Category: Business

President Trump delivered a primetime address to the nation on July 16, 2026, mixing an economic progress report with a lengthy, controversial announcement about declassified intelligence tied to elections.

Trump opened by touting economic gains under his administration. “Our country is safer, stronger, and far wealthier than it has ever been before,” he said, contrasting it with what he called “the worst inflation in 48 years” at the start of his term.

He cited a recent inflation reading: “This week it was announced that inflation saw the largest monthly decline in more than 6 years.” He also pointed to stock market highs, tax provisions in his “Big Beautiful Bill” eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security, and a drug pricing initiative he calls “Most Favored Nations.” “Drug prices are coming down by 70, 80, and 90%,” he said.

Declassifying Election Intelligence

The core of the speech centered on a set of documents Trump said his administration would begin releasing that night. “I’m announcing the immediate declassification and release of critical intelligence revealing shocking vulnerabilities in our election infrastructure,” he said.

Trump claimed the documents show China “carried out what is believed to be the largest compromise of election data in history,” alleging the country acquired 220 million U.S. voter files. He also alleged that intelligence officials suppressed this information from him and Congress, saying one internal email described efforts to “deliberately massage daily briefings to withhold Chinese briefings regarding the election.”

This claim arrives after federal investigators previously concluded foreign interference had no practical impact on the 2020 election’s outcome, and numerous state audits found no evidence supporting the broader fraud claims Trump has made since his 2020 loss.

Trump also referenced a Department of Homeland Security review he said identified “approximately 278,000 noncitizens who are registered to vote in federal elections,” and alleged a fraudulent voter registration operation in Michigan tied to a 2020 FBI investigation.

Targeting the Media

Trump criticized NBC and ABC for declining to air the speech. “In a rare move, NBC and ABC fake news have both said that they would not cover this speech,” he said, adding, “Fraud like this should mean a revocation of their licenses.”

The Push for the Save America Act

Trump closed by calling on Congress to pass the Save America Act, which would require photo voter ID and proof of citizenship for voter registration, and would largely eliminate mail-in ballots except for cases involving illness, disability, military deployment, or travel.

“This landmark bill requires all voters must show a photo voter ID,” he said, urging Americans to “pick up your phone tomorrow, call your representatives in the House and Senate, and demand they pass the Save America Act without delay.”

Crypto Markets Slip During the Speech

The crypto market pulled back, with total market capitalization falling 1.41% to $2.19 trillion. Bitcoin held relatively steady near $63,450, down 1.95% on the day, while altcoins took a harder hit. Ethereum slipped toward $1,848, XRP fell to $1.08, and Solana dropped to $75, each down roughly 2% to 3%. The Fear and Greed Index sat at 33, still in “Fear” territory, with the Altcoin Season Index at 52 out of 100.

Arthur Hayes reinforced the Ethereum accumulation narrative after Lookonchain reported that he purchased 1,293 $ETH worth approximately $2.48 million.

The transaction followed another notable move, where a separate whale transferred 21.3K $ETH valued at about $40.95 million from Fidelity Custody into a newly created on-chain wallet.

Rather than signaling exchange withdrawals, the transfer reflected capital moving from traditional institutional custody onto decentralized rails.

This shift suggested the holder intended to deploy the assets on-chain or maintain direct custody.

Together, both transactions highlighted growing confidence among large investors despite Ethereum trading below the psychological $2,000 barrier.

Exchange flows stayed mixed despite outflow trend

Ethereum’s spot Netflow data painted a mixed short-term picture while preserving a broader accumulation backdrop.

The latest daily reading showed a net inflow of approximately $5.51 million on 16 July, indicating more $ETH entered exchanges during that session.

Even so, the wider chart revealed that exchange outflows had dominated across most trading sessions over recent months, with repeated negative netflow spikes outweighing isolated inflow periods.

Those persistent outflows suggested investors had continued removing $ETH from trading venues instead of preparing immediate sales.

Recent inflows therefore appeared limited within the broader trend rather than marking a structural shift in market behavior.

If exchange balances continue declining over time, available liquid supply would likely remain constrained, supporting Ethereum’s longer-term supply dynamics.

Whale-sized trades kept dominating spot activity

Spot Average Order Size remained inside the “Big Whale Orders” zone, confirming that large transactions continued dominating Ethereum’s spot market activity.

