The NFL’s divisional round is often considered the best weekend of football. Eight teams, all with a reasonable (at worst) shot at the Lombardi Trophy, playing each other for the right to earn a trip to the conference championship game. What will be the keys this year?
(Games listed in order of schedule.)
Advertisement
Bills at Broncos
Key matchup: Bills’ ‘mirror’ fronts vs. Bo Nix and Broncos’ offense
What I love about the playoffs is how hyper specific the game plans can be, especially with experienced coaching staffs. Third down and second-and-long (7 or more yards to go) are considered “passing downs” in the NFL, with offensive and defensive play-callers having a separate menu of plays on their call sheets for those situations.
This is when you feel Bills head coach Sean McDermott come alive as a play-caller and designer. So while Buffalo’s run defense isn’t exactly threatening anybody right now (more on that in a bit), if the Bills can generate true dropback situations, that is when they can keep the play call more limited for Broncos head coach Sean Payton and his expansive playbook that features a bevy of screens, play action and other concepts that can move the pocket for Bo Nix.
Advertisement
One changeup that McDermott loves to throw is to run “mirror” fronts on passing downs against more dynamic quarterbacks who will look to scramble and extend plays (like Nix). I’ve talked about mirror fronts before, but it’s essentially just a modern usage of a quarterback spy. Defenses like to use a three-man front (also known as an “odd” front) with different coverages — typically a man variation that baits the quarterback to scramble — behind it. So the thinking is to flood the coverage with seven bodies while the three-man rush doesn’t have to truly worry about their pass rush lanes (so they can attack however they want), and that leaves a spy to chase a potentially flushed-out quarterback.
The Bills ran mirror fronts against the Jaguars several times in their wild-card matchup, including on the game-sealing interception. With Nix’s tendency to bail out of the pocket to try and create something when his first read isn’t available, I could see this as a way to flush him out and force a less dangerous throw, perhaps with a zone coverage behind it to muddy up Nix’s reads. Three pass rushers was something the Bills deployed last year in their playoff win over the Broncos; there were five such dropbacks, per TruMedia.
Nix’s underlying numbers have him as a top-10 quarterback against man coverage because it simplifies his reads and he’ll just take outside one-on-ones to Courtland Sutton or slot fade routes. But he’s a bottom-10 quarterback against zone coverage.
Advertisement
McDermott started using more drop-eight and mirror fronts over the past couple of seasons, and the Bills have deployed it on five or more snaps against a lot of the top quarterbacks who can run. They ran it nine snaps in Week 6 against Patrick Mahomes in 2022, and at least a half-dozen snaps in their matchups afterward; eight snaps against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last season in their divisional round matchup; and six snaps against Joe Burrow and the Bengals in the playoffs the year before. Also, when the Bills and Broncos faced each other in Week 10 in 2023, Buffalo dropped eight into coverage 11 times against Russell Wilson and this Sean Payton offense, which is the most McDermott has ever done it.
I think the Broncos will have an advantage running the ball in this game. The Bills’ run defense ranked among the league’s worst over the back half of the season and the Jaguars had no issues ripping off explosive runs last weekend. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver is practicing this week, and his return should definitely help, but the Broncos staying ahead of the sticks is what will help keep the Bills’ defense out of any exotic packages on passing downs. The Broncos rank sixth in rushing success rate since Week 10 and 19th in FTN’s rushing DVOA stat over the same time period, while the Bills defense ranked 19th and 30th in the same categories. Simplifying things for Nix and the Broncos’ offensive line that’s using a backup center will be paramount for Payton and staff.
Mirror fronts and dropping eight is just one pitch that McDermott can throw in this game, but it’s something I’ll be focusing on any time this Broncos’ offense gets behind the sticks to see if the Bills use it to mitigate any passing threat.
The Bills have a run game that could roll a bit against the aggressive Broncos defense. The Bills’ offensive line is beefy and James Cook and Ray Davis both do a nice job of putting their foot in the ground and getting north to knife through the defensive flow. Against a defensive that thrives on creating chaos with its constant movement up front, it’s one way to help control the game, even if the Broncos are always going to have their moments with their excellent unit. The passing game is interesting because the Bills are down to three healthy wide receivers and are going against one of the league’s best cornerback room with Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss patrolling the outside and the underrated Ja’Quan McMillian in the slot (McMillian is the “weakness” of this unit but has still played like an above-average starter this season).
Advertisement
The Bills will likely use their tight ends and Reggie Gilliam to base their offense in this game, but Tyrell Shavers’ blocking and vertical threat will be missed even in those personnel groupings and the Broncos’ defense has still been a top unit against heavier personnel groupings this season. I’ll be interested to see how Josh Allen and offensive coordinator Joe Brady decide to attack the Broncos team through the air. Is it trying to get Dalton Kincaid on a safety or McMillian? Is it plenty of James Cook underneath? Allen is going to have his touches on the ground, but how he decides to attack the Broncos on the backend is more of a question mark that I can’t wait to see answered rather than anything I am keen on predicting. Either way, it’s going to be a doozy.
