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Justin Boone won the FantasyPros Most Accurate Expert Award in 2019 and has eight top-10 finishes in the competition. He now brings his rankings acumen to the Yahoo Fantasy audience after joining the team as an analyst.

Below you can see a very early look at his Top 50 fantasy rankings for the 2026 season. More expanded rankings, including in-depth looks at each position, PPR scoring and rookies will be available in future updates.

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5 Takeaways from the early 2026 rankings

There will be no consensus 1.01

Unlike previous years, you can make a strong case for several players to be the first overall pick in 2026 fantasy drafts. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are the only two backs to finish as top-four fantasy RBs each of the past two seasons. Puka Nacua averaged the most fantasy points among WRs. Ja’Marr Chase continued to be a high-end producer despite losing Joe Burrow to injury for some games. Christian McCaffrey was the top-scoring fantasy RB. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a breakout year that put him in the conversation with the elite players at his position.

You could even make an argument for guys like De’Von Achane and Jonathan Taylor, depending on what their teams do at quarterback.

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Trey McBride deserves consideration in Round 1

McBride is the first tight end to average over 15 fantasy points per game in half PPR (18 fppg in PPR) since Travis Kelce accomplished the feat in 2022. Much like Kelce that year, McBride had a sizable advantage over the other players at his position, averaging 2.4 more fantasy points per game than the next closest tight end in half-PPR and 3.5 more in PPR formats.

To give some context, that would have made him the WR7 behind only Nacua, JSN, Rashee Rice, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase and George Pickens.

The Cardinals have decisions to make with their coaching staff and quarterback, but Jacoby Brissett unlocked a version of McBride that makes him a borderline first-round pick in fantasy.

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Sophomores will turn into stars

We spent all summer discussing the strength of the 2025 rookie class, and though it took a while for some of them to hit their stride, there are a lot of fantasy difference-makers among that group. Ashton Jeanty got the bell-cow usage we were looking for and should have a better supporting cast in 2026. Omarion Hampton is the RB16 in fppg, despite dealing with injuries to himself and his offensive line. TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey flashed massive ceilings in the second half of the season. Quinshon Judkins looks the part of a star back and hopefully, the Browns can improve their offense around him.

Meanwhile, Tetairoa McMillan is firmly established as the Panthers No. 1 target moving forward and Luther Burden III gave us a glimpse of his future as the top receiver in Chicago’s passing attack. All those players made it into my top 50 below, and you could realistically see their situations getting even better during their sophomore campaigns in 2026.

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Injury recoveries will be key

There’s a trio of players who will be high-end fantasy assets at their positions — and possibly even rise in the table below — if they can return at 100% for Week 1.

Malik Nabers suffered a torn ACL in late September, which should give him enough time to get back to full strength for the start of next season. With Jaxson Dart at the helm, Nabers could join the elite fantasy WRs if all goes well in 2026. His teammate Cam Skattebo is facing a four-to-six-month rehab for a dislocated ankle in October. Prior to the injury, the bruising runner was the RB6 in fppg over his last six appearances and averaged 22 touches per game over his final four starts.

We’ll also be watching for news on Tucker Kraft, who tore his ACL in early November. Kraft was in the midst of a breakout season and was the highest-scoring fantasy TE through the first eight weeks before getting hurt.

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Free agency looms for several talents

George Pickens, Breece Hall, Travis Etienne Jr. and Kenneth Walker III all cracked my top 50, but we don’t know for sure where they’ll be playing next season.

It would be surprising to see Pickens (WR6 in fppg) not return to the Cowboys, even if it’s on the franchise tag. However, Hall, Etienne and Walker could be wearing new jerseys in 2026. Hall seems ready for a fresh start on a new club after yet another disappointing campaign from the Jets. Consider me among the fantasy managers ready to draft Hall if he lands in a more competent offense.

Etienne (RB10 in fppg) is having an outstanding year under Liam Coen and might have done enough to earn himself a new contract in Jacksonville.

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That brings us to Walker, who was one of the most frustrating fantasy options this season, but has the talent to excel if he ever gets a backfield to himself.

Consider their rankings below as placeholders, which could rise or fall significantly depending on how things play out in free agency.

Very early Top 50 fantasy rankings for 2026

Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokić is set to miss at least the next four weeks and will likely be ineligible for MVP consideration after suffering a hyperextended left knee during Monday night’s loss to the Miami Heat, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania.

Jokić exited the game late in the first half after injuring his left knee and did not return. He stepped awkwardly and his left knee buckled while standing in the paint in the final seconds. Teammate Spencer Jones stepped back on Jokić’s foot as he was trying to guard Jaime Jaquez Jr., and that’s when Jokić’s knee buckled.

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He instantly fell to the ground after the bad step and started rolling around in pain while grabbing his left knee as Kel’el Ware made an easy layup, which tied the game at the break. Jokić eventually stood up and walked to the locker room on his own, but he was limping significantly and barely put any weight on his left leg as he did so.

Jokić did not start the second half, and he was listed as questionable to return before being ruled out. He finished with 21 points, 8 assists and 5 rebounds

“This is part of the NBA. Anyone who gets hurt, it’s gut-wrenching,” said Nuggets head coach David Adelman afterward. “Especially somebody as special as he is. We’ll find out more tomorrow, and move on as a team. I’m more concerned about him as a person and the disappointment of going through something like that. It’s unfortunate, and we’re hoping for the best.”

Jokić has managed to stay relatively healthy throughout his 11-season NBA career, having played at least 69 games in every season since breaking into the league in 2015-16.

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A four-week absence could see Jokić miss around 16-18 games and return in late January. He’s played in all 32 games for the Nuggets this season, but missing 18 games would put the three-time MVP below the 65-game threshold for league awards and would make him ineligible for MVP consideration this season.

The Nuggets are 22-10 and sit in third place in the Western Conference. They begin life without the game’s best player on Wednesday against the Toronto Raptors.

Fantasy basketball impact

Before we get into it, the fantasy community is breathing a sigh of relief. The injury comes on the heels of Jokić posting the most prolific fantasy performance of the season, dropping 108 High Score points after demolishing Minnesota on Christmas Day. Because the injury occurred after Week 10 rankings locked, Jokić holds steady in this week’s update. But for managers scrambling to fill that void, Jonas Valančiūnas is the clear next-man-up add. He’ll absorb a steady diet of frontcourt minutes and touches while Jokić is sidelined. — Dan Titus

We’re back hoops fans with another Yahoo Fantasy x Arena Club drop for Week 11. Yahoo Fantasy Basketball Slab Packs are a brand-new weekly drop featuring real, graded trading cards of the hottest fantasy performers in the NBA.

If you’re new to Arena Club, here’s the lowdown. Arena Club is the premier online marketplace for sports cards, giving collectors a way to rip packs virtually, buy and sell graded cards and track their entire collection — all in one place. Whether you’re in it for the hobby, the thrill or the chase, Arena Club brings the excitement directly to your screen.

