“Every player is different. Every sport’s different. Every position is different. With him, traditionally, he’s going after it so hard and he’s so in tune with what he does, he does it a little quicker. Ballpark on this is nine months. Could be a month or two less, a month or two more. You never know what goes on and everyone’s designed biomechanically, and so you just have to go through it.
A timeline of nine months from Monday would fall on Sept. 15, five days after the NFL is scheduled to begin the 2026 season. That makes the give-or-take of two months quite consequential.
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On the quicker end, Mahomes could be ready for Week 1 with time to spare. On the slower end, he doesn’t make his debut until November. Given how important the 30-year-old is to the future of the franchise, it has every reason to be cautious.
Patrick Mahomes’ 2026 availability is up in the air. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
(Kevin Sabitus via Getty Images)
That makes this offseason a tricky one for a Kansas City team at a crossroads. After years of contending and winning, the wheels came off in 2025 and putting them back on again likely means some significant roster changes for the team. If Mahomes isn’t playing, that’s all the more reason to approach 2026 as a rebuilding year.
Burkholder said Mahomes’ injury didn’t come with anything more concerning than the torn ligaments, and revealed the quarterback has already started rehab:
“They said that everything he had in this injury was fixable, correctable. And it was fixed on Monday night by Dr. Cooper. He had no artery damage, no nerve damage, no joint surface damage, no meniscal damage. He’s already started rehab down in Dallas. He was there first thing Tuesday morning and he’ll do that through tomorrow. Then he’ll be back here Friday.”
As Mahomes makes his way back, the Chiefs will officially end their season with games against the Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders.
Cleveland Browns defensive stalwart Myles Garrett is staring down the NFL’s single-season sack record. He’s poised to break it at some point over the final three games of his 2025 campaign. But if you ask Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, that mark will be reset in 2026: by Micah Parsons, who suffered a season-ending ACL tear during a loss to the Denver Broncos last weekend.
“Just wait till you guys see how hard he works to come back, how fast he probably comes back,” Hafley told reporters on Wednesday. “If I were a betting man, I would bet that he comes back better and probably breaks the sack record next year.
“So I’m going to put that on Micah and myself, and you guys can put it out there. And that’s the confidence I have in him.”
That kind of output would put Parsons in line for not only NFL Defensive Player of the Year but also NFL Comeback Player of the Year, considering he’ll likely miss the beginning of next season. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported earlier this week that the star pass rusher faces a recovery of at least nine months.
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As of Wednesday morning, according to ESPN’s Rob Demovsky, Parsons still hadn’t had surgery to repair the torn left ACL he suffered Sunday. That delay is not unusual for players awaiting a reconstructive knee procedure, however.
Still, in all likelihood, the Packers will start the 2026 campaign without Parsons, meaning the type of bounce-back season Hafley is predicting would be all the more incredible.
Garrett is one sack away from tying the current sack record, which is co-owned by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt. Strahan recorded 22.5 sacks with the New York Giants in 2001, and Watt matched that mark in 2021 with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Even if Garrett somehow doesn’t eclipse that total this season, Parsons would need 23 sacks in less than a full season.
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He piled up 12.5 sacks in 14 games this season, his first with Hafley and the Packers after an infamous contract standoff with the Dallas Cowboys that resulted in Jerry Jones trading Parsons for three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kenny Clark and a pair of first-round picks.
Parsons joined the Packers on Aug. 28, just 10 days before their season opener, and inked a four-year, $188 million deal with the team, including a reported $136 million of guaranteed money, that made him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history.
“I didn’t even know him,” said Hafley, who is in his second year as Green Bay’s DC. “[I] quickly developed a really good relationship with him.
” … How hard he worked and how hard he played and how hard he does play in the run game, in the pass game, the way he strains — I just have so much respect for the guy.”
While Parsons didn’t record a sack in Week 14 or 15, he’s still first in the league in pressures this season, according to Next Gen Stats. His 20.7% pressure rate in 2025 was the third best of his career, which has included four Pro Bowl nods and three All-Pro accolades.
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Parsons has accounted for a third of the Packers’ pressures this season, per NGS.
Just as Hafley believes in his sack artist making a triumphant return, he believes in the rest of his unit responding to Parsons’ absence with conviction.
“As far as the team goes, I told them: ‘You can’t let circumstance dictate behavior,’” Hafley said. “A week ago, we’re in here after we beat the Bears, and we’re all walking in here all upbeat and ready to roll. And I said, ‘Shame on you, if you walk in here any different today.’ … And that’s our job as leaders and as coaches to make sure that we don’t do that.
