Category: Business

The International Monetary Fund said Wednesday that US inflation will not return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target until early 2027.

The assessment, part of the IMF’s first Article IV review of the Trump administration, signals that meaningful rate relief remains distant despite the president’s optimism.

IMF Flags Fiscal Risks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters the US current account deficit is “too big.” The Fund estimates it at 3.5% to 4% of GDP in the near term.

But the IMF’s prescription clashes with the administration’s approach. Nigel Chalk, the Fund’s Western Hemisphere Director, said fiscal consolidation — not tariffs — is the best path to narrowing the deficit. The recommendation comes after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s broad emergency tariffs as illegal, forcing the administration to invoke Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for replacement levies.

The fiscal picture is stark. The IMF projects US federal deficits will remain between 7% and 8% of GDP in the coming years. That is more than double the levels targeted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Consolidated government debt is on track to reach 140% of GDP by 2031.

“The upward path for the public debt-GDP ratio and increasing levels of short-term debt-GDP represent a growing stability risk to the US and global economy,” the Fund warned.

Trump’s Rate Optimism vs. Structural Reality

The IMF review landed one day after Trump’s State of the Union address, where the president painted a rosy picture on borrowing costs. He claimed mortgage rates had hit four-year lows and that annual mortgage costs had dropped nearly $5,000 since he took office. He framed lower rates as the solution to what he called the “Biden-created housing problem.”

Yet the IMF’s numbers tell a different story. With inflation not reaching the Fed’s target until 2027 and fiscal deficits running at twice the administration’s own goals, the structural case for higher-for-longer rates is strengthening. The Fund pegged 2026 US growth at a resilient 2.4%, leaving the Fed little urgency to ease.

What It Means for Crypto

The implications for risk assets are clear. Sticky inflation and an expanding fiscal deficit reduce the probability of aggressive rate cuts this year. For crypto markets, which rallied on rate-cut expectations through late 2025, the IMF’s assessment reinforces caution.

The deeper irony is that the administration’s own fiscal expansion — including what the IMF notes are historically large tax cuts — is the primary driver of the deficit that keeps rates elevated. Trump wants lower rates but is pursuing policies that structurally prevent them.

The IMF stopped short of predicting a crisis, noting that “the risk of sovereign stress in the US is low.” But the trajectory it describes — rising debt, persistent deficits, delayed disinflation — points to an environment where rate relief comes slowly, if at all.

The post IMF: US Inflation Won’t Hit Fed Target Until 2027, Delaying Rate Cuts appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin price started a major increase above $68,000. $BTC is now struggling to clear the $70,000 resistance and might correct some gains.

• Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $67,000 support.
• The price is trading above $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $66,500 on the hourly chart of the $BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might dip again if it trades below the $67,500 and $67,200 levels.

Bitcoin Price Rallies 10%

Bitcoin price managed to form a base above the $66,000 zone. $BTC started a fresh increase and was able to surpass the $67,000 resistance zone.

The price even rallied above the $68,000 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $70,000. A high was formed at $70,000, and the price is now correcting gains below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high.

Bitcoin is now trading above $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $67,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,500 level.

The first key resistance is near the $69,200 level. A close above the $69,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $70,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $71,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,200 and $72,500.

Another Decline In $BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $67,500 level. The first major support is near the $67,200 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $62,500 swing low to the $70,000 high.

The next support is now near the $66,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,500, below which $BTC might struggle to recover in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for $BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $67,500, followed by $67,200.

Major Resistance Levels – $68,500 and $69,200.

Bitcoin surged sharply this week, briefly nearing $70,000 before pulling back. The move sparked debate across the market: has Bitcoin finally bottomed, or is this just another relief rally inside a broader bear phase?

Multiple on-chain, derivatives, and institutional indicators show early signs of stabilization. However, key signals still point to a fragile recovery rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.

Options Market Shows Fragile Conditions, Not Strong Support

Bitcoin’s options positioning recently shifted into what traders call a negative gamma regime, according to Glassnode’s GEX heatmap.

In simple terms, gamma measures how options market makers hedge risk. When Bitcoin sits in a negative gamma zone, dealer hedging tends to amplify price moves.

That means rallies can accelerate quickly—but so can selloffs.

The heatmap also shows fewer strong resistance “gamma walls” above current prices. This creates less friction for upward moves, which helps explain Bitcoin’s sudden surge.

However, it also means the market lacks structural stability.

Without strong hedging support, price moves remain fragile and prone to reversal.

