With a 3-pointer early in the second half Monday against the Charlotte Hornets, Harden scored his 28,598th career point. The bucket moved him into ninth on the NBA’s all-time scoring list, ahead of Shaquille O’Neal.
“The most dominant big man in the history of the game,” Harden said after the 117-109 win, reflecting on O’Neal. “It’s a true honor. It’s a testament to the work that I put in, and it’s all glory to God.”
Harden moved into the top 10 in December with a free throw against the Orlando Magic, which pushed him ahead of Carmelo Anthony. He entered Monday’s game with 28,582 career points, trailing O’Neal’s tally of 28,596 by just 14. He passed O’Neal in his 1,187th game, slightly ahead of O’Neal’s pace of 1,207 career games played. Harden reached his tally after playing his first three NBA seasons off the bench in Oklahoma City.
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The all-time scoring list does not consider combined NBA and ABA scoring. If ABA scoring is taken into consideration, Julius Irving (30,026 points) and Moses Malone (29,580) round out the top 10, ahead of Harden and O’Neal. Regardless, it’s a remarkable feat, even if Harden’s style of play has earned him a legion of detractors.
In addition to his immense talent and hard work, Harden’s game is very much a product of modern analytics, which doesn’t always produce compelling basketball for viewers. He has generated more than 18,000 of his points from the free-throw line or beyond the 3-point arc, meaning that roughly one-third of his points have come from mid-range or scoring at the basket.
Harden’s detractors would also be quick to point out that he’s one of only two players in the top 10 without an NBA championship; Karl Malone is the other. But while Harden’s reputation for foul baiting doesn’t make for the most aesthetically pleasing form of basketball, it’s certainly effective, as the numbers bear out. There’s no denying that he’s one of the great offensive weapons in the history of the game.
At 36 years old, Harden remains an elite scorer (25.6 ppg) with a chance to move further into the top 10. That said, he’ll be stuck at No. 9 for a while. Next on the list is Wilt Chamberlain, who is nearly 3,000 points ahead of Harden with 31,419.
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Then comes Kevin Durant (31,458 as of Monday), who passed Chamberlain last week for seventh and, like Harden, is showing few signs of slowing down, with 26.1 points per game in his age-37 season.
LeBron James is the only other active player in the top 10. His all-time record of 42,601 points (and counting) is almost certainly out of Harden’s reach.
Less than 30 minutes had elapsed since the clock expired on the Pittsburgh Steelers’ playoff hopes and, perhaps, on Aaron Rodgers’ career.
Less than 30 minutes had passed since the Steelers lost a game so thoroughly that their prized quarterback spent the final 2:39 on the sideline, as a franchise known for its black-and-gold Terrible Towels instead waved a white flag.
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So when Rodgers took the podium to address media and to reflect, he was predictably uninterested in sharing a declaration about his future.
His 21st pro season was complete. He’d played in 17 games, playoffs included, fighting through fractures in his left non-throwing wrist to keep suiting up even as his 42nd birthday came and went. For Monday night, that was enough.
“I’m not going to make any emotional decisions at this point,” Rodgers said after the Steelers’ 30-6 loss to the Texans. “Such a fun year. A lot of adversity, but a lot of fun. Been a great year overall in my life in the last year, and this is a really good part of that, coming here and being a part of this team. So it’s disappointing to be sitting here with the season over.”
As he did following 18 seasons with the Green Bay Packers, the four-time MVP and Super Bowl XLV champion indicated he will take time before making any decisions.
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A darkness retreat may not determine whether it’s time for Rodgers to hang up his cleats. But a clear mind, rather than a playoff loss-tinted one, will assist.
“Just get away,” Rodgers said, “and then have the right conversations.”
Did he consider the possible finality entering Monday’s game?
“I’ve answered this before,” Rodgers responded when asked. “Every game could be my final game.”
So while he lauded Pittsburgh as “a special place,” speculation will continue about whether the Pro Football Hall of Fame committee will begin considering Rodgers for entry in 2030 or not until later.
ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” broadcast crew members, who have met with Rodgers for production meetings this season, indicated their expectations.
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Sideline reporter Lisa Salters said Rodgers answered a question about whether this season was his last with a “probably.” Color analyst and Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman said “I think we are watching Aaron Rodgers’ last game.”
“If I was betting,” Aikman added during the fourth quarter, “I’d say this is the last game we’ll see him play.”
It was a rough season finale for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers on Monday night against the Texans. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
(Cooper Neill via Getty Images)
Texans swarmed Rodgers all night, returning 2 takeaways for touchdowns
The Steelers’ offensive performance against a stingy Houston defense didn’t reflect the caliber of Rodgers’ career in aggregate. But how often do players truly leave on their own terms and at their prime?
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Rodgers has started 279 games, regular-season and playoffs, since the Packers selected him with the 24th overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft.
His 50.8 passer rating Monday night ranked in the bottom 3 percent of his performances, his eighth-least efficient rating and seventh if one were to eliminate the 2023 regular-season opener in which Rodgers dropped back just twice before an Achilles tear ended not only his night but his entire season.
Rodgers completed 17 of 33 pass attempts for 146 yards, no touchdowns and an interception on Monday. He lost another fumble on a strip sack. The opportunistic Texans took both turnovers home.
With 11:34 to play in the fourth quarter, Texans defensive linemen Will Anderson Jr. and Sheldon Rankins swarmed Rodgers for a sack and strip that Rankins returned 33 yards for a touchdown.
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“At some point, they’re going to get a chance when you’re in a lot of one-dimensional passing situations,” Rodgers said. “I feel like we had to slide and chip to at least one of them most of the game, but they’re both All-Pro caliber players.”
Then with 2:52 to play, facing an 18-point deficit, Rodgers knew he needed to try something.
He targeted tight end Pat Freiermuth 16 yards downfield, Texans safety Calen Bullock jumping the route to intercept what could be Rodgers’ final NFL throw.
The 42-year-old quarterback ran after the 22-year-old safety in case he could stymie yet another turnover returned for a touchdown.
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But Texans slot cornerback Jalen Pitre instead pushed Rodgers out of bounds at the 15-yard line to clear his teammate’s path.
That sealed the decision on a night when the Steelers converted just 2 of 14 (14.3%) third-down attempts compared to Houston’s 10 of 15 (66.7%). Rodgers attributed the inefficiency to a bevy of third-and-long plays, problems scattered through Pittsburgh’s plays on first and second downs.
Drops, missed assignments and mental errors abounded, Rodgers said. He was surprised at how different the game execution looked from what he saw during the week at practice. Rodgers absorbed 12 hits and threw four batted passes on a pressure-heavy night. He didn’t attempt a single scramble and the Steelers never found the end zone.
