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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, now CIO at crypto family office Maelstrom, told Bitcoin Las Vegas attendees that he expects bitcoin to reach $125,000 by year-end as wartime defense spending and new U.S. banking deregulation push fresh liquidity into financial markets.

Key Takeaways:

• Arthur Hayes of Maelstrom targets bitcoin at $125,000 by year-end, citing wartime spending and rising bank lending.
• The Enhanced Supplemental Leverage Ratio, live April 1, could generate $1.3 trillion in new loans per S&P Global.
• Hayes says artificial intelligence (AI) job losses created a credit deflationary event, but U.S. defense spending of $1.5 trillion offsets the drag.

Arthur Hayes at Bitcoin Vegas 2026: BitMEX Co-Founder Flips Bullish on Bitcoin as U.S.-Iran War Shifts Credit Narrative

Arthur Hayes delivered the outlook during a live presentation at Bitcoin Vegas 2026 following a reflective period after ski season, and the remarks cover three interlocking forces he believes are reshaping the credit environment: artificial intelligence-driven job losses, the Federal Reserve transition to incoming chair Kevin Warsh, and a structural shift in how U.S. commercial banks will absorb government debt.

“I’ve turned a bit more bullish, and I’ll explain why,” Hayes said. “It’s time to think about money creation and money printing, and what that means for bitcoin.”

Hayes opened with a candid read of the U.S.-Iran conflict. He said he monitors the spread between the six-month WTI oil futures contract and the front month every morning to strip away political noise and focus on whether commodity flows remain functional. His conclusion was that conditions are stressed but not severe enough to trigger a flight from risk assets.

“Front entries are tending toward the back end, which says that, yeah, sh**’s fu**ed up, but it’s not super-duper fu**ed up, so I can ignore it and continue thinking about other things,” Hayes remarked.

The central argument in Hayes’ presentation is that AI-related job displacement created a quiet credit deflationary event that central banks failed to recognize. He pointed to a Bloomberg chart tracking the Nasdaq, bitcoin, and U.S. tech SaaS exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since the bitcoin all-time high in October.

During that stretch, bitcoin fell roughly 50% while the Nasdaq held flat. The divergence, in his view, traced directly to SaaS companies losing revenue to AI tools that perform equivalent work at a fraction of the cost.

“These stocks got hammered,” Hayes said. “I think that it pointed to a credit deflationary event that was not being recognized by a central bank, so they weren’t printing enough money, and bitcoin followed suit.”

He described AI as the “new subprime,” arguing that knowledge workers who hold high-salary jobs supported by commercial bank loans represent a multi-hundred-billion-dollar credit exposure that has not been priced into bank balance sheets. “I want to fire all of my human accountants and lawyers,” Hayes told the Vegas crowd. He added:

“I can’t wait for Claude to take over. And that is going to have a very bad impact on anyone who has loans out to these folks who earn very, very good salaries.”

Hayes said the calculus shifted when the U.S.-Iran war began in late February. Since then, bitcoin has outperformed both the Nasdaq and SaaS stocks, which he reads as the market repricing from AI deflation to wartime inflation.

“ Bitcoin is now focusing on wartime inflation,” Hayes said. “What is going to change now that there is an explicit admission by the United States and a lot of other countries that they’re on a wartime footing, their defense spending is inadequate, and they need to print more money to build more bombs.”

On the Federal Reserve, Hayes pushed back on the market’s hawkish read of Kevin Warsh. When Warsh was nominated in January, critics flagged his long-standing criticism of the Fed’s large balance sheet. Hayes detailed that those concerns miss a structural constraint: Warsh must work alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to keep the bond market orderly while the government continues selling debt.

“Warsh is not going to get into a fight with Bessent,” Hayes said. “At the end of the day, we’ve issued $38 trillion of debt, and you need to fund the government. The Federal Reserve will do what it’s asked to do, which is make sure the market is orderly so that people can buy this debt.”

Hayes walked through a balance sheet framework showing how the Fed and commercial banks would execute what he called a swap. Banks holding roughly $3 trillion in Fed reserves would trade those reserves for Treasurys and repos, reducing the Fed’s stated balance sheet without removing liquidity from the system. The net effect on dollar liquidity, he said, is neutral.

“He could get up and tell people that he has engineered a smaller Fed balance sheet,” Hayes said of Warsh. “But in reality, for us as investors, all we care about is the net effect, and the net effect is nothing.”

The third piece of the thesis centers on the Enhanced Supplemental Leverage Ratio, a rule change that went live on April 1. The regulation allows large banks, including JPMorgan and Citibank, to hold fewer reserves against assets, enabling them to absorb more Treasurys and repos. Smaller banks gain room to expand construction and industrial loans.

S&P Global estimates the change will produce $1.3 trillion in new lending. Hayes applied a banking multiplier of roughly three times to project approximately $4 trillion in total credit creation, a figure he argues exceeds the credit destruction caused by AI job losses.