The indicator suggested institutional participants and high-net-worth investors accounted for a significant share of executed trades rather than retail-sized orders.

This reading aligned closely with the latest purchases from Arthur Hayes and the sizeable transfer from Fidelity Custody to a fresh wallet.

Instead of representing isolated transactions, the activity reflected a broader pattern of whale participation across the market.

Growing involvement from large buyers often improves market depth and reinforces confidence during recovery phases.

Even so, sustained accumulation would still require consistent follow-through before translating into a decisive breakout above key resistance levels.

Can Ethereum finally reclaim $2,000?

At the time of analysis, Ethereum [$ETH] traded near $1,920 after recovering strongly from its early-June low around the $1,564 support level.

Buyers steadily pushed price toward the major $2,000 resistance, although that barrier continued capping advances during the latest session.

The Relative Strength Index climbed to 66.54, while its moving average stood near 58.08. Those readings showed strengthening buying interest without entering overbought territory above 70.

Price also formed higher lows throughout July, reflecting improving market structure after the sharp correction.

Even so, the latest candle closed slightly lower, indicating buyers encountered resistance as $ETH approached $2,000.

If bulls reclaimed that level, price could challenge the next resistance near $2,400. Otherwise, another rejection could draw $ETH back toward the $1,800 support before another recovery attempt.

To sum up, Ethereum’s latest whale activity strengthened the broader accumulation narrative instead of weakening it.

Institutional capital continued shifting onto decentralized rails, while large spot orders remained dominant across the market.

Although the $2,000 resistance still requires confirmation, the improving technical structure suggested buyers could attempt another breakout if accumulation persists and demand continues supporting price.

Final Summary

• Whale accumulation and institutional wallet activity continued supporting Ethereum’s improving market structure.

• $ETH approached $2,000 as buying strength increased, though resistance remained firmly intact.

After consolidating within a narrow range early in July, DeXe [$DEXE] skyrocketed to a new all-time high of $49.40. The rally was driven by the successful rollout of the Dexelization AI integration upgrade, which triggered the move to $ATH.

The upgrade embeds specialized AI agents into the protocol infrastructure, enabling AI and users to collaborate in operation and management. However, the market buzz around it faded after the altcoin reached $ATH, resulting in a rejection. Since then, the altcoin has printed four red candles, closing at new lows each day.

At press time, $DEXE traded around $34, down 9.85% on the daily charts. Over the same period, altcoin volume jumped 58% to $158 million, suggesting intense selling pressure.

$DEXE whales are making moves

Interestingly, after $DEXE began to decline, whales re-entered the market. Spot Average Order Size data from CryptoQuant showed Big Whale Orders for three consecutive days.

When this metric shows whale orders, it suggests increased market participation from the cohort either selling or buying. Notably, the Spot Taker CVD highlighted that these whales have been actively cashing out.

The Spot Taker CVD metric has remained red for five consecutive days, indicating that more sell orders have recently been executed on the spot.

Therefore, it’s most likely that these whales have mostly been closing their positions. Furthermore, the exchange flow also echoed this selling trend. According to CoinGlass data, $DEXE’s netflow has remained positive over the past week.

For example, over the last three days, $33.1 million in $DEXE has entered exchanges, while $26.27 million has left.

As a result, the Spot Netflow climbed to $6.8 million, a trend that has continued as of this writing. A sustained period of positive net flow suggests that sellers are more incentivized to exit the market.

Often, such market conditions have preceded extended market weakness, leading to more losses on price charts.

Is $DEXE at risk of more losses?

$DEXE is currently experiencing strong downward pressure, largely driven by whale bearishness. As a result, downside market momentum strengthened significantly.

At press time, the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) crashed into oversold territory, falling from 77 to 27. At such low levels, the SMI indicated the downside momentum is especially strong.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a bearish crossover, falling from 70 to 58 at press time. This showed that although buyers remain active, sellers managed to retake the market.

Typically, such market conditions have preceded a price drop. Thus, if investors, especially whales, continue to offload, $DEXE could drop below $30. However, if the market manages to hold between $37 and $40, this bearish outlook will be invalidated.

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Final Summary

• DeXe extended its bearish structure, dropping 9.85% to a low of $32 before slightly rebounding.
• The $DEXE market showed weakness, largely driven by bearish whales who have been aggressively selling.

