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Happy holidays from yours truly! I hope the last couple of days have been time for you all to relax and enjoy time with friends and family as the season and year wind down. However, we’ve got work to do. There’s a fantasy football championship on the line.

Hopefully, the action on Thursday got you out in front of the most important matchup on the schedule. However, if you’re looking for some players to monitor, I’ve got a couple from all of the remaining contests worth watching to close out our playoff runs.

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Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers

C.J. Stroud was on a tear after his return. He was averaging 246.3 passing yards per game, and even dropped three touchdowns on the Cardinals in Week 15. But his outing against the Raiders has me concerned. Their defense only pressured Stroud on 19.4% of his dropbacks, but his passing success rate and yardage total dropped. The Chargers’ pass rush, which has limited passers to fewer than 200 yards in nine games, may create even more problems for the Texans’ aerial attack.

I have to assume Justin Herbert’s MVP candidacy will gain national media consideration if the Chargers win. He hit season-highs in passing success rate and EPA per dropback against Dallas. Plus, the Bolts’ QB is averaging 6.7 touches per game. He had hand surgery three weeks ago! We all thought the Texans’ defense was impenetrable throughout most of the season. But after stumbles against the Cardinals and Raiders, Herbert may be catching the Texans at the right time.

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Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers

The downturn in opportunity for Isaiah Likely has been baffling. He had back-to-back games with six targets in pivotal, divisional matchups. Both in which even more chaotic events negated touchdowns for Likely. Since then, he hasn’t had the ball thrown his way. Despite being on the field for over half of the team’s dropbacks, Likely has given doughnuts in his box score to fantasy managers. Independent of who starts under center for the Ravens, you’d think OC Todd Monken would try to get another option in the passing game going in order to keep the offense on schedule.

I keep hoping we’ll see more of Jayden Reed, but it could be that his on-field deployment doesn’t match the identity of the offense. Since his return, the Packers’ primary slot man has a receiving aDOT of 6.2 air yards. Meanwhile, Jordan Love has been averaging 12.8 and 10.5 air yards per attempt on his throws. Even Malik Willis was 9.2 after Love got hurt last week vs. the Bears. Green Bay is in the playoffs already after the Lions lost on Christmas, but both QBs are hurt, Christian Watson got banged up two weeks ago and Romeo Doubs hurt his wrist last week. Reed should play a larger role in a push to get the offense back on track, but his past usage doesn’t help make the case.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins

If I had Bucky Irving on my roster in the fantasy championship, I’d be terrified. Sure, he’s handled 63% of the RB carries since coming back in Week 13. But they’ve been empty-calorie touches. Rachaad White has taken most of the receiving work. Irving didn’t get a single target against the Panthers. Even worse, Sean Tucker is the goal-line back, with 88% of the carries from inside the five-yard line. Without a fantasy-relevant role, Irving is, at best, an RB2 for Week 17.

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On the bright side, Darren Waller has earned at least five targets in the last two games. Somewhat better, HC Mike McDaniel has moved Waller into the slot on 39.6% of his snaps. His 38.1% target share from the interior has given him more lay-up looks to continue producing. However, on the flip side, his target quality has plummeted with the QB change. Last week alone, Waller was at a 60% catchable target rate as Quinn Ewers tried his best against the Bengals. The opportunity should make Waller a viable TE2, but Ewers’ accuracy may be an issue.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Only a subset of the fantasy community got to benefit from Kenneth Walker III’s 164-yard outburst in primetime. Now, gamers who are still fighting for a championship and single-slate advocates get to ponder the same conundrum. Walker outproduced Zach Charbonnet. But Charbonnet still had all of the goal-line touches and out-targeted Walker. Somebody’s going to come up with the bright idea to start both of them against the Panthers, but correctly selecting the better of the two has been one of this season’s biggest discussions.

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If you need an explosive catch, Jalen Coker has you covered. Over his last five games, the Panthers’ slot man has at least one catch of 15 yards or more. And he’s more than just a big-play option in the receiving game. Coker has become Bryce Young’s reliable WR2 with 14 of his 18 receptions resulting in either a first down or a score. His ability to beat press coverage, especially in obvious passing situations, has put Carolina on their path to leading the NFC South. However, as the Seahawks’ coverage has been stingy against all WRs not named Puka Nacua, Young and Coker will need another strong outing to keep their lead over the rest of the division.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals

Ironically, Jacoby Brissett is the Cardinals’ version of Joe Flacco, who’ll be on the opposite sideline. Brissett only has one win since taking over for Kyler Murray. But his 41.6 attempts per game are keeping fantasy managers with Michael Wilson and Trey McBride happy. He’s thrown for over 200 passing yards and at least one TD in his 10 starts. Cincinnati’s secondary has made some improvements against WRs. But the Bengals’ historic inability to cover TEs should keep Brissett as a viable starter in Week 17.

Ja’Marr Chase hasn’t caught a TD pass from Joe Burrow since Week 2. But on the flip side, let’s not get greedy. Burrow has thrown the ball to his best friend 12.3 times per game since coming back from his turf toe injury. The result has been 98.8 yards per game or 17.8 PPR PPG. Simply put, we haven’t been lacking in fantasy production. However, since the Cardinals’ secondary has been something of a problem for Arizona, it’d be nice to see Chase doing his own version of the Griddy after leading the team in targets yet again.

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

At least against the Lions, the Steelers were trying to do their best impression of the Bears’ offense. Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren combined for 31 touches, with both showing off their individual skillsets. Warren ripped off two long runs for TDs after breaking multiple tackles. And Gainwell scored on one of the most improbable receptions of the season. Between Gainwell’s 5.3 targets per game and Warren’s 11 attempts a week, Pittsburgh has the personnel to keep Cleveland’s defense away from Aaron Rodgers without DK Metcalf.