“The great thing about bank lending is it has a higher multiplier than central bank lending, about three times,” Hayes explained. The BitMEX co-founder added:

“So roughly $4 trillion could be created, which outweighs the credit destruction from AI job losses. That’s why I’ve turned more bullish on bitcoin.”

Foreign demand for U.S. Treasurys has flattened even as total debt has climbed, Hayes noted, meaning a new buyer must fill the gap at scale. With defense budgets rising and the Trump administration projecting a new Pentagon budget near $1.5 trillion, roughly 50% above the prior allocation, Hayes stressed that the demand side of the loan equation is already visible.

“Monitor construction and industrial loans,” Hayes said. “You can get that data weekly from the Fed. The credit must flow.” His liquidity index, which he said bottomed in November alongside bitcoin, has since recovered. Hayes closed his Vegas speech by reaffirming his year-end target and framing the current moment as the start of a breakout.

“We’ve had some chop. We’ve had a war. Now it’s time to break out,” Hayes said. “That’s why I believe bitcoin is going higher. I think my end-of-year target is around $125,000.”

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins told attendees at Bitcoin Las Vegas 2026 on Monday that the agency is moving to embrace digital asset innovation, end enforcement-driven regulation, and work alongside the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to bring clarity to U.S. crypto markets.

Key Takeaways:

• SEC Chair Atkins confirmed that an innovation exemption for onchain tokenized securities trading is coming within weeks in 2026.
• The SEC and CFTC’s joint token taxonomy guidance is already moving Asian markets, creating premiums on listed digital commodities.
• Senator Lummis expects a full Senate vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act by June 2026, which Atkins called the only way to future-proof policy gains.

SEC Chair Atkins Outlines Reg Crypto Push

Paul Atkins, speaking in a sit-down interview with Perianne Boring, founder and CEO of the Chamber of Digital Commerce, described the agency’s prior posture toward digital assets as a failure. “At first, the SEC’s approach was like an ostrich with its head in the sand, thinking maybe this will all go away,” he said. “And then came the regulation through enforcement.”

That era, Atkins indicated, is over.

The chairman pointed to the SEC’s joint interpretive release with the CFTC as a key turning point. The release, issued earlier this year, applied the 1946 Supreme Court ruling in SEC v. Howey to digital assets, drawing a distinction between the token itself and the surrounding ecosystem of promises made to investors. “The investment contract wasn’t the orange itself, but the whole ecosystem of promises that Mr. Howey made to his investors,” Atkins remarked.

The SEC and CFTC also jointly released token taxonomy guidance at the D.C. Blockchain Summit in April 2026, listing tokens that the SEC considers digital commodities. The release has since drawn price premiums in Asian markets, raising questions from participants about tokens not on the list. Atkins said the guidance is principles-based and not meant as a fixed list. “It’s not about the orange itself, but about the promises around it,” he explained.

Looking ahead, Atkins said the agency plans to release an innovation exemption within weeks that would allow firms to build and trade securitized tokens onchain inside the United States. The SEC is also preparing a framework called Reg Crypto, which would allow fundraising through token sales onchain.

The chairman credited the GENIUS Act, signed into law earlier this year, as the first time the federal government formally recognized stablecoins as a category of digital asset. “The United States, for the first time, recognized the whole genre of digital assets,” Atkins said.

Boring raised a concern shared by many in the industry: What happens to this policy direction if a future administration reverses course? Atkins acknowledged the limits of executive action. “Nothing future-proofs things like a statute,” he said, pointing to the pending Digital Asset Market Clarity Act moving through Congress. Senator Cynthia Lummis, who appeared earlier at the conference, said she expects a Senate vote by June 2026.

When the conversation turned to tokenized equities, Atkins offered his clearest statement of ambition. “The blockchain, the distributed ledger technology, is the most exciting aspect about all this,” he said. He described T+0 settlement as a way to eliminate the risk that builds between the transaction and clearance. “Every second that you have a difference between the transaction time and the clearance and settlement is a risk that the investor and both parties bear,” he told the crowd.

Atkins said incumbent players, including traditional exchanges, are welcome in that future. “We want to let all these different flowers bloom,” he said. The appearance marked the first time a sitting SEC chairman has spoken at the Bitcoin conference.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, says Bitcoin and Ethereum are supported by steady institutional ETF demand and lower leverage, with $BTC expected to break $80,000 to $85,000 short term and ETH targeting $2,800 to $3,000.

Bitget Research Chief Analyst Ryan Lee says Bitcoin and Ethereum remain in a constructive short-term trend supported by steady institutional allocation, with ETF demand, lower leverage, and improving spot market participation keeping both assets on a firm footing. As crypto.news reported, US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged eight consecutive days of net inflows totaling $2.1 billion through April 23, the longest streak since October 2025, with BlackRock’s IBIT capturing approximately 75% of all capital entering the category.