“Against a good defense like this, you’re not going to get many opportunities,” Rodgers said. “When you get them, you got to make the most of them.
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“We just didn’t make the most of any of the little opportunities.”
2025 season may be the finale Rodgers was looking for
With his helmet already ditched in favor of a gray beanie, Rodgers watched the Steelers’ final six plays from the sideline as backup quarterback Mason Rudolph attempted one pass and five handoffs.
Rodgers didn’t express much emotion as he exchanged on-field pleasantries with Texans ranging from coaches and quarterback C.J. Stroud to the defenders who’d wrecked his night. He did not look up at the cheering fans as he crossed the sideline to descend down one set of concrete stairs and up another into the tunnel of Acrisure Stadium.
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Receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling, also a former Packers teammate, patted Rodgers’ back as they walked through the tunnel. As Rodgers entered the antechamber to the Steelers’ locker room, he turned and extended a hand to Valdes-Scantling for a shake and embrace, per footage from network cameras.
Then Rodgers disappeared into the locker room to join a team that head coach Mike Tomlin said didn’t need much in the way of a message.
“It’s not time for talk,” the 19-year Steelers head coach said after Pittsburgh failed to win a playoff game for the ninth straight year. “We agreed that we’ll meet tomorrow and go from there. But when you’re in this single-elimination tournament, man, there’s not a whole lot to talk about.
“You win or you go home.”
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Rodgers may go home and never come back to play in the NFL.
Is this the last time we’ll see Aaron Rodgers in an NFL uniform? (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
(Joe Sargent via Getty Images)
If he does, he’ll retire with an all-time regular-season record of 163-93-1 (.636), a career completion percentage of 65.1% and 66,274 career yards alongside 527 touchdowns to 123 interceptions.
Rodgers played this season as the active leader in passing yardage and passing touchdowns, per Pro Football Reference. He holds the all-time records for interception percentage — 1.4% — and passer rating, at 102.2 across his more than two decades.
One more sign of Rodgers’ longevity: the NFL-record 600 sacks he took.
And while Monday brings Rodgers’ all-time playoff record to 11-11 in starts, his 11 previous postseason runs included seven seasons with at least one win to advance. Following the 2010 season, Rodgers led the Packers to a Super Bowl title over the Steelers franchise he would later join. He wouldn’t go back to the biggest stage — but he’d continue to dominate with league records and accolades more than a decade later.
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So if this season is, indeed, the end for Rodgers, he’s made clear that he’s more comfortable with this finish than that of his two prior seasons with the New York Jets. Rodgers’ lavish praise of the Steelers and Packers on Monday night did not extend to the third franchise for which he played. His parting gift of defenses for Tomlin and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur did not mention anyone who guided him in New York.
Rodgers seemed to set aside many of the distractions that characterized his two Jets seasons as he led the Steelers to 10 wins and the AFC North title while completing 65.7% of his passes for 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
The winning season and playoff eligibility seemed to give Rodgers a sense of peace even if his final act, at least for this season, disappointed. His health comforted him, too.
“I felt good,” Rodgers said. “I think that was the one thing that was the most thankful for, other than the wrist that bothered me the last [half] of the season. I felt pretty healthy all season, so I’m thankful for that.”
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And he was thankful, he said, to play this year for the Steelers.
“I was fortunate to play in an incredible football city for 18 years,” Rodgers said. “And I never took it for granted and enjoyed that time there. And this has been a really beautiful backend to that first 18 to be able to be here for a year.
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🚨 Headlines
🏀 Arizona, UConn still on top:Arizona increased its lead atopthe men’s AP pollafter Michigan finally lost, dropping the Wolverines to No. 4 behind Iowa State and UConn. Onthe women’s side, UConn became the unanimous No. 1 for the first time this season.
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🏈 LSU lands top transfer QB:Former Arizona State QB Sam Leavitthas committed to LSU, giving the Tigers the top-ranked QB in the portal,per On3.Keep up with ourtransfer portal trackeruntil the window closes on Jan. 16.
🏀 WNBA moratorium:The WNBA and its players’ unionagreed to a moratoriumthat will freeze free agency while the two sides continue negotiations around a new collective bargaining agreement.
⚽️ Alonso sacked:In a surprising move, Real Madrid havesacked manager Xabi Alonsoless than a year into his tenure following their loss to Barcelona in the Supercopa de España final. B team manager Álvaro Arbeloa, who played with Alonso at the club, will replace him.
🏁 NASCAR restores format:Starting this year, NASCAR willrevert back to its old playoff format, “The Chase,” wherein the top 16 drivers compete in a 10-race postseason with no eliminations. Whoever has the most points at the end wins the title.
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⛳️ PGA Tour takes direct shot at LIV
(Davis Long/Yahoo Sports)
The PGA Tour-LIV Golf war had been quiet for nearly two years, but it just roared back to life — and the Saudi-backed Tour is now on the receiving end of the existential poaching threat it once dished out.
Driving the news: The Tour has effectively welcomed back Brooks Koepka immediately, albeit at a potential eight-figure cost, and other prominent players could soon follow under the same conditions.
Koepka must personally pay a $5 million charitable donation, and will be unable to access as much as $50 to $85 million in potential earnings through various penalty stipulations.
What he’s saying: “There was no negotiating. It’s meant to hurt, it does hurt, but I understand. It’s not supposed to be an easy path,” Koepka told the AP on Monday. “I’ve got a lot of work to do with some of the players. There’s definitely guys who are happy, and definitely guys who will be angry … If anyone is upset, I need to rebuild those relationships.”
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Who else could follow? New PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp has created the “Returning Member Program,” which is designed to lure the three most notable remaining LIV golfers — Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Cam Smith — to return alongside Koepka. They have until Feb. 2 to decide.
While LIV has always preached the gospel of worldwide international golf, its identity was built (read: paid for) on the star power of its most prominent, major-winning players, starting with Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson, and later, Koepka, Rahm and DeChambeau.
But now, by providing them with a path back to the PGA Tour with a hard deadline, Rolapp is threatening to cut the one thread of potential relevancy LIV Golf has here in America.
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If all three were to leave LIV — or perhaps just DeChambeau — the tour would still certainly continue. It’s built up enough equity on the international circuit, and added enough international players of note, to remain a viable entity. And its financial backer — the Saudi Public Investment Fund — will never lack for cash.