Bitcoin Spot Demand Is Improving for the First Time in Months

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s apparent demand, which measures net accumulation versus new supply, has turned positive for the first time since November.

This is an important early signal. When demand exceeds supply, it suggests buyers are stepping in and absorbing coins from sellers.

However, one positive shift does not confirm a full reversal. During past bear markets, temporary demand increases often occurred before further consolidation.

A sustained trend of rising demand over several weeks would provide stronger confirmation.

Short-Term Holders Are Still Selling at Losses

Another key indicator comes from CryptoQuant’s short-term holder profit and loss data, which tracks whether newer investors are selling at gains or losses.

The data shows short-term holders have been selling at losses consistently since late January. Several major loss spikes occurred in early February and again recently.

This pattern is known as capitulation, where weaker investors exit the market. Capitulation is common near market bottoms, because stronger buyers absorb those losses.

However, the signal has not fully reversed.

Until short-term holders begin selling at profits again, analysts warn that rallies can become “exit liquidity,” where trapped investors sell into strength rather than holding.

Technical and Historical Data Suggest Selling Pressure Is Easing

Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator, recently recovered after reaching extremely oversold levels in early February. This suggests selling pressure has weakened.

Historically, such RSI recoveries often lead to short-term rebounds.

Quarterly performance data also shows Bitcoin rarely experiences multiple consecutive quarters of heavy losses.

While this pattern does not guarantee a bottom, it supports the view that the market may be entering a stabilization phase.

Institutional Flows Still Show Weakness

Institutional positioning remains a key concern. Earlier data showed Bitcoin ETFs experienced sustained outflows, and SEC filings revealed large investment advisors and hedge funds reduced exposure significantly in late 2025.

This suggests institutional demand has not fully returned. Strong bull markets typically require consistent inflows from large investors.

Early Bottoming Signs, But Bull Market Not Confirmed

Bitcoin is showing several early bottoming signals. Spot demand is improving, capitulation appears to be getting absorbed, and technical indicators suggest selling pressure is fading.

However, key confirmation signals are still missing.

Short-term holders remain in loss territory, institutional flows remain weak, and options market structure shows fragile conditions.

For now, Bitcoin’s rally appears more consistent with a relief bounce than a confirmed bull reversal.

A sustained recovery will likely require stronger demand, renewed institutional inflows, and price stability above key resistance levels.

The post Bitcoin Rebounds Toward $70,000, But Is It a Momentary Relief or Slow Bull Run Signal? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The dispute between Aave Labs and the Aave DAO appears to be escalating, with DAO delegates ramping up their hostility after Labs’ “Aave Will Win” proposal requested another $51 million in development funding from the DAO.

On Feb 20, delegate BGD Labs announced its intent to halt its work with the DAO due to Labs’ focus on Aave V4 rather than “a very mature and successful V3.” The decision came after Aave Labs co-founder Stani Kulechov stated in the proposal that “Once V4 is mature, V3 parameters should be gradually adjusted to encourage migration, following the same approach used in past version transitions.”

Marc Zeller, the founder of Aave-Chan Initiative (ACI), another service provider to the Aave DAO, called BGD’s impending departure from the DAO a major change and sold a portion of his $AAVE holdings.

Today, the feud between the DAO and Labs was cranked up a notch after Zeller published a full audit of Labs’ performance in the Aave governance forum, bashing Aave Labs’ product delivery, profitability, and business development (BD).

Zeller referred to Labs’ standalone products, including Lens Protocol, $GHO v1, and Horizon, as “The Product Graveyard,” citing “zero successes.” He went on to point out that even its more successful launches, such as Horizon, which has commanded over $500 million in total value locked (TVL), still resulted in a negative 96% return on investment (ROI), and that Aave’s stablecoin, $GHO v1, depegged and had to be rebuilt by BGD and TokenLogic.

The report went on to criticize Aave Labs’ BD department, noting that Labs was set to work with prominent entities in DeFi and traditional finance like Coinbase’s Layer 2 Base, World Liberty Financial, Apollo, and Mantle.

Morpho emerged as the most notable competitor in these relationships and now serves as the backend of Coinbase’s decentralized lending product, and recently announced a partnership with $800 billion asset manager Apollo Global Management.

While the relationship between the DAO and Labs continues to crack, Aave remains DeFi’s leading protocol by TVL, accounting for more than 28% of the DeFi market with $27.5 billion across all chains.

Meanwhile, Morpho is the second largest lending protocol and sixth largest in DeFi with $5.8 billion.

