Timing is everything in sports betting.
One of the many reasons why betting on football is so popular is because of the amount of time we get between games to both decide on what we want to bet and to time our entry into the market in order to get the best of the number.
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That might be the case for the final Monday Night Football game of the regular season, since the Rams’ level of interest — whom they play and what plays they may run — might be directly affected by the results of Sunday’s games. So, while normally we post this piece by Monday morning, time is of the essence in order to give ourselves the best chance to win a bet — our timing should mirror that urgency.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
The line is already on the move, going from -8.5 to -8 throughout the week — and even down to -7.5 at some books.
While many good bettors have worried themselves with the various permutations from how Saturday’s results affect Sunday’s games, the situation atop the NFC West seems to have fallen under the radar during Christmas week.
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Sure, some realize that if the Seahawks (-7 at Panthers) and the 49ers (-3 vs. Bears) both win as favorites, they will be playing for the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed in the conference (likely next Sunday night) in Week 18, but it’s next-level thinking to wonder what then happens to the Rams.
The short answer is that they’ll be locked in as a wild-card team, and their final two games will decide what seed they get from No. 5 through No. 7. Admittedly, that’s something to play for, but it’s not the same as putting forward effort in a push for a bye.
Despite not having control of whether they can get the conference’s top spot, the Rams are the top-rated team by rating in the betting market. Quantitatively, by past and current point spreads, if you rated the Rams out of 100, they’d get a grade of 75/100, with no other team in the 70s.
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Essentially, L.A. would be a favorite over any team on a neutral field. However, that’s based on the expectation that the Rams are putting their best foot forward in any given game. With less at stake, there are ways that the Rams’ expected level of play could be lowered.
The first is via personnel. Davante Adams, and any other players listed as questionable, could be given another week to get healthy, with Sean McVay knowing they can win both remaining games without a full roster (though winning by double-digits becomes more difficult).
The second is via play-calling. Whether the Rams go to Carolina, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Green Bay, or Chicago in the first round, they’ll be taking on a team and/or coaching staff who the Rams have played this season or last. Putting anything new or different on tape in their final two games seems like a waste.
The third is how they might treat a fourth-quarter lead. Will the Rams be more interested in running up the score — calling deep throws that put Matthew Stafford and key players in jeopardy of taking extra hits, or will McVay take a more conservative approach calling runs and short passes to churn clock late?
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Basically, if the Rams play like a team rated in the 60s instead of at the high point of their rating, the Falcons should have ample opportunity to cover, even in a loss.
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Atlanta has a say in the result, too, with numerous players and coaches playing for a job next season. As 7.5-point home underdogs, even to the league’s top-rated team, the Falcons aren’t getting much credit in the betting market. A 6-9 record and an early elimination from playoff contention will do that, but here’s a list of games that Kirk Cousins has started with both Bijan Robinson and Drake London available to him:
That’s it, that’s the list.
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Cousins isn’t the future (that’s supposed to be Michael Penix Jr.), but he’s the better option for getting the most out of the Falcons’ offense right now. Meanwhile, in a similar twist, the Falcons’ defense is just about as healthy as they were in Week 1, with only cornerback Mike Hughes doubtful for Monday.
A healthy version of the Falcons, favored to be a playoff team before the season, is at least an average NFL team. And outside of a poor second half against the Seahawks, their play has reflected that, going 3-2 since Cousins took over for the injured Penix.
Come what may on Sunday, the Falcons should be willing to produce an output better than market expectation on Monday night, and with the possibility that the stakes are lowered for L.A., betting that outcome against the spread now is advised.
Pick: Falcons +8
Player props
QB Matthew Stafford longest pass completion under 38.5 yards (-115)
Cousins isn’t the only significant presence to get in the fold in the last five games for Atlanta. Defensive centerpiece Divine Deablo missed time midseason, but in the five games since he’s been back, the Falcons have only allowed two receptions of 35-plus yards on 173 opponent pass attempts (1.2%). At that rate, if any opposing quarterback has 35 attempts, there’s a 40% chance (implied odds of +150/-150) he’ll connect on a deep pass.
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Of course, Stafford’s not any average quarterback, but he’s only had four passes of longer than 38 yards since starting the season with three in four games. With three of those four going to Puka Nacua, we’re betting on former Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris to make sure his defense pays full attention in not letting the Los Angeles star get a full head of steam running through the Atlanta secondary.
TE Kyle Pitts over 5.5 receptions (+115)
Even with London’s return last week, Cousins didn’t stop throwing it to Pitts, with seven connections on nine targets. That makes it 31 catches on 39 looks in the last four games for Pitts with Cousins at the helm. If the Falcons are trailing, as the point spread suggests will likely be the case, then Cousins should be busy and often looking Pitts’ way.
WR Konata Mumpfield over 27.5 receiving yards (-115)
With Adams sitting out last week’s game in Seattle, Mumpfield emerged as the de facto No. 2 receiver for Stafford. And while Mumpfield had a modest three receptions for 40 yards, he saw eight targets sent his way, quadrupling the rookie seventh-rounder’s season high. With Adams unlikely to play, there should be more than enough targets for Mumpfield to get over this yardage total.
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Anytime touchdown
TE Terrance Ferguson (+270)
Not that Ferguson, who scored last week, needs the extra narrative bump, but if part of the Rams’ plan to get to full speed for the playoffs is to get their young players fully confident, we could see another end zone target going the rookie’s way. While Mumpfield’s snaps go up without Adams, Ferguson moves up the red-zone target hierarchy without the league’s receiving touchdown leader because of his combination of size and athleticism.
TE Kyle Pitts (+200)
Let’s hope that London plays, even if he’s still compromised by a lingering knee injury that might have been the reason he caught just three of eight targets for only 27 yards in Arizona last week.
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Why? Because London, one of the league’s best red-zone receivers, draws attention from opposing defenses that opens things up for the other pass-catchers. When you have another sizable option in Pitts, who is a mismatch for any of the Rams’ safeties or linebackers, you don’t need to force the ball to London when he’s doubled in the red zone.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
