount for share repurchases. 

    Shares in the firm are up around 21% following the news, recently trading at $4.04 but have still fallen more than 10% in the last month.

    It’s not the first crypto treasury to offload some of its crypto assets in order to fund share repurchase agreements. In October, Ethereum treasury firm ETHZilla sold around $40 million in ETH to help buy back shares as its stock traded below the value of its net assets. 

    Other firms have recently sold Bitcoin to fund other initiatives as well. Riot Platforms dumped $200 million in BTC during November and December amid what analysts believe is a bid to fund its AI initiatives. 

    Earlier this month publicly traded miner Cango did the same, parting ways with $305 million worth of the top crypto asset. 

    A representative for GD Culture did not immediately respond to Decrypt’s request for comment. 

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  • Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana Shorts Get Rekt as BTC Price Rebounds Near $69K

    Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana Shorts Get Rekt as BTC Price Rebounds Near $69K

    Traders betting against the prices of major cryptocurrencies are feeling the pain Wednesday as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top assets are well in the green, leading to hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of short position liquidations.

    Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded to nearly $69,000 for the first time in more than a week, recently trading for $69,869 after falling below the $63,000 mark on Tuesday. While up more than 7% on the day, the price of the leading cryptocurrency remains down more than 21% over the last 30 days.

    Altcoins Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are the biggest gainers among the top 10 coins by market cap, with Ethereum rising 12% on the day to a recent price of $2,075 while Solana has jumped almost 14% to just shy of $89. Both coins had shown substantial losses in recent weeks, but are swinging back the other direction on Wednesday.

    Overall, the crypto market has climbed by about 6.6% over the last 24 hours, per data from CoinGecko. Other major gainers with double-digit rises during that span include Polkadot (DOT), Filecoin (FIL), Uniswap (UNI), Aptos (APT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Chainlink (LINK).

    More than $400 million worth of short positions have been liquidated in the last 24 hours, per data from CoinGlass, making up the vast majority of the $463 million worth of total liquidations during that span.

    Bitcoin currently leads the list with about $200 million worth of liquidations, with Ethereum next up with $153 million worth and Solana well behind in third with about $22 million.

    Prominent crypto stocks are skyrocketing Wednesday as the risk-on appetite grows in equities, with USDC stablecoin issuer Circle showing a 29% spike to $79 per share after reporting earnings, while blockchain lender Figure is up 15% to $34 per share and Ethereum treasury leader BitMine Immersion Technologies has swung up almost 14% to $22.

    Other notable crypto stock gainers today include Coinbase with a 13% swing to $183, Bitcoin treasury giant Strategy rising nearly 9% to above $135 per share, and Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings with a 7% rise to $8.66.

    While still bearish overall, users on Myriad—a prediction markets platform operated by Decrypt‘s parent company, Dastan—are gaining more confidence that Bitcoin will continue rising. They currently pencil in a 43% chance that Bitcoin will next rise to $84,000 rather than fall to $55,000, with odds rising about 14% in the last day.

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  • UK Selects Firms for Stablecoin Regulatory Sandbox, Including Revolut

    UK Selects Firms for Stablecoin Regulatory Sandbox, Including Revolut

    In brief

    • The Financial Conduct Authority has selected four firms for a stablecoin regulatory sandbox.
    • The program will help shape final UK stablecoin rules due later this year.
    • The sandbox will let the companies test stablecoin issuance in real-world conditions without regulatory penalties.

    The UK’s top financial regulator announced Wednesday that it has selected four crypto firms to participate in a risk-free regulatory sandbox that will inform how the agency shapes stablecoin rules later this year.

    The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) chose neobank startup Revolut to participate in the sandbox, along with three other companies: Monee Financial Technologies, ReStabilise, and VVTX. All of the companies have existing stablecoin-related projects.

    Decrypt reported last year that Revolut is mulling launching its own stablecoin, though the company has not yet made any announcements on the subject. Users on Myriad Markets—a prediction market operated by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan—currently estimate that odds stand at 34% that Revolut will announce such a token before July.

    The FCA’s stablecoin sandbox will allow the company, along with the three others, to trial stablecoin-related products in real-world conditions without fear of regulatory repercussions. The testing will focus primarily on stablecoin issuance, the FCA said.

    The UK is currently developing its own rules regarding stablecoins, which are set to be finalized later this year. The results of the stablecoin sandbox program will directly impact the shape of those rules.