Every week that Harold Fannin Jr. plays, his 2026 ADP goes up a round. Shedeur Sanders has looked for his rookie TE 8.5 times a game over the last month. Granted, Cleveland’s only other pass-catching option is Jerry Jeudy. But Fannin has caught over half of his targets and averaged 5.2 yards after the catch per reception, making him a strong option at the position for Week 17.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

The part of Trevor Lawrence’s outbursts over the last couple of games that only fantasy gamers would appreciate is his rushing. HC Liam Coen was doing the same for Baker Mayfield, as Mayfield hit career highs in attempts and yards in 2023 and 2024. Lawrence has already surpassed his season-high total of five TDs with seven on the ground, and he’s just 18 yards short of resetting his single-season rushing mark. We already watched the 49ers dice up the Colts’ secondary, but with Lawrence’s mobility, we should see him in the top 12 again after Sunday.

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Alright, I understand why the Colts brought Philip Rivers out of retirement. I know the 49ers’ defense has dealt with injuries. But they got through the Colts’ offensive line on a third of Rivers’ dropbacks. His response was to have a passing aDOT of 9.6 air yards, which was the third-most of any Colts’ QB this season. And he was getting the ball out quickly to his receivers, too (2.41 average time to throw). At worst, it brings his receivers back onto our fantasy radars, with the Jaguars offense likely putting the Colts into a pass-friendly game script.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Kayshon Boutte and TreVeyon Henderson have combined for 5.8 targets per game since Boutte’s return in Week 12. The potential for additional work should have someone like Stefon Diggs as a high-end WR2, but it’s been tough to pinpoint his role. Diggs has been around a 60% route rate in three of his last four games. His 10 targets were the most he’d seen in a single game in almost two months. We would like to start anyone against the Jets’ defense, but how often Diggs is on the field has me hesitating.

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Brady Cook averaged 0.8 air yards per attempt during the first half against the Saints last week. New Orleans only pressured him on 20% of his dropbacks. Cook only generated 74 yards through the air. The Patriots’ pass rush and coverage are above the league average in limiting opposing QBs. As Cook continues to flounder, there’s no reason to trust anyone attached to the Jets in Week 17.

New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans

Chris Olave was already having a career year before last week. Through Week 15, he was hitting season-high marks in targets per game (9.2) and PPR PPG (14.7). Taking on 16 targets against the Jets certainly helped his case for 2025 being his best season yet. And after seeing multiple receivers hit double-digit PPR points against the Titans (Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Jerry Jeudy, Jakobi Meyers, etc.), Olave will be right at the intersection of talent and opportunity for Week 17.

We’ve now seen three consecutive 100-yard games for Tony Pollard. Of course, part of the success lies with the veteran RB. He’s been up to a 20% forced missed tackle rate over his last three games. But the other portion goes to the Titans’ offensive line. Pollard has been able to enjoy 1.05 adjusted yards before contact since Week 14. The Saints have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards per game to opposing rushers since their bye, setting up Pollard for a strong finish to the fantasy season.

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New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders

I want to start Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton and Theo Johnson. Well, at least relative to their respective expected outcomes as mid-to-low-end WR2s or 3s or fringe TE1s. But the offense is different now. Slower, to be exact. Jaxson Dart was averaging 29.2 pass attempts per game over his first six starts. However, he was down to 13 against the Vikings. Total offensive plays have been down with Dart back under center. The Raiders haven’t quit either and continue to put opposing QBs under duress. If they continue to get to Dart, I’d expect fewer attempts for his pass-catchers.

Ashton Jeanty belongs in the league. His ability to create explosives as a rusher and a receiver was on full display against one of the toughest defenses in the league last Sunday. All he needs is a bit of space to make a play successful. Luckily, the Giants have allowed not only the third-most rushing yards per game over their last six games, but the third-most yards before contact. There’s no question about how often we’ll see the ball in or moving toward Jeanty’s hands. But more-efficient touches are what we need for fantasy productions.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills

Let’s assume the Bills keep the game competitive throughout the entire contest. I want to see if OC Kevin Patulo asks Jalen Hurts to open up as a passer. Since Hurts’ multi-turnover snafu against the Chargers, the Eagles’ QB1 has averaged less than seven air yards per attempt. His total yardage hasn’t crested 200 without a pick since late November. So if Josh Allen has his way, Hurts will need to be a solid thrower of the ball in order for the Eagles to walk away with a win.

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We can all agree that Josh Allen’s superpower is his mobility. Not just strolling through defenses for 40-yard touchdowns (no, I’m not still upset about Cincinnati’s loss), but within the pocket and buying time for passing lanes to open up. But his foot injury should have everyone on edge. Allen didn’t attempt to run in the second half. Accordingly, the Bills’ yards per drive and third-down conversion rate plummeted. There’s no doubt Allen will be out there to ensure Buffalo makes the playoffs, but his level of effectiveness should be on everyone’s mind.

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers

Sure, DJ Moore (and Caleb Williams, of course) was the hero against the Packers last Saturday. And Rome Odunze’s continued absence should entice fantasy managers to keep Moore in their lineups. But he only had seven targets that night. Olamide Zaccheaus only had one fewer pass thrown his way through regulation. Moore’s connection with Williams and Williams’ reliance on Moore for big plays should keep the veteran WR as a top-24 option. But putting him in the top-12 discussion might be a bridge too far.

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Coincidentally, Jauan Jennings isn’t too dissimilar from Moore. Let’s assume Ricky Pearsall needs another week to get right. George Kittle’s ankle injury will have the veteran TE limited at best. In other words, you’d think the targets would condense around Jennings. But without Pearsall in primetime, Jennings was at an 18% target rate. However, he led the WRs in targets in obvious passing situations and when Brock Purdy threw into the end zone. As a result, Jennings’ contextualized usage should keep him in our lineups for Week 17.

Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons

There’s a scenario where the Rams have a clear playoff picture prior to kickoff. It’s not a certainty, but between now and Monday night (and for Week 18, to boot), motivation may be in question for L.A. But for Matthew Stafford, there’s nothing but certainty. Stafford sits at 40 passing TDs, seven more than the next QB (Jared Goff). We’ve seen HC Sean McVay ensure his guys get their season-long accolades. Confirming his QB makes a case for the NFL’s greatest honor shouldn’t be much of a surprise.

