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Let’s be honest: The final game of the NFL season isn’t the greatest matchup.

The Baltimore Ravens are 8-8 and one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers are just 9-7 and have been inconsistent all season, including last week when they lost to the Browns as favorites, with a chance to clinch the AFC North. Now the Steelers host the Ravens in the final game of the regular season on Sunday night, with the winner getting the AFC North title and the loser headed to the offseason.

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While we’ve seen better Ravens-Steelers matchups, not many have had more drama attached.

The future of the losing coach will be questioned (maybe the winning coach too, depending on what happens in the playoffs). It could be Aaron Rodgers’ final game in the NFL. There will be a lot of criticism of Steelers receiver DK Metcalf for getting himself suspended for the final two games of the season if that costs Pittsburgh a playoff spot. Lamar Jackson has had a bumpy season with plenty of controversy, and while it seems he’ll play through a back injury that kept him out last week, will he be anywhere near his usual self? He hasn’t been all season. There could end up being questions about his future too.

The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites at BetMGM, which is a bit surprising. They are just 6-10 vs. the spread this season but oddsmakers haven’t given up on them. The Steelers just beat the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 14. Derrick Henry had a monster game last week, but it’s not as easy as giving him 36 carries again this week. That’s a lot to ask, even for Henry. Maybe the Ravens win, but anything over a field goal on the road seems like a bit much. Whoever wins, the real fireworks might start for the losing team after the game.

Here are the rest of the picks for Week 18 in the NFL, with odds from BetMGM:

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Panthers (+2.5) over Buccaneers

Based on the last eight weeks, there’s no way the Buccaneers should be favored over practically anyone. Well, except the Raiders. The Bucs are 1-7 since their bye with a -52 point differential. The only win was a three-point home win against the Cardinals, who are 1-13 since Week 2. The Panthers just beat the Buccaneers two weeks ago. Carolina isn’t a very good team either, but trusting the Buccaneers seems foolish.

Seahawks (-1.5) over 49ers

The first game Saturday has important stakes, but is between two deeply flawed teams. This is the main event. The Seahawks are 13-3, the 49ers are 12-4 and the winner gets the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. It’s hard to go against the 49ers, whose offense has been unstoppable lately. But the Seahawks are the better overall team, have a great defense and are 14-2 on the road in the Mike Macdonald era. This will be a great game. This pick is a slight lean to the superior team.

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Saints (+3.5) over Falcons

Now we get to the Sunday games and figuring out who’s even playing, and for what. That’s the riddle of Week 18. The Falcons seem like they’re playing for something meaningful because it has been mentioned all week that their game could ultimately decide the NFC South, but they probably don’t care much if the Buccaneers or Panthers win the division. And the Falcons get a bump from looking great on Monday night with everyone watching. But the Saints have been playing quite well long after everyone stopped paying attention. They’ll compete.

Bengals (-7.5) over Browns

Shedeur Sanders has been reasonable for a late-round rookie quarterback, but the Browns have also failed to score more than 13 points in three of his last five starts. The Bengals have put up at least 32 points in four of their last five games, with a weird shutout loss to the Ravens mixed in. I’ll trust Cincinnati’s offense.

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Packers (+7.5) over Vikings

Matt LaFleur learned his lesson. He played starters in a mostly meaningless Week 18 game last season, and Jordan Love got banged up and Christian Watson suffered a season-ending injury. Green Bay has the No. 7 seed clinched, and LaFleur said he’ll sit some starters. The players out there want to impress, however, and it’s way too many points to lay for a Vikings offense that produced just three net passing yards last week.

Giants (+3.5) over Cowboys

Dak Prescott will start the game, but will he finish? Dallas has some offensive line injuries, which could cause coach Brian Schottenheimer to pull Prescott early. The Giants might benefit from losing, due to draft position, but we saw last week the players and coaching staff don’t care much about that.

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[Check out all of Yahoo’s sports betting content here in our betting hub]

Titans (+12.5) over Jaguars

The Jaguars can clinch the AFC South with a win and the 3-13 Titans are playing for nothing, right? Don’t be so sure. Playing spoiler to ruin the Jaguars’ chances at a division title would be a great way for Tennessee to enter the offseason. We saw Cleveland fight hard to beat the Steelers in a similar situation last week. And Tennessee has fought hard in the last half of the season. This one might not be easy for Jacksonville.