Despite Aave’s leading position in terms of TVL and brand recognition, its native $AAVE token is trading near multi-year lows at just $122, or a $1.9 billion fully diluted valuation, after reaching as high as $380 in December 2024 and $660 in 2021.

Aave Labs did not respond to The Defiant’s request for comment.

A former contender for governor of California has been banned from Kalshi after betting on his own candidacy last year in violation of insider trading rules, the prediction market platform said on Wednesday.

According to a statement from Kalshi’s head of enforcement, Robert DeNault, the politician bet about $200 on his candidacy for governor of California and posted about it on X, leading to a five-year suspension on the prediction market platform and a $2,000 penalty.

Kalshi did not name the politician, but said he is no longer running for governor and is now running for Congress.

The description appears to fit Kyle Langford, a former Republican turned Democrat who is now running for election to the US House to represent the California’s 26th Congressional District.

In an X post published on May 25, 2025, Langford shared a video of himself placing the bet on Kalshi, putting $98.76 on the odds of him winning.

Kalshi said the account did not withdraw any profits and that the case was reported to the CFTC.

Cointelegraph reached out to Langford for further comment but didn’t receive an immediate response.

Meanwhile, Kalshi said it also handed out penalties to a YouTube editor who traded about $4,000 on YouTube stream markets between August and September 2025 — also violating Kalshi’s insider trading rules, resulting in a two-year penalty and a roughly $20,000 fine.

“Our surveillance systems flagged his near-perfect trading success on markets with low odds, which were statistically anomalous,” said Kalshi, which, with the help of other traders on the platform, identified where he worked and concluded that he likely had access to material non-public information.

While Kalshi didn’t name the YouTube editor, mainstream media have widely reported that to be Artem Kaptur, an employee of the popular YouTuber MrBeast.

Kalshi, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated platform, said it has investigated 200 cases and frozen several flagged accounts. It has more than a dozen active cases.

Earlier this month, Kalshi strengthened its surveillance efforts by establishing a surveillance audit committee and partnering with crypto trading surveillance platform Solidus Labs to “detect, investigate, and address market abuse.”

Those efforts come in response to an uptick in regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets as they enter the mainstream.

US lawmakers introduced a bill last month to restrict trading by government insiders after one Polymarket user made over $400,000 on bets tied to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, placing wagers hours before US forces captured him in Caracas.

CFTC sends strong warning to future violators

On Thursday, CFTC Chair Mike Selig said the agency established a prediction markets advisory to collaborate with industry participants in efforts to catch insider traders.

Selig warned that those engaging in insider trading will face consequences:

“Let me be clear: if you attempt to engage in manipulation, fraud, or insider trading, we will find you and take action.”

Based on the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, Ethereum ($ETH) is mildly undervalued at -5.5%. Bitcoin ($BTC), $XRP ($XRP), and Chainlink ($LINK) remain neutral at -1.4%, -0.1%, and +3.3%, respectively. By contrast, Cardano (ADA) is mildly overvalued, with an MVRV ratio of +6.8%.

Source: Santiment

Bitcoin and the wider crypto market showcase a bullish trend reversal

The past day has seen an upward trend reversal in the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, despite recent bearish momentum and sentiment.

Data shows that the average Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has slightly surpassed its 9-day average, indicating a weak bullish momentum reversal.

$BTC was up 7.78% in the past day to trade at $69,050 as $ETH gained 13.31% to reclaim its $2,000 psychological level. Meanwhile, $XRP and $LINK gained +9.37% and 16.07%, respectively. Uniquely, Cardano has experienced a striking 20.07% upsurge to trade at $0.3115.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Events leading up to the recent crypto rally

Tech company Nvidia recently reported record-breaking earnings driven by demand in artificial intelligence (AI). Due to the strong correlation (98%) of crypto with the S&P 500, the news fueled renewed risk appetite in investors of both stocks and crypto.

Capital rotation from $BTC to altcoins has contributed to their recent rallies as investors seek higher returns from riskier assets. Bitcoin dominance is now at 58-60%, while the Altcoin Season Index reads 34/100, indicating a mixed market for Bitcoin and Altcoins.

This week, Bitcoin ETFs saw $257.7M in net inflows, effectively ending a five-week outflow streak.

Near-term market outlook

At press time, the overall crypto market cap totaled $2.38 trillion, having gained 7.50% in the last 24hours.

Should the current rally hold, the crypto market could test the $2.59T (50% Fibonacci) level. Falling below $2.35T (78.6% Fib) would indicate a loss in momentum, validating a weak bullish theory.