But golf is built on star power, and despite handing out nine-figure checks, Rahm (who joined LIV in 2023) remains the most recent significant addition. The breakaway tour has achieved some successes, but it’s struggled to find ratings and narrative traction in America since Rahm’s much-heralded arrival.
Mickelson’s snub: Returning Member Program eligibility is “limited to players who have been away for at least two years and who won The Players Championship, Masters Tournament, PGA Championship, U.S. Open or The Open Championship between 2022 and 2025.” Notably ineligible: Masters winners like Johnson, Patrick Reed and Mickelson, whose last major win was the PGA Championship in 2021. That 2022 cutoff seems oddly specific, doesn’t it?
🏈 Texans rout Steelers for 10th straight win
(Josh Heim/Yahoo Sports)
The Texans crushed the Steelers, 30-6, on Monday night in Pittsburgh to reach the Divisional Round for the third straight year.
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Defensive clinic: Though the Steelers hung around for three quarters, their offense couldn’t get anything going against Houston’s vaunted defense, which finally took over in the fourth with a pick-six and a scoop-and-score to clinch the blowout.
The Texans not only won their franchise-record 10th straight game, but also notched their first-ever road victory in the postseason.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has now lost seven straight playoff games dating back to the 2017 season, which is two shy of matching the longest such streak ever (Lions, 1992-2017).
Looking ahead: The final eight teams take the field this weekend in Seattle, Chicago, Denver and New England.
49ers (+7.5) at Seahawks: The NFC West foes split the regular-season series, with Seattle winning in Week 18 to earn the No. 1 seed. The Niners, down yet another star player after George Kittle tore his Achilles, have a tall task ahead of them.
Bills (-1) at Broncos: Vegas isn’t high on the Broncos, who are just the third No. 1 seed to be an underdog in the divisional round since it was introduced in 1970. The other two were the 1971 Vikings (lost) and 2017 Eagles (won).
Texans (+3) at Patriots: Either Houston — which, in case you’ve forgotten, started the season 0-3 — will reach their first ever AFC Championship, or New England will reach their first since 2018.
Super Bowl odds: The Seahawks are the current betting favorite to win Super Bowl LX (+300 at BetMGM), followed by the Rams (+320), Bills (+550), Patriots (+600), Broncos (+750), Texans (+850), Bears (+1400) and 49ers (+2000).
⚾️ Tarik vs. the Tigers
(Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Tarik Skubal’s arbitration case is shaping up to be perhaps the most fascinating in the system’s 52-year history.
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$13 million apart: The two-time reigning Cy Young — entering his final year of arbitration eligibility — requested a $32 million salary last week at the deadline to file for arbitration, while the Tigers offered $19 million. That $13 million gap is by far the largest in MLB history.
The $32 million figure requested by Skubal, who earned $10.2 million last season, would break the record for the largest one-year deal for an arbitration-eligible player (Juan Soto, $31M).
Now, unless he and the Tigers reach an unlikely settlement in the coming weeks, it will be up to a panel of independent arbitrators to decide what Skubal’s paycheck looks like this summer.
Arbitration, explained: Players with between three and six years of MLB service time are eligible for salary arbitration, wherein the player and team both file a salary figure for the upcoming season. They can continue negotiating and avoid arbitration if they reach a settlement, but otherwise they head to a formal hearing.
At the hearing, each side has one hour to present their case to a three-person panel, as well as 30 minutes for rebuttal. Those arguments are generally comp-driven, based on what players with similar age, service time and performance have earned in the past.
Then it’s up to the arbitrators to decide one number or the other — no middle ground. If they think the player is worth even $1 more than the mid-point of the two numbers, they’ll choose his salary request; if they think he’s worth $1 less, they’ll choose the team’s proposal.
The wrinkle in Skubal’s case: Though Skubal will almost certainly fetch more than $32 million annually when he hits the open market this fall as a free agent, the Tigers will be hoping the arbitrators stick to precedent when making their decision, as $32 million would shatter the record for biggest arbitration salary for a starting pitcher ($19.75M to David Price in 2015). His $22 million increase in salary would also shatter the record for biggest arbitration raise ($9.6M for Jacob deGrom in 2019).
Skubal’s precedent-breaking strategy, on the other hand, hinges on a pair of provisions in the CBA that provide a boost to arbitration-eligible players with more than five years of service time and any “special accomplishments” like setting records or winning awards.
In other words, the back-to-back AL Cy Young winner is uniquely suited to argue for this record-breaking sum after going 31-10 across the last two seasons with a sterling 2.30 ERA, 469 strikeouts and just 68 walks.
Between the lines: Skubal, a Scott Boras client, won’t sign an extension this close to free agency. And at this point, particularly after what could be an acrimonious arbitration hearing in early February, Detroit may be more likely to trade than retain him. If they’re heading in that direction, a lower salary will increase Skubal’s trade value, which could explain the Tigers’ lowball offer.
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💯 Big numbers
(Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
🏒 19 games
Connor McDavid extended his career-best point streak to 19 games on Monday with two assists in Edmonton’s 4-1 win over Chicago. He has 44 points during the streak (19 goals, 25 assists) to give him 80 on the season, one shy of Nathan MacKinnon for the NHL lead.
Elite company: McDavid becomes just the fourth player in NHL history to record 10 consecutive 80-point seasons, joining Wayne Gretzky, Dale Hawerchuk and Phil Esposito.
🎓 $127 million
NIL Go cleared $127 million in deals through its first six months of operation, the College Sports Commission announced Monday. The clearinghouse, operated by Deloitte, launched in June following approval of the House settlement.
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Athlete breakdown: The 17,845 deals submitted to NIL Go between June 11 and December 31 came from nearly 11,000 unique athletes across 40 different sports, the CSC said. 44% of those athletes play a sport other than football or men’s basketball.
(Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
🏀 28,614 points
James Harden moved into ninth place on the NBA’s all-time scoring list during Monday’s win over the Hornets, overtaking Shaquille O’Neal. He passed him in his 1,187th game, slightly ahead of Shaq’s pace of 1,207 career games played.
Looking ahead: At 36 years old, Harden remains an elite scorer (25.6 ppg) with a chance to move further into the top 10. That said, he’ll be stuck at No. 9 for a while. Next on the list is Wilt Chamberlain, who is nearly 3,000 points ahead of him with 31,419.
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🏈 17th season
Matthew Stafford is the second player in NFL history to be named a first-team All-Pro for the first time in his 17th season or later. He joins longtime kicker Gary Anderson, who was also named to the first team in his 17th season, in 1998.
In terms of QBs? Before Stafford, the longest wait for a quarterback was Fran Tarkenton, who was an All-Pro for the first time in his 15th season, in 1975.