Texans (-10) over Colts

I don’t question the Colts’ desire in this game. But rookie quarterback Riley Leonard making his first NFL start vs. Houston’s defense is a rough assignment. And the Texans have to play hard for two reasons: They can still win the AFC South if the Titans upset the Jaguars, and if that doesn’t happen getting the fifth seed (and the chance to play a weak AFC North winner) is still worth playing to win.

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Bills (-7) over Jets

Let’s run this back from last week’s picks: The Jets have lost six of seven, and the losses have been by 13, 13, 24, 28, 23 and 32 points. Josh Allen is probably playing just one series to keep his consecutive games streak alive. But I’m not taking the Jets against anyone, even the Bills’ backups.

Bears (-3) over Lions

The difference between the No. 2 and No. 3 seed in the NFC probably matters. You’d rather play the depleted Packers rather than any NFC West team. The Bears get the No. 2 seed and a third game against the Packers with a win. The Lions won’t quit (this is a Dan Campbell production, after all) but true motivation will be hard to come by.

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Chargers (+12.5) over Broncos

This is why assuming a team has nothing to play for is often misguided. Trey Lance will start at QB for the Chargers and he knows this is a huge showcase. The same goes for any Chargers backup who is replacing a starter. The Broncos don’t blow teams out, and the large spread is an overreaction to Justin Herbert sitting.

Raiders (+5.5) over Chiefs

This is one weird game. Would I put it past the Chiefs to secretly not be too upset if the Raiders win, perhaps pushing them to the No. 1 overall pick and the quarterback Las Vegas prefers in the draft? We saw last week that the Raiders really want that top pick, and even if the players on the field don’t care about the draft they’re not good enough (especially with Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby being put on IR) that it matters. I’ll just throw up my hands and take the points.

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Rams (-7.5) over Cardinals

The line has moved from Rams -9.5 to -7.5. Bettors must believe the Rams will sit starters, regardless of what Sean McVay said after last week’s game. If the Rams have a shot at the No. 5 seed (they get it with a 49ers loss combined with a win over Arizona), do they play to win? I think so. It would be much better to play the NFC South champ than the Eagles or Bears, and McVay knows that. However, Arizona is probably the better side if the Seahawks lose on Saturday, which would lock the Rams into the sixth seed.

Dolphins (+10.5) over Patriots

Don’t assume the Dolphins won’t play hard just because they were eliminated from the playoff race long ago. Miami has won four of its last six.

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Eagles (-4) over Commanders

It seems like the Eagles will sit starters, which they should. I’d still rather have Tanner McKee and the Eagles backups than the shell of this Commanders team.

Last week: 8-8

Season to date: 127-124-6

Green Bay Packers star Micah Parsons has some extra time on his hands after suffering a torn ACL in December. While his team preps for the playoffs, Parsons is stuck at home recovering after undergoing surgery, and that means he has more time to scroll social media.

Parsons was apparently doing that Thursday when he stumbled upon a post about his former team that compelled him to respond.

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The original post featured an image of Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, who told Cowboys media Thursday that the Parsons trade “changed” how the team’s defense operated. Parsons responded to that tweet with multiple “laughing” emojis.

He then took it a step further. After apparently getting some hate in the comments, Parsons defended his actions, saying he felt slandered by Jerry Jones “for months.”

Parsons was likely referencing a series of comments Jones made ahead of trading the superstar to the Packers. Since that trade, there hasn’t been much of a back-and-forth between the two. In the weeks after the deal, the pass rusher said he didn’t hear from Jones following the trade. Since then it’s been fairly quiet on both sides, though Jones did wish Parsons the best following his season-ending injury.

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But Parsons’ tweet re-opened that wound, and made it clear that he still harbors some feelings about the trade. He has a few reasons for that. While Parsons is currently injured, the change of scenery proved to be beneficial for both him and the Packers. Parsons got paid, and then put up excellent numbers when healthy. Despite losing Parsons, the Packers still managed to secure a playoff spot in the NFC.

The Cowboys can’t say the same. Despite the addition of Eberflus as its defensive coordinator, the team ranks dead last in points allowed per game in 2025. That’s not a huge decline compared to last season, when the Cowboys ranked 31st in the same category, but that’s hardly a consolation.

As last season shows, though, the presence of Parsons in 2025 may not have lifted the Cowboys all that much. The team’s defense was miserable with him last year. While it was worse in 2025, it’s unclear how much he could have single-handedly lifted Dallas’ defense to better numbers.

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Without Parsons, the Cowboys will improve their winning percentage in 2025, though the team has already been eliminated from postseason contention. It will look to use the picks it acquired in the Parsons trade to reload for the 2026 NFL season.