Bitget Research Sees $BTC Breaking $80K to $85K With Sustained Inflows

“The current move is not being driven by aggressive speculative positioning, which gives the rally a firmer base than earlier cycles shaped mainly by retail momentum,” Lee said. In the short term, Lee expects Bitcoin to break above $80,000 to $85,000 with sustained inflows, while Ethereum is expected to follow with gains toward $2,800 to $3,000, driven by ecosystem upgrades and broader adoption. As crypto.news documented, institutional spot ETF inflows and corporate balance-sheet buying have been reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a digital reserve, with analysts noting that Bitcoin and Ethereum have outperformed gold and broad equity indices this year even as geopolitical risk and higher oil prices would typically favor bullion. Lee’s assessment that the rally has a firmer institutional base than prior retail-driven cycles aligns with that data: the eight-day inflow streak absorbed roughly 19,000 $BTC against approximately 2,100 $BTC produced by miners in the same period, meaning institutional demand absorbed about nine times new supply.

Gold and Oil Are Reshaping the Macro Environment for Digital Assets

Lee noted that gold holding near elevated levels reflects continued demand for defensive assets as markets price in geopolitical uncertainty, sticky inflation expectations, and slower policy easing across major economies. He described this as a sign that capital is being distributed across multiple stores of value rather than concentrated in a single hedge. As crypto.news tracked, Bitcoin ETF flows have proven sensitive to exactly that dynamic in 2026, with oil rising toward $100 per barrel earlier in the year triggering risk-off conditions that pulled over $296 million out of spot Bitcoin ETFs in a single week. Lee acknowledged that oil staying elevated adds another layer of macro pressure because higher energy costs can delay rate-cut expectations and tighten liquidity conditions across markets.

What Institutional Absorption Means for Crypto’s Position in Portfolios

Lee said that for digital assets, upside remains linked to whether institutional inflows continue absorbing macro volatility rather than reacting to it. “If that continues, crypto remains positioned as part of broader portfolio construction,” Lee said. As crypto.news noted, Lee has previously argued that ETF flows are not the only factor behind Bitcoin’s performance and that technical and macroeconomic catalysts combine with institutional positioning to drive price action across cycles. The current environment, in which institutional inflows are absorbing supply at nine times the mining rate, represents precisely the kind of structural demand base Lee’s framework identifies as more durable than speculative retail momentum.

Ethereum is beginning to mirror Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, steadily climbing as market confidence strengthens. After weeks of consolidation, price action is now pressing against a key resistance zone, signaling that a breakout could be near. With momentum building and structure turning increasingly bullish, a move is now coming into focus.

Breakout Brewing: Why $ETH’s Structure Signals Imminent Upside

Michaël van de Poppe, in a recent market update, suggested that $ETH is gearing up to follow Bitcoin’s upward path. The analyst, who has outlined his levels in Euros, highlighted a steady and controlled grind higher, with $ETH now closing in on a crucial breakout level around €2,070 ($2,430).

Price action has continued to test this resistance zone without a significant rejection. Such repeated attempts typically weaken a resistance level over time, as sell orders get absorbed and buyers gain confidence. With each retest, the likelihood of a breakout increases, pointing to a potential shift into a stronger bullish phase.

Beyond the immediate barrier, he identified €2,350 ($2,759) and €2,900 ($3,400) as the next key resistance zones to watch. These levels could act as interim checkpoints, but the overall trend suggests that momentum may not stall easily at the first hurdle.

A rejection around €2,350 would likely be considered a weak outcome, especially after nearly three months of consolidation below the current resistance band. Extended consolidation phases often lead to explosive moves, meaning a deeper push toward €2,900 (roughly $3,400) appears more consistent with the buildup seen on the charts.

Momentum across the broader altcoin market could further accelerate if Bitcoin continues its climb toward the $84,000–$87,000 range. In that scenario, Ethereum could not only reach its projected euro-denominated targets but also set the stage for an even more aggressive upside phase.

Ethereum “Movin’ On Up”: Momentum Builds Across Timeframes

Donald Dean shared a bullish outlook on Ethereum, noting that both the daily and weekly charts are aligning for a strong upward move. His analysis highlights improving structure across timeframes, suggesting that $ETH may be entering a phase of sustained momentum.

On the daily chart, price is showing a clean move off a key volume shelf, with the next major pivot and target sitting around $2,970. This level could act as a launchpad for further upside if momentum continues to build. Based on Fibonacci projections, the 1.618 golden ratio points toward a significantly higher target near $6,941.

From a weekly perspective, $ETH is bouncing off strong support, with historical patterns indicating the potential for a 200% move, similar to previous cycles. The 1.618 extension on this timeframe comes in slightly higher at $7,332, placing both daily and weekly projections in close alignment around the $7,000 region, a confluence that strengthens the case for a major upside expansion.