“We got really good players. We play good defense, and we’re going to continue to play good defense. And our guys understand that.”
This is one of the toughest Thursday Night Football previews I have written this season, because the largest looming factor over this game is the weather report.
All week there has been a projected 90% chance of rain in Seattle. The biggest move in the betting market has been on the game total, dropping from an opener of 45.5 all the way down to 42 now. I was lucky enough to identify this in my Tuesday article and recommend an under 44.5.
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But at this point in the betting cycle — and truthfully at this point in the betting legalization era — sportsbooks have gotten incredibly sharp when it comes to factoring in weather conditions. The expected sustained wind of 13 mph with gusts north of 20 mph is priced into everything from the game lines to the passing and kicking player props. It is fantastic to be a frontrunner of weather news, but it is hard to still find value once the information is known.
Therefore, my strongest recommendation is not to go big with your bets on this game. The books are adjusting hourly based on forecast changes, which for us non-meteorologists, is an information and pricing disadvantage. Instead of going through the normal spread, total, and prop context I normally apply, I will stick to what I consider four still-actionable angles.
The game total has plummeted because of the rain, and the spread has moved toward the home Seahawks as the seemingly sharp side. Perhaps the best way to attack this is in the player prop market on Charbonnet.
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Charbonnet is the more traditional power back alongside explosive playmaker and starting RB Kenneth Walker. While Walker is likely to be the guy out there on the first play as the designated starter, surprisingly, Charbonnet has played a higher percentage of snaps in six of the 13 games these two have both played this season. The workload is a near equal split – and this spot could be better fit for Charbonnet.
The defense is going to know the run is coming, and the offense is going to be predicated less on breaking a big explosive play, but a slow churn of steady yardage. Right now Charbonnet is projected to have three fewer rush attempts and 15 more yards. This may be an inefficiency in the betting market. The first two late-week bets into this market are the overs on Charbonnet’s rush attempts and yardage. I also don’t mind going under on Walker.
Bet: Zach Charbonnet over 9.5 rush attempts (+100), over 32.5 rush yards (-115)
2. Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
In the same vein of fading the amount of explosive plays generated in this game, looking toward Smith-Njigba — Seattle’s emerging superstar — is a must. If the rain is pouring in, and perhaps more pertinently the wind is howling, the defenses are going to continue to bring pressure on Sam Darnold and the run game. Let’s hope Darnold is not “seeing ghosts” out there.
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The ability to generate deeper pass plays, where Darnold has to hold onto the ball longer as Smith-Njigba works downfield, and then has to mitigate wind factors to deliver the right throw, is significantly lessened. In the betting market we have seen Smith-Njigba’s longest reception number drop from 28.5 to 26.5. BetMGM is still holding onto that under-28.5, so that has to be a grab as well. A likely positive closing line value prop spot if the weather forecast holds.
Bet: Jaxson Smith-Njigba longest reception under 28.5 yards
3. Seahawks QB Sam Darnold
Interested in a +EV longshot? Let’s look at Darnold. Since it’s clear that Seattle is the sharper side, and we know the Rams are without their best red zone wide receiver in Davante Adams, the Seahawks are the target for touchdown markets. Darnold surprisingly has some wheels and sneaky athleticism. If Darnold can escape pressure, he is a candidate to run one in. There is not too much sophistication and overthinking that can go into this; it’s a long shot, but comparing it to the rest of the market it does have an edge.
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Bet: Sam Darnold first TD scorer (80-1)
4. Rams WR Puka Nacua
This is a bet on top-tier talent in the NFL — an MVP-caliber QB in Matthew Stafford and perhaps an Offensive Player of the Year in Nacua. With the weather conditions, the game total dropping and the Seahawks being the sharp side, I believe we are getting a discount on Puka Nacua props.
On top of the division and conference standing implications of this game, Stafford seems to be playing for an MVP trophy to cap off a Hall of Fame career. Since Stafford entered the MVP conversation, his pass attempts have soared. The last five weeks for Stafford have seen a higher volume of pass attempts when compared against the beginning or middle of the NFL season to date. Factor in the loss of Adams and a short week to work out proper game-planning with the other weapons, and Stafford is going to rely heavily on Nacua.
It was, however, somewhat unexpected when the team tapped seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers as the new starter and not the more experienced Zach Wilson. Especially for Wilson, apparently.
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Speaking with the Miami Herald after Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel announced the change under center, Wilson reportedly said he was “frustrated” and “maybe a little confused as well” about being passed over for starting duties this coming Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals.