Despite the injury, Parsons still has a shot at winning a ring this season. And if the Packers can’t accomplish that, there’s a decent chance the team will get Parsons back early next season to try and make another run at a Super Bowl title.

While the trade was clearly painful for Parsons, he’s in a better spot right now. The Packers look like perennial contenders with the All-Pro. The Cowboys, meanwhile, look like a team with multiple holes to fill if they want to contend next year.

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Kevin O’Connor shares his 2026 NBA predictions in this solo episode, delivering one key forecast for every team in the league. From blockbuster trade hypotheticals—like Anthony Davis to Atlanta and Giannis possibly landing with the Knicks—to unique player trajectories, Kevin predicts potential statistical trends, trade rumors and team dynamics for the upcoming year.

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(0:52) Hawks prediction

(2:52) Mavericks prediction

(4:51) Lakers prediction

(8:28) Nuggets prediction

(10:07) Spurs prediction

(13:48) Nets prediction

(14:13) Thunder prediction

(15:13) Celtics prediction

(16:16) Pacers prediction

(17:21) Pelicans prediction

(18:57) Rockets prediction

(20:23) Warriors prediction

(21:58) Trail Blazers prediction

(22:56) 76ers prediction

(24:07) Clippers prediction

(26:13) Heat prediction

(27:17) Hornets prediction

(28:13) Wizards prediction

(29:41) Jazz prediction

(32:02) Timberwolves prediction

(35:31) Grizzlies prediction

(37:03) Kings prediction

(38:22) Bulls prediction

(39:57) Raptors prediction

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(40:51) Pistons prediction

(42:05) Suns prediction

(42:39) Magic prediction

(43:20) Cavaliers prediction

(44:36) Knicks & Bucks predictions

🖥️ Watch this full episode on YouTube

Check out the rest of the Yahoo Sports podcast family at https://apple.co/3zEuTQj or at yahoosports.tv

Through eight weeks, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were virtually a lock to make the playoffs. The team sat at 6-2 and quarterback Baker Mayfield was getting MVP buzz. But as Week 18 approaches, the Bucs are in jeopardy of missing out on the postseason due to a miserable second-half collapse.

Following that hot start, things went downhill for Tampa Bay. The team went 1-7 over its last eight games and now sits at 7-9. If the team wants to rally to make the playoffs, it has to defeat the Carolina Panthers in Week 18 (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on ABC) and have the New Orleans Saints defeat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

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With the season on the line, Buccaneers running back Rachaad White implored his team to “look in the mirror” and show some effort to try and salvage the season, according to JoeBucsFan.com.

“It boils down to, for me, how I look at it, just being honest, we all just got to look in the mirror. We all gotta have a level of pride, a level of care. And right now, we all just, you know, are kind of floating around and blowing in the wind. So I think we need to come out with our p*** hot and let’s see what happens.”

[Get more Buccaneers news: Tampa Bay team feed]

That’s not exactly an encouraging quote as the team limps into the final game of the regular season. While White was careful not to bury his teammates, later saying, “I wouldn’t even say we’ve been having horrible or bad starts,” he painted a picture of a team that lacks motivation.

Even if the Buccaneers win in Week 18, the team isn’t guaranteed to make the playoffs. If the Falcons also win in Week 18, it would set up a three-way tie at the top of the division. With all three teams tied at 8-9, the Panthers would advance since they hold a tiebreaker over the Falcons after beating Atlanta twice this season.

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White’s comments were likely meant to fire up his teammates, but it might be too late for that. After dropping so many games in the second half, the Buccaneers now need multiple things to go right in order to make the playoffs. The time for motivation was weeks ago, not days before the final game of the regular season.

It could all work out for the Bucs in the end. Maybe the team defeats the Panthers and the Saints take care of business against the Falcons.

If not, major changes could be coming in Tampa Bay, especially after White implied the team needed to do some soul searching ahead of Week 18.

The Los Angeles Rams announced they signed safety Quentin Lake to a contract extension Thursday. That’s also when they opened his 21-day practice window.

A 2022 sixth-round pick, Lake was in the final year of his rookie deal and was set to hit free agency in March. His extension is worth up to $42 million, with $25.7 million guaranteed, according to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.

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Lake, a team captain who translated an impressive 2024 campaign to early success during the 2025 season, has been on injured reserve since Week 12.

He dislocated his left elbow in a Week 11 win over the Seattle Seahawks. The injury required surgery, but Lake has been working his way back to the field. While he’s not expected to play in Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Arizona Cardinals, the Rams are counting on his presence in the secondary come the postseason.

It sounds like Lake’s on the same page.