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[Rip your exclusive Yahoo Fantasy + Arena Club slab pack here]

Each week, Arena Club curates real, graded NBA cards and builds two types of Yahoo Fantasy Slab Packs:

Every pack contains a graded card of an active NBA player — but the real treasure is the weekly Chase Cards, featuring some of the top fantasy basketball performers from the past week. These limited-edition hits can reach values up to 20x the cost of the pack.

Weekly NBA Slab Packs go live every Tuesday at 1 p.m. ET and remain available through Saturday (or until they’re gone). It’s the ultimate mid-week boost for fantasy hoopers and collectors alike.

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To top it off, use promo code YAHOO at checkout for 20% off your first slab pack or card purchase on ArenaClub.com or the Arena Club app.

This Week’s Featured Players

Rip a slab pack today for a chance to pull one of the week’s biggest fantasy basketball stars:

Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers

Spida is among the top-10 scorers in the NBA, averaging 29.5 points per game. He showed out in a loss to the Knicks on Christmas Day last week, scoring 34 points and 65 fantasy points.

Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves

Ant Man put on an offensive exhibition on Christmas Day in the OT thriller vs. the Nuggets, scoring 44 points in 42 minutes.

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Kawhi Leonard, Clippers (Silver only)

Kawhi finally appears healthy and he’s looking like his old self. Last week, he averaged 71 fantasy points per game in High Score, topping out at 94 on Sunday with a 55-point effort in a win over Detroit.

Nikola Jokić, Nuggets

The three-time NBA MVP has been a cheat code and a half all season. Last week, he posted the highest fantasy point total of the season with 108 on X-Mas vs. the T-Wolves, scoring 56 points with 16 rebounds and 15 assists. Legendary stuff.

Luka Dončić, Lakers

The L.A. superstar was able to save his fantasy week with 65 points against the Kings on Sunday. He scored 34 points with five rebounds, seven assists and four stocks.

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Cade Cunningham, Pistons (Silver only)

Cunningham was distributing like a mad man last week, racking up 49 dimes over a four-game span.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

SGA had a pretty quiet week for him in terms of fantasy output. That still included a high score of 72 fantasy points in a win over the Grizzlies.

Weekly Drops. Real Cards. Real Value. Real Thrill.

With new cards releasing every week based on real fantasy performance, the Yahoo Fantasy x Arena Club partnership delivers a constantly refreshing lineup of NBA stars — and the chase cards you’ll be talking about all season.

Don’t miss this week’s release.

Rip your slab pack, hit a chase card, and upgrade your collection today!

[Get your Yahoo Fantasy Basketball Slab Pack now]

Now that the fantasy season has come and gone, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through seven storylines that defined the 2025 season. What can fantasy managers learn for next August?

New Playcallers Controlled the Booms & Busts

An absolutely crucial part of the fantasy offseason that is often overlooked is who the playcallers of NFL teams are, specifically the new ones. The risk of a new offensive playcaller led to an array of early-round busts and late-round gems once again in 2025. The key positive examples from this season include Ben Johnson igniting the Bears offense, Kellen Moore unlocking fantasy WR1 Chris Olave, Liam Coen turning Trevor Lawrence into a top-three fantasy QB and reviving Travis Etienne Jr. and Klint Kubiak making Jaxon Smith-Njigba a 2026 first-round pick.

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However, as often as changes are positive, those changes are a risk for a reason. Moore to the Saints meant Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts were left behind in a stagnant Eagles offense. Although Coen sparked the Jaguars in Jacksonville, he left Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and company to fall off dramatically. It can even be position-dependent, as 2024 RB1 Kenneth Walker III lost significant volume with Kubiak coming in as the new playcaller.

Ultimately, the coaching changes lead me to the general understanding of the following: a clear potential upgrade at playcaller (Jacksonville, Chicago, New Orleans, etc.) are goldmines for late-round steals in comparison to other late-drafted players. The opposite is true as well. Oftentimes, the early-round players can become this year’s busts with an offensive overhaul, changing their once ideal situation to, at least, something new.

If the new changes don’t fit in just as nicely, even stars like Barkley can fall.

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Rookie RBs Useless Early, Great Late

2025 was, overall, not the year to draft a rookie RB. This season was a perfect example of the risk of the unknown while also showing glimpses of why we seem to take that risk every August. It’s worked plenty of times before; Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bucky Irving, etc. — all league-winning running backs from Year 1. After Ashton Jeanty was a 2025 Round 1 bust and no other rookie back shone until late in the season, most managers struggled to make the playoffs going down the rookie path this year. However, those who survived were rewarded for their patience. Rookies need time, and when it works, it usually works extremely well.

In the second half of the season, all four of the top rookie RBs ranked inside the top-15 in fantasy. RJ Harvey was the RB10 as a starter, TreVeyon Henderson the RB6 when starting, (taking out his concussion game) Omarion Hampton RB8 in PPG after Week 2 and Ashton Jeanty had an up-and-down RB16 season with a star performance in Round 2 of the playoffs.

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The lessons from this are the same as they’ve always been. One: rookie RBs are drafted for the end of the season, not month No. 1; plan accordingly. Two: situation is just as important as talent. Three: it’s usually unwise to draft players close to their projected ceiling, especially ones we haven’t seen before (Jeanty).

Bust Recovery Therapy

I treat fantasy football like a strategy game. At the end of the day, don’t play with emotions, play with your brain. Yet, far too often, fantasy players’ grudges of the past play the biggest role in their future decisions. I’ve already seen people saying they will never draft the RB4, Jahmyr Gibbs, because of his performance in the fantasy championship.

In 2025, however, the exact opposite strategy paid off immensely. A number of the best values in the draft came from 2024 busts who had fallen way too far down draft boards. Just to name a few: ADP RB30, Travis Etienne Jr.; ADP RB36, Javonte Williams; ADP WR35, Chris Olave; and seventh overall pick, Christian McCaffrey.

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The key to choosing the right ones often comes after asking one simple question: have things changed? If players’ situations don’t change for the better, such as Garrett Wilson or Marvin Harrison Jr, then it’s easier to pass if their ADP isn’t dropping very low. The opposite would be someone like Travis Etienne Jr., who finished as the RB3 in 2023. One bad season in 2024 and he dropped to ADP RB30, despite having a completely revamped offensive line and Coen, a playcaller who produced multiple top-24 fantasy RBs the year prior. In general, if a player has played amazingly up until the year before, like ADP WR47 Michael Pittman Jr. being top-20 in three straight seasons, they are an ideal process flyer.

So, in 2026, I am ready to get hurt again.