📺 Watchlist: Tuesday, Jan. 13
Wemby shoots over a pair of defenders in their first matchup this season. (Steve Marcus/Getty Images)
🏀 Spurs at Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the first-place Thunder host Victor Wembanyama and the second-place Spurs tonight (8pm ET, NBC) in a potential Western Conference Finals preview.
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OKC’s kryptonite: Though the Thunder (33-7) remain 5.5 games clear of the Spurs (27-12), San Antonio has won all three meetings so far this season. Yes, the Spurs are responsible for nearly half of OKC’s losses.
More to watch:
🏒 NHL: Red Wings at Bruins(7:30pm, TNT); Stars at Ducks(10pm, TNT)… Detroit (28-15-4) is second in the East and Dallas (27-10-9) is second in the West.
🏀 NCAAM: No. 16 Virginia at No. 20 Louisville(7pm, ESPN2); No. 2 Iowa State at Kansas(9pm, ESPN); No. 3 UConn at No. 25 Seton Hall(8pm, truTV)… Undefeated Iowa State has its highest ranking in program history.
⛳️ TGL: Jupiter Links vs. New York(7pm, ESPN)… Akshay Bhatia, Max Homa and Kevin Kisner vs. Rickie Fowler, Matt Fitzpatrick and Cameron Young.
⚽️ EFL Cup: Newcastle vs. Manchester City(3pm, Paramount+)… Semifinal.
Trivia answer: Allen (Wyoming), Darnold (USC), Maye (UNC), Nix (Auburn and Oregon), Stafford (Georgia), Purdy (Iowa State), Stroud (Ohio State), Williams (Oklahoma and USC)
We hope you enjoyed this edition of Yahoo Sports AM, our daily newsletter that keeps you up to date on all things sports. Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox every weekday morning.
It feels like just yesterday that much of the NBA-discussing world was wondering whether the Oklahoma City Thunder were not only about to smash the league’s all-time record for wins in a single season, but whether the defending NBA champions’ two-way dominance had become so all-consuming and so inescapable that it would lead even teams with title aspirations of their own to just punt on the pursuit.
It feels like just yesterday, but it wasn’t. It was in the Long, Long Ago of Three Weeks Back. The Before Time — the era when the gravest crisis in Oklahoma City was the Thunder losing a second game, this one to a just-returned alien.
Wins are wins; you don’t have to apologize for taking them where they come, and the Thunder deserve credit for righting the ship with three straight victories heading into Tuesday’s eagerly anticipated rematch with San Antonio. They aren’t all created equally, though — and barely avoiding another couple of slip-ups hasn’t done tons to quell the concerns of those now wondering how what had previously looked like such a historic team can suddenly look so humble.
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Thunder swingman Jalen Williams offered a pretty balanced take on that following the narrow escape against Utah:
“I think everything’s about perspective,” Williams said. “This is going to sound cocky, but the last three years, we win so much that when we have a normal, human stretch of losing a game or two that we shouldn’t have lost, the world freaks out. […] Like, we’re not superheroes. We have human moments. We get physically and mentally tired throughout the season. And I feel like that kind of showed, just in that stretch, and that’s something that we just get to work on, get better with.”
It’s a dramatic shift in tone from the “Are they going to win 75 games???” talk that some of us engaged in, but the man’s got some points. (And, to be fair: It’s not like he was the one putting the 2025-26 Thunder next to the 2015-16 Warriors.)
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Since the start of the 2023-24 season, nobody has more wins (158) or a higher winning percentage (.775) than Oklahoma City. When a team wins more than three-fourths of the time, there aren’t exactly a whole lot of opportunities to get used to it losing consecutive games — which the Thunder have done twice in the last few weeks after doing it twice all of last season — let alone experiencing an extended stretch of malaise. When you’re accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression; when you’re accustomed to a 60- or 70-win pace, .500 ball feels like a crisis.
NBA Cup hangover?
The “physically and mentally tired” thing might have some legs. On this week’s episode of The Big Number, Tom Haberstroh and I looked into whether teams, like the Thunder, that make the semifinals of the NBA Cup experience a “hangover” in the weeks following their trips to Las Vegas …
… and while the sample size is still small, the number of games those Vegas teams have played lately isn’t. Sunday’s win over the Heat marked Oklahoma City’s 14th game in 25 days since the end of the tournament — a stretch that has included four back-to-backs. Nine NBA teams have played 14 games in that span, including all four semifinalists (the Knicks, Spurs, Thunder and Magic), with a combined record of 63-63 — a .500 winning percentage. By contrast, the 11 teams that have played 12 or fewer games in that same timeframe have gone 69-61 — a .531 winning percentage.
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Your mileage may vary on just how much you think a couple of extra games’ worth of miles over a couple of weeks add up. It might show up, though, in the legs on your jumper, where a Thunder team that was splashing 38.1% of its 3-point shots through its 24-1 start, fifth-best in the NBA, has dropped down to 31.2% since its NBA Cup semifinal loss, third-worst in the league in that span.
It’s been a contagious cold snap for a Thunder offense that ranked fourth in offensive efficiency through 25 games and has dropped to 13th since, with rotation mainstays Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe all shooting well below or just above 40% from the field over the past three-plus weeks, and SGA, J-Dub, Wallace, Wiggins and Alex Caruso all under or barely over 30% from 3-point land.
Injury issues
The absence of starting center Isaiah Hartenstein, who’s missed the last eight games with a right calf strain, hurts, too. With him on the floor, the Thunder grab offensive rebounds at a top-10 rate. With him on the sideline, they perform like the worst offensive rebounding team in the league — a particular bummer when there are more misses to corral than there used to be. (OKC dropping from a top-five defensive rebounding team through its 24-1 start to 18th in clearing the defensive boards during this lull hasn’t helped, either.)
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Some of those misses have been coming off the right hand of Williams, who began his ascent as Gilgeous-Alexander’s running buddy two seasons ago and cemented himself as a cornerstone in his own right last season, earning All-Star, All-NBA and All-Defensive honors and authoring an iconic 40-point performance in the NBA Finals to help propel the Thunder to the championship. After missing the first 19 games of the season rehabilitating following offseason surgery on his right wrist, though, Williams has struggled to recover his shooting touch.
Williams’ accuracy is down from midrange and beyond the arc, contributing to a true shooting percentage of .544, which would be the worst mark of his four-year NBA career. It’s also one of the worst among high-volume offensive players in the league thus far this season: Of the 55 players this season who’ve played at least 500 minutes and have a usage rate of 25% or higher, Williams’ TS% ranks 49th — ahead of only Jordan Poole, Shaedon Sharpe, Brandon Miller, Jeremiah Fears, Russell Westbrook and Ja Morant.