Kyle Pitts Sr. may not have turned in a season that fantasy managers expected. However, it’s been better than most would want to admit. Pitts sits behind only Trey McBride in the amount of yards and first downs generated. And if you’re a stat nerd (like me), Pitts’ 1.75 yards per route run ranks third amongst all TEs. Again, it’s taken Drake London missing time and Darnell Mooney playing on a busted collarbone for us to get back to some semblance of Pitts’ historic rookie year. But, as much as some won’t want to admit, we’re seeing it through four months of action.

Quintrevion Wisner, the Texas Longhorns’ leading rusher over the past two seasons, is entering the NCAA transfer portal, according to his agent.

The 20-year-old Texas native has recorded 597 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground this season while missing three games due to a hamstring injury. Over a full season in 2024, he picked up 1,064 yards on the ground and five touchdowns, plus 311 receiving yards on 44 receptions while helping the Longhorns reach the College Football Playoff semifinals.

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Wisner, who is entering the final year of his eligibility, becomes the fourth Texas running back to enter the portal this season, joining CJ Baxter, Jerrick Gibson and Rickey Stewart Jr. He is one of many departures on Steve Sarkisian’s roster.

The 6-foot, 194-pound running back sat out those games in September with an injury, but finished the regular season strong with a 155-yard performance during a 27-17 win over then-undefeated Texas A&M, who were ranked No. 3 at the time.

The Longhorns will finish their season on Dec. 31 with a Citrus Bowl matchup against Michigan.

The Week 17 NFL schedule features a smorgasbord of holiday delights.

For starters, there are a trio of matchups between double-digit-win teams (five of whom have already punched their postseason tickets, and all of whom are battling for playoff seeding).

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There’s also a clash of division rivals headed in opposite directions (with one firmly in the playoffs and the other on the verge of being eliminated).

And there’s an interconference prime-time battle in which both squads are in must-win mode — and both may not have their starting quarterbacks.

Which brings us to our holiday gift to you: a deep dive into current and historical NFL betting trends related to all five of these matchups (four of which feature point spreads of 3 points or less).

(All listed odds are via BetMGM and subject to change.)

Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

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Money line: Texans +110/Chargers -130

• Houston barely extended its winning streak to seven in Week 16, escaping with a 23-21 victory over the Raiders.

The Texans never came close to covering as 14-point home favorites, snapping the team’s 5-0 ATS run.

• The Chargers have won and covered four in a row — the most recent triumph a 34-17 rout of Dallas as 1.5-point road underdogs on Sunday.

It was Los Angeles’ third straight outright victory as an underdog, following upsets of Philadelphia (22-19 in Week 14) and Kansas City (16-13 in Week 15).

• Since starting the season with three straight losses and non-covers, Houston is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS. During this stretch, the Texans are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road, and 4-1 SU and ATS as underdogs.

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Meanwhile, Los Angeles is on positive runs of 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS overall, 4-0 SU and ATS at home and 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS as a favorite.

One lengthy NFL betting trend working against the Bolts: They haven’t covered the spread in five consecutive games since a 5-0 ATS run to start the 2014 season.

• Houston’s top-ranked defense has surrendered 20-plus points in consecutive games for the first time in 2025. However, only two opponents have scored more than three TDs against the Texans: Seattle (27-19 win in Week 7) and Jacksonville (36-29 loss in Week 10).

The Chargers’ defense has been similarly dominant, holding four straight opponents to less than 20 points. Furthermore, that defense has surrendered more than 20 points just once in the last eight games.

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• Chargers QB Justin Herbert had a league-low three interceptions in the 2024 regular season, then threw four in last year’s wild-card playoff loss at Houston.

Herbert has thrown 12 picks this season, including at least one in 10 of the last 13 games. This week, he faces a Texans defense that has recorded 17 interceptions (tied with the Chargers for third-most in the league).

Herbert’s odds to throw an interception Saturday: -140.

Kickoff: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

Moneyline: Ravens +180/Packers -220

• Baltimore and Green Bay experienced similar negative outcomes in Week 16. Both teams blew late fourth-quarter leads, lost their star quarterbacks to injury and are now fighting for their playoff lives — although thanks to Detroit’s 23-10 Christmas Day loss to Minnesota, the Packers are now in the postseason.

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Facing New England at home, the Ravens squandered an 11-point advantage with nine minutes to go and fell 28-24 as 3.5-point favorites on Sunday Night Football.

Twenty-four hours earlier, the Packers frittered away a 10-point lead with two minutes to play at Chicago, losing 22-16 in overtime as 1-point underdogs.

Adding injury to insult, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (back) and Green Bay’s Jordan Love (concussion) didn’t finish their respective games last week. Both are listed as questionable for Saturday night’s showdown at Lambeau Field.

• The Ravens have followed a five-game SU winning streak by losing three of their last four. They’re also mired in a 1-5 ATS slump (all as the favorite).

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On the bright side, Baltimore is riding a four-game road winning streak (3-1 ATS), with the defense surrendering a total of 41 points (10.3 per contest).

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• The Packers, who preceded their loss at Chicago with a 34-26 defeat at Denver, have lost consecutive games for the second time in 2025.

Since starting the season with blowout home wins over Detroit (27-13) and Washington (27-18), Green Bay is mired in ATS slumps of 4-9 overall, 3-8 as a favorite and 2-3 at home.

The good news for the Packers: They haven’t endured a three-game losing skid since a four-game slide from Weeks 4-8 in 2023 (bye week included).

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• While Love’s status for Saturday’s game is in doubt, there are two NFL betting trends worth noting in case he does suit up:

The Packers’ quarterback has thrown for less than 235 yards in six of his last seven starts (and nine of 15 overall) and completed fewer than 20 passes in five of his last six outings (and 10 of 15 overall).

Then again, the Ravens’ secondary yields 242.7 passing yards per game (fifth-most in the NFL). Last week, second-year Patriots quarterback Drake Maye threw for a career-best 380 yards at Baltimore.