Mid-Season Buys on Talent

It seemed riiiiiiiight as fantasy managers gave up hope, their top draft pick went on a run … most likely for another team. Lesson: if you have the affordability to be patient, buying high-end talent for dirt-cheap can pay off long-term. After starting the season as the RB34, Chase Brown was the RB6 the rest of the season after the Bengals traded for QB Joe Flacco. With A.J. Brown struggling through a new offensive system, the star WR averaged 9.7 PPG through six weeks. The rest of the season? Eighteen points flat. Tee Higgins, TreVeyon Henderson, Chris Olave and more — same story. If things begin to click, it pays off in a substantial way.

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Late-Season Busts Off-Target Throw Percentage

Two of the biggest surprises of the season came in the second half: the fall off of Emeka Egbuka and Rome Odunze. Through five weeks, the young WRs were the WR3 (Egbuka) and WR4 (Odunze), poised to be the steals of fantasy drafts.

They ended WR28 and WR26.

The main reason is simple in theory: catch rate. The volume was there; they just weren’t catching the ball. Drops, yes, but more importantly, off-target throws. They are to blame as well, but a large part was an inconsistent Caleb Williams and injured Mayfield placing them at the bottom of all NFL wideouts in catchable target rate.

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After Week 5, only 60% of Odunze’s targets were deemed catchable, the third-worst in the NFL. In last was Egbuka, at 53%. The connection and accuracy combined for rates that made it impossible to produce. Drops have surprisingly been positively correlated in fantasy football in the past, as getting volume outweighs the plays being failed to be made (for example, believe it or not, Malik Nabers led the NFL in drops last season).

Once again, though, QB play is the main factor driving fantasy WR success, and these two WRs saw their luck flip.

Rushing QB Value Hits Again

My first plan of attack every August: find the rushing QB who is being drafted late. Rushing upside is king in fantasy football, and every year, one or more players being drafted in the later rounds pay off in a big way for fantasy managers. Football fans in general need to see it before they believe it, and that’s what needs to be taken advantage of when it comes to fantasy football. Lamar Jackson in 2019, Josh Allen in 2020, Jalen Hurts in 2021, Justin Fields in 2022, Jayden Daniels in 2024 and many more. Like clockwork.

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Last season, Drake Maye flashed late in the season and finished as the QB13 in PPG in his 12 starts. The offensive line was added to, skill players joined, new coaching entered and the sophomore QB taken third overall in the 2024 NFL Draft showed why he was chosen so early. Seventeen weeks later, and Maye was the QB steal of the draft and the overall fantasy QB2.

He wasn’t the only one, either. Jaxson Dart joined mid-way through the season as the rookie out of Ole Miss brought his red-zone rushing advantage to the table. Who’s next in 2026?

Projecting RB Volume Ranks

RB volume is the most important factor in fantasy football, but predicting it in August isn’t always so simple. Some of the best RB values were talented players who saw an increase in volume compared to last season. Jahmyr Gibbs avoided the fate David Montgomery saw without Ben Johnson this season, not purely because of his skill set, but because the offseason rumors of his potential volume came true. Gibbs’ RB14 volume rank in 2024 improved to RB4, helping him keep the same PPG despite the losses in the offseason.

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Other examples included James Cook III, Travis Etienne Jr. and Javonte Williams. Etienne and Williams’ chance of bellcow volume alone, in hindsight, should have been enough to raise their ADP. Cook’s contract was not just a commitment financially. His volume rank improved from RB27 in 2024 to RB8 in 2025, more than enough to counterbalance some overproduction in 2024.

As always, the same can be said in reverse. If you were able to project the lack of volume for Kenneth Walker III, TreVeyon Henderson and Chuba Hubbard, it would’ve saved you some headaches, as talent was not the primary issue.

The fantasy football waiver wire is where seasons can be won and lost. And it doesn’t matter if it’s Week 1 or Week 12, grabbing a player off the wire can change the entire complexion and performance of your roster. As we look back on the 2025 fantasy season, there were plenty of notable waiver wire adds who helped managers to a championship.

Below, we’re going to go over the best pickups of the season in our All-Waiver Wire team.

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Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford, Rams (12% drafted)

Stafford may have lost out on his chance to win an actual MVP award but he was arguably the most valuable QB in fantasy relative to expectations. Stafford went nearly undrafted in the preseason as concerns over his back injury scared off managers. He shook off those concerns to finish as the QB5 in fantasy points per game (20.7) while placing second in the NFL in passing yards (4,448) and first in TD passes (42). Stafford proved that pure pocket passers can still thrive in fantasy in a QB landscape riddled with signal callers who offer rushing upside.

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Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (41% drafted)

If you were in a deeper format, chances are Lawrence would have been drafted. But he was widely available on waiver wires in many leagues and finished the fantasy season as the QB6 in points per game at 20.4, just behind Stafford. Lawrence was particularly great toward the end of the season and into the fantasy playoffs, averaging 33.2 points from Weeks 15-17.

It took a bit, but Lawrence got comfortable in Liam Coen’s offense while also developing chemistry with WR Jakobi Meyers after a mid-season trade. Lawrence just cracked the top 10 in terms of players who helped managers win a championship in 2025.

Honorable Mention: Jaxson Dart, Giants

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Running Backs

Rico Dowdle, Panthers (5% drafted)

Carolina starting RB Chuba Hubbard went down after Week 4 and Dowdle wasted no time making his presence felt in the fantasy community. He was thrust into the lead back role, a job he was no stranger to from his days in Dallas. Dowdle exploded for 234 total yards on 26 touches with a touchdown for 30.9 fantasy points in Week 5 versus the Dolphins. He’d post a second game of over 30 fantasy points, and score double-digit points in six of seven games from Weeks 5-11 before fizzling out.

While managers likely weren’t happy with how Dowdle finished the season, overall, he registered as the RB20 in fantasy points per game.

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Kenneth Gainwell, Steelers (2% drafted)

Managers likely only drafted Gainwell as an insurance policy if they had Jaylen Warren. Well, it turned out that Gainwell had standalone value no one saw coming. He was among the best receiving backs in the NFL, finishing the fantasy season with 65 receptions for 422 yards and three receiving scores. Gainwell nearly clocked in as a top-25 RB in fantasy overall (RB26). He also performed well down the stretch in the fantasy playoffs, scoring 52.6 total points over Weeks 14-16.

Honorable Mentions: Blake Corum, Rams; Kareem Hunt, Chiefs; Woody Marks, Texans

Wide Receivers

Michael Wilson, Cardinals (0% drafted)

The fantasy dictionary likely has a picture of Wilson under the term “league-winner” after his performance late in 2025. A non-factor in pretty much every game leading up to Arizona’s Week 8 bye, Wilson took off from there, thanks largely due to injuries to Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendectomy/heel). After posting modest numbers in Weeks 9 and 10, Wilson exploded for a 15-185-0 line in Week 11 versus the Niners.

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He would post WR2, WR10, WR50, WR2, WR19, WR22 and WR7 finishes from Weeks 11-17. Wilson built up plenty of chemistry with backup QB Jacoby Brissett, finding the end zone five times over the last four games of the fantasy season. He ranked fifth on the list of players to show up on title teams on Yahoo. All of that production in the second half helped Wilson finish as the WR16 overall in fantasy.

Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (4% drafted)

Robinson may have just posted the quietest back-to-back seasons of 90+ catches in fantasy football history. And while he wasn’t able to justify much draft stock going into 2025, he’s proved himself a worthy pick going into 2026. Despite a shaky offense and instability at QB, Robinson was able to turn in a WR21 finish in fantasy this season, thanks to 92 catches on 140 targets for 1,014 yards and four TDs. He had a strong finish in Week 17 in PPR formats, with 11 catches for 113 yards against the Raiders. Robinson should be a trendy sleeper pick for 2026.

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Honorable Mentions: Quentin Johnston, Chargers; Troy Franklin, Broncos; Alec Pierce, Colts

Tight Ends

Harold Fannin Jr., Browns (4% drafted)

There was a bit of pre-draft hype surrounding the rookie out of Bowling Green despite being behind David Njoku on the tight end depth chart in Cleveland. Njoku was mired by injuries most of the 2025 campaign but even when he was healthy, Fannin was still the preferred option at TE for the Browns. He finished the fantasy season as the TE5 in total points at his position and TE9 in fantasy points per game (9.4).

He garnered early appeal off the waiver wire after scoring 10.1 fantasy points in the opener and was a consistent option all season at a position where consistency lacked. Fannin also came through in the fantasy playoffs with his best two performances coming in Week 14 (21.4 points) and Week 16 (17.5).

Honorable Mentions: Juwan Johnson, Saints; AJ Barner, Seahawks; Dalton Schultz, Texans

Whether you’re coming fresh off a win (or a loss) in the fantasy championship, or have been out of the running for weeks, this is an underrated time of year for learning fantasy lessons. What went right? What went wrong? And, to some degree, why?

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To that end, I’ve put together an analytical look at the best and worst picks from fantasy drafts back in the summer, round-by-round, based on their Yahoo average draft position and 2025 points per game through Week 17.

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Here are the biggest hits of the year in Rounds 1-10, plus five bonus picks in the late rounds!

Round 1: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

ADP: 8.5, RB4

PPG finish: RB1

Plenty of fantasy managers passed on Christian McCaffrey early in the first round of drafts for one simple reason: injury concerns. However, those who read my All-Renaissance Team article in early August got a different perspective. The one focusing on McCaffrey’s proven resiliency, rather than his flukey injury history, and his one-of-one upside when healthy.

Spoiler alert, McCaffrey stayed healthy all season and was as good as ever, leading all running backs with 22.31 points per game and racking up 17 touchdowns and 2,069 total yards with 96 receptions through the fantasy season. He was unfathomably consistent, scoring 15+ points in 14 games — an RB mark that’s only ever been topped by Emmitt Smith in 1995 (15 games) — and slipping down to single digits just once. CMC would have been a great pick at No. 1 overall — at an ADP of 8.5, he’s easily the best pick in the round.

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Round 2: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

ADP: 18.7, RB8

PPG finish: RB2

This was an incredibly close duel between Jonathan Taylor and Puka Nacua, as both were drafted in the middle of the second round and finished in the top two at their position. And yes, Nacua did finish at the top of his position in points per game (19.30), while Taylor trailed McCaffrey to finish as the RB2 in PPG. But Taylor also slightly outscored Nacua head-to-head in PPG, and he played every game (while Nacua missed one), so I gave the edge to the Colts running back at the slightly shallower position.

Ultimately, Taylor finished the fantasy season with 1,559 rushing yards and a league-high 18 rushing TDs, along with 365 yards and two scores receiving. He only dipped into single-digits twice all year and logged a whopping five games with 30+ points (and one with 48.1), the most by any player at any position in 2025. And while it doesn’t necessarily matter for these purposes, Taylor also did all this on a team that lost its quarterback and its mooring midseason. Nevertheless, he soldiered through to earn this title as best pick in Round 2.

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Round 3: Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals

ADP: 26.9, TE2

PPG finish: TE1

Trey McBride wasn’t just the No. 1 tight end in fantasy this season. He was the TE1 by roughly 2.50 points per game — with 15.18 on the year — and would have slotted in as the WR7 or the RB8 as well. He broke the single-season tight end receptions record on Sunday, in 16 games, passing Zach Ertz’s 116 and climbing to 119 by the end of Week 17. Most importantly, after struggling to find the end zone through his first few seasons — with just six TDs over three years — McBride scored 11 times in the 2025 fantasy season, tied (with Dallas Goedert, who made the bonus picks below) for most at the position.

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An elite tight end is a game-changer in fantasy, and McBride epitomized that advantage all year long. So much so that he narrowly beat out Josh Allen for the top pick of Round 3, despite Allen’s own position-topping season. For context, McBride outscored the TE12 (Tyler Warren) by more than six points per game, while Allen outscored the QB12 (Jared Goff) by 5.18.

Round 4: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

ADP: 34.1, WR13

PPG finish: WR2

This was a tough one, as James Cook III made a great case for this honor with 17.76 fantasy points per game and an RB6 finish. You could honestly go either way here, but I’m giving it to Jaxon Smith-Njigba primarily on the merits of his WR2 finish (and Cook having more single-digit days and a worse outing in championship week). Only Nacua averaged more than JSN among wide receivers, and Nacua missed two games, while JSN played the entire fantasy season.

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Smith-Njigba scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one contest and 14+ points in 13 of 16 games. There were questions in the offseason about whether JSN could thrive as the WR1, with DK Metcalf gone to Pittsburgh … and JSN proceeded to lead the league with an absurd 37% of his team’s receptions and 44.2% of his team’s receiving yards. He’ll be a locked-and-loaded WR1 in 2026 drafts … maybe even No. 1 overall.

Round 5: Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams

ADP: 43.8, WR19

PPG finish: WR8

Despite an unfortunate, injury-marred end to the fantasy season, Davante Adams was the best pick in the fifth round. He was a red-zone menace, racking up 14 touchdowns through the first 13 weeks of the year, including four games with multiple scores (and one with three). From Weeks 7-13, in the heart of the fantasy season, Adams caught a monstrous 11 touchdowns … no one else in the league had more than five over that span.

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Ultimately, Adams ended up as the WR8 in points per game despite being drafted as the WR19, at least partially out of August concerns over Matthew Stafford’s back injury (see below). It was quite a renaissance year after Adams had scored just eight touchdowns in each of the prior two seasons and was excellent evidence of the volatile nature of TDs in fantasy football.

Round 6: George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 56.1, WR22

PPG finish: WR6

One game into the 2025 season, it looked like George Pickens might be a bust in his new home of Dallas (logging just three catches for 30 yards). He then went on to post double-digit fantasy points in 11 straight games and finish as the WR6 in points per game on the year. The end of the season was a little spottier — Pickens scored single digits in three of his last four outings — but he was the WR3 in points per game through Week 13, helping position fantasy managers for the playoff run.