He did wish Ewers well, though, via the Herald:
“Of course I would love to play,” Wilson said. “…I can’t control that. My job is to go out and do the best I can. Keep preparing, …. getting better, supporting Quinn. Excited for him to get his first start.”
Asked if McDaniel explained why he didn’t get the starting job, Wilson said: “A little bit. There’s still confusion there. But you know what? That’s how it goes sometimes.”
Wilson will serve as Ewers’ backup on Sunday, much like he has for Tagovailoa this season.
The former second overall pick signed with the Dolphins last offseason on a one-year, $6 million contract, after an unsuccessful run as the New York Jets’ starting quarterback and a 2024 season with the Denver Broncos in which he didn’t appear in a game. Ewers was drafted in the seventh round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
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For much of the year, the Dolphins’ QB depth chart has been Tagovailoa, Wilson and Ewers. Wilson has appeared in three games as the backup, while Ewers made his NFL debut in October with his first and only appearance. Neither profile as a long-term solution for the Dolphins, but Ewers reportedly impressed enough in preseason and practice that Miami opted to give him a whirl against the 4-10 Bengals.
Zach Wilson will remain the Dolphins’ back-up QB. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
(Diamond Images via Getty Images)
At the very least, a successful start could set up Ewers for a more long-term back-up role for the Dolphins going forward, while Wilson is a free agent after this season.
McDaniel reportedly told Wilson he still has a chance to play this season, though. Wilson also reflected on his time with the team in some diplomatic terms, via the Herald:
Asked to describe his one season as a Dolphin, Wilson said: “It’s definitely been eventful, right?… Guys have been great and I appreciate the organization bringing me here.
“It’s definitely been tough. I don’t think the season has gone as we all had hoped.
Wish we could have pulled out some more wins and things had gone a little smoother. And of course, I would like to be playing, but it happens. So we’ll go from there.”
As politely as Wilson puts it, it’s been a miserable season for the Dolphins, who are 6-8, out of the playoffs and just publicly ceded defeat on their franchise quarterback. They have three games left before they enter an offseason with some uncomfortable questions, with the Bengals game scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday in Miami.
We’re close to Christmas, and the NFL is gifting us some enticing matchups and races to watch. (Or make fun of.) The Four Verts column is here to dive into them.
Seattle has a late-season gut check game this week
The NFC West has another massive, conference-defining matchup between the Rams and Seahawks on Thursday night that will likely decide who wins the division and gets homefield advantage for the NFC playoffs. These have been two of the best teams in the league this year and both of them are comfortably Super Bowl contenders, no matter who wins the division. Their performances haven’t been quite as equal even though they both enter this game with 11-3 records.
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The Rams this season have been a juggernaut, even in losses, showing off ridiculous offensive firepower and a competent defense. However, the Seahawks’ offense has produced some jumbled performances recently that give a little pause on their ability to make a run through the postseason.
Since Week 11, when they suffered a 21-19 loss to the Rams, the Seahawks’ offense has put up pedestrian numbers. According to TruMedia, Seattle ranks 21st in expected points added per play, 13th in success rate and 24th in third-down conversion rate. The Seahawks still have some high-flying and explosive moments that have made them such an incredible watch this season, but overall it’s been shakier than they would like. They were comfortably a top 7-10 offense with dominant peaks this season for the first 10 weeks of the season, but not so much since.
Part of the reason is non-play-action passing has fallen off a cliff. They’ve gone from one of the most explosive drop-back games in the league to one that’s been pedestrian recently. Even their play-action passing has dropped from the consensus No. 1 attack in the league to one that’s just top 10 over the past month. This might feel like nitpicking because this isn’t one of the worst offenses in the league, but they’re Super Bowl contenders playing an in-division Super Bowl contender they lost to earlier. So it’s fair to be concerned here.
Sam Darnold and the Seahawks’ passing game aren’t lighting up teams as of late. (Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)
(Jane Gershovich via Getty Images)
The Rams, on the other hand, have continued to breathe fire on every defense they go against recently, averaging a whopping 3.18 points per drive since Week 11 and a blistering red-zone touchdown rate of 72.7%, both tops in the league. Third downs have been an issue, but they’re so efficient on early downs (and in general) that it hasn’t been too much of a problem. The Seahawks’ sterling defense will likely prevent the Rams from ripping off their third 40-point game in a row, but they’re playing at an all-time pace right now going into the postseason.
