This week sets up like a sequence from an action movie. The main character — all of us with fantasy football playoff spots — is battling for their life. But this time, the same skills or abilities aren’t working. The situation looks bleak. However, out of nowhere, a hero appears. We barely know them, but they seem to have a way out. And, as almost every film with this plot line goes, the mysterious newcomer asks the standard question.
“Do you trust me?”
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Of course, the common response in the movies is, “Yes.” In those cases, there’s no time to ask questions. It’s do or die. Week 15 has the same vibe; it’s win or go home. But we’ve got a little bit of time to dig into a few of the unlikely guys we may be relying on to win a championship. And, more importantly, if their situations are something we can trust during the fantasy playoffs.
A new (bad) wrinkle to the Vikings’ offense
The outcome of Sunday’s Vikings game is one of the reasons I don’t do much sports betting. To be clear, I’m not trying to insinuate that J.J. McCarthy couldn’t play in the league. Honestly, his third return to action was the best we’ve seen of Minnesota’s QB1.
However, here’s where I would’ve lost my life savings. If you had told me McCarthy completed three touchdown passes, I’d have bet my house that at least one went to Justin Jefferson. Depending on when you caught me, I might’ve doubled down and wagered Jefferson griddy’d twice. But go back to the video. I only saw the ball go toward No. 18 a couple of times.
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Target Rate: 34% (Weeks 9-12), 18% (Week 14)
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Catchable Target Rate: 61%, 50%
I know this is the sensational way to summarize the result, but McCarthy’s most efficient day as a passer came without focusing on his WR1. Again, I know the statement sounds like clickbait. But Jordan Addison was the one leading the position. And not just in the boxscore (62 yards on a team-high seven targets), but across every advanced stat we’ve got. Which leads me to a somewhat blasphemous statement: we need to set aside fantasy football here.
I know, please forgive me. But think about the “McCarthy Experience” prior to Sunday. The turnovers. The losses. THAT meme. It was a disaster. So, head coach Kevin O’Connell setting up a game plan that involved eight different players earning a target makes sense. Having McCarthy average less than seven air yards per attempt (for just the third time this season) seems reasonable. In other words, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar outcome against the Cowboys. Besides, the Vikings’ point total obscured the bad part of McCarthy’s good day.
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Pressure-to-Sack Ratio: 19.3% (Weeks 9-12), 33.3% (Week 14)
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Completion Percentage (w/ Pressure): 46.5%, 33.3%
Bottom line: If you’re looking at Week 15 as a bounce-back spot for Jefferson, you’re cooked. Since their bye, the Cowboys rank fifth in pressure rate. Even better, at least for Dallas fans, they’ve been getting home with 2.3 sacks per game. McCarthy did heave a couple of shots to Jefferson into the end zone. So you could tell yourself a story about Jefferson coming down with a score. But with fantasy playoff advancement on the line, I’d find another option.
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The backup RB you could start in the playoffs
I’m willing to bet —
Wait, I just said I’m not good at that in the last segment. Well, let’s pretend I know what I’m doing in that regard. Either way, I’m willing to bet how most folks will interpret Blake Corum’s second touchdown against the Cardinals.
“The score came in garbage time.”
“You can’t trust Corum. He plays less than 40% of the snaps.”
The thought just came to me, but it’s funny how we (and, yes, I’m including you in this grouping) evaluate the skill positions. A wide receiver can have one big game, like say, an 8-102-1 stat line in Week 13, and we’re ready to risk it all for them. No, I’m not upset about Adonai Mitchell, nor did I advocate for him Sunday morning (yes, yes I did). Anyway, an RB needs three forms of ID to get into the club. Without a majority share of the touches and, preferably, some usage in the passing game, the week-to-week volatility is too much for us. So, if you’ve looked at Corum’s time on the field since the Rams’ bye, there’s nothing about his profile to give us confidence in starting him.
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Week 9: 29% (snap rate), 0% (target share)
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However, not every carry has the same value. It’s why anyone with Bijan Robinson this year or Jahmyr Gibbs last season got nervous whenever the Falcons or Lions got into scoring position. They knew what was coming. And the same has been happening in L.A. Over the five games heading into Week 14, Corum had taken 56% of the goal-line carries. To go with his 8.6 totes per game, the Rams’ RB2 was getting the most of the money touches. Couple the opportunities with an offense running the most red-zone plays over the last six games, and you’ve got an RB3 on your hands. Plus, it’s not like Corum’s only appeal is in short-yardage situations.
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Rushing Success Rate (Weeks 9-13): 57.9% (Williams), 52.1% (Corum)
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Adj. Yards After Contact per Attempt: 3.54, 3.23
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Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 22.4%, 33.3%
I used an explosive run in the opening clip, but avoided citing Corum’s big-play rate here because that’s not the main idea. OC Mike LaFleur has noted they’re seeing a fresher version of Williams due to the rotation. And with Corum matching Williams in efficiency on a down-to-down basis, Matthew Stafford can stay on schedule.