It seems reasonable to give Williams a little bit of grace amid his shooting slump, considering it’s only been six weeks since he came back from surgery to repair an injury that literally forced him to re-learn how to shoot the basketball, and that he’s trying to get back to full speed without the benefit of training camp or preseason. A player using that many possessions that inefficiently does have an impact on your offense, though: The Thunder are scoring like a just-above-league-average unit in J-Dub’s minutes, and at a bottom-five rate in the minutes he’s played without Gilgeous-Alexander.
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‘It’s a competitive privilege’
Another place that the additional post-Cup workload could show up? Execution in close-and-late situations.
“It’s a competitive privilege to be a team that other teams are up to play for,” Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault said last week, according to Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman. “And it forces you to rise to that. And if you can, you really can get better and stronger as a result of that. And if you don’t, you learn the lesson. We got to learn the lessons in these ones.”
One of the lessons Williams has taken from this uncommon glitch in Oklahoma City’s unnervingly efficient opponent-mashing machine? Life in the NBA isn’t always so smooth.
“Every team this year has lost a couple of games that they wish they could have back,” he said last week. “We understand that it’s just like: How many of those can you limit during the season? And how much better can you get because of it?”
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The prospect of the Thunder getting better — by getting Hartenstein (and backup big Jaylin Williams, who returned Sunday after missing the previous 13 games with right heel bursitis) back in the fold, by thawing out those frosty jumpers, by doing a better job of finishing possessions — ought to be a scary one, considering they’re still, even in this somewhat diminished form, good enough to beat anyone on any night. (Well, maybe not anyone.)
What three weeks of hiccups have made clear, though, is that they’re not dominant enough to beat everyone on every night, irrespective of who’s in or out of the lineup. Especially when the price of wearing the crown is taking every team’s best shot, without a breather in sight or any quarter given.
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“You can’t be at a playoff level every single night in the NBA,” Caruso recently told Joel Lorenzi of The Athletic. “You’ll burn out. There’s no way for you to play like that for 82 games.”
Combine that with the vicissitudes of 3-point variance and the injury gods, and sometimes — even multiple times — even Goliath can get got.
Today’s article answers the question: Who were really the most valuable players in fantasy this season? Fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through the top fantasy “WAR” players of 2025, aka “Wins Above Replacement” (via Fantasy Points Data). The notorious baseball statistic can also help identify the kings of fantasy football.
Quarterback
WAR MVP: Josh Allen (3.71 Wins Above Replacement)
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Josh Allen has finished as a top-two QB in fantasy football for six consecutive seasons. To show just how incredible that is, Jalen Hurts is the next closest with two such seasons! Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes each have done it only once over the last six years. Allen can win any fantasy week by himself, scoring 35+ fantasy points three separate times this season. His rushing boost will rarely result in bad weeks, making him easily the No. 1 QB taken off the board next season. In Yahoo leagues, Allen has only been drafted first two times in those six seasons. Don’t make that mistake again.
Top-5 QB Finishes
Drake Maye, Patriots (2.90)
Matthew Stafford, Rams (2.81)
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (2.49)
Dak Prescott, Cowboys (2.43)
Running Back
WAR MVP: Christian McCaffrey (6.47 Wins Above Replacement)
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McCaffrey’s fantasy result has been a consistent cycle: finish top-two, get hurt, repeat. The average draft position has usually been lower during his elite, healthy seasons. He was the seventh player off the board in 2025 and scored 15+ half-PPR points in 14 of 16 games. And don’t worry, it continued with 26.4 points versus Philadelphia in the playoffs.
The injuries are truly the only thing keeping McCaffrey from repeating again in 2026. San Francisco battled through injuries, and McCaffrey’s rushing efficiency was nowhere close to overall RB1 status. In pure yards per carry, CMC ranked 38th of qualified RBs. However, with Kyle Shanahan as the coach and the receiving capabilities of McCaffrey, the efficiency on the ground is much less of an issue. The Niners RB led the position in routes, targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, and nobody would be surprised if he does once again in 2026.
Top-5 RB Finishes
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (6.47)
Bijan Robinson, Falcons (5.58)
Jonathan Taylor, Colts (5.44)
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (4.81)
De’Von Achane, Dolphins (4.70)
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Wide Receiver
WAR MVP: Puka Nacua (4.19 Wins Above Replacement)
The chemistry with Matthew Stafford, a QB who force-feeds top WRs, paid off in full this season for Puka Nacua. Even as a downfield WR, Nacua was targeted 166 times and had the highest catch rate of any WR with 150+ targets since Michael Thomas in 2019 (2nd-highest of 42 WRs in that span) with the Saints. Much like Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs in 2024, when a key counterpart goes down with injury, in a key part of the fantasy season, stars become league-winners. In the final five games with a banged-up Davante Adams on the sideline, Nacua averaged 26.1 half-PPR fantasy PPG — over seven more than any other WR.
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Top-5 WR Finishes
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks (4.15)
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (2.95)
George Pickens, Cowboys (2.92)
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals (2.89)
Tight End
WAR MVP: Trey McBride (3.53 Wins Above Replacement)
Trey McBride is now in talks for 2026 first-round consideration after averaging 15.2 fantasy PPG this season and breaking the TE record for receptions. The last TE to be drafted in the first round was Travis Kelce in 2023 after averaging 15.9 fantasy PPG in 2022. The main question related to McBride will be about his scoring nearly 2x more PPG with Jacoby Brissett than he did with Kyler Murray. With so much up in the air in Arizona this offseason, McBride will have more risks than most former TE1s, similar to Brock Bowers this year.
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Top-5 TE Finishes
Trey McBride, Cardinals (3.53)
George Kittle, 49ers (1.66)
Dallas Goedert, Eagles (1.49)
Brock Bowers, Raiders (1.48)
Tucker Kraft, Packers (1.22)
Key Takeaways
The top six players in this stat are running backs. The positional value stays king in fantasy football, as they have the highest ceiling with much less depth compared to WR and QB. Even after the top players in fantasy, some of the top values in the late rounds of drafts came at the RB position, too. Javonte Williams and Travis Etienne Jr., both drafted in the 30s of RB ADP, finished above the WR3 Amon-Ra St. Brown in WAR.
When it comes to QB, yes, Josh Allen is the safe QB star, but ultimately, the late-round QB stays king. Allen finished 10th in WAR while Drake Maye (19th), Matthew Stafford (22nd), Dak Prescott (26th) and Trevor Lawrence (27th) all destroyed their late-round ADPs.