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The stakes are monstrous and these teams are going through different ebbs and flows with the Rams peaking at the perfect time. This is what we want on “Thursday Night Football”!
Tampa Bay and Carolina will play the lowest of the high-stakes games this weekend
What’s there left to say about the NFC South? This is the lowest the division has felt in terms of overall quality now that Tampa Bay has fallen off a cliff from where it was earlier this season.
Tampa Bay and Carolina will have the first of their two matchups on Sunday, with the final one coming in Week 18. While the Panthers have improved this season, last weekend showed that both of these teams are awfully weak to have atop of a division — but wins are wins and here we are.
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The Panthers and Bucs lost to the Saints and Falcons, respectively, in Week 15. Both of those teams have been among the worst in the league this year, and the Bucs and Panthers each have only seven wins. Nobody considers either of these teams threats to win in the playoffs, which brings us to something the NFL needs to consider: Get rid of the automatic home game for division winners.
Division winners should still be automatic qualifiers for the postseason, but then rank it by record and re-seed from there as the playoffs go along. Why should anyone be rewarded for climbing out of the sewer with one shoe on to win the division?
Why am I producing ideas on what to do with the porous and humiliating NFC South? Well, it’s almost Christmas, I don’t feel well and the thought of what the Falcons have done this season makes it only worse. Let’s get back to real teams.
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How the Chargers fare against the Cowboys may project their postseason
The Chargers have sputtered a bit here to close their season, but they firmly control their playoff path at 10-4. While their record is impressive, some of their performances this season have left some to be desired in terms of down-to-down play.
As they head into the final stretch of the season currently holding a playoff spot, the playoff-hopeful Cowboys will provide a good test for them with their array of high-end talent that they’ve acquired. Both teams are flawed, but the Chargers still need to prove that they can win against the more complete offenses in the league, which the Cowboys absolutely have.
Los Angeles’ defense has had another quality season, but it hasn’t had the toughest slate of offenses this year, which will change this weekend. Even in the Chargers’ two wins over the Chiefs, Kansas City’s skill talent was not a huge challenge for them. Dak Prescott and the turbo-charged Dallas offense will provide problems they haven’t dealt with outside of the early season Colts, who scored 38 points on them.
Here’s a surprise: Jim Harbaugh has a well-coached team looking ready for the playoffs. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
(Katelyn Mulcahy via Getty Images)
Since that Week 7 game, the Chargers have had one of the top performing defenses in the league. Since the start of Week 8, they rank in the top three of the vast majority of defensive efficiency stats and 44.6% of opposing drives failed to gain a first down. It’s really gnarly what they’re doing to these other offenses, but these offenses aren’t exactly the scariest units in the league. That run is made up of playing the Vikings, Titans, Steelers, Jaguars, Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs. The Jaguars managed to put up 35 points in rough fashion, but the Chargers’ defense was left out to dry by an offense primarily featuring backup quarterback Trey Lance. Holding the Chiefs to 13 points last week prior to a late-game injury to Patrick Mahomes was impressive, but they don’t have the same overall talent as Dallas.
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The Cowboys’ problems are on defense. The offense is filled with stars just about everywhere except at running back — which is at worst solid. Prescott has played elite football this year, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens have been a monster duo at wide receiver, and the offensive line at its best is one of the better units in the league.
This is a tough matchup for a team that is still building out its defensive personnel, but if the Chargers can slow down this Cowboys offense then they’ll have a chance to change their outlook for the postseason. The way the Jaguars pummeled them up front was troubling, but they can reassure people now.
There’s also the offensive side where a beleaguered, injured line will have the fun task of blocking the Cowboy’s interior defensive tackle rotation of Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark and Osa Odighizuwa. I’ve seen enough games with this Chargers offensive line to know how that’s going to go. L.A. probably doesn’t have the horses for a run, but we will find out how the Chargers fare against a desperate and talented Cowboys team soon enough.
The Bills and Patriots will split for a fascinating weekend
After Buffalo’s dramatic win against the division rival Patriots, the stage has been set for a tight finish between two of the best teams in the NFL to see who will win the AFC East — and potentially get home field-advantage for the playoffs. The Patriots and Bills split the season series, but the Patriots hold the keys for the divisional crown with 11 wins to the Bills’ 10.
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These teams face stark differences in terms of the quality of opponent they’ll be facing and the oddsmakers are suggesting that these two will have the same record after this weekend is over — adding all the pressure in the world for the final two weeks of the season.