• Ravens RB Derrick Henry had 128 rushing yards on just 18 carries against New England, his best outing since torching Buffalo for 169 yards in Week 1.

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Henry has posted back-to-back 100-yard outings, and he’s eclipsed 90 rushing yards in three straight games and six of his last 10.

On Saturday, the two-time NFL rushing champ is projected for 81.5 rushing yards — against a Packers defense that hasn’t allowed a single player to reach 70 rushing yards in the last seven weeks.

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Moneyline: Jaguars -275/Colts +225

• Jacksonville went on the road in Week 16 and pummeled the Broncos 34-20 as a 3.5-point underdog.

In the process, the Jaguars snapped Denver’s 11-game winning streak and extended their own winning streak to six in a row.

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Jacksonville covered the spread in all six games during its current heater — the team’s first 6-0 ATS run since 2010. The last time the Jags covered in seven consecutive contests: Weeks 10-16 in 2007.

• The Colts’ cold spell reached five in a row with Monday night’s 48-27 home loss to San Francisco.

Since starting the season 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS, Indianapolis has gone 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS.

The blowout loss to the 49ers aside, the Colts are still 6-2 SU at home and 4-2 ATS as underdogs.

• The Jaguars clobbered Indianapolis 36-19 as 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 14. In the process, Jacksonville knocked out the Colts’ top two quarterbacks: Daniel Jones (season-ending Achilles injury) and rookie Riley Leonard (knee sprain). That led Indy to drag 44-year-old Philip Rivers out of retirement and insert him into the starting lineup.

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Despite the scoreboard results, Rivers has vastly exceeded expectations in his first two starts since 2020, completing 66% of his passes for 397 yards and three touchdowns.

• With their Week 14 victory at home, the Jags have now won six of the last eight meetings against Indy.

Jacksonville also is 17-3-1 ATS against the Colts since the start of the 2015 season (7-2-1 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium).

Another rivalry-related NFL betting trend worth mentioning: Each of the last six Jaguars-Colts clashes have surpassed the closing total. All six featured at least 49 combined points.

• Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has 15 touchdown passes in his last five games, tossing multiple scores in each contest. It’s the longest such streak in Lawrence’s five-year career.

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Lawrence threw for two scores in Week 14 against a Colts secondary that just allowed the 49ers’ Brock Purdy to throw five TDs.

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Moneyline: Eagles +105/Bills -125

• Buffalo traveled to Cleveland last week and barely held off the Browns 23-20, failing to cash as a 10.5-point road favorite.

On the field, the Bills have won four in a row and seven of nine. However, they’re just 5-4 ATS during this stretch.

In fact, Buffalo has alternated ATS wins and losses in its last eight contests. Also, the team’s 7-1 SU record at home is offset by a 3-4 ATS mark (1-4 ATS as a favorite).

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• Philadelphia rallied from a 10-7 halftime deficit at Washington in Week 16 and cruised to a 29-18 victory as a 7-point road favorite.

It was the Eagles’ second consecutive victory and spread-cover, following an 0-3 SU and ATS nosedive.

One interesting NFL betting trend pertaining to this contest: The straight-up winner has covered the spread in each of Philadelphia’s last 14 games.

• Going back to the start of the 2024 season, Philadelphia is 5-0 SU and ATS as an underdog.

The Eagles were underdogs of 3 points or fewer in each game, four of which were on the road. The other: a 40-22 rout of the Chiefs in Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans.

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• Philadelphia’s game at Washington last week barely eclipsed the 43.5-point total, ending the Eagles’ 6-0 under streak.

It was the fifth time in Philly’s last seven road games that the total cleared 44 points.

Meanwhile, the Bills have hurdled the total in three straight weeks, and the over is 5-2 in Buffalo this season. Six of those games in Orchard Park, New York, topped 44 points. The only exception: the Bills’ 23-20 Week 5 loss to New England.

• Eagles running back Saquon Barkley shredded the Commanders for 132 rushing yards last week, his second-highest total of the season.

That effort aside, Barkley has only topped 60 rushing yards six times this season. This week, the NFL’s reigning rushing champ takes on the league’s 30th-ranked run defense, as Buffalo yields 144.3 ground yards per game.

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• Jalen Hurts has failed to get into the end zone in four straight games, matching his longest touchdown drought since taking over Philadelphia’s offense in 2021.

Hurts will face a Bills defense that has allowed an NFL-high 24 rushing scores. However, only three quarterbacks have scored against Buffalo: Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Drake Maye (twice).

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Moneyline: Bears +140/49ers -165

• The Bears pulled off arguably the most stunning comeback of the NFL season in Week 16, scoring 10 points in the final two minutes to force overtime against Green Bay.

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On the first possession of the extra session, Chicago recovered a Packers fumble and immediately cashed in the turnover with a 46-yard touchdown pass to steal a 22-16 victory as a 1-point home favorite.

Since beginning the season with back-to-back losses, the playoff-bound Bears are 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS. They’re also 5-2 SU and ATS both on the road and as an underdog.

• Brock Purdy threw a career-high five touchdown passes to lead the 49ers to a 48-27 beatdown of the Colts in the Week 16 Monday Night Football contest.

San Francisco easily cashed as a 4.5-point road underdog and is now on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll.

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Since the calendar flipped to November, the Niners are 6-1 SU and ATS, with the offense averaging 33.1 points per contest.

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• Chicago’s NFL betting trends on Sunday Night Football aren’t pretty: Since 2019, the Bears have lost eight consecutive Sunday games under the lights, going 1-7 ATS.

Then again, San Francisco has split its 10 SNF games this decade, going 4-6 ATS. However, the Niners have won four straight Sunday night home games (3-1 ATS).

• The over is 5-2 in San Francisco’s last seven. Conversely, five of Chicago’s last seven have fallen short of the total.

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Overall, the 49ers have cleared 52 points five times this season (all in the last seven games), while the Bears have done so three times.

• San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey, who had two receiving touchdowns in Monday’s win at Indianapolis, has scored in five straight games and 10 of his last 12.

During this 12-game span, the dual-threat running back has a TD in five of six home contests.