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As a huge Dak Prescott-truther through the offseason, I wish I was further in on Pickens, but the lesson here is pretty clear. Exceptional quarterback, exceptional offense, exceptional talent and a terrible defense to boot — all together formed a recipe for an excellent WR2 in Dallas — and WR1 in fantasy.

Round 7: D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears

ADP: 68.2, RB25

PPG finish: RB14

Another big hit from my offseason content, D’Andre Swift was my pick as the 2025 version of 2024 RB surprise Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard finished that season as the RB12 in points per game after winning a running back competition in a breakout offense … and Swift ended up as the RB14 as the head of Ben Johnson’s new committee for the breakout Bears offense.

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Swift put up a third straight season of 1,200+ scrimmage yards — the prior two should have been a clue to his potential this year — and he scored 10 touchdowns in 15 games during the fantasy season. He also hit 20+ fantasy points in three of the last five games of the year, including 22.10 in the quarterfinals and 20.90 in the championship. Tetairoa McMillan and Courtland Sutton were both in the running here, as both had strong WR2 seasons, but Swift outscored both in points per game at an arguably shallower position, so he takes home the hardware.

Round 8: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

ADP: 81.1, WR34

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PPG finish: WR9

Given his run through the fantasy playoffs, Chris Olave may be in the running for value pick of the entire draft, let alone Round 8. He was the WR9 in points per game on the season, but the WR4 from Week 6 on and the WR2 through the fantasy playoffs (behind only Nacua). Olave scored 17.5, 31.8 and 21.9 fantasy points in Weeks 15-17 and hit double digits in nine of his last 11 games in total.

This was comfortably Olave’s best season as a pro, and was especially impressive considering he was coming off a concussion-riddled 2024 and played with Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough at quarterback. Considering he single-handedly won managers their semifinals and came through again in the championship, Olave is likely one of the most rostered players on 2025 title teams.

Round 9: Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 81.7, QB10

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PPG finish: QB7

In tandem with his WR2 Pickens (see above) and his RB1 and kicker (see below), Dak Prescott was excellent all season, averaging the seventh-most PPG among quarterbacks and scoring the fifth-most in total while playing every single game. He led the NFL with 4,482 passing yards and threw 30 touchdowns through the fantasy season. And he scored 20+ points 10 times — no QB had more 20-point games on the year.

In a more lucrative round, Prescott might not have cracked this article, as he was technically a QB1 drafted as a QB1. But the next-best options were Tucker Kraft (who only played half the season) and Emeka Egbuka (who was only good for half the season). Prescott remained a strong starter the vast majority of the year, including 19.16 points in the semifinals and 22.68 in the ‘ship. He takes the edge in a middling round.

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Round 10: Brandon Aubrey, K, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 100.4, K1

PPG finish: K2

If it’s not obvious from Brandon Aubrey’s selection here in Round 10, this was not a great area in drafts. The only other legitimate contenders were Stefon Diggs and maybe Jakobi Meyers … who finished as the WR29 and WR43, respectively, in points per game. And while Aubrey didn’t quite finish as the No. 1 kicker — Jason Myers and Ka’imi Fairbairn narrowly outproduced him — he was extremely consistent and effective, and was particularly good down stretch, with 14.72 points per game over the last five weeks.

Bonus picks — the greatest values of all!

Some of the best values of this year’s drafts didn’t make the cut for this article because they were selected outside of the top-10 rounds. Among them:

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Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: 104.6, RB36

PPG finish: RB10

Travis Etienne Jr. is probably the frontrunner for Best Pick of 2025 after finishing as the RB10 in points per game on the season and RB8 after the Jaguars’ Week 8 bye. He scored 14+ fantasy points in seven of the last nine games (and three of the first four) and was an incredibly reliable fringe-RB1 despite his ADP in the double-digit rounds.

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots

ADP: 105.8, QB14

PPG finish: QB3

Along with his excellent case for NFL MVP, Drake Maye finished his second season with a strong case for fantasy MVP (at least at the quarterback position). He averaged 20.98 points per game, was extremely consistent week-to-week and finished the year with four straight games over 20 fantasy points and a league-winning 32.44 in the fantasy championship.

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Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

ADP: 113.0, TE13

PPG finish: TE5

Dallas Goedert might be one of the more surprising names in this column, but he tied Trey McBride for most touchdowns among tight ends (11) and ultimately finished as the TE5 in points per game and the TE3 in total points (missing just one game). It may not have been all that flashy, but Goedert was one of just a few TEs worth playing the entire season, and he ended with an excellent four-TD playoff run as well.

Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 123.6, RB45

PPG finish: RB13

Through the first half of the fantasy season, when Javonte Williams was a shocking RB8 in points per game, he was well on pace to be the pick of the year. A slight downturn in upside over the second half pulls him from that conversation, but he still finished with a mind-boggling 1,201 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns from the same draft range as Nick Chubb and Bhayshul Tuten.

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Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

ADP: 123.8, QB24

PPG finish: QB5

The NFL MVP race between Maye and Matthew Stafford was a fascinating one, and the fantasy QB MVP race was also tight. Stafford was drafted nearly two rounds after Maye — largely out of fears over his health — and finished the fantasy season just 0.65 PPG behind him. He threw a league-high 42 touchdown passes, with just eight interceptions (even after throwing three in Week 17), and trailed only Prescott in yards (with 4,448).

Whether you’re coming fresh off a win (or a loss) in the fantasy football championship, or have been out of the running for weeks, this is an underrated time of year for learning fantasy lessons. What went right? What went wrong? And, to some degree, why?

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To that end, I’ve put together an analytical look at the best and worst picks from fantasy drafts back in the summer, round-by-round, based on their Yahoo average draft position and 2025 points per game through Week 17.

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Here are the biggest misses of the year in Rounds 1-10!

Round 1: Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 5.9, WR2

PPG finish: WR39

Halfway through the season, it looked like Justin Jefferson was merely a mild bust, sitting at WR12 with only two touchdowns through Week 9. Perhaps his preseason hamstring injury had slowed him to start the year, or perhaps he just needed to find chemistry with J.J. McCarthy (who was injured for some of that stretch). But then the floor fell out completely, and Jefferson went on a truly inexplicable stretch in which he scored single-digit fantasy points in all but one game the rest of the year, including five points or fewer in four of his last five.

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From Week 10 on, Jefferson averaged just 5.54 fantasy points and was the WR66 in points per game. Heck, he barely outscored Van Jefferson over that span. And, because he’s Justin Jefferson, most fantasy managers just kept starting him, hoping for the correction. It never came, and the All-Pro’s 2025 season will long be remembered as one of the bigger busts in fantasy history. Here’s hoping his QB situation improves by 2026.