Buffalo got the perfect draw that it needed to keep pace with the Patriots: the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are a bizarrely electric topic of discussion this season. Not because of Myles Garrett’s epic chase of Michael Strahan’s sack record, but because of the obsession around rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Luckily for Buffalo, Sanders has comfortably been the worst starting quarterback in the league this year and is completing only 48% of his non-screen passes. The Browns have a couple of formidable rookies in running back Quinshon Judkins and tight end Harold Fannin Jr., but Sanders is so limited and disaster-prone that the strong Bills pass defense should be able to smother him. Judkins may rip off some nice runs against a leaky run defense, but it’s hard to see how they’ll be able to keep pace with the Bills — unless Garrett just makes life completely untenable for Buffalo.
On the Patriots’ side, they head to Baltimore to take on a desperate Ravens team coming off of one of their best performances of the season, holding the Bengals to 0 points on the road. Baltimore is still an incomplete team, but even in this diminished state it is still an incredibly tough out as the defense has improved and Lamar Jackson gets a smidge healthier each week (assuming his recent “flu deal” subsides). The Ravens are actually favored by three points in this game, making it no freebie for a Patriots team that also needs to win this game. This is a much stiffer challenge than taking on a rebuilding team with a Day 3 rookie quarterback.
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New England will close its season with the other AFC East teams, the Dolphins and Jets, who are also starting late-round and undrafted players at quarterback like Cleveland. Buffalo has a game against the Eagles and then the Jets.
Last weekend set the stage for drama, this weekend is where the final push for a home playoff game begins between two of the most explosive quarterbacks in the league. Buckle up!
The older brother of Los Angeles Rams star Puka Nacua was arrested this weekend for allegedly taking the car of Los Angeles Lakers rookie Adou Thiero without his consent, according to NBC 4 Los Angeles.
Two men, identified as 27-year-old Samson Nacua and 27-year-old Trey Rose, were reportedly arrested for taking the car. Deputies were reportedly called to the 1 Hotel in West Hollywood after the vehicle was tracked to the hotel.
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The pair had allegedly valeted the car and entered the hotel. They were reportedly arrested after deputies reviewed the security footage and identified them.
The exact details of the alleged car theft remain unclear.
Samson Nacua played with his brother Puka at BYU. (Photo by Jack Gorman/UFL/Getty Images)
(Jack Gorman/UFL via Getty Images)
Like his brother, Samson Nacua is a former BYU football player who also spent time in college at Utah, totaling 1,344 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns across five seasons. While Puka went on to become one of the NFL’s top receivers with the Rams, Samson hasn’t made an NFL appearance.
Samson signed with the Indianapolis Colts after going unselected in the 2022 NFL Draft but didn’t make the team’s 53-man roster. He got another opportunity before the 2024 season with the New Orleans Saints but again didn’t make the team. His professional appearances consist of stints with the USFL’s Pittsburgh Maulers and the UFL’s Michigan Panthers.
As for Thiero, he spent his college career at Kentucky and Arkansas before getting selected 36th overall by the Brooklyn Nets and landing with the Lakers in the trade that sent Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets. He has appeared in nine games for the Lakers, averaging 5.8 minutes with nine career points.
Week 16 is upon us and it’s time for another edition of ‘The Fantasy Film Room’ with Matt Harmon and Nate Tice. The dynamic duo identify matchups that have them stressed in Week 16. Tice also provides ‘fantasy watch guide’ for the top prospects in this year’s CFP. The two then preview a massive divisional TNF matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. Joel Smyth then joins the show to share his 5 players that you need to keep an eye on in fantasy this weekend.
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(3:30) – Fantasy Fallout: Tua benched in Miami, Quinn Ewers takes over as QB1
(17:30) – Fantasy Film Room: Matchups we are STRESSED about in Week 16
(18:30) – Lions WRs vs. Steelers DBs
(29:10) – Chargers WRs vs. Cowboys defense
(35:40) – Terry McLaurin vs Quinyon Mitchell
(39:25) – Cowboys WRs vs. Chargers DBs
(46:25) – Jaguars WRs vs. Broncos DBs
(51:20) – CFP fantasy prospects to know
(1:07:40) – TNF preview: Rams @ Seahawks
(1:18:15) – Buzz is Building: 5 players to watch in Week 16
Week 16 is upon us and it’s time for another edition of ‘The Fantasy Film Room’ with Matt Harmon and Nate Tice. The dynamic duo identify matchups that have them stressed in Week 16. Tice also provides ‘fantasy watch guide’ for the top prospects in this year’s CFP. The two then preview a massive divisional TNF matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. Joel Smyth then joins the show to share his 5 players that you need to keep an eye on in fantasy this weekend.