• Bears running back D’Andre Swift is averaging 80.6 rushing yards in his last 10 games — and that includes a 15-yard dud against Pittsburgh in Week 12.

Swift hurdled 60 rushing yards in seven of those games, including five contests with at least 90 yards.

The Yahoo Fantasy Football crew is back to share their boldest predictions, one last time for the 2025 season. Hopefully, these takes help you bring the hardware home in Week 17!

Ja’Marr Chase wins your fantasy championship on his own

Ja’Marr Chase scored a league-high 17 receiving touchdowns in 2024, a weekly occurrence. After having five touchdowns early on, the Bengals’ star receiver has had 102 targets in a row without a touchdown. With the offense back on track, Joe Burrow healthy and Chase continuing to be the focal point of the offense, there is no reason his touchdown production wouldn’t bounce back in a major way.

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In the second half of the season, only the Arizona Cardinals are giving up 30+ PPG, with a mark of 34.7 points allowed per week to opposing offenses. I would expect Chase’s eighth 100+ yard game this season, but this time with a touchdown or two. He last played Arizona back in 2023, scoring 52.2 fantasy points on 19 targets. — Joel Smyth

Tyrone Tracy Jr. finishes Championship Week as a top-10 fantasy RB

There hasn’t been much that’s gone right for the New York Giants this season. Two wins, a whole lot of pain and now Week 17 brings a heavyweight tank-off with the Las Vegas Raiders that feels like a fight for the No. 1 overall pick. But trust and believe, Tracy is the dude you can start with supreme confidence. Since rookie sensation Cam Skattebo’s season-ending injury, and since the Giants stopped messing around with Devin Singletary, Tracy’s been living in that 15-plus carry neighborhood.

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He’s stacked back-to-back 70+ rushing yard games, punched in two touchdowns over the last two weeks and now draws a Raiders defense that looks like it’s hanging on with duct tape. If Maxx Crosby can’t go, the resistance gets even lighter. Volume wins titles, and Tracy’s volume is about to cash a check. — Ray Garvin

Jacoby Brissett throws for 400 yards at Cincinnati

I understand if anyone has cold feet on the Arizona offense after last week’s clunker. The key is to recognize that Brissett and company were wildly productive in the nine prior weeks, and now there’s a gettable Cincinnati defense on the schedule.

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Trey McBride is the key element here, as he’s been the runaway TE1 all year and the Bengals are awful with seam coverage. McBride has multi-touchdown upside in this spot, and Brissett and Joe Burrow can give us a pinball, back-and-forth game — just what you want for championship week. — Scott Pianowski

Rhamondre Stevenson ends as an RB1 in championship week

This is a boring, simplistic analysis; anytime you can start a running back who is going to take the lead on a team projected to score 28 points in a game, you do it. When that running back’s team is set to face a defense that’s allowed the fifth-most rushing yards since Week 12 and a league-high eight receiving touchdowns to the position on the year, it’s even more of a reason.

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When that player, despite getting vitriol from the fantasy community this season because he’s “stolen” touches from a younger and more exciting player, is a proven quality NFL runner, it’s the final piece of the puzzle. All of those boxes are checked by Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson as he prepares to play the Jets in Week 17 with TreVeyon Henderson likely out with a concussion. — Matt Harmon

Omarion Hampton finishes as a top-7 fantasy RB

The Chargers will be dealing with a severe mismatch, between their banged-up offensive line and the Texans’ ferocious pass rush, in what projects to be a low-scoring affair in Week 17. Normally, that would be enough to steer clear of a backfield, but it’s exactly the scenario Ashton Jeanty was in last week when he racked up 188 scrimmage yards and two scores against this same Houston defense.

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Hampton is another talented rookie runner who’s coming off his best performance (95 yards and a TD) since returning from injury. Meanwhile, the Texans have allowed at least 90 scrimmage yards or a touchdown to five straight starting running backs. With Kimani Vidal likely sidelined due to a neck injury, Hampton should see the bulk of the touches en route to a strong finish to his first fantasy campaign. — Justin Boone

Chris Olave gives fantasy managers another WR1 performance

Devaughn Vele and Devin Neal being out sure helped Chris Olave’s case to be a top-12 option last week against the Jets. However, he didn’t necessarily need the expanded workload. Since Tyler Shough took over under center, Olave has turned into the WR1 we all knew was in his range of outcomes from a talent perspective. His catchable target rate is up to 72%, and his yards per route run jumped from 1.64 to 2.17 since Week 9. It’s no wonder that with two pass-catchers down, HC Kellen Moore opted to make Olave the focal point of the passing game with 16 targets versus spreading the ball out to the other role players.

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Olave now gets to face a Titans’ secondary that, outside of their game against the banged-up Chiefs, has given up 15 or more PPR points to a single WR in every contest since their bye. With a similar situation to Week 16 setting up for the Shough-Olave connection, fantasy managers should expect to see the former Buckeye in the top 12 again this weekend. — Chris Allen

The following is an excerpt from the latest edition of Yahoo’s fantasy football newsletter, Get to the Points! If you like what you see, you can subscribe for free here.

If you need help setting your fantasy football lineups for Week 17, Scott Pianowski offers some assistance.

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Start-sit decisions can be vexing for even the best of fantasy managers. Here’s our Week 17 traffic report to help you set those lineups.

Green Light ✅

QB Jacoby Brissett at Bengals: Your confidence might be shaken after the flop against Atlanta, but the Bengals are here to save the day. Cincinnati’s tight end coverage has been awful all year, which puts Trey McBride in a smash spot. Brissett can come along for the ride, especially if Joe Burrow is cooking on the other side.

WR DJ Moore at 49ers: It’s been a bumpy ride at times, but Moore charted as the WR5 and WR7 the last two weeks, moving forward while other Chicago receivers are hurt. He should lead the Bears in targets Sunday night.

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RB Tony Pollard vs. Saints: It took a while for Pollard to get rolling, but he’s posted three straight 100-yard games. New Orleans is a neutral matchup, and the game script should keep Pollard relevant for three hours.