“I’m so thankful to be a part of such an amazing organization,” Lake said in a Rams social media video addressing fans Thursday. “Can’t wait to see you guys in the playoffs and for many years to come.”

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Lake played his high school ball at Mater Dei in nearby Santa Ana, California. The UCLA product will be sticking around L.A. for a while longer.

While he started his Rams career earning his horns on special teams, he’s developed into a standout safety. Last season, he piled up 111 total tackles, the second most of any player on the team.

[Get more Rams news: Los Angeles team feed]

This time around, he’s made even more plays, including those of the game-changing variety. Through Week 11, he had accounted for not only 61 total tackles — including 37 solos — but also one sack, one forced fumble, one interception and 10 passes defended.

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The Rams deploy Lake at all safety positions in a diverse defensive picture that’s often changing under coordinator Chris Shula.

Of the 634 defensive snaps Lake has played this season, according to Pro Football Focus, 424 have come in the slot, 89 occurred in the box and 84 were from a deep safety position. Additionally, he’s lined up 32 times on the defensive line and five times at the outside corner spot.

He’s a defensive chess piece, and the Rams have missed him during his absence. In the first 10 games of the season, when Lake was on the field, L.A. gave up only 17.2 points per game. But in the six games since, the 11-5 Rams have allowed 25.7 points per game and gone just 3-3.

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Earlier this season, L.A. extended middle linebacker Nate Landman, who made an immediate impact after signing on a veteran minimum deal of $1.1. million in free agency.

Another captain, Landman has been a stabilizing force in the second level of Shula’s defense.

The Rams rewarded him for his efforts, and they’ve now taken care of Lake, too.

Nate Tice & Charles McDonald join forces to preview the three biggest games of NFL Week 18. Nate & Charles get Lost in the Sauce on the three games with major playoff implications, starting with whether Baker Mayfield & the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can overcome their recent struggles to win the NFC South and beat the Carolina Panthers (with some help from the New Orleans Saints). Next, the duo cover the Seattle Seahawks & San Francisco 49ers battling it out for the 1-seed and the NFC West title. Can the Seahawks defense slow down a red-hot Brock Purdy? Nate & Charles close it out with the Sunday night battle for the AFC North with the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens and which veteran quarterback can carry their team to the playoffs.

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(4:40) – Panthers @ Buccaneers

(29:30) – Seahawks @ 49ers

(57:50) – Ravens @ Steelers

(1:16:30) – Hail Mary bold predictions

🖥️ Watch this full episode on YouTube

Check out the rest of the Yahoo Sports podcast family at https://apple.co/3zEuTQj or at Yahoo Sports Podcasts

The Indiana Hoosiers have enjoyed quite a football season, nabbing the Big Ten championship title, the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, and a Heisman Trophy for quarterback Fernando Mendoza. They’ll seek to continue their success at the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day, where they’ll face No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide. The winner of the game will go on to face the winner of the Orange Bowl, between Texas Tech and Oregon, which is at noon on Jan. 1.

The Rose Bowl game is the second of three major New Year’s Day bowl games airing on ESPN and will stream on ESPN Unlimited starting at 4:00 p.m. ET. The Orange Bowl kicks things off at 12 p.m., and the Sugar Bowl, between Georgia and Ole Miss, is at 8 p.m. ET. Here’s how to watch the Rose Bowl when it airs this Thursday, and take a look at the complete schedule of this week’s playoff and bowl games below.

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How to watch Indiana vs. Alabama in the Rose Bowl game:

Date: Thursday, January 1

Time: 4 p.m. ET

TV Channel: ESPN

Streaming: ESPN Unlimited, DirecTV, Fubo and more

When is the Indiana vs. Alabama game?

You can watch coverage of this week’s Indiana vs. Alabama Rose Bowl game starting at 4:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 1.

Where to watch the Indiana vs. Alabama game without cable

You can tune in to the Rose Bowl game on ESPN. ESPN is available on streaming platforms, including DirecTV and Sling, but for the most comprehensive college football coverage, you can also watch this game and hundreds more on the ESPN app with an ESPN Unlimited subscription.