The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers might be going in different directions. Everyone might realize it after Saturday night.
The Bears have played much better the past three weeks, perhaps due to the natural progression of picking up Ben Johnson’s scheme. That included a very competitive loss at Green Bay two weeks ago. Maybe if that game was in Chicago, it would have gone the other way. Or if the Packers didn’t have their best player.
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Green Bay has a problem that will linger the rest of its season. The Packers won’t be the same without Micah Parsons, who is out for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. They can’t replace his 12.5 sacks or the attention that other offenses pay to him. Opponents had to game plan around a talent like Parsons, and that’s no longer the case. Green Bay doesn’t have a difference maker anywhere near Parsons’ level. The Packers are also without other key players due to season-ending injuries, like tight end Tucker Kraft, offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt. That’s a lot to lose.
With Parsons, the Packers were a much better bet to win the NFC North. It was also easier to picture it a month ago. Through the first two-thirds of the season the Bears built a good record by beating bad teams and winning a lot of close games. Something had to change to sustain their record, and it has. The Bears beat the Eagles, almost beat the Packers and then destroyed the Browns 31-3 in the type of blowout they weren’t getting earlier in the season. They’re getting better, and they had already banked a lot of wins.
The Bears are 1-point underdogs for Saturday night’s showdown against the Packers, but that seems to be based on what the teams were weeks ago. Or even a week ago. The Bears are the pick, and a win should vault them to a division title.
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers held on to beat the Bears in the first meeting between the teams this season. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
(John Fisher via Getty Images)
Here are the rest of the picks for Week 16 in the NFL, with odds from BetMGM:
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Seahawks (-1.5) over Rams
This might be the best matchup of the NFL’s regular season. It’s not often you see the two best teams in football (sorry Broncos, or whoever else thinks they’re in the top two) meet up with so much on the line. The Super Bowl picture changes based on who wins and gets the inside track to the NFC’s No. 1 seed. In the first meeting the Rams won 21-19, and Sam Darnold’s four interceptions were a big reason. If Darnold threw only three interceptions Seattle probably wins that game on the road. The Rams have baffled Darnold over the past two seasons, but it’s (probably) not wise to expect a similar meltdown again. And Davante Adams being listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury is a big issue for the Rams.
Commanders (+6.5) over Eagles
The Eagles aren’t completely fixed. They just happened to face the Raiders last week. The last time the Commanders played in a standalone game at home, they almost beat the Broncos. They followed that with a terrible game at Minnesota, but did bounce back to beat the Giants. Who knows what we’ll get out of Washington, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Eagles offense struggle again now that they’re facing someone other than Las Vegas.
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Browns (+10) over Bills
It’s getting harder to back double-digit underdogs. Four of five didn’t cover last week. Cleveland hasn’t covered the spread in any of its past three games. Still, the Bills might not be the dominant team the market portrays. They should have lost to the Bengals at home two weeks ago, before Christian Benford’s incredible pick-6. They had to dig out of a 21-0 hole against the Patriots last week. It’s always hard to fade Josh Allen, but 10 points is still a lot in the NFL.
Chargers (+2.5) over Cowboys
Your strange spread of the week. Unless you’re Jerry Jones, you’ve realized for a while the Cowboys are a mediocre team. They’re not bad. But they’re certainly not good. The Chargers aren’t without some flaws, but they’re 10-4 and for good reason. Is there a letdown after a big win at Kansas City, especially with a very small chance of winning the division? Perhaps. But we all know who the better team is in this game.
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Chiefs (-3) over Titans
This could be a massive flat spot for the Chiefs. They haven’t played a game after being eliminated from the playoff race since before Patrick Mahomes was drafted. And Mahomes is obviously out. But the Titans are horrible. Their two wins have come by three combined points. As long as the Chiefs are reasonably interested in playing, they should win.
Dolphins (+4) over Bengals
If you’ve seen Tua Tagovailoa play lately, you won’t downgrade the Dolphins too much as they turn to Quinn Ewers. Even as the Dolphins had a winning streak, Tagovailoa was simply a game manager. Maybe the Dolphins rally around Ewers for at least one game. The Bengals, on the other hand, looked disengaged in a lifeless 24-0 loss last week to the Ravens.
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Saints (-4.5) over Jets
It’ll be Brady Cook again for the Jets on Sunday, and while it could have been much worse for him last week in his first career start, it wasn’t good either. The Jets defense cratered, as well, in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars. The Saints aren’t good but they’re playing hard, and that should be enough against a Jets team that will have an ugly finish to this season.