Bottom line: I’m willing to give Corum some trust throughout the playoffs. The matchups might be tougher (Lions, Seahawks and Falcons), but Corum’s contextualized profile makes him a viable option in Week 15 and beyond.
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A duo we never knew we didn’t want
I have something I need to admit. And I think you do, too. But first, check out this run by Kenneth Walker III from Sunday.
Carries like this litter Walker’s film from last season. Prior to succumbing to his injuries, the Seahawks’ RB1 ranked first amongst his peers in forced missed tackle rate (38.6%). And when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage, which happened on 83 of his 153 carries, that same percentage jumped to 45.8%. His vision and ability to create out of nothing were traits we held onto over the offseason. Combined with data highlighting that Walker would flourish in new-OC Klint Kubiak’s outside zone scheme, we anchored ourselves to the idea of a “Walker-ssance.” But when presented with new information, we still held our ground.
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Rushing Success Rate (when both active): 42.9% (Walker), 44.7% (Charbonnet)
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Adj. Yards After Contact per Attempt: 3.97, 3.29
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Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 26.0%, 25.8%
Essentially, confirmation bias kept us from jumping ship. Sure, I used the full season to show how Zach Charbonnet has matched Walker’s on-field effectiveness. But that was clear within the first month. Despite missing Week 3 with his own foot injury, Charbonnet carved out a 44% wedge of the pie. And before you point to Walker’s own ailments that may have hampered him earlier in the year, let’s look at how things have been since the bye.
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(On Outside Zone Concepts) Rushing Success Rate: 45.0% (Charbonnet), 25.8% (Walker)
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Adj. Yards After Contact per Attempt: 5.5, 4.4
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Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 50.0%, 32.3%
Unfortunately, this is the Blake Corum argument, but in reverse. Seattle’s strength is its passing game. The rushing attack complements it. But even on the designs that were supposed to favor Walker, he falters, lending credence to the idea of a committee. His gift of bouncing around would-be tacklers can sometimes be a curse, limiting his output. The result is what we witnessed in Week 14.
Bottom line: Frankly, I have no trust in either RB against the Colts. It could go either way. Walker could rip off a long run as he did against the Vikings, and then Charbonnet scores from inside the 10-yard line. Or Charbonnet generates the explosives while Walker earns a few targets. And with Sam Darnold struggling until he starts to connect with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the uncertainty may be worth avoiding the Seahawks’ ground attack if you have better options.
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Trevor Lawrence has a new friend
Based on the number of social media posts I saw referencing them, I assumed Brian Thomas Jr. had reasserted himself as the Jaguars’ leading receiver.
To be fair, hats off to Thomas. The last time he accrued more than 75 receiving yards was in early October. He hadn’t recorded an explosive catch in a month (granted, he missed multiple games). However, three catches with an aDOT of 25.8 air yards aren’t exactly the hallmarks of a top-end WR. No player this season with a similar depth of target has hauled in more than three of the attempts thrown their way. So, if I had to place any confidence in a Jacksonville receiver, I’d look to the guy who caught its first passing touchdown.
Of course, picking the guy who falls into the end zone seems like the most basic analysis. And, I promise you, I wish I could tell you who will score each week. Well, unless we’re in a league together. Anyway, I don’t have that power. However, I’m sure we can figure out which guy is the likeliest to put up six points for the Jaguars.
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Jakobi Meyers (since Week 10): 36% (End-Zone Target Rate)
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Now, as the metric indicates, we’re just looking at who Trevor Lawrence happens to find running across the paint the most. Meyers sitting at the top of that list just gives him a ceiling. How often Lawrence looks for the former Raider is what puts him in the top-24 discussion.
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Target Share: 23.7%, 1st (since Week 10)
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Air Yard Share: 22.8%, 1st
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Slot Target Rate: 26.3%, 1st
We’ve waited months for the Lawrence-Thomas connection to click. All it took was a week for Meyers. His prowess across the middle of the field has been a stabilizing factor for the offense. From Weeks 6-10 (three games prior to the trade and through Meyers’ first game), Lawrence posted negative marks in EPA per dropback and was below the league average in passing success rate. And now, with Thomas and Strange back in the lineup, Lawrence is hitting season-highs in both stats, and the new guy is hoarding 30% of the looks.
Bottom line: Meyers has my full trust to close out the season. His rapport with Lawrence is something we haven’t seen since Travis Hunter started to make waves on comparable routes. Plus, matchups against the Jets, Broncos and Colts (for the second time) aren’t major concerns. So if you’ve got Meyers on your roster, lock him into the WR2 spot and enjoy the ride.