College football playoff game/bowl schedule this week:

All time Eastern

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Wednesday, Dec. 31

12 p.m. | No. 14 Vanderbilt vs. No. 23 Iowa | ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa, Fla.) | ESPN
2 p.m. | Duke vs. Arizona State | Sun Bowl (El Paso, Texas) | CBS
3 p.m. | No. 13 Texas vs. No. 18 Michigan | Citrus Bowl (Orlando, Fla.) | ABC
3:30 p.m. | No. 15 Utah vs. Nebraska | Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, Nev.) | ESPN
7:30 p.m. | No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami (Fla.) | Cotton Bowl (CFP Quarterfinal) (Arlington, Texas) | ESPN

Thursday, Jan. 1

12 p.m. | No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon | Orange Bowl (CFP Quarterfinal) (Miami, Fla.) | ESPN
4 p.m. | No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama | Rose Bowl (CFP Quarterfinal) (Pasadena, Ca.) | ESPN
8 p.m. | No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss | Sugar Bowl (CFP Quarterfinal) (New Orleans, La.) | ESPN

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Friday, Jan. 2

1 p.m. | Rice vs. Texas State | Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth, Texas) | ESPN
4:30 p.m. | Navy vs. Cincinnati | Liberty Bowl (Memphis, Tenn.) | ESPN
8 p.m. | Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State | Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Charlotte, N.C.) | ESPN
8 p.m. | SMU vs. Arizona | Holiday Bowl (San Diego) | FOX

How to watch college football games in 2025

NCAA football games will air across ESPN, ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC and the college conference networks. If you don’t have cable, it can be challenging to stay up-to-date with your favorite team. Here’s what we recommend to stream NCAA football.

More ways to watch NCAAF games this season

February 22, 2026

Happy New Year! As we wave goodbye to 2025 and welcome in 2026, fantasy basketball managers are making resolutions for the new year. Unfortunately, there’s no way you can go back and draft Nikola Jokić (though the Nuggets big man is out at least a month due to a knee injury). But you can make plans to be the best roster regulator this year in an attempt to take home a championship. We’ve learned plenty through the first three months of High Score on Yahoo.

Let’s wrap up the year with the perfect lineup from December:

More on the top performers

Luka Dončić, guard: The Lakers superstar has been one of the best case studies so far in High Score — a player who almost always hits a ceiling week-to-week despite missing games and busting out. For example, Dončić missed three games in December and posted low scores of 47 points and 21 points (due to injury) in certain spots. But he also dropped 99 fantasy points on Dec. 18 vs. the Jazz, one of the highest scores all season. December wasn’t Dončić’s best month; he averaged 31 points, 7.9 assists and 7.2 rebounds while shooting 44.1% from the floor and 28.9% from distance. We’d like to see a more consistent showing from Luka to start 2026.

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Cade Cunningham, guard: Cunningham is in the NBA MVP conversation with the Pistons set to enter 2026 atop the Eastern Conference. In the new year, Cunningham should look to be a more aggressive and efficient scorer; he shot 48.7% from the floor in December but only averaged 17.2 attempts per game.

The volume scoring is holding Cunningham back from his true potential, which we’ve seen with massive fantasy outputs this season. But his assist and steals totals are helping him remain atop the fantasy scoreboard most weeks. He dished out 17 assists — one shy of a season high — on Dec. 26 against Utah to help him reach 80 fantasy points in High Score.

Nikola Jokić, frontcourt: It’s upsetting that we enter 2026 without Jokić on the court. To start the last week of 2025, Jokić hyperextended his left knee and is expected to miss at least four weeks. At least the Nuggets big left his managers with a parting gift for 2025 in the form of a season-high 108 fantasy points in a Christmas Day win over the Timberwolves. Jokić picked apart Minnesota with 56 points, 16 rebounds, 15 assists and two steals. It was the eighth game this season Joker had 80+ fantasy points.

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It was looking like, at minimum, managers with Jokić on their roster would be a shoo-in for the fantasy playoffs. There’s no replacing him in the short-term; you can only hope he comes back healthy and picks up where he left off.

Kawhi Leonard, frontcourt: After missing the start of the season and pretty much all of November, Leonard is back (and then some). He’s playing every night, something we’ve rarely seen throughout his injury-riddled career. His numbers in December are looking MVP-worthy: 29.8 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3.1 stocks per game while shooting 49/36/96 over 12 games. Leonard dropped a career-high 55 points with 11 rebounds and eight stocks in a win over the Pistons on Dec. 28 to reach 94 fantasy points for that week. If Leonard can keep this up, he’s looking like one of the steals of drafts.

Alperen Şengün, frontcourt: Like Jokić, the Rockets’ big is going to start 2026 on the shelf while dealing with a calf injury that has caused him to miss two games. But he enters Wednesday ranked ninth in average fantasy points per game in High Score at 53.2 on the season. Şengün has sort of been a Jokić-lite to start his fifth NBA season, producing across multiple categories (rebounds, assists, stocks). The issue has been scoring volume, which we don’t always see, given the presence of Kevin Durant in Houston. Şengün’s top score in December of 88 just made the cut on Dec. 1 against the Jazz (of course, it was against Utah). The elite stock coverage will always elevate Şengün’s floor; he averaged 3.5 stocks in December.

