The College Football Playoff has finally arrived — games were played, decisions were made and controversy reigned once again.
There was no shortage of drama this college football season. With the precipitous falloff of teams like Penn State, Clemson and LSU, the door was opened for newcomers like Tulane, James Madison and punchy little upstart Alabama.
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The most controversial decision the CFP committee made was placing three-loss Alabama and two-loss Miami into the field and leaving Notre Dame out. That’s despite the Tide getting shellacked in the SEC title game and the Hurricanes being ranked behind the Irish since the very first set of rankings came out.
But alas, the CFP bracket is set, and 12 teams remain. Who will win it all?
Our team of college football experts breaks it all down with their picks for every playoff game. Feel free to disagree, or to make your own picks in the comments below.
Complete College Football Playoff predictions/picks from the Yahoo Sports staff. (Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports)
A year ago, we saw Ohio State lose its final game before the playoff and then run through the field in one of the greatest postseason winning streaks in the history of the sport. This year, the Buckeyes lost to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game — a defeat that we believe will launch Ryan Day and Co. into another postseason run.
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The Buckeyes are just too talented and are playing too good of defense not to run through this field. That pick shouldn’t surprise you, but how about my pick for runner-up: the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Tech’s front seven is good enough to knock off Big Ten foes Oregon and Indiana and advance to the title bout.
Things got tough for me in the semifinal round. The first two rounds are pretty straightforward. Alabama over Oklahoma was nearly a coin flip, but it feels like Oklahoma’s luck is going to run out with an offense that needs to be better. I think Miami has enough to take down Texas A&M, even with new Kansas State coach Collin Klein still calling plays for the Aggies.
All four top seeds should win in the quarterfinals. The closest game could be the rematch between Ole Miss and Georgia. In the semifinals … I went back and forth a lot. I think each of the top four seeds is more than capable of winning the national title. Texas Tech upsetting Indiana isn’t a statement against the Hoosiers. I have no doubts about how good they are. I just wonder if the loss of defensive lineman Stephen Daley will loom large at some point in the playoff.
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Ohio State vs. Georgia could be the game of the year and I’m not going to be surprised if it comes down to a late field goal once again. In the title game, I have to go with the Buckeyes over the Red Raiders. Tech’s defense has been so, so good at forcing turnovers. But Ohio State’s ability to protect the football — the Buckeyes have just nine turnovers in 13 games — will be the difference.
With the amount of time teams have to prepare, the first round of the playoff should go according to form with home teams holding serve. The one possible exception could be in Norman, where Oklahoma has to beat Alabama for a second time this season to advance. Asking any team to beat a quality opponent twice in a row is difficult in college football, but Alabama’s specific weakness — running the football — plays into the hands of Oklahoma’s defense to such a degree that the Sooners have a real edge in the matchup.
I also expect to see a reversal from last year, where the four teams that got byes into the quarterfinal all lost. If you talk to enough coaches, they would rather have the extra week of rest over playing a first-round game, so this trend should start to even out soon. A lot of people will pick Oregon to beat Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, but that defense is going to present real problems for the Ducks. It’s hard to envision another Georgia quarterfinal exit given the way they played down the stretch, and both Indiana and Ohio State have taken care of business all season against lesser teams.
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If we get semifinal matchups with Georgia vs. Ohio State and Texas Tech vs. Indiana, we should all feel very lucky because that lineup would truly reflect the four most dominant teams of the year in college football. From there, it would be anybody’s ball game in terms of making the national championship.
It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. And throughout this year, nobody has been better at finishing moves than Georgia. The Bulldogs turn boa constrictor in the second half of their games, encircling opponents and then smothering them. They’ll pull the same move in the playoffs, letting Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon get the early acclaim and then suffocating them deep in January. Georgia is ragged, Georgia has exploitable holes, but Georgia’s defense is like the sunset, inevitable and everywhere.
The playoff gives teams a chance to right wrongs from the regular season, and both Alabama and Oregon will take advantage. Alabama will look like a decent team against Oklahoma, and then validate everyone’s belief in their playoff unworthiness by getting waxed by Indiana.
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Oregon will have little trouble with JMU and will overcome Texas Tech in the great Booster Battle, and will avenge a regular-season loss to Indiana in the semis.
Ohio State vs. Georgia will be the best game of the playoffs; it’s just the Buckeyes’ bad fortune to (again) meet the Dawgs in the semis rather than the finals.
Of course, if my preseason predictions are any indication — I had Texas over Penn State in the title game — I would not recommend wagering any of your actual money on these picks. You’d be better off wagering on Notre Dame to win.
Alabama is the first three-loss team to earn an at-large bid to the CFP. The Crimson Tide won’t let the opportunity go to waste. They’ll avenge their Nov. 15 loss to Oklahoma. If Ty Simpson can protect the ball and reestablish a rhythm, Alabama can dig Oklahoma a hole that it won’t be able to climb out of. The Sooners are averaging just 2.9 yards per carry over their past three games, and quarterback John Mateer — seemingly still affected by his early-season hand injury — has completed just 43.4% of his passes traveling 10-plus air yards in 2025, per PFF.
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Miami and Texas A&M will put on the best show of the opening round. The Hurricanes will have chances for big plays. The Aggies’ aggressive defense allowed touchdowns of 50 and 80 yards against South Carolina on Nov. 15 and touchdowns of 29 and 35 yards in the second half of its loss to Texas on Nov. 28. That’s music to the ears of do-it-all wide receiver Malachi Toney and quarterback Carson Beck, who has thrown only one pick in his past four games.
Oregon won’t have too much trouble against a pesky James Madison squad, but it will get a glimpse of what’s to come when it faces Sahir West, who stacked three sacks in the Sun Belt title game. That’s because the Ducks’ quarterfinal opponent will be Texas Tech. Bolstered by an elite pairing of linebackers, namely Jacob Rodriguez, the revamped Red Raiders are third nationally with just 3.96 yards per play allowed this season. That defense will deliver when it needs to versus Oregon. Speaking of awesome defenses, Indiana has one, too. The Hoosiers will put an end to an Alabama offense that’s been increasingly one-dimensional.
Ole Miss is my surprise pick. Pete Golding is a stabilizing force in Oxford, and he’ll be aided by the return of soon-to-be LSU offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. The Rebels are enjoying their best season in program history, and Lane Kiffin’s departure won’t interrupt that run. Behind a persistent run game and a fun passing attack engineered by QB Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss will outscore Georgia in a rematch of the teams’ Oct. 18 meeting. That said, the Rebels’ storybook season will come to a halt against Ohio State, which will snap back into form versus Texas A&M following the Buckeyes’ Big Ten championship defeat.
Ohio State will get another crack at Indiana. First the Hoosiers will expose Texas Tech’s red-zone issues — the Red Raiders are a ghastly 101st nationally in touchdown percentage (56.2%) down there — thanks to a Bryant Haines defense that’s tied for fourth in sacks and ranks second in tackles for loss. Indiana got after Julian Sayin and confused him by disguising coverages. The Buckeyes will have a better plan this time around during a week that won’t involve a signing day scare and offensive coordinator Brian Hartline being named USF’s head coach. Ohio State was held to 10 points against Michigan last year before exploding offensively in the CFP. With star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, there’s a good chance that happens again. Fernando Mendoza won Heisman, but Sayin will win the national title.