Round 2: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: 15.3, WR7

PPG finish: WR48

Brian Thomas Jr. did miss three games in the middle of this largely lost season, but that had very little to do with the disaster of this pick in the second round. In fact, those might have been three of the better weeks of the year, since you were able to confidently start someone else with a higher floor. In the 14 games he did play, Thomas averaged just 8.34 points per game, fewer than Troy Franklin or teammate Parker Washington (among many others).

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Moreover, he really only had four decent games all year, and those games mostly served to instill false confidence heading into subsequent duds. After his 19-point season high in Week 6, BTJ scored 4.6 in Week 7. After his 15.1-point Week 16, he scored 2.8 against the Broncos in the fantasy semifinals. Thomas was almost always on a different page from QB Trevor Lawrence, resulting in an abysmal catch rate of 52.3%, and BTJ finished with just 658 yards and two touchdowns — a stupendous dropoff from his rookie season.

Round 3: Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

ADP: 24.2, WR11

PPG finish: WR37

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Unlike Jefferson and Thomas, Ladd McConkey actually had a decent number of double-digit days in 2025 — eight to be exact — but it was his complete lack of a floor in the other eight games that made the Chargers wideout such a disappointing pick. McConkey scored fewer than eight points eight times and fewer than five points five times, including 1.70 in Week 14, 3.00 in Week 15 and 3.60 in the fantasy championship against Houston.

On the whole, McConkey was extremely touchdown dependent, and he only scored six times. After catching 82 balls for 1,149 yards as a rookie, he dropped to 66 catches and just 789 yards this year, with both Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen splitting targets and stats all season long. McConkey was drafted as a WR1 but finished as a borderline WR4, and didn’t really feel trustworthy at any point in 2025.

Round 4: Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks

ADP: 40.1, RB15

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PPG finish: RB29

Kenneth Walker III’s season totals — 232 touches for 1,176 yards and five touchdowns — and his PPG fantasy finish of RB29 really don’t tell the full story of how frustrating this pick was in 2025. Walker scored double-digit fantasy points just six times and he only did so consecutively once after September. Woven in between all his “big games” were 10 single-digit performances, including 3.3 points and 2.4 points in Weeks 14 and 15, and then 6.7 points in the fantasy championship (after a bafflingly good Week 16).

In fact, his two best games on the year came against the stellar Rams run defense immediately following at least three straight single-digit games — which means they likely came on most managers’ benches. Outside of those two Rams games, Walker averaged just 8.47 PPG in his other 14 contests. He lost a whopping 11 touchdowns to Zach Charbonnet, who remained involved just enough week-to-week to keep Walker well out of RB2 range most of the season.

Round 5: Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

ADP: 41.9, RB16

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PPG finish: RB41

I honestly forgot Chuba Hubbard was drafted this high, as he only looked the part for two weeks before seeing his fantasy season completely derailed by the rise of Rico Dowdle. It’s possible Hubbard might have returned value here in the fifth round if not for the calf injury that opened the door for Dowdle in Week 5, but after returning two weeks later, Hubbard was a non-factor almost the entirety of the season.

From Weeks 7-17, Hubbard only scored 7+ fantasy points twice and only reached double-digits once (in Week 13 against the Rams, when no one was starting him). He was the RB53 over that stretch and, outside of the Rams game, did not top 30 rushing yards or score a touchdown from Week 9 on. Despite the four-year, $33.2M contract extension he signed late last year, Hubbard was second-fiddle to a one-year free-agent pickup for the majority of 2025.

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Round 6: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 58.6, TE5

PPG finish: TE27

Oof. If you drafted T.J. Hockenson here in the sixth round, here’s hoping you found someone on waivers after Week 1 or 2. The Vikings tight end made Justin Jefferson’s bust look like a Pro Bowl season. Hockenson managed double-digit fantasy points just once all year — 13.4 in Week 3 against the Bengals (who turned out to be the softest matchup in the league) — scoring just three touchdowns and finishing with 51 catches for 438 yards.

He averaged a career-low 8.6 yards per reception and 29.2 yards per game and was outscored by names like AJ Barner and Colby Parkinson in fantasy points per game. Somehow, Hock finished the season rostered in 62% of Yahoo leagues, but I can’t imagine anyone was starting him over the second half of the season. As with Jefferson, maybe he’ll get a QB upgrade in 2026, but barring a miracle, Hockenson should not be drafted as a TE1 next season.

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Round 7: Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

ADP: 62.9, TE7

PPG finish: TE23

Mark Andrews was technically drafted a little later than Hockenson, and he technically finished slightly higher as well. But he suffered from the same sickness as Kenneth Walker III — the one where he would only pop off when everyone benched him, and then disappoint immediately afterward when managers considered starting him again. He started the year with absolute duds of 1.0 and 0.9 points and was justifiably benched across the fantasy community before his 24.1-point Week 3 explosion against Detroit.

The only stretch where Andrews showed some consistent life was Weeks 9-11 (12.9 PPG, thanks in part to a 35-yard fake-tush-push rushing touchdown), but then from Week 12 on, he was the TE39 with just 3.45 points per game. To anyone who pinpointed Andrews’ three-and-a-half good games in 2025, congratulations. To everyone else, condolences over a wasted mid-round pick.

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Round 8: Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

ADP: 80.4, RB27

PPG finish: RB109

Holy cannoli. Kaleb Johnson might go down as one of the worst NFL rookies, relative to expectation, that we’ve ever seen. When Pittsburgh drafted him in the third round back in April, he looked like the heir apparent to Najee Harris, and his ADP ended up higher than Jaylen Warren’s — and much higher than Kenneth Gainwell’s — as a result.

Johnson ultimately scored 8.3 fantasy points on the season. No, not averaged 8.3 … scored 8.3. In total. Between embarrassing special teams blunders and healthy scratches, he put together 69 rushing yards on 28 carries all year. The only good news here is that he was so non-existent that fantasy managers were able to jettison Johnson from their rosters before the midpoint of the season and move on. Still, this was a legendary bust for Pittsburgh and for fantasy managers who reached on the rookie.

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Round 9: Jordan Mason, RB, Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 88.9, RB30

PPG finish: RB43

Jordan Mason was probably one of the quieter “busts” of the 2025 fantasy season, as his ADP did trickle all the way down here to the ninth round. But, back in the summer, a lot of fantasy analysts saw him as a breakout candidate with a chance to supplant Aaron Jones Sr. as the RB1 in Minnesota. Instead, Mason managed just 159 touches for 715 yards and six touchdowns, and really only had one great fantasy performance, in Week 3 against the Bengals with Jones out.

Over the four games Jones missed — Weeks 3-7, with the bye in the middle — Mason was the RB16, which might have raised some hopes and even instigated a trade acquisition or two. But from Week 8 on, he was the clear backup and averaged just 4.96 points per game (RB59 over that span). Considering you could have had Jaylen Warren at the same ADP, Mason ended up being a major miss here in 2025.