Scottie Barnes, utility: The Raptors swingman snuck his way onto this list thanks to a historic rebounding performance to close last week. He helped Toronto force OT and eventually take home a win over the Dubs on Sunday, scoring 23 points with a career-high 25 rebounds and 10 assists for his first triple-double of the season. Barnes also added a pair of assists and three stocks to help him reach 80 fantasy points and knock Hawks F Jalen Johnson off this list. Barnes has a high ceiling given his category coverage, but the lack of scoring and rebounds giving you only 1 FPT hurts his floor.

For the second time this MLB offseason, an unexpected team emerged late in the posting process as the landing spot for a Japanese star making the jump from NPB. On Thursday, one day before his posting window was set to expire, the Houston Astros reportedly agreed to sign 27-year-old right-hander Tatsuya Imai to a deal that guarantees him $54 million over three years but is structured in a way that affords him substantial flexibility and upside for greater earnings in the short term, with a maximum value of $63 million and opt-outs after each season.

Before Christmas, it was the rebuilding Chicago White Sox who shocked the industry by signing accomplished slugger Munetaka Murakami, one of the greatest power hitters in Japanese history. Chicago felt like an unlikely destination, considering where it is in its competitive window and that the market for Murakami was expected to outpace what the White Sox would be comfortable pursuing. Ultimately, Murakami’s two-year, $34 million deal was reflective of an industry that was hesitant to invest in him because of his swing-and-miss tendencies and defensive limitations.

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In hindsight, the match makes a good amount of sense considering the circumstances, as the short-term pact affords Murakami the opportunity to prove himself on a club with far lower stakes than he might have faced hitting in the middle of the lineup for a contender. And if he excels, Murakami can become a free agent again at age 28 and seek a more lucrative, long-term contract after proving himself in MLB.

As it turns out, a similar sequence has unfolded in the wake of Imai choosing Houston: initial surprise followed by gradual recognition that the Astros could be a perfect fit for the pitcher, especially under the terms of the reported contract.

At first, Imai picking the Astros raised eyebrows. Houston rarely came up in reports as a possible landing spot for him, largely based on the assumption that despite needing starting pitching in the wake of longtime ace Framber Valdez’s expected departure, the Astros were unlikely to replace Valdez by spending aggressively on a different free-agent arm.

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A more cost-conscious strategy seemed to be in play when the Astros swung a trade to land a cheap and controllable starter in Mike Burrows from Pittsburgh, a nifty move that strengthened Houston’s starting staff but still left the depth chart wanting. Even so, given a longstanding organizational preference to avoid surpassing the luxury tax line and a projected payroll already well in excess of $200 million, Houston’s flexibility to add another impact arm appeared limited; a more modest add via trade or free agency seemed more plausible.

[Get more Astros news: Houston team feed]

The Astros had also never signed a player directly from NPB, having entered the winter as one of three teams with such a distinction, along with the Marlins and Rockies. That said, a few notable Japanese players have played in Houston, from Kaz Matsui to Nori Aoki and, most recently, Yusei Kikuchi. The club is also one year removed from selling the naming rights to its ballpark to Daikin, a Japanese industrial manufacturing conglomerate, perhaps an indication that the franchise was interested in expanding its brand globally. But considering that we had never seen Houston land a player through the posting system, it seemed like a stretch to link the Astros to Imai over teams with substantial histories of signing Japanese players, such as the Cubs, Mets, Yankees or even the Orioles.

However, remove the club’s history and payroll preferences, and the Astros did qualify as a logical fit for Imai as a contending team in dire need of impact starting pitching — especially on a deal of this size. Had Imai’s market ballooned to nine figures and lengthier terms, it’s difficult to envision the Astros being involved. But as it turned out, the market fell into Houston’s range, as some of the expected suitors such as the Yankees and Mets reportedly stayed out of the mix, opening the door for the Astros to swoop in and craft the kind of contract that stands to benefit both sides.

While Imai and his agent, Scott Boras, were unable to secure the nine-figure contract they were reportedly seeking originally, this deal could lead to a more sizable payday down the road. With opt-outs after 2026 and 2027, Imai can reenter the market at age 28 or 29 in the event that he excels immediately and establishes himself as an impact major-league starter. There are also highly attainable escalators based on innings pitched that can raise the contract’s guarantee to $63 million ($3M each year), so there’s financial upside baked into the existing deal as well.