49ers at Seahawks
Key matchup: 49ers’ beleaguered defense finding a way to pressure Sam Darnold
This game will come down to whether the 49ers can create any pressure on Sam Darnold and the Seahawks’ offensive line. When Darnold is pressured this season, he is 26th in EPA per dropback and ranks 32nd in interception rate (in the bad way), had the third-most fumbles, averages 5.2 net yards per attempt (which ranks 11th) and has the highest rate of balls batted down at the line of scrimmage among the 36 NFL quarterbacks with 200 or more pass attempts this season. When he’s not pressured, he’s first in net yards per attempt (9.4) and ranks eighth in EPA per dropback and cuts his turnover rate in half.
Advertisement
The issue is that the 49ers have perhaps the most toothless pass rush in the NFL this season, especially after Nick Bosa and first-round draft pick Mykel Williams went down with injuries. The 49ers’ defense ranks 32nd in sack rate, 30th in knockdown rate (quarterback hits and sacks) and 30th in pressure rate. Coordinator Robert Saleh has a defensive structure that bases itself on a quarters structure and two-way play from its linebackers and safeties, constantly rushing four and pushing the onus on the spine of the defense to clamp down against the run and on throws over the middle. This philosophy is fantastic when you have Fred Warner roaming the middle of the defense, not so much when you’re playing a recently promoted-off-the-practice-squad Eric Kendricks (to be fair, Kendricks had several strong moments last weekend against the Eagles).
Does Saleh break tendencies and try to heat up Darnold, speeding up his decision-making and turning this side of the ball into a gash-or-be-gashed type contest? Perhaps creating some explosive plays on defense will turn the whole thing into a slopfest that comes down to a few big plays. The Seahawks put up only 13 points when these teams faced off in Week 18, but they moved the ball with big chunks in the second half. And Seattle’s offense had other strong moments in between the sporadic botches. I don’t like to wave away anything in the NFL, especially in the playoffs, but Saleh is going to have to reach extra deep to try and get Darnold and his decision-making to spiral.
Kyle Shanahan has been doing some of his best work this season, adding new layers and tweaks to his staples while also bobbing and weaving with a lineup of players that has been in and out (mostly in) the training room and on injured reserve all season. The Seahawks limited the 49ers to one successful run and just two explosive plays in their Week 18 matchup for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Seahawks’ coverage smothered the 49ers’ third-down pass plays and forced Purdy into double-clutching the football constantly before the Seahawks collapsed the pocket like orcs storming through the walls of Helm’s Deep. Shanahan will always have new wrinkles in these games, and should have a few big shot plays that connect, but it’s going to be even tougher sledding against this strong Seahawks defense with Mike Macdonald having another week to prepare.
Advertisement
Texans at Patriots
Key matchup: Drake Maye taking deep shots vs. Texans, especially on late downs
The Houston Texans’ defense went on the road and forced Aaron Rodgers into one of the worst statistical performances we’ve seen from a quarterback in the NFL playoffs. Since 2013, there have been 283 instances when an NFL quarterback has thrown 20 or more pass attempts in a playoff game; Rodgers’ EPA per dropback (-.76) and dropback success rate (21.2%) against the Texans in the wild-card round rank 283rd.
The Texans’ defense simply flies around. While it’s not quite as simple as rolling the ball out and playing, Houston’s philosophy isn’t that much different! More than any other defense playing now, Houston has the most shared DNA with the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom defenses from a decade ago (which you can even trace from head coach DeMeco Ryans’ time in San Francisco).
Advertisement
On early downs, the Texans use a heavy chunk of zone coverage out of quarters shells, either staying in a Cover 4 looking or rotate down to Cover 3, with a few other looks sprinkled in. They keep things in front of them, and then unleash on pass-catchers and running backs like a horde of zombies (the fast kind) that see a fresh body in front of them. On late downs, it’s primarily Cover 1 (man coverage) and Cover 3 from the Texans. They play iso ball on defense, daring the pass blockers to hold up for longer than three seconds and the quarterback to find something against a defensive back group that turns every passing play into a wrestling schmoz.
The playoffs turn into a hyperfixation of weaknesses because that’s what other teams are trying to exploit. The Texans don’t have many holes to exploit, especially with how little fat their scheme has. For Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, one of those holes is launching throws, especially when he gets some of those single-high coverage shell opportunities.