RB Kenneth Gainwell at Browns: He’s probably the most underrated pass-catching back in the league; the Steelers rave about Gainwell’s hands, and he has 33 receptions the last six weeks (only Jahmyr Gibbs has more among RBs). With DK Metcalf (suspension) unavailable, Gainwell can help pick up the slack.

WR Chris Olave at Titans: Only Puka Nacua has outscored him on the WR board the last two weeks. Olave is clicking with competent rookie QB Tyler Shough, and the narrow usage tree is also a boost.

TE Kyle Pitts Sr. vs. Rams: The contract surge appears real, as Pitts has started to smash as he enters his free-agency season. It hasn’t just been the touchdowns; Pitts also has six catches over 20 yards in the last four games. No matter Drake London’s status, Pitts is approved for Monday night.

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Yellow Light 😕

RB Blake Corum at Falcons: He’s become the richer version of Tyler Allgeier, a secondary running back who sees about 10 carries a week and holds goal-line equity. If you need to let your hair down with a flex play, Corum carries a surprising floor.

RB Bucky Irving at Dolphins: He has 17-20 touches in his back pocket before the game starts, and volume is most of the case when we analyze fantasy backfields. But Irving’s floor is muted somewhat by Sean Tucker (goal-line back) and Rachaad White (pass-game contributor). If Irving is going to beat his projection, he probably needs a distance touchdown.

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WR Zay Flowers at Packers: He’s finally started to positively regress with touchdowns and he’s also on a nifty WR8-WR17-WR10 run the last three weeks. But Flowers gets a tricky Green Bay matchup in Week 17, and he’ll probably be working with backup QB Tyler Huntley. Flowers is playable if you need three receivers this week, but pass in a shallow format.

TE Colby Parkinson at Falcons: He had to share tight end work and did little in last week’s high-scoring loss at Seattle, much to the chagrin of expectant fantasy managers. But the Rams use 13-personnel at historically a high rate, which means Parkinson still holds all the goal-line equity that we liked in previous games. He remains above the cut line in this spot.

Red Light 🚨

QB C.J. Stroud at Chargers: He only has one multi-touchdown game in his last five starts. This matchup is also a problem, as the Chargers are sixth in pass defense DVOA. It won’t be surprising if this game turns into a low-scoring rock fight.

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RB Breece Hall vs. Patriots: He’s been outside the top 40 among running backs the last three weeks as the Jets struggle to move the ball. New York is a 13.5-point underdog to New England, so Hall’s volume is far from guaranteed.

WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at Bengals: The matchup is divine but can Harrison take advantage? He’s missed so much time and Jacoby Brissett obviously seems to click with Michael Wilson over Harrison. Remember in fantasy football, we just want the numbers — the names don’t matter.

WR Emeka Egbuka at Dolphins: His production and his opportunity have cratered in recent weeks — he played a season-low 56% of the snaps last week. With other key personnel now healthy in the Tampa Bay offense — but Baker Mayfield still in a funk — Egbuka doesn’t have Circle of Trust privileges in Week 17.

Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season is here — and there’s no better place to get last-minute start-sit advice for your title matchups this Sunday than the season finale of Fantasy Football Live.

Our top-notch fantasy analysts will answer your lineup questions live during the 90-minute show, starting at 11:30 a.m. ET.

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Yahoo Fantasy’s Matt Harmon, Joel Smyth and Chris Allen join host Jason Fitz to guide you right up to kickoff of the 1 p.m. ET games.

Here’s what’s coming up on this week’s show:

• Top fantasy storylines:

  • Who was this year’s fantasy MVP?

  • Bounce-back candidates for 2026

  • Way-too-early first-round mock draft for next season

• Identifying matchup-proof players

• Previewing some of the week’s key fantasy games:

• Sharing our favorite player props for the week

• And most importantly — answer YOUR lineup questions

More Week 17 advice

Rankings from each Yahoo Fantasy analyst

Consensus Half-PPR Rankings

Consensus PPR Rankings

Looking for even more help on Sunday?

We’ve got you covered:

• Analyst Scott Pianowski will be answering start-sit questions on Twitter/X (@YahooFantasy) beginning at noon ET — just tag your questions with #AskFFL (consider it your fantasy Bat Signal).

Where and when to watch FFL

Catch Fantasy Football Live on YahooSports.com, the Yahoo Sports app, the Yahoo Fantasy app or YouTube, starting at 11:30 a.m. ET on Sunday.

Want to get your question featured on the show?

Use #AskFFL on Twitter/X and join the conversation.

The NFL and the Detroit Lions are continuing to investigate the situation involving a fan and Pittsburgh Steelers receiver DK Metcalf that happened during Sunday’s game at Ford Field.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the league is interested in pursuing the matter following information provided to them by Metcalf during Tuesday’s appeal hearing for his two-game suspension. The investigation will focus on if the fan violated the Lions’ guest code of conduct.

“The matter remains under review,” an NFL spokesman told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review in an email.

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Metcalf’s two-game suspension was upheld, the league announced Tuesday evening, ending his regular season.

The incident occurred in the second quarter of Sunday’s game. While the Lions’ offense was on the field, Metcalf approached a fan sitting in the front row and wearing a blue wig. After exchanging words with the fan, Metcalf appeared to throw a punch at the fan’s head.

While the incident was captured on the broadcast, it was not seen by officials.

Because of that, Metcalf was not penalized and was not ejected from the contest.

The fan claimed Metcalf threw a punch because the fan taunted the wideout with his full name, DeKaylin Zecharius.

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On Monday, however, sources told Tom Pelissero of NFL Network that the fan used a derogatory term when taunting Metcalf about his mother. That source also claimed the fan called Metcalf “something we both know you don’t call a Black man.”

The fan’s attorney released a statement Monday calling the allegations against the fan, Ryan Kennedy, “completely false.”

“Ryan Kennedy categorically denies using the ‘N-word,’ the ‘C-word,’ or any racial, misogynistic, or hate-based slur during the incident that occurred on December 21, 2025 at Ford Field during the Pittsburgh Steelers-Detroit Lions game.