$XRP attracted renewed attention after whales accumulated 70 million $XRP over the past week, reinforcing confidence despite the token’s prolonged consolidation below resistance.

The bullish narrative also gained support after the $XRP Ledger surpassed 8 million activated accounts, highlighting continued network adoption.

Large holders continued increasing their exposure even as $XRP traded inside a well-defined range.

That behavior suggested institutional-scale investors viewed current prices as attractive rather than risky.

Instead of distributing holdings after previous rallies, whales kept absorbing available supply.

Meanwhile, the expanding $XRP Ledger ecosystem reflected growing activity across payments, tokenization, DeFi, and AI-related applications.

Together, stronger network adoption and sustained whale buying reinforced confidence that long-term demand continued strengthening beneath the current price consolidation.

Bullish positioning stayed firmly intact

Derivatives traders continued favoring the upside despite $XRP’s lack of a decisive breakout.

Binance’s top trader positioning remained heavily skewed toward longs, with 77.21% of accounts maintaining bullish exposure.

That left the Long/Short Ratio at 3.39, reflecting sustained confidence among experienced market participants.

However, traders refrained from aggressively adding leverage while $XRP remained below resistance.

Instead, they maintained existing long positions and waited for confirmation from spot markets.

That behavior suggested expectations of continued upside rather than an immediate rally.

However, the elevated long bias also increased the risk of short-term volatility if buyers failed to reclaim higher resistance.

Even with that risk, derivatives sentiment continued aligning with the accumulation trend seen among whales.

Can $XRP reclaim the next resistance?

$XRP recovered from the $1.05 support zone and traded near $1.10, showing buyers continued defending recent lows.

This recovery gradually improved short-term sentiment and kept the broader recovery structure intact.

The daily RSI climbed to 48.64, while its signal line reached 47.74, indicating buying strength continued improving despite remaining below the neutral 50 level.

$XRP also traded within the $1.05–$1.20 range, where repeated higher lows reflected steady demand.

Recent AI forecasts supported a constructive longer-term outlook.

Grok projected a year-end range between $1.80 and $4.50, while Claude estimated $1.50 to $1.90 as the most likely range and suggested prices above $2.50 would require stronger catalysts.

Even so, $XRP would first need to reclaim $1.20 to strengthen the bullish technical outlook.

Where could volatility emerge next?

The Liquidation Heatmap identified several dense liquidity clusters above the current price, making those levels important if buyers extended the recovery.

The largest concentration appeared around $1.12, while additional clusters stretched toward $1.14 and $1.16.

Those areas could attract price because large concentrations of leveraged positions often trigger liquidation-driven volatility.

On the downside, another liquidity pocket remained near $1.10, providing nearby support if sellers regained control.

The heavier liquidity concentration above market price slightly favored an upward liquidity sweep before a larger directional move developed.

Can $XRP clear $1.20 next?

$XRP maintained a constructive outlook as whale accumulation aligned with strong bullish positioning among Binance’s top traders.

Buyers also defended the $1.05 support while the RSI continued recovering toward neutral territory.

These signals favored another attempt at $1.20. If buyers generated stronger spot demand, $XRP could challenge that resistance and target higher liquidity levels.

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Final Summary

• Whale accumulation and network growth continued supporting $XRP despite prolonged price consolidation.

• Buyers defended key support, but reclaiming $1.20 remained essential for further upside.

Bitcoin rose above $64,000 following weaker-than-expected US CPI and PPI data. However, further gains are limited due to simultaneous selling by both long-term and short-term investors.

While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins are also experiencing gains, noteworthy statements have come from the US banking giant Morgan Stanley.

At this point, a Morgan Stanley analyst compared Solana to Ethereum, the largest altcoin.

And here, $SOL has historically been highlighted as a better diversification tool than $ETH.

Speaking to Coindesk, Morgan Stanley investment strategist Denny Galindo argued that Solana has historically been a superior diversification asset compared to Ethereum.

Galindo notes that with the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, followed by Ethereum and Solana ETFs, the question of which digital assets investors should include in their portfolios alongside Bitcoin has come to the forefront.

Galindo also stated that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and $ETH is 0.78 until April 2026, while the correlation between Bitcoin and $SOL is 0.72, explaining that the BTC-$SOL correlation is lower.

According to the analyst, this suggests that Solana is slightly less likely to move in the same direction as Bitcoin. The lower correlation indicates a higher probability of Solana moving independently of Bitcoin, and therefore contributing more to portfolio diversification.