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The opt-outs are crucial and likely played a big part in sealing the deal for the Astros. Imai reportedly turned down longer-term offers with lower AAVs in favor of this contract. That would seem to indicate that the 27-year-old is confident he can pitch his way into a bigger payday in a year or two, which on its face would not be an especially favorable outcome for the Astros.

But herein lies a key difference between Murakami’s and Imai’s deals. If Murakami is indeed terrific right away, it’s unlikely that Chicago will be able to retain him when he becomes a free agent again in two years. Even more importantly, it’s difficult to envision the White Sox being competitive over the next two seasons, meaning the club might not benefit from Murakami’s production in a way that alters their place in the standings.

[Get more Houston news: Astros team feed]

The calculus is different in Houston. The overarching goal for the Astros is to keep their prolonged window of World Series contention open as long as possible. The 2025 season represented a sobering step back, with the team missing the postseason for the first time since 2016. Meanwhile, the division rival Mariners took a sizable step forward and now look like the team to beat on paper. But for all the dramatic roster turnover in Houston in recent years, there’s still enough talent in place to form a formidable club around franchise anchors Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez and, now, Brown atop the rotation.

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So while it’s true that if Imai is fantastic right away, he might opt out in search of a larger deal — likely elsewhere if Houston maintains its aversion to long-term contracts for pitchers — if the Japanese righty is awesome in 2026, that could be the difference between Houston making a return to October and coming up short in a competitive American League. Even if this kind of deal tilts player-friendly, the upside is well worth pursuing for a franchise in Houston’s position.

Imai’s signing likely marks the end of Houston’s search for pitching this winter, having also acquired Burrows and signed Nate Pearson and Ryan Weiss to major-league deals. But that’s not to say general manager Dana Brown is finished doing business. Imai’s $18 million AAV puts Houston’s projected payroll just a touch below the first luxury tax line, according to FanGraphs. That leaves minimal wiggle room for another major addition if staying below the $244M mark is a goal, but another trade of a veteran could be in order, especially considering the crowded position-player group made more complicated by the return of Carlos Correa last summer.

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With Correa entrenched at third base alongside Jeremy Peña at shortstop and the club reticent to play Altuve regularly at second base anymore (preferring him in left field or at DH), there aren’t enough spots in the lineup for regular at-bats for Altuve, Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes and Alvarez. And if Alvarez and Altuve are essentially alternating between DH and left field, that leaves just first base for Walker and Paredes. This makes Houston an intriguing team to monitor on the trade market in the coming weeks.

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — For a fleeting moment early in the Orange Bowl’s fourth quarter, Texas Tech’s opportunity to salvage one of the most embarrassing performances in the history of the College Football Playoff was at hand.

The Red Raiders certainly didn’t deserve it. Their offense had spent the first 2½ hours bumbling through the playbook, unable to block, unable to throw, unable to catch. The only thing they’d done with any proficiency was turn the ball over.

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And yet here they were, down just two scores to Oregon, threatening to find the end zone for the first time all day. The Ducks’ own mistakes had provided a tourniquet, and Texas Tech stood a mere nine yards away from a touchdown that would have turned up the pressure on a team that hadn’t been given any reason to doubt its destiny.

A championship team would have scored there. Instead, what Texas Tech did — a how-can-you-throw-that-ball interception from quarterback Behren Morton — provided another layer of cement on a narrative college football can no longer ignore.

In a moment when administrators, fans and media members are questioning the viability of schools outside the four power conferences, even pushing to exclude them from the CFP, it’s time to consider whether the Big 12 is perpetrating a fraud on college football.

Is this collection of schools still worthy of being called a power conference?

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“We didn’t play good enough,” Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire said moments after Oregon wrapped up its 23-0 victory. “It really wasn’t the patch on anybody’s arm.”

Perhaps conference affiliation had nothing to do with Texas Tech’s measly nine first downs, going 6-for-19 on third/fourth-down conversions, or turning the football over four times.

But Texas Tech was the ninth team to represent the Big 12 since the CFP began a dozen years ago. It’s the eighth to have lost. TCU’s upset over Michigan in the 2022 semifinals remains the only time a Big 12 team has won a playoff game.

This Texas Tech team was supposed to be different than the undersized gimmickry the Big 12 usually sends to a playoff slaughter. Backed by billionaire former player Cody Campbell, the Red Raiders spent a reported $28 million putting together this roster. They were physically elite on defense. They didn’t just win the Big 12, they battered it into submission, beating BYU — clearly the league’s second-best team — by scores of 29-7 and 34-7.