    The four selected firms’ proposals represent a range of stablecoin use cases, including payments, wholesale settlement and crypto trading,” the FCA said Wednesday. “Each firm will receive feedback from FCA specialists while helping to shape the UK’s regulatory approach.”

    The companies were chosen from a pool of 20 applications, the FCA noted.

    The United States passed its own stablecoin regulatory regime, the GENIUS Act, last summer. UK banking leaders have emphasized the importance, in recent months, of not falling behind America’s pace of establishing crypto regulations.

    In September, both countries announced a joint crypto regulatory task force, chaired by officials from both the U.S. Treasury Department and His Majesty’s Treasury. The aim of the task force is to increase links between the American and British capital markets and reduce barriers between both nation’s crypto sectors.

    The group, dubbed the Transatlantic Taskforce for Markets of the Future, is expected to release a report on its findings this summer.

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  • Bitcoin Giant Strategy, Coinbase Among Most-Shorted Stocks: Goldman Sachs

    In brief

    • Shares of Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) are two of the most shorted stocks on the market, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs.
    • Strategy has been a popular short target for use in arbitrage trades, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told Decrypt.
    • The firm’s stocks have both fallen heavily amid crypto’s decline, dropping 60% and 40% respectively in the last six months.

    Big money is betting against crypto equities like Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) and American crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), new data compiled by Goldman Sachs Research shows. 

    The firms find themselves ranked first and fourth in short interest as a percentage of market cap at 14% and 10%, respectively, among companies valued at $25 billion or greater. 

    “Crypto is like cilantro: Some people love it and some people hate it,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told Decrypt. “It’s not surprising to see it at the top of the short interest list,” he said of MSTR and COIN’s ranking.

    While the data, gathered from reported hedge fund holdings at the end of 2025, shows no notable change in hedge fund ownership for the two firms from Q3 to Q4, the pair have been some of the weakest performers among top shorted stocks. 

    While up about 9% on Wednesday to a recent price of $135, shares of MSTR have plunged around 60% in the last six months as Bitcoin has fallen precipitously from its October all-time high of $126,080. The top crypto asset, and the bedrock of Strategy’s business, is now changing hands at $68,614—over 45% below that all-time high mark. 

    That extended decline has led to mounting losses for Michael Saylor’s firm, formerly known as MicroStrategy, which now finds itself facing unrealized or paper losses of around $5.3 billion.

    Skeptics have previously noted that if MSTR shares fall far enough, it could force the firm to sell some of its Bitcoin holdings to repay debts, creating a cascading event within the market as its biggest player liquidates its BTC. The company established a cash reserve in December to cover stockholder dividends, but didn’t rule out potential Bitcoin sales in the future.

    Users on Myriad, a prediction market platform operated by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, currently pencil in a less than 15% chance that Strategy sells Bitcoin by the end of 2026. That mark has fallen from a peak above 35% earlier this month.

    “Shorting MSTR has been a popular trade for the past couple of years,” said Hougan, noting that some have been running arbitrage trades like “long Bitcoin and then shorting MSTR,” or “long the convertible bonds and short the stock.” 

    While those trades are “reasonable” in Hougan’s eyes, he said some traders shorting the firm are misinterpreting its business model.

    “Some people don’t understand MSTR’s balance sheet, and think the company is at some kind of threat of going bankrupt if the value of Bitcoin falls below their purchase price,” he added. 

    “This is, of course, wrong, and anyone shorting for this reason will learn they are wrong the hard way.”

    Saylor recently defended the firm amid similar concerns, noting that Strategy would be fine even if Bitcoin dropped all the way down to $8,000

    Despite its business not being centered on only Bitcoin, shares in Coinbase too have taken a dive amid falling crypto prices over the last six months, dropping around 40% during that time. The firm recently missed expectations for its fourth quarter earnings, but with shares trading around $167 at the time, analysts from Bernstein indicated the stock was “too ‘cheap’ to sell.” 

    COIN shares are trading higher today, above $184 amid a 14% boost on Wednesday, but sit well off its 52-week high of $444.

    Other firms with crypto ties on the most shorted list include CoreWeave (CRWV), Robinhood (HOOD), and PayPal (PYPL). 