Because of how aggressive and top-down the entire Texans defense is, it can leave them a little susceptible to deeper targets. On throws of 20 or more air yards, the Texans’ defense ranks 18th in EPA per play. On throws of 20 or fewer air yards, they rank first. It’s splitting hairs (the Texans still rank in the top 10 in terms of success rate), but fighting fire with fire is a way to keep the Texans honest and from teeing off on every other play.
Advertisement
The Patriots’ wide receiver room might not have incredible deep threats like Indianapolis’ Alec Pierce, who had four catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns in Week 18 against the Texans. But they have a quarterback willing to launch it in Maye, and DeMario “Pop” Douglas provides a threat. (The Texans are a tad weaker against slot deep targets, too).
On late downs, the Texans lean more toward playing man coverage and single-high — and thus creating one-on-ones, something Maye has particularly loved to attack this season. Maye ranks fifth in air yards per pass (12) against single-high looks on late downs this season. He also ranks first in EPA per dropback (.53), explosive pass rate (25%), success rate (57%) and net yards per attempt (10.9), with seven rushing first downs on eight scramble attempts for good measure. So, pretty good.
The other side of the ball feels more like a wash, not to discount it because the Texans’ offense has really come into its own since Week 10 and Milton Williams and Christian Barmore are a monster duo in the middle for New England. But Maye against this Texans’ defense is a flamethrower versus flamethrower battle that can leave both sides burned and us, the viewing public, very entertained.
Rams at Bears
Key matchup: Bears’ size at pass-catcher vs. smaller Rams defense
I think the Rams have a clear advantage on offense against the Bears, with …
Advertisement
-
The best run offense in the NFL (and quite literally this century, if using running back success rate as your barometer) vs. a bad run defense, especially when bigger bodies are on the field
-
An amazing power slot in Puka Nacua vs. a defense that’s been bad defending the slot all season
-
And a quarterback in Matthew Stafford who has the arm (and the health, per himself) to throw through any weather issues that crop up in Chicago in January
Having a bevy of tight ends and Davante Adams sure helps, too. The Panthers showed that using add-on pressures (as in, a player adds on or “Green Dogs” to the blitz when a running back protects another defender) is a way to speed up Stafford. Which is something that Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, a coach who doesn’t exactly need his arm twisted to dial up a blitz, might be looking at as a way to fight fire with fire.
On the other side of the ball, it gets really interesting.
Condensed formations (with players packed more tightly to the ball), especially with in-breaking routes, are something that I’ve seen generate big plays against the Rams. The structure of the Rams’ defense, which has moving parts after the snap and tries to stay capped over the offense (think playing top-down or outside-in), can end up being vulnerable to voids over the middle of the field. Especially as they attempt to sort out motions and switch releases at the snap. The Rams allowed the fifth-highest success rate against passes from condensed formations this season while giving up a healthy chunk of explosives and first downs on those plays. The Bears have utilized condensed formations at the third-highest rate this season, behind only the 49ers and Seahawks, divisional opponents that recorded three of the four highest dropback success rates against this Rams defense this season.
Advertisement
Another thing that’s caught my eye with these two units is the sheer size of their players. Los Angeles has a feisty front that is constantly attacking and moving around, sacrificing some size with sheer speed and agility. The Rams also play with a lot of defensive backs, but they (particularly the cornerbacks) are not very big, something that’s showed up recently for this defense. In L.A.’s wild-card matchup, the average weight of the Rams’ defensive backs was listed at 195.2 pounds. The Bears’ top seven pass catchers this season weigh, on average, 226 pounds.
Another offense that features jumbo players at their pass-catcher spots? The Panthers, who were able to hit big plays in both matchups this season against a Rams defense that has consistently ranked high in metrics but has shown to be vulnerable in a few areas. The Panthers’ pass-catchers in the wild-card round averaged 224.8 pounds, and that’s including 174-pound Jimmy Horn Jr. Remove him, and the Panthers threw to wide receivers and tight ends that on average weighed 232 pounds. The smallest (I use that term relatively) listed non-Horn pass catcher for the Panthers were wide receivers Tetairoa McMillan and Brycen Tremayne, both at 212 pounds. The biggest defensive back for the Rams is safety Kamren Kinchens, listed at 207 pounds. The smallest Bears primary pass catcher is 199-pound Olamide Zaccheaus. Then it’s 210-pound Luther Burden III. The Bears feature a big offense.
Time and again, that size came into play for the Panthers. Jalen Coker capped off his strong finish to the season with the best game of his career (he’s in line for a potential breakout in 2026), and McMillan, the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year, also had a good game. They combined for over 200 yards through the air and also had big moments in their first matchup with the Rams.
Advertisement
Size and speed are the core foundation markers of athleticism. As games turn colder and yards are harder to come by, size can be the great equalizer in both the run game and passing game.
Well, that, or some special team shenanigans, the cruel and tragic kind that seem to crop up for both the Rams this season and for the Bears (and their opponents). Especially at Soldier Field.