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Round 10: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns

ADP: 91.9, WR37

PPG finish: WR70

As the theoretical WR1 for Cleveland with a history of flashing fantasy talent in small bursts, Jerry Jeudy was an intriguing pick here in the 10th round. Unfortunately, things never really materialized in a lackluster offense led by a string of inconsistent quarterbacks. Jeudy’s only double-digit performances came in Week 10 (after he posted a goose egg in his previous outing) and in Week 14 (after three straight games with fewer than five fantasy points). In other words, his only decent outings came on fantasy benches.

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In total, Jeudy finished with just 48 catches for 585 yards and two touchdowns, setting or matching his career lows for a full season. He was outscored by Chimere Dike and Mack Hollins in points per game (among others), and should have ended the year rostered in far fewer than 62% of Yahoo leagues.

When Caleb Williams shared the sentiments last week, he seemed to believe them.

The Chicago Bears were fresh off winning an overtime thriller against the Green Bay Packers. A prime-time matchup with another NFC playoff team, the San Francisco 49ers, loomed.

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Williams was asked whether he derived any “individual joy” from leading a team to the playoffs. So he explained.

“I wasn’t the biggest, I wasn’t the strongest, I wasn’t the tallest, fastest, whatever the case may be,” Williams said. “I get drafted here, told that I’m not a special player. I’m told that I’m not a good fit here. I’m told that Coach and I won’t work. I’m told I can’t win here.

“I know that’s going to keep going on. But I do take a little satisfaction and things like that, being able to help this team … get to the playoffs.”

The perspective was striking.

Williams was the first overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft by a Bears team confident enough in their selection to essentially begin collaborating with their quarterback before getting on the clock.

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Williams was long the favorite to be the first overall pick of the draft when he turned pro, the question more of when the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner would choose to take his first overall crown than if.

And yet: Whether because he was determined to put a chip on his shoulder or because he is still processing the instability of his rookie year (hello, two head coaches and three offensive coordinators), Williams framed his role in the Bears’ first playoff berth in five years as a feat of overcoming odds.

“My goal isn’t just to get to the playoffs,” Williams said. “My goal is to win and win big.”

Sunday’s 42-38 Niners win need not tamper expectations for Williams, who accounted for 348 offensive yards and two scores. But the quarterback matchup of the first overall pick in one draft and the last overall pick in another did highlight again how remarkable Brock Purdy’s journey is.

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Because if Williams truly was told he wasn’t the biggest, strongest, tallest or fastest — well, plenty of NFL talent evaluators didn’t spend time telling Purdy he was or wasn’t anything at all.

Now, he’s red-hot after back-to-back five-touchdown performances, and he’s ready to once again be an outlier in a largely homogenous playoff field of quarterbacks.

“Brock’s been playing his ass off,” 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said Sunday night. “Made some huge plays in this game, kept some drives alive with his legs, made some off-schedule plays and was an assassin out there throughout the whole day.”

Purdy’s draft status, injury history suggest he should not be performing as he currently is

Entering the final week of the NFL regular season, 12 teams have clinched a playoff spot. Four more are alive and contending for the final two spots.

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Their quarterback profiles are primarily cut from the same cloth.

Fourteen of the 16 teams who could compete in the playoffs are starting quarterbacks drafted in the first round. Five of those quarterbacks weren’t just selected in the first round but also were selected as the first overall of their class.

Reigning Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts is an outlier to leave the board in the second round: The Philadelphia Eagles selected him 53rd overall in 2020.

[Get more 49ers news: San Francisco team feed]

Purdy is the only playoff-eligible starting quarterback who was selected later than the second round, the 49ers famously selecting him with the last overall pick and crowning him 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant.

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Purdy’s draft slot is not a new playoffs storyline. He has played six postseason games for the 49ers across the 2022 and 2023 NFL seasons, including a Super Bowl.

And yet, on Sunday night against the Bears, he seemed to unlock another gear. It wasn’t just that Purdy completed 24 of 33 passes for 303 yards and three passing touchdowns after throwing a pick 6 on the first snap of the game (a decision that Shanahan said was the correct process, even if it prompted an unhelpful result). Or that Purdy rushed for another two touchdowns, en route to the 4-point victory in a wildly entertaining shootout.

It was how Purdy played against an admittedly shaky Bears defense that wowed.

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The last overall pick facing the first overall pick didn’t look like his draft status, nor did he look like a quarterback who had missed eight games this season due to a right big toe injury.

He threw darts in the air and escaped defenders with his feet.

With 5:01 to play in the third quarter, the game tied at 28, Purdy faked a handoff to running back Brian Robinson Jr. then rolled out to his left. He pumped toward the end zone but didn’t release without a clear target. Then, Bears defensive linemen Austin Booker and Andrew Billings began to close in. Purdy pulled back and then swooped in between the two linemen, baiting Bears defenders toward him and away from fullback Kyle Juszczyk. With Juszczyk now open, Purdy hit his target.

Touchdown, 49ers. Purdy queued up his “Dougie” dance, and not for the first time that night.

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“Having quarterbacks who could do some things off-schedule is a huge part of our success,” Shanahan said. “He made me extremely nervous and then he made me extremely happy, which happens sometimes.”

And while the feisty Bears would tie and then pass the 49ers in the fourth quarter with 10 unanswered points, Purdy had one more trick up his sleeve.

Facing second-and-10 from the 38 with 2:23 to go, Purdy stayed calm in the pocket and threw a 21 air-yards dart upfield to none other than Jauan Jennings, the receiver he’d targeted on his opening pick 6. Jennings weaved the remaining 17 yards to the end zone for what would be the game-winning score.

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And the 49ers, despite the absence of several key players, kept their No. 1 seed hopes alive.

“It’s huge,” Shanahan said. “I’ve been so proud of the guys throughout the whole year, proud of them today. It’s a hell of a deal to have the opportunity to play for the one seed. And these guys have earned it.”

With No. 1 seed on line, can Purdy’s streak continue vs. stingy Seahawks defense?

To clinch the No. 1 seed, and the first-round NFC bye, the 49ers must beat the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday night.

The two teams squared off in Week 1 of the season, the 49ers outlasting the Seahawks in Seattle, 17-13. Purdy threw for 294 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. San Francisco’s roster was at fuller strength then.

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Sure, an offensive core was down receiver Brandon Aiyuk amid contract and rehab disagreements as well as receiver Deebo Samuel, after they’d traded him in the offseason to the Washington Commanders. But this contest was before Purdy missed eight games with a variant of turf toe and before tight end George Kittle missed six games between hamstring and ankle injuries.

Star linebacker Fred Warner had not yet fractured and dislocated his ankle, nor had defensive ends Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams yet torn their ACLs.

The cast of characters hosting the Seahawks in this finale has shifted since their last meeting. But the 49ers believe they’re battle-tested. Facing a Seattle defense ranked second in scoring and sixth in yards allowed, Purdy and Co. will face a steeper challenge.