“These allegations are completely false.”

During his Tuesday news conference, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said that although he doesn’t condone Metcalf’s actions, he supports the wide receiver.

“He did explain to me why he did what he did, and I certainly don’t condone the behavior, but I support DK,” Tomlin said. “And I really don’t have a lot to add other than what I just told you.”

Kennedy was escorted from his seat but not ejected from the stadium. The Lions told The Athletic on Tuesday that the team did not plan to take action against Kennedy.

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Kennedy held a press conference on Friday with his attorneys, though there were reportedly issues with the Zoom audio. Per ESPN’s Brooke Pryor, Kennedy asked Metcalf to “tell people he didn’t use [a] racial slur or hate speech.”

The Steelers finish the regular season against the Cleveland Browns this Sunday and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18. Pittsburgh can wrap up the AFC North title this week by beating Cleveland or with a loss by the Ravens to the Green Bay Packers.

Hello Yahoo! It’s been a pleasure writing each week about the players projected to play above or below their usual level, and it’s been so cool having my projection system, THE BLITZ, available to Yahoo+ users as part of Yahoo’s suite of tools. This will be the final edition of this column for the 2025 season, so if you’re still alive in your league, best of luck to you this week!

Josh Downs, Colts

THE BLITZ Week 17 Projection: 7.3 targets, 5.1 receptions, 55 yards, 0.34 TD

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Week 17 vs. YTD: WR26 vs. WR46

The fantasy and betting communities have been down on the Indy passing attack ever since Philip Rivers took over … but THE BLITZ hasn’t been. Others are starting to come around after a strong performance from Rivers on Monday, and THE BLITZ is expecting another one this week.

While this could apply to any of their pass-catchers, Downs is the most interesting relative to his year-to-date performance, given that his route share has risen from 62% prior to Week 15 to 88% in two weeks with Rivers. Downs has generated a 22% target share in this span, and the matchup this week is a good one at home, in a dome, with a passing game script. You could do much worse than Downs in a pinch this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots

THE BLITZ Week 17 Projection: 18.5 carries, 2.8 receptions, 96 yards, 0.95 TD

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Week 17 vs. YTD: RB7 vs. RB39

With TreVeyon Henderson in concussion protocol and unlikely to play in Week 17, Stevenson should have the backfield almost entirely to himself. D’Ernest Johnson will mix in a bit, but this could be a very heavy workload for Stevenson, who only slid into the backup role because he got injured, and Henderson’s performance was too great to ignore.

But make no mistake, the Patriots coaching staff loves Stevenson, and he figures to see a ton of work both on the ground and through the air. And going up against a bad Jets team, the game script couldn’t get much better for him to see a heavy workload.

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Michael Mayer, Raiders

THE BLITZ Week 17 Projection: 7.1 targets, 5.2 receptions, 53 yards, 0.28 TD

Week 17 vs. YTD: TE6 vs. TE50

Brock Bowers unexpectedly went on IR this week, leaving Michael Mayer as the TE1 for Las Vegas. While the offense as a whole has left a lot to be desired (and now will be without its top pass-catcher), they’ve also experienced a good deal of bad variance on top of their poor play. With just the modest bit of regression we saw from them last week, Mayer becomes one of the most interesting tight ends on the whole slate.

In two games he played without Bowers earlier this year, his route share spiked from 36% to 85%, and his target share followed suit from 9% to 21%. This is a guy who comes with a strong pedigree (early second-round pick just two years ago) and whom the Vegas coaching staff has spoken highly of, going as far as calling him a No. 1 tight end in the league earlier this year. I am very in on him this week and next.

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Christian Watson (and other Packers pass-catchers)

THE BLITZ Week 17 Projection: 5.2 targets, 2.9 receptions, 42 yards, 0.33 TD

Week 17 vs. YTD: WR49 vs. WR27 (per game)

Watson has been highly impressive of late and has picked up a ton of hype throughout the fantasy community, but this week sets up as a potential letdown spot. For one thing, QB Jordan Love is in concussion protocol and, as of this writing, isn’t looking likely to play. Backup Malik Willis would be enough of a downgrade, but he is also injured and has a chance to sit out as well. In two starts without Love last year, the Packers went extremely run-heavy, running the ball 38% more than the average team (context-adjusted) compared to just 5% more with Love. This game also projects as the slowest-paced of the week by far, reducing total play volume. And with a fully healthy wide receiver room, there is some risk of losing snaps for Watson and his teammates as the team juggles playing time.

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James Cook III, Bills

THE BLITZ Week 17 Projection: 18.1 carries, 1.8 receptions, 102 yards, 0.58 TD

Week 17 vs. YTD: RB11 vs. RB6

Cook has been one of the best values in fantasy this season, but much of that value has come from positive game scripts with Buffalo playing from ahead. In Week 17, the Bills face off against the Eagles with just a 1.5-point spread. In a close game, Cook is less likely to see the kind of workload on the ground he’s used to (especially if the Bills aren’t leading late), and his pass-game usage has never really been impressive.

Throw in the fact that both teams play at a slow pace, and that their 21.5 implied team total would be fewer points scored than all but four of their games this year, and we have the makings of a good-but-not-great outing here for Cook.

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Saquon Barkley, Eagles

THE BLITZ Week 17 Projection: 18.5 carries, 2.4 receptions, 97 yards, 0.58 TD

Saquon is in a very similar boat to Cook, except for the fact that he has been a disappointment for those who drafted him, rather than a value. But on the opposite side of this close, slow-paced game, Barkley is also unlikely to be able to post a big score with Philly being forced to pass more often than usual. This is especially detrimental to Barkley because he’s gotten just two receptions over the past four weeks, with Will Shipley taking on more third-down work and Barkley’s target share being cut in half from 14% down to 7%. THE BLITZ doesn’t even call Barkley an RB1 in most fantasy leagues this week.

It’s rare for a college basketball story to enter the mainstream sports conversation on Christmas Eve, but Baylor’s announcement that it had added center James Nnaji — the 31st pick in the 2023 NBA Draft — was enough of a “What are we doing here?” moment for it to break through.