With their team trailing by 16 points with 1:57 to play, Toronto Raptors fans knew Tuesday’s contest against the Philadelphia 76ers was over. Knowing that game was already decided, the fans made a last-ditch effort to pay respect to a former franchise icon … and it worked.
With the game in hand, Raptors fans chanted for 76ers guard Kyle Lowry to get some playing time. Philadelphia coach Nick Nurse granted their wishes, subbing Lowry into the contest with just under two minutes to go.
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Raptors fans loved the moment, giving Lowry a standing ovation as he took the court for the first time all night.
Lowry, 39, had a huge smile on his face the entire time. He waved and acknowledged the fans and put his hand over his heart to pay tribute to them. Lowry’s 76ers teammates also appreciated the moment and were spotted smiling and clapping for the veteran.
After the contest — which the 76ers won 115-102 — Lowry called the scene, “One of the greatest basketball moments of my personal career.”
While Lowry developed into a solid player in his first six seasons in the NBA, his career really took off after joining the Toronto Raptors ahead of the 2012-13 NBA season. The following year, Lowry stepped up his game, turning the Raptors into a surprising contender.
That surge kicked off quite the run for Lowry, who made the next six All-Star games and earned down-ballot MVP votes during the 2015-16 season. Lowry was also one of the main contributors on the 2018-19 Raptors team that won the NBA championship. His success, combined with the team’s title, made Lowry a legend in Toronto.
Following the 2020-21 NBA season, a then-34-year-old Lowry left the Raptors to sign with the Miami Heat. He was traded to the 76ers a few years later and remains a bench piece for the team.
Lowry hasn’t appeared in many contests this season. The 39-year-old has seen time in just six games and is averaging under 10 minutes per contest when he gets opportunities.
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Lowry is clearly near the end of his career. While it’s unclear how many more chances he’ll get to prove himself on the court, Monday’s appearance is one that will clearly stick with him forever.
The High Score 100 — the top 100 players in Yahoo’s newest fantasy basketball format — is a running reflection of year-to-date performance and trending production. Each weekly update captures who’s actually delivering value and who’s fading.
Here’s a breakdown of the biggest risers and fallers through the 12th week of fantasy basketball — with the complete High Score 100 at the bottom of the article. I’ll be updating my rankings every Tuesday throughout the fantasy basketball season.
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📈 The Risers: Breakthrough players shining
Player
Team
Previous Rank
Current Rank
Rank Change
1.
Trey Murphy III
NOP
53
43
+10
2.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
ATL
74
65
+9
3.
Michael Porter Jr.
BKN
39
31
+8
Trey Murphy III – FC, New Orleans Pelicans: 43rd overall (⬆️ 10)
Murphy has been going off since the flip of the calendar, averaging 31.3 points, 7 rebounds and 4.5 assists in his last four games. He was a top-10 player in Week 12, posting 51.9 fantasy points per game and a High Score of 63.
Opposing teams interested in Murphy will have to pay a hefty price in real life and fantasy because he’s on a heater right now, and his value couldn’t be higher. For the year, Murphy ranks 48th, but I’m bumping him up a bit higher now that he’s been playing more aggressively while flirting with becoming the 1A option in New Orleans.
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker – G/FC, Atlanta Hawks: 65th overall (⬆️ 9)
Trae Young has been traded to Washington, enhancing NAW’s ceiling for the rest of the season. Walker has provided fantasy managers with 50+ fantasy points in High Score over the past two weeks as he continues to deliver a mix of points, rebounds, assists and steals. He’s enjoying a career year, averaging more than 20 points per game, and with Trae gone, he’ll continue to play north of 33 minutes per night. His rise from 74 to 65 is driven by his recent performance (top-50 over the last two weeks) and the trade, which secured his minutes and role moving forward.
Michael Porter Jr. – FC, Brooklyn Nets: 31st overall (⬆️ 8)
MPJ is too successful to be considered a Most Improved Player, but the numbers he’s putting up in Brooklyn are getting out of hand. Porter is averaging over 51 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks, ranking in the top-12 in High Score. The former Nugget is making a strong case for his first All-Star bid with career-highs in points, rebounds and assists. He’s the hub of Brooklyn’s offense, and it shows by his bump in scoring from 18.2 to 25.9 this year, along with his underrated playmaking.
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Teams have been calling about MPJ’s availability ahead of the trade deadline and the Nets could fetch a decent return for him given the way he’s playing. However, for fantasy, managers will want him to stay in BK, where he’ll continue seeing a 30% usage rate and shoot any shot he wants. He could legitimately finish as a top-25 player.
Welcome back, Bam. It’s his second consecutive week on the fallers list because his offense is nowhere to be found. Bam’s slide continues as the Heat stagger through January with a 2-4 record through Monday. He’s been playing poorly since he went out with a back injury in Week 10. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, it looks like he doesn’t have the same lift or burst that we’re used to seeing. He’s also a guy who doesn’t make excuses and plays through injuries, as seen by him playing in at least 69 games in six of his nine seasons.
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It’s your choice if you want to weather the storm. It just doesn’t look like Bam is going to turn this around without time off. He hasn’t registered a 40-point fantasy performance in over a month and hasn’t scored 20 in a game since Dec. 15.
LaVine slips slightly from 85 to 92 as he remains part of the disaster that is the Sacramento Kings. For the season, LaVine ranks 118th in High Score after averaging 30.2 fantasy points per game. I still have him in my top 100 because he’s capable of a spike game each week. Still, it’s getting harder to justify keeping him there because, over his last five games since returning from a nine-game absence, his minutes have been anywhere from 28 to 37 a night. The rotation is a mess — plus, the Kings are actively shopping him, DeMar DeRozan and likely every other vet not named Keegan Murray.
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LaVine is still talented, it’s just tricky to extract much value outside of his scoring in an environment like Sacramento.
OG Anunoby – FC, New York Knicks: 90th overall (⬇️ 6)
The High Score format kind of shields OG’s inconsistency. While he’s posted 40+ point fantasy outings over the past two weeks, he’s averaging just 31 fantasy points per game over his last seven games. Most fantasy managers need a higher output to win their week. Anunoby is a player who makes for a solid spot start on a lighter slate, but it’s hard to trust him every game knowing that, in a crowded frontcourt, he can post some duds. OG is still in the top 100; I just don’t love the upside in High Score unless another Knicks starter gets injured.
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Complete High Score 100 rankings
The High Score 100 is a running reflection of year-to-date performance and trending production.