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  • MrBeast Employee Fined, Suspended by Kalshi for Insider Trading on YouTube Videos

    MrBeast Employee Fined, Suspended by Kalshi for Insider Trading on YouTube Videos

    In brief

    • Kalshi shared information about two insider trading cases.
    • They involved a YouTube video editor for MrBeast and a California political candidate, the company said.
    • Both individuals faced suspensions and fines.

    Kalshi revealed enforcement actions against two traders on Wednesday, saying a political candidate in California and YouTube video editor who worked for MrBeast conducted insider trading on its prediction markets platform.

    The cases are among the first that Kalshi has made public after sifting through a monthslong backlog of suspicious trading activity. They resulted in fines and disciplinary actions, as well as referrals to the CFTC, according to a blog post draft shared with Decrypt.

    One of the individuals, identified as Artem Kaptur by Kalshi, was employed by YouTube star MrBeast, whose real name is James Stephen Donaldson. The other individual was identified as Kyle Langford, a 24-year-old Republican political candidate in California.

    Kalshi said the insider linked to MrBeast traded around $4,000 on YouTube “streaming markets,” where people can wager on which words MrBeast will say in his videos. Kaptur was fined more than $20,000 and suspended from the platform for two years, Kalshi added.

    Prediction markets centered around predetermined outcomes, such as edited YouTube videos, have drawn skepticism because they are susceptible to insider trading and manipulation by the content creators themselves. Unlike a sporting event or a political election—where the outcome is determined by external, uncontrollable forces—the “truth” of a YouTube video is tailored.

    The insider linked to MrBeast exhibited “near-perfect trading success on markets with low odds,” which was flagged by Kalshi’s surveillance systems, the firm said. Meanwhile, several users flagged suspicious activity in associated trading data to the company.

    An investigation conducted by the prediction market startup determined that the video editor “likely had access to material, non-public information connected to his trading” based on his employment. 

    Following the original publication of this story, Beast Industries—the firm behind MrBeast’s growing content and packaged products empire—said it was taking action to prevent similar situations in the future.

    “Beast Industries has no tolerance for this behavior, whether by contestants or our own employees,” the spokesperson said. “We have a longstanding policy in place against employees using proprietary company information which safeguards the highest standards and ethics throughout our organization.”

    “With regard to this particular matter, we’ve already initiated an independent investigation as part of our overall ongoing efforts to ensure the integrity of our workplace and trust with our global audiences,” they added. “We welcome Kalshi—and hopefully others in the space—also taking this issue seriously, but it only works if they are willing to communicate their findings, so we’re hopeful they’ll be more open to that in the future.”

    Beast Industries did not specify whether it has taken any action against Kaptur. Decrypt inquired for more information.

    Furthermore, the spokesperson said that Beast Industries prohibits employee “wagering, betting, or [use of] prediction markets that could involve or be influenced by proprietary company information.”

    Additionally, the company said it will ensure that all contestants of its “Beast Games” show know that “access to confidential information explicitly precludes them from profiting, monetizing, or benefiting (financially or otherwise) from their access or participation in these markets.”

    The individual who appeared to be Langford wagered $200 on their own gubernatorial bid in California before pivoting to a Congressional run. Kalshi said that wager was telegraphed on social media, but he isn’t the only candidate for office in the U.S. that’s done that.

    Klashi indicated that the politician was fined $2,200 and banned from the platform for five years. It views self-wagers as a form of market manipulation. Langford predicted that he would become California’s next governor on Kalshi last year, per Event Horizon.

    Decrypt has reached out to Langford for comment.

    Kalshi said that it plans to donate fines to a nonprofit providing education on derivatives. Moving forward, it aims to publish information about investigations on a quarterly basis.

    Kalshi is required to report cases to the CFTC, but the exchange is trying to use that obligation as an opportunity to distinguish itself within a sector that critics argue is lightly regulated.

    When it comes to policing traders’ activity, Kalshi Enforcement Head Robert DeNault told Decrypt last week that “source agency” trading is among the firm’s biggest focuses.

    If a trader is affiliated with the entity responsible for an event’s resolution on Kalshi, they are barred from the market. As an example, he referenced the “legal duty” that background dancers from the Super Bowl halftime could have to refrain from trading due to confidentiality clauses.

    “Those are types of policing activity that we might see on the exchange that you wouldn’t see necessarily from a federal regulator,” he said. “‘Insider’ does have a real legal meaning, even though it’s not actually defined in any statute.”

    Editor’s note: This story was updated after publication to include comments from Beast Industries.

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