Vikings (-3) over Giants
Is J.J. McCarthy turning a corner? Maybe. He has a 120.3 passer rating in his past two games, after a 57.9 rating in his first six. On the other side, it’s hard to say the Giants are tanking. Coaches and players don’t care about a team’s draft position. But as the Giants lost to the similarly bad Commanders at home last week, it was hard to not consider that the Giants would have the No. 1 pick of the NFL Draft if the season ended now. It’s probably just a case of a terrible team being able to lose to anyone. They can lose to the Vikings too.
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Buccaneers (-3) over Panthers
Do you want to take the team that just blew a 14-point lead and lost at home to the Falcons, or the one that blew a 10-point lead and got swept by the Saints? One of these teams will make the playoffs, though we might be better off if they pulled a Notre Dame and opted out. The Buccaneers have a few days extra rest, they are the better team and maybe coach Todd Bowles’ rant will spark something. It’s a game with big stakes but neither team is sprinting to the finish line.
Broncos (-3) over Jaguars
The Jaguars still have a 7.6% chance at the No. 1 seed, according to DVOA. They’d have to beat the Broncos on Sunday, and Jacksonville does look like it’s getting better late in the season. Still, the Broncos have been underrated all season and this spread is another example. So was last week, when the Broncos were home underdogs but won anyway. The NFL’s only 12-2 team is better than the betting market apparently thinks.
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Falcons (-3) over Cardinals
The Cardinals are one of those teams that is playing like they’re hoping for the season to end. The Falcons aren’t great, but they’ve shown more life lately than Arizona. Which isn’t saying much.
Lions (-7) over Steelers
The Lions are predictable. Since the beginning of October they have alternated wins and losses, never putting together a winning or losing streak of two games. Last week they lost to the Rams. You know what that means.
Texans (-14.5) over Raiders
You won’t see many picks in this space on favorites laying more than 14 points. But the thought of taking the Raiders against the best defense in the NFL is not enticing at all.
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Patriots (+3) over Ravens
The Ravens had a nice win over the Bengals last week, and oddsmakers have never given up on them even when they weren’t playing well. That’s why a 7-7 team is favored by a field goal over an 11-3 team. The Patriots had a tough loss last week, but sometimes Josh Allen is just going to beat you. I need to see it at least one more time from the Ravens before believing they’re back, or anything close to it.
Colts (+6.5) over 49ers
We saw a heck of an effort by the Colts last week in almost upsetting the Seahawks. It’s worth asking if they can replicate that two weeks in a row, especially after a crushing defeat. The 49ers defense isn’t great, and they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 5 when they defeated the Rams on a Thursday night. The Colts aren’t dead yet, and on Monday night we’ll get another strong effort.
It’s been another underwhelming year for the Tennessee Titans. After selecting Cam Ward with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the team finds itself … in the exact same area with three weeks left in the regular season.
No matter how things finish out, the Titans will once again look to make big changes in the offseason. While Ward is here to stay, the team will need to find a new head coach after firing Brian Callahan six games into the season.
“I want to meet all of them,” Ward said. “Every coach who’s going to get the opportunity to come here, I want to meet them, have conversations throughout the whole process with them because that’s someone that I’m going to be here with for that time.
[The Titans’ front office] know how much I want to be involved. And then especially just not even with the scheme part of it just as the head coach who he is on a everyday basis. And then, we’ll get into the scheme what I know I’m good at, what I want do, what he thinks will also help me.”
That’s maybe presumptuous for a player who has only played in 14 NFL games so far, though it also makes sense. Ward is viewed as a franchise cornerstone after the team selected him with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. While he hasn’t been an immediate success, the Titans have a lot invested in him turning into a franchise player. If the Titans want to make that outcome more likely, they should probably choose a coach who excites Ward.
Ward has proven to be a work in progress after 14 starts in the NFL. He’s completed just 59.3 percent of his passes, tossing 11 touchdowns against seven interceptions. He’s also taken an NFL-leading 49 sacks.
It’s a discouraging start to his NFL career, though not an unexpected one. The Titans, like most teams that earn the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, were devoid of talent when the team selected Ward. Bringing in impact players in the offseason would go a long way toward helping Ward turn things around.
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Picking the right coach could also make a big difference for Ward. Both the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots can attest to that. Caleb Williams has shown immense development in Ben Johnson’s first year as the Bears’ head coach. Drake Maye has turned himself into an MVP candidate under the watchful eye of Mike Vrabel. Those two examples are proof the right coach can dramatically improve a team’s chances.