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Then again, to quote the Bears’ Williams, isn’t all of this an uphill battle against the odds?

The unlikelihood of Purdy initially earning the 49ers starting job from a room that included third overall pick Trey Lance is evidenced in how top-heavy this year’s playoff-bound quarterbacks are.

And now, in the eight games he’s been available for this year, Purdy has posted numbers akin to those highly drafted quarterbacks. His 104.2 passer ratings ranks fourth behind Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff — who were drafted third, first and first overall, respectively. Purdy’s 2.5 passing touchdowns per game rank behind only Stafford, his 7.1 EPA/game second to Maye, per Next Gen Stats.

If all of these numbers belonged to Williams in Chicago, they would be — contrary to the quarterback’s lens — statistically more likely.

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For Purdy, they should not cease to impress. Teaming up with one of the league’s best play callers in Shanahan and one of the league’s best weapons in Christian McCaffrey helps. But Purdy is not just operating among them. He is elevating them.

Shanahan declined to confirm whether Purdy’s playing at the peak of his four NFL years thus far. But he didn’t deny the possibility.

“I don’t know, I’m not the best historian,” Shanahan said. “I feel like he’s had some good stretches. I mean, especially going back to ’23 and ’22.

“But I mean, he’s playing as good as it gets right now.”

The final week of the NFL regular season is here!

I had that “whoa, it’s almost over” feeling yesterday when I went to look at Week 18 opening odds and realized my odds screen is at the end of its scroll. Normally, the software pulls look-ahead lines and is pre-programmed at the beginning of the year to schedule out every NFL game and hold some of the prices previously listed. But now the scroll has hit rock bottom and there is nothing left besides a playoff abyss where the matchups are unknown.

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My first point of attack in trying to beat the Week 18 lines was to evaluate the stakes in each game. I have held firm that betting on a motivation factor is proven to be unwise when back testing recent years. Instead of searching for peaks and valleys in perceived motivation, I went looking for spots where a team may sit everyone in a meaningless game. The injury reports are going to be lengthy, a combination of aches and pains and real injuries. Betting into some of that asymmetry early in the week before practice and injury reports are submitted can provide massive value gaps from closing lines.

We will probably see some of the biggest line movement this week of the entire season for this reason. So, here are a few spots to bet now.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 36.5)

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 41)

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 50.5)

I am grouping these matchups and betting analysis together because the basis of the handicap is the same throughout. There is an imbalance in stakes for these teams and I think that will play a large factor in injury news, subsequent line movement and value. I like the favorites in every game here, playing them against the spread at the current numbers.

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The Packers have locked in the No. 7 seed in the NFC postseason bracket. Not only do they not care about this game, health is the priority because next week they are absolutely going to play a road playoff game. It’s unknown if Green Bay’s backup quarterback Malik Willis will be able to suit up — but I would argue that the Packers should start Clayton Tune regardless because the health of the best backup QB is very important for the playoffs as well.

On the other side, while it’s unlikely that JJ McCarthy returns for this game, the Vikings would opt to play him in a home season finale to get him more reps if he’s able to give it a go. I expect Justin Jefferson to be active, while I don’t expect Green Bay’s main offensive to play much at all. Being on the road further helps the Packers opt to play no one. Vikings by a score is a best bet.

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The Commanders are at Philadelphia for Week 18, and the Eagles are locked into the playoffs but do have a seeding race to play for. They are currently the No. 3 seed, but can move up to No. 2 with a win over Washington and a Bears loss to the Lions. Considering the tightly packed NFC with no standout team, the two-seed could mean the entire NFC bracket at home if there is an upset with the Seahawks or 49ers early on. The Eagles are also home, which gives them a boost to play guys in front of home fans, but also an easy out for Washington to go the other way. I expect Josh Johnson starts again at quarterback.

[Check out all of Yahoo’s sports betting content here in our new betting hub]

Something to look for later in the week will be player prop unders on the Eagles, or live in-game unders. Once they control the lead — or hear from the Chicago/Detroit game overlapping at the same time, they should be conservative with player health as a priority.

The Lions go to the Windy City for the second game of a brewing divisional rivalry between Ben Johnson’s new team and his old one. However the Lions have nothing to play for, while the Bears want to win to secure the No. 2 seed. While Detroit preaches toughness, playing through the final whistle and always playing hard — I’m not sure that actually translates to a Week 18 game with nothing on the line.

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We’ve never seen a Dan Campbell-led Lions team in this situation, where there is nothing on the line. I think this could mean guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs could sit or play much fewer reps than usual.

Bet: Vikings -6.5, Eagles -7.5, Bears -2.5 (straight bets, not a parlay)

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 49.5) at San Francisco 49ers

This game decides who gets the overall No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Super Bowl is in Santa Clara at the 49ers home Levi’s Stadium, so the 49ers would have the opportunity to play the rest of the season at home if they win this game. The 49ers come into the game with six straight wins, five of them by double digits and covering the spread in every one. This has elevated San Francisco in market-based power ratings to the NFL’s fifth-best team.

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I feel some of that rating is a bit overrated, as the schedule and strength of the opponent has been very weak. The 49ers beat the Cardinals, Panthers, Browns, Titans and Colts with Phillip Rivers in this string of games. Going against the Seahawks’ elite defense, speed, coaching and game planning with large stakes on the game provides a much more difficult task. I expect as the week progresses, Seattle takes action and becomes the sharp side to want in this game — so take them early now at -1.

Bet: Seahawks -1

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For the final podcast of the year, Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman break down the latest on NPB stars Tatsuya Imai and Kazuma Okamoto as their MLB posting windows close, analyzing where they could sign and how their profiles contrast with previous Japanese imports like Munetaka Murakami and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The guys take a hard look at the differences between pitching and hitting projections for international talent, highlighting Imai’s adaptability and Okamoto’s ready-made bat for contending teams. They discuss the best roster fits for Imai, focusing on the Giants, Mets, and Phillies, among others, and debate which teams actually make sense for the 3B slugger Okamoto.

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Later in the show, they open up the Bar-B-Cast mailbag and answer questions about Juan Soto, the Dodgers’ championship window and some baseball easter eggs in the latest Knives Out film, Wake Up Dead Man.

Finally, they close the episode with a round of Turbo Mode, highlighting a bevy of signings across the league in Cincinnati, Chicago, Seattle & more. Also, a special shout-out to the Buffalo Sabres.

1:53 – Why is it taking so long for Japanese stars Tatsuya Imai and Kazuma Okamoto to sign?

14:45 – Where will Imai sign?

24:50 – Where will Okamoto sign?

31:30 – Baseball Bar-B-Cast Mailbag: Mets, Dodgers, Knives Out & more

1:05:10 – Turbo Mode: Reds, Cubs, Mariners & more

🖥️ Watch this full episode on YouTube

Check out the rest of the Yahoo Sports podcast family at https://apple.co/3zEuTQj or at yahoosports.tv