Though college sports is now professional in almost every sense — including players who have signed pro contracts in Europe and the NBA G League finding their way to college basketball this year — the Nnaji development feels like new territory. This isn’t someone who slipped through the cracks or got bad advice, turned pro out of high school and ran into a career dead end. Nnaji, who has been playing in Europe, was one draft slot away from being a first-round pick with a guaranteed NBA contract. He played in the NBA Summer League and has even been part of a trade.

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“Santa Claus is delivering mid season acquisitions…this s*** is crazy!!” UConn coach Dan Hurley wrote on X shortly after the news became public.

Is this really the type of player who should be part of college basketball? Who knows, maybe Arizona can get LeBron James on the bench for its Final Four push if he wants to play with his son Bryce.

That would be absurd, of course — and, to be clear, expressly against NCAA rules since these pro-to-college cases must take place within five years of high school — but you can be forgiven if it seems like anything goes these days.

And guess what? As more college programs pursue mid-year additions, some have even checked in with G League players on two-way contracts who have appeared in actual NBA games. That seems inevitable at some point, too, given where this trend seems to be headed.

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But don’t blame Baylor or any program for pursuing those players.

While you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone in college sports who thinks this is a good development, schools are merely doing what the NCAA has given them the green light to do as it waits and hopes for some kind of antitrust protection from Congress that would allow for the actual enforcement of the rulebook rather than a mishmash of eligibility rulings.

It’s tempting to wail away on the NCAA’s ineffectiveness here, especially if you’re, say, a Kentucky fan who remembers when the NCAA denied Enes Kanter’s eligibility because he received $33,000 over his necessary living expenses from a pro team in Turkey. That seems picayune compared to what’s happening regularly now, where schools are arranging for far higher payments to European teams just to get players bought out of contracts so they can come to college.

At the same time, the NCAA is in an incredibly difficult spot. Its executives and attorneys understand that each time the line of demarcation moves, as it has here, it chips away at the NCAA’s ability to ensure college sports are played by college students, not people who bypassed that opportunity and want to suddenly turn back because NIL has become so lucrative.

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But the NCAA also sees a legal environment with a deluge of eligibility cases, with some judges granting sixth and seventh years to players. Gonzaga’s Tyon Grant-Foster, who will turn 26 before the NCAA tournament, was originally denied eligibility but granted a preliminary injunction in Washington to play this season — seven years after he enrolled in junior college.

NCAA officials would argue nothing major has changed from a policy standpoint; rather, what’s different is the willingness of schools to recruit and enroll those players — and, of course, the willingness of those players to come play college basketball. Before there was big NIL money involved, it just wouldn’t have been something to consider. Now, it’s often a far more lucrative path than trying to make it to the NBA from the G League.

The combination of schools looking for players outside the traditional recruiting realm and judges eroding the NCAA’s ability to enforce eligibility rules has led everyone here, whether they like it or not.

Sports attorney Darren Heitner theorized Friday in his “Newsletter, Image, Likeness” blog on the legal landscape in college sports that this could also be part a calculated strategy by the NCAA to present college basketball as “one option within a broader professional and semi-professional basketball market that includes the G League, international leagues and other alternatives” to make the argument that the NCAA isn’t a monopoly.

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“If the NCAA can establish through these eligibility decisions that college basketball and professional leagues occupy the same competitive labor market, it will fundamentally reshape the antitrust analysis in ongoing and future cases,” Heitner wrote.

The question, though, is to what end? Is the point of this enterprise now merely about legal survival while college basketball transforms into a place for guys stuck in the NBA developmental system to come and get a big payday?

That doesn’t seem right. And even if the NCAA can get some kind of protection from Congress — it’s been six years and counting since the organization started down that path, so no guarantees there — it’s hard to imagine some of this stuff just comes to a hard stop. Once the window opens this wide, it’s difficult to close.

Maybe it’s time for college basketball and the NBA to sit down and figure out a different model, one that perhaps mimics hockey’s system where players can be drafted but play in college until they decide to sign with their pro team.

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Imagine a world where nobody has to enter the NBA Draft, they’re just automatically in the pool of draft-eligible players the year they turn 18 years old. At that point, decisions about what’s best for their development would take place collectively between the NBA franchise that drafted them and their college team. Perhaps you could even construct a system where a drafted player can join the NBA or G League team on a provisional basis after the college season and then go back to college if they feel like they need another year.

Of course that would require a lot of work, cooperation and collective bargaining changes on the NBA side. But it makes a lot more sense than college coaches who need another body to bypass a high school kid and instead recruit a grown man who never intended to go to college with a six-figure payday.

If they’re simply going to wait around for Congress to deliver guardrails, Nnaji is going to be the first of many former NBA Draft picks to find their way back to college basketball and make the NCAA look like it has no rules at all.

Dallas Mavericks forward Anthony Davis is likely to miss several upcoming games after suffering a groin injury on Thursday, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania.

Davis exited the Mavericks’ 126-116 loss to the Golden State Warriors on Christmas Day after experiencing right-groin spasms. He ran to the sideline during the first half and didn’t return to the floor.

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Dallas ruled him out at halftime.

The Mavericks will reportedly evaluate Davis daily with the forward a potential trade target this season.

Davis tallied 3 points, 3 rebounds, 2 blocks and 1 steal before he left the game.

Another injury for Davis

This injury for the 32-year-old Davis is the latest in a season and a career filled with them. Davis missed 14 consecutive games early in the season with a calf strain. He’s now missed 14 or more games in 11 of his 14 NBA seasons.

The Mavericks acquired Davis as the centerpiece of the return in the trade that sent franchise cornerstone and perennial All-NBA guard Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers in his prime at 25 years old. They were aware of Davis’ injury history when they acquired him.

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Davis missed 24 of a possible 33 games with the Mavericks last season due to injury following the midseason trade. He’s missed 16 of 31 games this season and now appears to be in line to miss more time. The Mavericks dropped to 12-20 with Thursday’s loss, good for 11th place in the Western Conference.