The top player in High Score (and across all formats), Nikola Jokić, remains out with a hyperextended knee. Even though he’ll be out for multiple weeks, he’s far and away the best fantasy player in High Score. He’s the only player averaging north of 70 fantasy points per game and since his injury isn’t expected to keep him out long term, he should still be the No. 1 overall pick if drafting a team right now.
Three years ago, Ja Morant was the most electric guard the NBA had seen since Allen Iverson and the Grizzlies seemed like the NBA’s next great contender. But after a bizarre string of gun incidents and a long list of injuries, Ja is now a distressed asset being discussed like an albatross contract, not a franchise cornerstone.
Morant had his flaws even during his back-to-back All-Star seasons with iffy defense, a shaky jumper and good but not outstanding passing. Those skills have regressed since. And as speedy as he is, he hasn’t quite learned how to fully utilize that to his advantage because he lollygags up the floor or record-scratches plays in the half-court. For a player who’s so fast, he often moves slow.
Ja Morant’s time in Memphis appears to be coming to a close. (Petre Thomas-Imagn Images)
(IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / REUTERS)
To make matters worse, Morant has been less willing to use his athleticism to score at the rim, in part to protect himself from hard falls and further injuries. Over his first 12 games this season, he was getting to the rim at a career-low rate. Only 18% of his shots came in the restricted area and 31% of his shots came from 3-point range. But he shot 3s horribly; at one point, he had more air balls than he had made baskets. Morant’s burst was gone and he was being dared to shoot jumpers, before a suspension for throwing his coach under the bus and a calf strain knocked him out for a month.
Since his return, he’s played in only six games as he’s still managing the calf injury. But he had a 40-point game, his numbers are way up, and he looks more like the past version of himself:
Morant is taking 36% of his shots at the rim and only 17% of his shots from 3. That’s aligned with his shot distribution during his two All-Star seasons. And his scoring efficiency is separated by only decimal points from that peak as well. It’s a teeny-tiny sample of just six games, but it’s at least one positive data point in a season otherwise full of red flags. And that glimmer of hope might be all a team really needs to go for it.
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Morant is making $39.5 million this season and then will make $43.5 million annually over the next two seasons. It’s a big chunk of the salary cap for a player who’s played in only 77 of his last 203 possible games.
NBA sources don’t expect Morant’s market to be too much different than it was for Trae Young, who was dealt to the Wizards for just an expiring contract in CJ McCollum and a solid role player in Corey Kispert. But the Hawks preferred short-term or expiring deals. Memphis is taking the opposite approach: Executives around the league say the Grizzlies are signaling a willingness to take on bad contracts, if it means being compensated with young players or picks. But the Grizzlies aren’t going to get that much for Morant. Think pick swaps, not unprotected firsts. Think moderate bets on rookie contracts, not exciting young players. Even getting those assets might require Memphis to take on bad money in return.
There are only three kinds of Ja buyers: stuck-in-the-middle teams hunting a shortcut, desperate franchises and gamblers that think their structure can fix any talent. With that in mind, here are six trade ideas:
Why they do it: The Kings are stuck in the mud and they know it. And they need a star. Plus, they’re so early in their rebuild that they can afford to whiff. If they hit a home run they’ll look like geniuses for getting Ja for so cheap. Who knows? Morant could benefit from being around a guy like Russell Westbrook. Maybe it’s worth it for SacTown.
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Why they don’t: Swapping out an old veteran who shows up for a young veteran who often doesn’t may not be the best way to build culture. And though Carter has struggled so far in his career, he’s still only in his second year — just like Tyrese Haliburton was when he got dealt. Giving up Carter, and any future draft capital, could simply end up a loss on a risky investment.
Why they do it: Phoenix is 29th in at-rim frequency. The team needs someone who can actually collapse a defense. Ja played his best ball next to Dillon Brooks, and Brooks is currently the heart of this surging Suns team. Maybe he’d help him tap into a new chapter of his prime again.
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Why they don’t: Green is younger and cheaper, and for a team that’s already short on assets it may not make any sense to give up on any unless it’s more of a sure thing.
Morant and Dillon Brooks were teammates in Memphis. Could they reunite in Phoenix? (Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)
(NBAE via Getty Images)
Raptors get: Ja Morant
Grizzlies get: Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick, one first-round pick swap
Why they do it: The Raptors were already in on the Trae Young sweepstakes, so maybe they’d be willing to go for Morant too. They’re in need of another creator to take the pressure off Scottie Barnes. The Kawhi Leonard swing also showed this franchise will rent volatility if the upside is real.
Why they don’t: The fit is a disaster. The best version of Ja lives in the paint. But so does Scottie. Neither is a knockdown shooter. Trae made some sense because of his perimeter-oriented game, but Morant doesn’t.
Bucks get: Ja Morant
Grizzlies get: Kyle Kuzma, Bobby Portis, two first-round pick swaps
Why they do it: The Giannis Antetokounmpo era might have four months left. Adding Ja is the ultimate Hail Mary to convince Giannis that they are still trying to win. And if Ja does return to form, this could be the gamble that pays off and gives Giannis a teammate who can actually generate any offense.
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Why they don’t: You’re trading for a shaky shooter who has played in only 38% of his games over the last three seasons. If Giannis leaves anyway, you’re stuck paying Ja to lead a 20-win team in an empty arena.
Heat get: Ja Morant
Grizzlies get: Terry Rozier, Simone Fontecchio, two first-round pick swaps
Why they do it: This is Pat Riley saying “I can fix him.” They ship out Rozier’s expiring contract and gambling-investigation headache for a guy who was All-NBA just a few years ago.
Why they don’t: Sending a guy with Morant’s habits to South Beach seems like a horrible idea. Plus, the Heat run an offense influenced by Noah LaRoche, the same guy who inspired the no-screens offense that Ja hated and led to the Grizzlies coaching staff getting fired less than one year ago.
Wolves get: Ja Morant, Jock Landale, Scotty Pippen, Vincent Williams
Grizzlies get: Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, Mike Conley, Joan Beringer, 2032 swap
Why they do it: As Andrew Sharp said on my podcast: This trade is “the best construction of what might still be a bad idea.” You raise your ceiling with Morant, Pippen as a versatile guard, Landale as a hard-nosed big man, and Williams as a versatile wing. This is a gamble that Ja can return close to form, but also a reshuffling of the supporting cast around the big three of Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert.