The analyst also notes that Solana’s correlation with the S&P 500 is slightly lower compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Based on these historical correlations, Galindo concluded that $SOL could be a better diversification asset than $ETH. However, the analyst pointed out that Solana has higher price volatility than Ethereum, and investors should consider this risk factor when evaluating the diversification advantage.

*This is not investment advice.

Velvet [$VELVET] has emerged as one of the market’s heaviest losers over the past day, sliding roughly 18% across the session as sellers took control.

Despite the recent pullback, Velvet has held its position as one of the strongest gainers across the market over the past couple of months.

Over the last 90 days alone, the token has outpaced every asset in the top 100 by market capitalization, posting a 571% gain that edged out the next-best performer, Audiera [BEAT], which surged 530% over the same stretch.

Leveraged capital exits Velvet’s Futures market

A leading concern now weighing on Velvet is the capital exodus spreading across its market. The token’s perpetual Futures market shows heavier outflows than inflows, a sign that money is leaving rather than entering.

Capital draining from a market typically signals that investors are pulling their funds out, a move that often reflects bearish sentiment. Roughly $24 million has flowed out of the perpetual market over the past two weeks, pointing to investors heading for the exits.

Rising prices usually breed confidence and draw fresh capital into a market, yet Velvet has seen the opposite, with profit-taking and capital flight dominating the flows and underscoring the prevailing sentiment.

Spot market investors have failed to keep pace with the move, buying comparatively little $VELVET over the same window. The chart shows a total Spot netflow of roughly $847,000.

Spot buying of that scale rarely fuels a rally on its own, leaving little chance that price mounts a meaningful move to the upside off the back of it.

Why Velvet’s decline isn’t bearish control

On the surface, Velvet’s slide and the capital retreat from its perpetual market look like bearish dominance, yet the data underneath tells a more nuanced story.

Chart data shows that even as capital exits mounted over the past two weeks, traders in Velvet’s perpetual market have clung to a bullish outlook.

Funding Rate data, which reveals which side of the market holds control based on who pays the funding fee, shows that longs have stayed in command.

Despite the $2.17 million net outflow recorded over the past 24 hours, the Funding Rate reached 0.0044%, suggesting that the $27.87 million perpetual market balance still sits largely in long positions.

One side, long or short, typically takes command when strong conviction builds that price will swing higher over the short to near term.

In this case, the sentiment holds that Velvet’s decline looks more like consolidation and capital management from traders who have banked massive gains.

This hangs on one key support level

Chart analysis places Velvet a single key level away from either staging a rebound or extending its slide.

That read stems from price trading into an ascending support line that has powered rebounds on multiple occasions, at least three times so far.

A breakdown from this level could send Velvet tumbling once more toward $0.45, where a key demand zone sits and could serve as a rebound catalyst.

Should the ascending support hold instead, Velvet’s rebound could already be taking shape. The support level remains the chart’s decisive area to watch for the next move.

Final Summary

• Velvet fell roughly 18% in a single day, but it remains one of the market’s top performers over the past three months, gaining 571% in 90 days and beating every other top-100 token.
• $24 million left the perpetual market over 2 weeks, yet longs still control the balance.

Kalshi traders now price the odds of the US national average gas price exceeding $4 per gallon by the end of July at 88%, per CNBC’s Wednesday market tracking. The same contract sat at 56% two days ago.

Traders also give a 64% chance that the average crosses $4.10 and less than 5% odds of hitting $4.50. The contract resolves using AAA’s daily national average, which stood at $3.89 on Wednesday, up about three cents from Tuesday. This year’s high was $4.56, set on May 21.

US-Iran strikes push gas-price odds sharply higher

The move followed the end of the US-Iran ceasefire last week and a fresh wave of strikes on Wednesday. US Central Command posted on X that a second round of strikes launched at 3 p.m. ET, targeting what it called “military capabilities Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”

The Strait represents the bottleneck for about a fifth of the world’s oil shipments, and the gas contract of Kalshi has followed events in the waterway very closely through 2026. West Texas Intermediate futures for August delivery closed Wednesday at $79.60 per barrel, up 26 cents on the day, marking the third straight session of gains.

Brent’s September contract settled at $84.95, also up 0.3%. Oil fluctuated to a lesser extent than the Kalshi contract since the difference between pump prices and crude prices is about one week, and Kalshi traders are banking on the difference to catch up by July 31.