It’s unclear who the Titans plan to interview for the vacant head coach position. Given the importance of Ward’s development, however, the team could make it a priority to talk to some of the big-name offensive coordinators looking to make the leap this offseason.
Finding one who can get the most out of Ward will be key. Given that, having Ward’s input throughout that process could turn out to be extremely beneficial for the franchise, even if Ward is only a few games into his NFL career.
Tulane (11-2): The American Conference champions got blown out in Week 4 when the Rebels beat the Green Wave, 45-10. The loss came after Tulane beat Northwestern and Duke over the first three weeks of the season.
After the Ole Miss loss, Tulane won three straight before getting blown out again, this time on a Thursday night at UTSA. But the Roadrunners are excellent at home in conference games. And since then, Tulane has five straight wins. The last four have been by at least two scores, including a 34-21 win over North Texas in the American title game.
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Ole Miss (11-1): Do you want a recap of Ole Miss’ season on the field or a recap of how Lane Kiffin dramatically left Oxford at the end of the season to go to LSU?
We’ll try to briefly do both. Ole Miss lost to Georgia. The Rebels beat LSU and Oklahoma. Despite a guaranteed playoff berth after a 38-19 win over Florida, Kiffin decided the allure of LSU was too great and he wanted to be the Tigers’ next head coach. Ole Miss, meanwhile, told Kiffin he couldn’t coach the team while also heading to LSU. So Kiffin is gone and replaced by defensive coordinator Pete Golding while multiple offensive assistants who followed Kiffin to LSU will coach Ole Miss for the duration of the Rebels’ playoff run.
How the QBs stack up
A year ago, BYU QB Jake Retzlaff was the toast of Provo as the Cougars won 11 games and took down Colorado in the Alamo Bowl. Now he’s the toast of New Orleans following his exit from BYU in dark circumstances.
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Retzlaff transferred after a woman accused him of sexual assault in November of 2023 in a civil lawsuit. Retzlaff had contended the sexual encounter was consensual and the suit was dismissed with prejudice in June. However, Retzlaff transferred because he would be facing a suspension for an honor code violation at BYU.
He ended up at Tulane, where he’s completed 62% of his passes for 2,862 yards and 14 TDs while rushing 118 times for 610 yards and 16 scores. Only three players — including Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy — have rushed for more TDs than Retzlaff.
Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss is also a transfer. He arrived in Oxford from Division II Ferris State and took over as the team’s starter following Austin Simmons’ ankle injury in Week 2. Chambliss finished eighth in the Heisman voting as he’s completed 65% of his passes for 3,016 yards and 18 TDs while rushing for 470 yards and another six scores. Chambliss has thrown for over 300 yards in each of the Rebels’ last three games and has thrown for a TD in all but one game in 2025. That one game? His relief appearance against Kentucky in Week 2 when he didn’t throw a single pass.
Players to watch
Tulane WR Shazz Preston: The Alabama transfer leads a Tulane receiver group that features four players with at least 30 catches. Preston has 38 catches for 598 yards and four touchdowns and is the only Tulane player with more than two TD grabs this season.
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He also leads the Green Wave with 15.7 yards per catch in a passing attack that doesn’t feature a standout receiver. Though Preston had just two catches for 16 yards against North Texas, he’s had four games with more than 80 yards receiving this season.
Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy: No power conference player has as many rushing attempts as Lacy’s 258. The transfer from Mizzou has rushed for 1,279 yards as he’s gotten over 20 carries per game in seven of Ole Miss’ 12 games this season. Lacy’s rushed 58 times for 367 yards and four scores over the last two games and had 24 carries for 167 yards and a TD in a win over South Carolina. In the Week 4 win over Tulane, Lacy rushed 18 times for 68 yards and two scores.
Key to the game
As Pete Golding coaches his first game in charge at Ole Miss, Jon Sumrall could be working his last at Tulane before heading to Florida.
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Sumrall has been balancing two jobs in the buildup to the postseason and he’s got to figure out how his team can be more competitive this time around. Tulane had just 282 yards on 78 plays in September as Ole Miss ran 69 plays for 548 yards.
Tulane’s key is simple. They have to be better at the line of scrimmage to have a chance. While Lacy rushed for 68 yards, Chambliss rushed 14 times for 112 yards and the Rebels had 42 carries for 241 yards. If Tulane is getting blown off the ball, it’s hard to see how this game plays out any different.