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And even on a day Oregon struggled with mistakes and offensive execution, Texas Tech wasn’t even in their same weight class.

“This shouldn’t discredit them,” Oregon coach Dan Lanning said. “I remember this feeling last year.”

He’s right. This shouldn’t discredit Texas Tech, which managed to wring more out of this season than any team in program history.

It should, however, discredit the Big 12.

Maybe 30 yards away from where Morton threw that final interception, in a room just past the tunnel at Hard Rock Stadium, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark met with reporters about an hour before Thursday’s kickoff.

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“I love our chances [Thursday],” he said, while insisting that the outcome of the game had nothing to do with the influence his conference wields in discussions about the future of the CFP.

“We have a big voice in that room,” Yormark said, suggesting on three different occasions that he sits alongside the SEC’s Greg Sankey, the Big Ten’s Tony Petitti and the ACC’s Jim Phillips as equals on the throne.

But Yormark, who worked for NASCAR, the Brooklyn Nets and Jay-Z’s Roc Nation agency before finding his way to college sports 3½ years ago, did not offer that same courtesy when the topic turned to Group of Five inclusion.

As conference commissioners consider whether to expand the playoff next year — ESPN has set a Jan. 23 deadline to figure out a new structure or stay with the current 12-team format — the hottest of hot buttons will be whether they establish a new standard for non-power conference teams to make the playoff.

This year’s anomalous inclusion of Tulane and James Madison — both of which were blown out in first-round games — is certainly never going to happen again. But some administrators in leagues like the American Conference, the reconfigured Pac-12 and the Mountain West believe negative commentary around the concept of “inclusion” is part of a coordinated effort to essentially kick them out of the playoff altogether.

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Asked whether he believed there was consensus among the power conference commissioners that a Group of Five representative should be guaranteed a spot in the next iteration of the playoff, Yormark’s smarmy response practically gave away the game.

“Frankly, that’s a great question, and I don’t want to speak to that,” he said. “I mean, listen, there’s 10 commissioners and obviously Notre Dame that are on the management committee, and we all communicate and we’re all being very thoughtful about it. I will say that the Power Four commissioners are spending more time together to work through what expansion might look like. But there’s a lot of things we have to weigh and consider and we’ll see what happens.”

Yormark didn’t have to say another word to make it clear where he stands.

But the question we should all be asking is whether it’s because he doesn’t believe the unwashed Group of Five masses belong in the playoff or because he’s afraid the Big 12 would be rendered irrelevant if it were forced to earn its keep.

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We just watched the team that dominated his conference all year get reduced to ashes by the third-best team in the Big Ten. Who’s the charity case now, Brett?

Because even if you believe Texas Tech had an unusually bad day, this was the kind of playoff game we’ve seen many times before where you could have played it 10 times and gotten a similar result. That’s how much of a mismatch it was.

While the bureaucracy of the CFP is what keeps the Big 12 in its privileged position at the table with the SEC and Big Ten, the democratization of the sport through NIL and playoff expansion has exposed it as a lie.

Are we really going to pretend that the Big 12 champion deserves any guarantees in the future CFP while a league with one playoff win in 12 years works to block or raise the threshold for a team like Tulane?

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“Today’s game has no bearing on it,” Yormark said. “I’m all about progress. Would [Texas Tech winning] show progress? 100 percent. But it has nothing to do with what goes on in the room.”

Maybe it should.

Hey, at least Texas Tech tried. Yes, the amount of money Campbell and other boosters spent on this team was obscene, but they got some bang for their buck. The defense they put together was phenomenal and certainly had something to do with Oregon struggling to get the ball in the end zone.

But it’s equally clear that whatever the Red Raiders faced week-in and week-out in the Big 12 prepared them poorly to face a team with elite size and speed on both sides of the ball. Texas Tech had a great season, but one that was almost certainly inflated by lack of worthy competition.

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“That’s a really good defense,” McGuire said. “They did a great job defending us. We’ve been a big-play offense and they kept the ball in front of them. You can’t turn the ball over four times.”

In college football, the politics driving the sport and the reality on the field are often misaligned. As the Big 12 tries to ensure playoff access for itself and perhaps make it tougher for would-be competitors, Texas Tech helped make it crystal clear why Yormark wants no part of a meritocracy.

If you’re going to continue to call yourself a power conference, it would help to show up to these games once in a while and deliver a little power.