Prediction markets read the shock as more than noise

As Cryptopolitan earlier reported, Kalshi’s contracts have already tracked the oil-and-Iran story since May, when the platform priced a 2026 US recession at roughly 32.5% odds as oil crossed $100 per barrel.

A separate Federal Reserve-affiliated study in early 2026 found Kalshi’s forecasts matched Wall Street and New York Fed survey accuracy across multiple Fed decisions and beat professional forecasters on headline CPI. That track record is what makes Wednesday’s 32-point swing worth reading as a signal rather than noise.

Traders repricing from a 56% coin flip to a near-certainty in 48 hours suggests the crowd sees the Strait disruption as durable enough to push through the two-week window before month-end. On July 9, before Wednesday’s strikes, Kalshi traders gave a 75% chance that gas would still be above $3.50 per gallon on Election Day November 3, and 39% odds it would exceed $3.75.

Those Election Day contracts have not moved as sharply in response to this week’s escalation, suggesting the crowd expects the near-term supply shock to peak in July and moderate by fall.

Traders price in a short-term war premium at the pump

Before the US-Iran war began in late February, US gas averaged below $3 per gallon, per AAA. Wednesday’s $3.89 average is roughly 30% above that baseline. The Kalshi crowd’s 88% odds on $4 gas by month-end means the market has effectively priced the war premium as permanent for at least the next two weeks.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains a live target for US strikes past July 31, the same crowd will likely reprice the Election Day contracts higher as well.

Quantum Fears Appear to Be Influencing Buyers, Not Bitcoin Sellers

Bitcoin’s largest holders have not attributed selling activity to quantum computing risks, according to Alex Thorn, managing director and head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, separating the technology debate from recent whale activity.

On July 15, he wrote on X:

“We work with a lot of whales and none has mentioned quantum as a reason for selling.”

The comment suggests that quantum concerns have entered bitcoin’s investment debate without becoming an identified reason for large-holder selling.

Institutional investors appear to be approaching the issue differently. “Have heard quantum fears as a reason not to buy from institutional investors, though,” Thorn revealed, indicating that concerns may be affecting potential buyers rather than existing holders looking to exit positions.

The distinction comes as bitcoin investors continue examining the reasons behind major supply movements from older wallets. Galaxy’s research suggests recent whale activity reflects a broader distribution cycle rather than concerns about future quantum computing threats.

Galaxy’s ‘Great Distribution’ Saw Old Bitcoin Return to Activity

Galaxy Research data show that large amounts of older bitcoin returned to activity during 2024 and 2025, creating one of the biggest waves of dormant supply movement in the network’s history.

“An enormous amount of old BTC came online and moved onchain in 2024 and 2025, rivaled only by 2017,” Thorn stated in another July 15 X post. The head of research labeled this period a “great distribution,” describing the movement of previously dormant coins back into circulation. He noted:

“This ‘great distribution’ is mostly over and 2026 is on pace to see less than half the amount of awakened coins as last year.”

The decline in awakened coins suggests the large wave of older bitcoin movement has slowed. However, on-chain movement alone does not identify whether coins were sold, transferred between wallets, moved by custodians, or used for other purposes.

Bitcoin’s Quantum Challenge Remains Focused on Future Preparation

The quantum computing debate around bitcoin centers on whether future quantum machines could threaten existing cryptographic protections and whether the network can adapt before that becomes a practical risk. Researchers have examined potential vulnerabilities in digital signatures and possible approaches for strengthening blockchain security.

The challenge for Bitcoin developers is preparing for a potential future threat before quantum computers reach the capability required to compromise existing protections. Any major cryptographic transition would require coordination across bitcoin participants.

Thorn remarked:

“Work is being done on quantum and more work is coming, so I think those fears will assuage.”

The comment reflects the view that continued research and preparation could reduce investor concerns over time.

Quantum risk has also appeared in institutional research on digital assets. Coinbase Institutional has described quantum computing as a long-term consideration for bitcoin and discussed possible mitigation strategies for addressing the threat.

The market question now is whether quantum concerns remain a long-term consideration for investors or eventually become a factor in bitcoin positioning. For now, Galaxy’s comments indicate that the issue is influencing some potential buyers while remaining separate from reported whale selling decisions.