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Why they don’t: Ja’s salary would require a big shake-up to the roster to make any deal work financially. Chemistry could collapse midseason. Plus, Morant could step on Ant’s toes. Edwards would ideally have a co-star in the backcourt that can thrive without the ball, like Conley and DiVincenzo do. So rather than bet the whole franchise on Ja’s availability, a bet that has failed for three years running, going for just Pippen or another mid-level point guard who can shoot could be far more sensible.
You can talk yourself into other teams as a Ja suitor. Maybe the Nets just want to take the risk. Maybe the Cavs want a shake-up from Darius Garland. Maybe the Bulls want to replace Coby White. But it’s a lot easier to talk yourself out of Morant for any of these aforementioned teams, given the way his career has unfolded and where it appears likely to go from here.
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History is littered with these types of “distressed asset” superstars. Most of them aren’t still just 26 years old though. But Morant’s story is starting to feel like the speed-run version of the Iverson career arc. Once A.I. was traded from Denver to Detroit at age 33, it was suddenly apparent that it was already over. Small guards can hit a cliff fast when the body begins to fail. So even if there’s a chance Ja has more left in the tank, there’s a far higher probability that the team trading for him is just taking a massive loss on the investment.
Some fixer-uppers are worth the risk, though. The Bucks might be that desperate. The Heat might be that confident. The Wolves might be that ballsy. All it takes is one owner to think he’s getting a franchise-changing asset for 12 cents on the dollar and ignore the possibility that Ja may have already hit the Iverson-in-Detroit phase.
Tony Stewart will make his first Truck Series start in over 20 years in February. (Photo by Will Lester/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Tony Stewart is returning to NASCAR.
Kaulig Racing announced Tuesday that the three-time Cup Series champion would drive for the team in the season-opening Truck Series race at Daytona on Feb. 13.
Kaulig is the anchor team for RAM’s NASCAR return. The automaker is joining the Truck Series for the 2026 season as the series will have four manufacturers for the first time since Dodge was last in the series in 2016. Stewart, whose NHRA team fields Dodges, will be one of many rotating drivers set to appear in one of Kaulig’s five trucks this season.
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Stewart, 54, hasn’t driven in a NASCAR race since he retired at the end of the 2016 season. Stewart missed the first eight races of the season that year after a back injury while riding a dune buggy but made the playoffs thanks to a win at Sonoma. He finished 15th in the standings.
It’ll be the first Truck Series appearance for Stewart in over 20 years. He’s made six career Truck Series starts and his last came in 2005, when he had one top-five finish in two starts. He’s won two of those starts — both were at Richmond in the early 2000s.
Stewart is infamously one of the most successful drivers to never win a Daytona 500, but he’s had plenty of success at the track even though he never won NASCAR’s biggest race. He won the summer Cup Series race at the track four times and seven of his 11 career Xfinity Series wins came in the season-opening race at Daytona.
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After filling in for his wife Leah Pruett for his Tony Stewart Racing team in the NHRA’s Top Fuel division in 2025, Stewart will compete against his wife in 2026. Pruett returns to the car after the couple had their first child, and Stewart will compete full-time for Elite Motorsports.
The first weekend of the NFL playoffs was wildly entertaining, and not too bad for bettors.
Over the first two days of the playoffs, the three teams to get more than 60% of the bets at BetMGM were the Bears, 49ers and Patriots. All three teams covered. The Bears made it interesting, falling behind 21-3 before coming all the way back to win and cover as a small favorite.
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are coming off a dramatic road win at the Jaguars. (Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)
(Logan Bowles via Getty Images)
We’re down to four games for the divisional round, so let’s take a look at the top betting storylines with all odds from BetMGM:
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Broncos become favorites
The week began with the betting market liking the Buffalo Bills to pick up another road playoff win. They were 1-point favorites at the Denver Broncos. That changed.
By Tuesday morning, the favorite had flipped. The Broncos are now 1-point favorites at BetMGM. That could change again before kickoff. The Bills have been a popular pick to go deep in the playoffs due to having Josh Allen, the best quarterback remaining in the field. Later in the week, when more casual bettors get involved, the Bills could get more action.
The Bills are in a tough spot though. The Broncos are coming off a bye as the No. 1 seed, and the Bills are playing on short rest, getting the Saturday game after beating Jacksonville this past Sunday. Denver also has a big home-field advantage due to the altitude. That’s why they got betting action early in the week.
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The Bills have been favored in all but two games: Week 9 vs. the Chiefs and last week against the Jaguars. The Bills won both of those games straight up.
Seahawks are a big favorite
The 49ers got unnecessarily stuck with short rest. Instead of the NFL having the Bears and Rams, who both won Saturday, play on Saturday in the divisional round, the league put that game on Sunday. That meant the 49ers, who played on Sunday in the Eastern time zone, have to play on a short turnaround against a Seahawks team that had the bye.
The line reflects that and also another key 49ers injury, this one to George Kittle. The Seahawks are 7.5-point favorites. That line moved above a touchdown; it opened at Seattle -6.5. The Seahawks just beat the 49ers 13-3 in Week 18, and that dominant win is reflected in this week’s point spread. The Seahawks were 2.5-point favorites in that game on the road, so it’s not totally surprising to see the line for a game in Seattle be about a touchdown.
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Texans a small underdog
The question for the Houston Texans’ game at the New England Patriots was whether the Patriots would be favored by a field goal or more. They were not. The Texans are a 2.5-point favorite, even with receiver Nico Collins’ status in the air after suffering a concussion on Monday night. Given that it’s his second concussion of the season and the Texans have one less day of rest than normal, it seems unlikely Collins will play.
The reason the Texans are getting less than a field goal is obvious. Their defense is fantastic. It has led the team to 10 straight wins, including Monday night at Pittsburgh. The total is 40.5, and that seems a bit high for any Texans game.
Bears getting more than a field goal
The Bears have lived on the edge most of the season, but keep pulling out wins. Their ability to win close games hasn’t affected the point spread for this week.
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The Rams are 3.5-point road favorites at Chicago. That line has moved a couple of times, from 4.5 to 4 and now close to a field goal. The Rams have been viewed as one of the best teams in the NFL this season, but they barely beat the Panthers last week. That, and the Bears continuing to pick up wins in dramatic ways, has more action going Chicago’s way early in the week.
NFC West teams still atop Super Bowl odds
The Seahawks are the favorites to win Super Bowl LX, but it’s close. They’re +300 to win it all, and the Rams are right behind them at +320. Even though the Bills won’t play another home game this season and aren’t currently favored to win this week, they’re the AFC team with the shortest Super Bowl odds at +550.
There are only two teams with longer than 10-to-1 odds. The Bears are +1400 to win it all and the 49ers are last in the odds at +2000.
